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The Habs Cup Contention Window Can Begin This Year

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Old
01-13-2014, 08:34 PM
  #126
Lshap
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Originally Posted by AH View Post
I hope this thread is a joke...
A different opinion is called a "Discussion".

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01-13-2014, 08:34 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Chris Cutter View Post
I'm not sure if Eller's hit his peak, he's vaguely inconsistent and he showed at the start of the season that he can be more than a 45-50 pts guy.
If you put Eller with inconsistent player, then he'll surely be inconsistent. He's still a youngster. Unless they are some seriously talented guys (like PK), then they need stability. Otherwise they will be inconsistent.
I mean, Eller will not score 50 pt by playing with Prust one night, then Briere, Bourque, Moen, and sometimes with Galy.
He's not an established veteran like Plekanec.

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Old
01-13-2014, 09:00 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
A different opinion is called a "Discussion".
OK...

The premise of the OP is well..ummm...I dont even know what to say...

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Old
01-13-2014, 09:32 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
We don't have the depth to trade. We simply can't do it. Look at the holes we have now. The core guys we have aren't available. Youth and vets are. DD (should somebody want him) should be shipped out. But the guys we have who are in their prime we have to keep and that goes for Galchenyuk too.
We have plenty of guys other teams would love. The question is whether we're willing to trade them. Subtract the untouchables - Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk - and then subtract those with insufficient to zero value -- DD, Briere, Bourque, Gionta, Bouillon, Diaz, Prust, Murray, White, Moen and Parros. That's 15 players who won't be traded, either because they're too valuable to us or not valuable enough to other teams.

That leaves our middle to upper-middle players: Bournival, Eller, Gorges, Emelin and Gallagher, plus the always-valuable backup, Budaj. And then there are the two age-sensitive top guys, Markov and Plekanec. That's eight players who other teams want, and who Bergevin would discuss trading. Dangle any of these eight players and other GMs will listen. Want to get a top forward? At least one of these eight will be in the deal, in addition to a pick and a prospect. Losing Markov or Plekanec would leave a big hole, but trading one might be the only way to fill an even bigger hole.

Habs have a wealth of middle to upper-middle talent in their prospect pool. Our future 2nd and 3rd line depth will be great. But I don't see any way to get top-line talent except through sucking it up and making a big trade. A UFA like Vanek would be ideal, but is unlikely.

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01-13-2014, 09:33 PM
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AH View Post
OK...

The premise of the OP is well..ummm...I dont even know what to say...
Good for you if you are wiser than everyone else, but plenty of responses were positive.

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Old
01-13-2014, 09:35 PM
  #131
Lshap
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Originally Posted by AH View Post
OK...

The premise of the OP is well..ummm...I dont even know what to say...
Figure out what to say and make your case. These threads are great conversation-starters.

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Old
01-13-2014, 09:39 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Ovechkin's peak goal total: age 22
Sharp's peak goal total: age 26
Crosby's peak goal total: age 22
Perry's peak goal total: age 25

Kunitz is an interesting case, his highest pre-Crosby scoring level was 27, but otherwise he's the guy at the extreme right of the bell curve.

Otherwise, yeah, guys tend to peak around age 24-25. That doesn't mean they become immediately terrible at 26; usually, the decline is gentle until sometime in their thirties.
Spin it anyway you want
It doesnt change the fact that the NHL's leading goal scorers at this moment in time ALL say HI!!

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01-13-2014, 09:44 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
We have plenty of guys other teams would love. The question is whether we're willing to trade them. Subtract the untouchables - Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk - and then subtract those with insufficient to zero value -- DD, Briere, Bourque, Gionta, Bouillon, Diaz, Prust, Murray, White, Moen and Parros. That's 15 players who won't be traded, either because they're too valuable to us or not valuable enough to other teams.

That leaves our middle to upper-middle players: Bournival, Eller, Gorges, Emelin and Gallagher, plus the always-valuable backup, Budaj. And then there are the two age-sensitive top guys, Markov and Plekanec. That's eight players who other teams want, and who Bergevin would discuss trading. Dangle any of these eight players and other GMs will listen. Want to get a top forward? At least one of these eight will be in the deal, in addition to a pick and a prospect. Losing Markov or Plekanec would leave a big hole, but trading one might be the only way to fill an even bigger hole.

Habs have a wealth of middle to upper-middle talent in their prospect pool. Our future 2nd and 3rd line depth will be great. But I don't see any way to get top-line talent except through sucking it up and making a big trade. A UFA like Vanek would be ideal, but is unlikely.
I know this may be nitpicking but zero value for Prust? really?
Ask the rangers if they'd take him back.
To a lesser extent, i'd say that the same thing goes for Moen the way he's been playing of late

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Old
01-13-2014, 09:51 PM
  #134
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Defensively they're getting close.

Offensively they need more punch. When this team is "on" they generate a lot of scoring chances and they are very hard to score against. They just can't bury their chances. They don't have that killer instinct yet to put teams away.

At least for a while they had a lethal PP, but other teams have figured that out too.
But hey, you make the playoffs, ride a hot goalie and anything can happen. I just don't have them in the contender category yet personally. They lack that finish.

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Old
01-13-2014, 10:06 PM
  #135
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
We have plenty of guys other teams would love. The question is whether we're willing to trade them. Subtract the untouchables - Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk - and then subtract those with insufficient to zero value -- DD, Briere, Bourque, Gionta, Bouillon, Diaz, Prust, Murray, White, Moen and Parros. That's 15 players who won't be traded, either because they're too valuable to us or not valuable enough to other teams.

That leaves our middle to upper-middle players: Bournival, Eller, Gorges, Emelin and Gallagher, plus the always-valuable backup, Budaj. And then there are the two age-sensitive top guys, Markov and Plekanec. That's eight players who other teams want, and who Bergevin would discuss trading. Dangle any of these eight players and other GMs will listen. Want to get a top forward? At least one of these eight will be in the deal, in addition to a pick and a prospect. Losing Markov or Plekanec would leave a big hole, but trading one might be the only way to fill an even bigger hole.

Habs have a wealth of middle to upper-middle talent in their prospect pool. Our future 2nd and 3rd line depth will be great. But I don't see any way to get top-line talent except through sucking it up and making a big trade. A UFA like Vanek would be ideal, but is unlikely.
Dealing away a Gallagher or an Eller just doesn't make sense to me. We've just got so many holes to plug. Of course other teams would want him, but if we're going to win we've got a lot of work to do. We need a couple of wingers a solid #2 or 3 blueliner...

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Old
01-13-2014, 10:51 PM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Dealing away a Gallagher or an Eller just doesn't make sense to me. We've just got so many holes to plug. Of course other teams would want him, but if we're going to win we've got a lot of work to do. We need a couple of wingers a solid #2 or 3 blueliner...
Even though he's been terrible, I'd add Emelin to that group, it just doesn't make sense to trade away what you need (Emelin, Gallagher and Eller being what we need.)

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Old
01-13-2014, 10:55 PM
  #137
NotProkofievian
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Dealing away a Gallagher or an Eller just doesn't make sense to me. We've just got so many holes to plug. Of course other teams would want him, but if we're going to win we've got a lot of work to do. We need a couple of wingers a solid #2 or 3 blueliner...
This is my thinking. We have a lot of good stuff, sure. But we really only have one of everything. Eller might be tradeable if we think Galchenyuk can take over at center. But the rest of the valuable players that we would be interested in trading would simply make a hole to fill another. If we trade Gallagher, who do we trade him for? A dman? Doesn't that make our wings pretty weak? Same thing for Gorges or Emelin.

Our upgrade can be accelerated when we have too much of one thing. If Tinordi, Beaulieu, and a couple others graduate in fine form and soon, then we can definitely accelerate things, but until then most moves would be spinning our wheels, IMO.

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Old
01-14-2014, 01:09 AM
  #138
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I think our status at the moment is playoff team.

The pecking order is:

Contender
Playoff Team
Bubble team

But this years playoffs could be strong if we can stay healthy. Looking forward, maybe 1-2 seasons, we could have a much grittier and larger team, as well as having some new injection of offensive skill in young players, while our core will be intact and nowhere close to getting too old. I'm very excited by the future, and while we have plenty of holes and are not a contender now, the window may begin as early as next season, provided key moves are made (both internally and from FA/trades; nothing major is needed either)

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Old
01-14-2014, 02:26 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by BubbleGumPlant View Post
The McDonaugh trade is easier to digest if you think of the fact that draft picks are not locks to become NHL players. Save yourself from cancer and just pretend that that 12th overall pick was a bust, which happens more often than not.
Beaut.

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Old
01-14-2014, 04:53 AM
  #140
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The second article had a sampling of 11 players. Average peak age was 27. No way to dance around the average, though the author tried.

The methodology of the first article was not very sound. Here are the issues that I have with its methods and assumptions:

1) The assignment of the 45% rate for a minor league point vs. a major league point isn't justified by the study. This arbitrary conversion percentage could severely skew an accurate appraisal of player performances.

2) Many career minor leaguers have been included in this study as ALL players whose careers went from the ages of 21-29 who played in the NHL and/OR the two top minor leagues were included. The minor leaguers (and mostly minor leaguers) aren't relevant to drawing conclusions about NHL players. Assuming that a career NHLer and a career minor leaguer performances relative to "peaks" are the same isn't necessarily true.

3) The exclusion of players who weren't in the sample because they were not in the NHL, AHL or IHL by age 21 would have eliminated many college and foreign players.

4) It doesn't appear that the study included the performances of players who played beyond age 29. As such, the average peak age would be lower than it actually was. Players do peak over the age of 30.

Correct me if I'm wrong on any of my observations.

No doubt, peak performance for most players occurs in their 20s. However, given the limited shelf life of hockey players the difference between 24 and, perhaps 27.something is a huge one.

I'm sure the exact average peak age of goal scoring, point scoring, etc. could be pretty readily determined, but the methods used by the writers of these two articles are not sufficient to make those determinations, imo.

I appreciate that you provided your sources.


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Old
01-14-2014, 05:46 AM
  #141
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I don't think we are all that amazing right now. People are all surprised and shocked when we beat a team like Chicago, because we have not established a great reputation standing up to quality teams.

I also think that our "declining core players" like Markov and Plekanec will decline rapidly at all. Markov plays a very cerebral game. He is not all that mobile right now, but it doesn't matter because he is only out of position for good cause, and rarely ever makes a bad pass, has a great stick and can still play the body. His game is not one that relies on speed or tremendous physicality that are more heavily tested with age. As for Plekanec much of what applies to Markov also applies. Being the great two way forward that Pleky is, has little do with dominant speed or physicality, he plays smart hockey, has a great stick and is always in position against the top lines. He will lose a step maybe in the next 5 years but I don't think it'll affect the kind of shut down role that he so well plays for us now.

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01-14-2014, 05:57 AM
  #142
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A dilemma.

If the habs play a solid month of hockey like Saturday night, a case could be made. They played a helluva lot more dominant than in that win streak before December.

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01-14-2014, 06:49 AM
  #143
Lshap
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Dealing away a Gallagher or an Eller just doesn't make sense to me. We've just got so many holes to plug. Of course other teams would want him, but if we're going to win we've got a lot of work to do. We need a couple of wingers a solid #2 or 3 blueliner...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Even though he's been terrible, I'd add Emelin to that group, it just doesn't make sense to trade away what you need (Emelin, Gallagher and Eller being what we need.)
Believe me, I don't want to trade any of those guys. The loss of any of them opens up a new hole which would then have to be filled. I brought it up as an example of how the Habs (and us fans) have to accept the tough choices that are necessary in building a contending team. Look at recent Cup-winners. All have been willing to make the Big Move, either in a trade involving quality roster players, or in paying for a top UFA. I'm not saying to go full-Holmgren, but maybe a little Burke balls stirred into Bergevin's broth is the way to go.

We're kidding ourselves if we think Montreal will magically become elite by passively waiting for prospects, and we're delusional if we think any team will trade their quality forward for a package of our leftovers. Like it or not, no quality UFA will listen unless we offer huge money, and no team will talk to us unless we dangle a player they actually want.

Would losing Eller/Gallagher/Bournival hurt? Of course. But it's easier to replace a 2nd or 3rd line player than it is to find the 1st-line player we might be able to get. I'm hoping it doesn't come to that, but I won't dump on Bergevin for taking some risks.

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01-14-2014, 06:56 AM
  #144
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I still feel like this team is missing a gamebreaker. A forward that can beat score you the goal in those tight playoff games. Maybe Paccioretty or Galchenyuk can become that....hopefully. To me until that happens we are not a serious contender.

I agree with the OP however. The time is coming. I'm especially happy that we are grooming our young D-men so patiently down in Hammy. This is something the good teams always do and it will pay dividends.

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01-14-2014, 07:09 AM
  #145
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I still feel like this team is missing a gamebreaker.
it's a bummer that acquiring said player at the deadline will cost us a lot. I'm not optimistic. If we could pry Moulson out of Buffalo I'd be delighted. He's a perfect hybrid of a power grit forward mixed with good hands. Looking at the cap we'd probably have to shed at least 700K though

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Old
01-14-2014, 07:26 AM
  #146
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
Believe me, I don't want to trade any of those guys. The loss of any of them opens up a new hole which would then have to be filled. I brought it up as an example of how the Habs (and us fans) have to accept the tough choices that are necessary in building a contending team. Look at recent Cup-winners. All have been willing to make the Big Move, either in a trade involving quality roster players, or in paying for a top UFA. I'm not saying to go full-Holmgren, but maybe a little Burke balls stirred into Bergevin's broth is the way to go.

We're kidding ourselves if we think Montreal will magically become elite by passively waiting for prospects, and we're delusional if we think any team will trade their quality forward for a package of our leftovers. Like it or not, no quality UFA will listen unless we offer huge money, and no team will talk to us unless we dangle a player they actually want.

Would losing Eller/Gallagher/Bournival hurt? Of course. But it's easier to replace a 2nd or 3rd line player than it is to find the 1st-line player we might be able to get. I'm hoping it doesn't come to that, but I won't dump on Bergevin for taking some risks.
If we're going for it now...

DD, Gionta, Bourque, Briere, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Fucale, De La Rose, future picks, Murray, Bouillion... that's pretty much what we have to trade. Some of this nobody is going to want but others have value.

I'm still of the mindset that we should deal DD if we want to win anything and open up more ice for the others. Murray and Bouillion nobody is going to want but they need to be replaced. Briere we should find a home for even if its a giveaway just for the cap space.

Thing is, we'll have to find rebuilding teams with good players to deal. Calgary and Buffalo don't have this. Maybe the Islanders, Winnipeg, Oilers, Jets, Columbus, NJ, Florida...

Going to be tough to get a great player from a team like say... LA or Anaheim as they're contenders now.

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01-14-2014, 08:23 AM
  #147
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Do we want to make a go now or take a step back, trade a few vets and built this team into a force in 3 years? If the model is the Hawks then we should wait.

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01-14-2014, 08:48 AM
  #148
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Do we want to make a go now or take a step back, trade a few vets and built this team into a force in 3 years? If the model is the Hawks then we should wait.
I agree, MB indicated before that he's going to build through the draft. We're close, we have GREAT building blocks in Chuckie, PK, Price, Patches, ect. Be patient it'll come soon enough, just need to get rid of dead weight and stopgaps.

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01-14-2014, 08:55 AM
  #149
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yep. the past is always glorious, the future is always bright... it is today that somehow always mediocre with the Habs.

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01-14-2014, 09:05 AM
  #150
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no... they're not contender

and I wont waste my time(once again) explaining why
Bad answer to a very thoughtful OP. Really. Come on man.

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