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Time To Right a Fundamental Issue That Has Been Present Since Nov.19 2011

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Old
01-14-2014, 09:50 AM
  #126
LegionOfDoom91
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Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
If you gut the team and trade for a guy with a massive contract like Weber and he got hurt like Pronger did it would be a franchise crushing disaster. It's not worth the risk, and thankfully Simmonds is the only important player on the team who still doesn't wear a visor.
Well I wouldn't make the trade because it would be counterproductive in my eyes. We'd strengthen our defensive corps while weakening our forward core.

The risk of him getting injured wouldn't come in play though when considering a deal. It's a contact sport injuries can happen to just about anybody at any moment. A GM would get no where in this business if you had that mindset.

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01-14-2014, 09:57 AM
  #127
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You can argue that, but in hockey where making the playoffs basically turns you into a 50/50 shot at winning, that's a huge deal.
We haven't won a cup in 40 years...

Also, go ahead and show me some 2nd + 3rd rounders that actually became players for the Flyers. I would love to see them. While your at it, show me a guy in the past 10 years who was a mid-late round pick that is an NHL player outside of Zac Rinaldo.

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01-14-2014, 10:05 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by R3M1N1SC3 View Post
We haven't won a cup in 40 years...

Also, go ahead and show me some 2nd + 3rd rounders that actually became players for the Flyers. I would love to see them. While your at it, show me a guy in the past 10 years who was a mid-late round pick that is an NHL player outside of Zac Rinaldo.
I wasn't speaking about the Flyers directly. But the % of somebody drafted outside of the 1st making it to the NHL drops to like the 2-3%, You feel that everybody else succeeds at drafting late because lets face it, its 29 teams vs 1 in that comparison. Honestly every team drafts pretty crappy outside of the 1st.

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01-14-2014, 10:06 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by R3M1N1SC3 View Post
We haven't won a cup in 40 years...

Also, go ahead and show me some 2nd + 3rd rounders that actually became players for the Flyers. I would love to see them. While your at it, show me a guy in the past 10 years who was a mid-late round pick that is an NHL player outside of Zac Rinaldo.
And they've been to the cup finals twice and the conference finals like 5 times? and the playoffs 18 times.

I know winning the cup is the final goal, but there isn't a special formula to guarantee a cup, most of it is luck and hot players. You can't predict it, you built the best team you can to get into the playoffs and from that point on, its pretty much a crap shoot (and a hot goalie)

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01-14-2014, 10:09 AM
  #130
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OK, outside of Giroux, Carter, and Richards the 1st rounders are either

A) Unknowns as of right now
B) Miserably failed
C) Mediocre at best

The 2nd and 3rd rounders are absolutely non-existent. If you don't believe me, you can check the draft history.

The problem, imo, is that most teams will at least hit on a couple players every year in the draft. Whether they are guys for the AHL or NHL will always remain to be seen, BUT - the Flyers have had multiple drafts which you can completely just "thow away". Meaning, absolutely nobody panned out or amounted to anything really.
The only way you can deduce success is in comparison with the rest of the NHL.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1395481

Now for the Flyers figures in the same time span:

1-30:

200 GP: 73.33% 400 GP: 60% 700 GP: 53.33% All-star: 33.33%

31-60:

200 GP: 23.08% 400 GP: 23.08% 700 GP: 15.38% All-star: 7.69%

61-90:

200 GP: 25.00% 400 GP: 8.33% 700 GP: 8.33% All-star: 0%

So the Flyers 1st round drafting is very much above average.
The Flyers 2nd round drafting is slightly above average.
The Flyers 3rd round drafting is ~average (2 categories above average, 2 below.)

Ofc this does not factor in recent drafts.

But from 05-11:

1st round: Downie, Giroux, JVR, Sbisa, Couturier... non of them are misses. 5/5 should play 400 games in nothing untoward happens, all are NHL contributors.

2nd round: Nodl, Ratchuk, Bodrov, Marshall. 1 of the 4 will play 200 NHL games... circa average for 2nd rounders.

3rd round: Bartulis, Matsumoto, Klotz (urgh), Bourdon, De Serres, Morrison, Bertilsson, Chaput, Cousins. Not the best group... but 4/9 have played in the NHL... and Cousins almost certainly will at some point... the guys from 09-11 are also all 23 and under... considering the average NHL career begins at 22, and it is just as common for a career to start at 24 as it is 19 it is likely the games played numbers in this group improve significantly.

After the first round the figures for getting a good player are low, and the Flyers are ~average to above average in that area, the fact the have only had 4 2nd rounders and 5 first rounders in 7 years is the bigger problem, and that a lot of the guys who have gone on to play a large number of games in the NHL they traded before giving them a real chance.

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01-14-2014, 10:24 AM
  #131
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5 first rounders in 7 years is the bigger problem, and that a lot of the guys who have gone on to play a large number of games in the NHL they traded before giving them a real chance.
I think that pretty much hits the nail on the head.

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01-14-2014, 10:30 AM
  #132
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The Flyers constantly trade their 2nd rounder and the Pronger trade cost them Sbisa (a 1st round pick) and then their 1st rounder in the following year.

Again, its an argument that can be made over and over again and there is almost no right or wrong, but that is the Flyers philosophy, stay competitive, if that means trading your #1 pick for somebody and they think its the right move, they will.

The Flyers have stunk over the last few years in the later rounds and it has hurt, but overall as a team, they have been a pretty good drafting team....when they've had picks.

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01-14-2014, 10:31 AM
  #133
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btw: Great work on that post. Must have taken you quite a long time to compile all that info.

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01-14-2014, 10:32 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by R3M1N1SC3 View Post
btw: Great work on that post. Must have taken you quite a long time to compile all that info.
Lol we can tell you are new here. That's all Appleyard does.


Also, the Flyers are getting close to where they can start looking to trade picks. They need a few more forward prospects and they will have a nice prospect pool. If they don't trade this years away, I think they grab a forward, or Haydn Fleury(my choice!!)

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01-14-2014, 10:39 AM
  #135
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The fundamental issue on this team is that WE CAN'T DRAFT! The players we do draft only stick around for a few years before we give up on them and ship them out.

When this happens, you sign 35+ players like Lecavalier/Streit to 5 million dollar contracts. Lecavalier = done. Straight up, it should be Giroux, Schenn, and Couturier down the middle. Lecavalier is not a winger, period. Let the young guys get the playing time. Also, instead of signing Streit it would've allowed Gustafsson / Lauridsen / etc to get more playing time.

It all comes down to Snyder's inability to accept the fact that the team just "isn't good". Let the team be what they are, suck. Accept the results and draft accordingly. Stop reaching for these blockbuster trades and garbage FA signings.

I can't even think of the last defensemen we drafted that is actually a top-4 and still on the team. Also, most of the forwards are just...gone. Let's take a quick look:

Richards/Carter = Gone
JVR = Gone
Downie (1st rnd) - Gone and back again
2010/2009 drafts = Totally irrelevant
Sbisa = Gone
Kevin Marshall - 2nd round = bust
Three 2nd rounders in 06' = ALL busts (Andreas Nodl, Mike Ratchuk, Denis Bodrov)
Bartulis (3rd round) = Gone
2004 = One of the worst drafts EVER
Joni Pitkanen = Gone
Jeff Woywitka WHO???
Sharp = Gone
Justin Williams = GONE
Maxime Ouellet WHO???

----------

I'm not saying that every team drafts to 100% accuracy, but my goodness the Flyers are TERRIBLE at drafting. I'm not sure who is/has been in charge of this process, but they need to GO.

Granted, there have been some good FA signings here and there (Briere and Roenick come to mind) but never enough to surpass the inevitable shortcomings of the team. It's been way too long since we've had a homegrown franchise defensemen/goalie.

If the Flyers are out of this thing come trade deadline, we need to sell hard. Trade away Timonen to a contender. Consider moving Hartnell/Coburn/Mez. Accept the fact that we are NOT winning the cup this year. It's not happening with this team.

If you look at the teams that are winning championships, they are teams that have drafted well. Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Boston. Granted, some of those teams "sucked" there way into #1 overall picks, but it is what it is. Crosby/Malkin are generational talents. Toews and Kane are generational talents. What is the Flyers answer to these guys?
I am not really sure how you can say the Flyers are terrible at drafting. Someone earlier posted stats about draft picks playing in the NHL and showed Flyers are actually one of the best drafting teams. Now you can blame the Flyers about how theyve handled the picks but I think you are going a little overboard here. They have had pretty good success in the first round.

Flyers are 1 point behind 5th place and a first round matchup with the Canadians, granted there is a ton of hockey left to play, but I am scared if you think Flyers should give up and tank the season and build for the future when you say they are so bad at drafting. But lets say the Flyers fall off and are in the 10-13 slot then sure try to trade off guys you want. Kimmo is a rental player, what is the best you are going to get for him? Maybe a late first? I hate to tell you Mez wont get you anything other than a late round pick if you are lucky who is also a rental. Who are you going to get for Hartnell? He is worth more to the Flyers than any other team, shopping him around with his contract, I would guess you aren't getting anything close to value and will be a bad contract if anything. Coburn would get you a solid return. But last season they couldn't get the 7th overall pick for him. Do you know how hard it would be to replace coburn with a guy with a better contract and his level of play?

As far as comparing Chicago, Penguins, Detroit, and Boston to the Flyers is a bit silly. For a while the Flyers were trying to contend for a cup, playing the playoffs and having a shot year in and year out. Where was Chicago and Pitt? They were bad for many many many years. Then you point out Boston. Yes boston has a great team. But they have 1 cup win since what 1972. Is that really all that different from the Flyers? Detroit has been a great team for a long time and yes it would be nice to have their recent cups.

So please calm down. Everyone here would love nothing more than a Flyers stanley cup win, everyone is frustrated that we havent had a cup but at least we have had a chance. I know its scary to say but as long as Homer doesn't go nuts in the offseason the Flyers have a good young core to build for the future

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01-14-2014, 10:55 AM
  #136
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Originally Posted by R3M1N1SC3 View Post
btw: Great work on that post. Must have taken you quite a long time to compile all that info.
I have most of the core stuff on spreadsheets! Especially draft stuff... it took quite a long time when I originally did the whole NHL from 90-04 (like 2 evenings, and I 'cheated' and copied the data in and used IF and sort IF formulas etc on excel to weed out the data I wanted then checked it all over to correct the mistakes excel seemingly always manages to throw up. Would have taken forever if it was manual input.) but every now and then I just add a new sheet to it... usually Flyers related ones!

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01-14-2014, 11:00 AM
  #137
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Appleyard is the resident statician.

I really think the flyers board is the best on HF. We have a character for every need.

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01-14-2014, 11:04 AM
  #138
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Appleyard is the resident statician.

I really think the flyers board is the best on HF. We have a character for every need.
As well as the best fans in hockey

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01-14-2014, 11:13 AM
  #139
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One of the Flyers trades that I think gets overlooked a lot is the Seidenberg trade. People talk about the Sharp trade all the time but nobody really talks about Seidenberg. The trades were pretty similar. Both were later draft picks, and late bloomers who played parts of 3 seasons split with the Flyers and Phantoms. Sharp gets more attention because he's a goal scorer and we got crap in return for him but we got Nedved at the end of his career for Seidenberg and he turned out to be a disaster in "The Season" where he was -20 in just 21 games played!

Can you imagine having him playing with Kimmo on the top pairing for the last 5 years? He's a player capable of logging 23-24 minute a game, can play on the PP, is a good PKer and is good at both ends of the ice at even strength.

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01-14-2014, 11:29 AM
  #140
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While your at it, show me a guy in the past 10 years who was a mid-late round pick that is an NHL player outside of Zac Rinaldo.
I have two, Sergei Bobrovsky & Matt Read. While they weren't drafted but signed as undrafted free agents it still took scouting to find them considering both of them didn't have much hype leading up to their signings.

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01-14-2014, 11:34 AM
  #141
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One of the Flyers trades that I think gets overlooked a lot is the Seidenberg trade. People talk about the Sharp trade all the time but nobody really talks about Seidenberg. The trades were pretty similar. Both were later draft picks, and late bloomers who played parts of 3 seasons split with the Flyers and Phantoms. Sharp gets more attention because he's a goal scorer and we got crap in return for him but we got Nedved at the end of his career for Seidenberg and he turned out to be a disaster in "The Season" where he was -20 in just 21 games played!

Can you imagine having him playing with Kimmo on the top pairing for the last 5 years? He's a player capable of logging 23-24 minute a game, can play on the PP, is a good PKer and is good at both ends of the ice at even strength.
I honestly can't even complain about it. He really never showed much here & didn't really get it together until late into his career in which we saw him get bounced around a lot of teams. Credit to Boston for getting him at the right time but I honestly can't fault any of the other teams that gave up on him including the Flyers.

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01-14-2014, 11:35 AM
  #142
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I have two, Sergei Bobrovsky & Matt Read. While they weren't drafted but signed as undrafted free agents it still took scouting to find them considering both of them didn't have much hype leading up to their signings.
That's cheating! LOL. I will give you Matt Read - but they gave up on Bob way too fast.

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01-14-2014, 11:37 AM
  #143
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I wonder what it would take to get Ehrhoff from Buffalo? He could be a nice addition with a cheap cap hit although he has a long contract. Maybe a couple of mid round picks because of his contract length?

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01-14-2014, 11:39 AM
  #144
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The risk of him getting injured wouldn't come in play though when considering a deal. It's a contact sport injuries can happen to just about anybody at any moment.
That's true, but the fact he's on a 14-year deal makes it more of an issue to me.

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01-14-2014, 11:40 AM
  #145
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I wonder what it would take to get Ehrhoff from Buffalo? He could be a nice addition with a cheap cap hit although he has a long contract. Maybe a couple of mid round picks because of his contract length?
That is the one move I would try and make if I were Holmgren and he could be had for an ok price... that contract looks beautiful apart from the length as well, the cap hit is so low.

He would basically be a Kimmo replacement, can move the puck, underrated D, great shot...

I duno what the cost would be though... 1st+ most likely though, I think he will be a hot commodity at the deadline.

Get him then sign Girardi and the D looks pretty nice next year!

Coburn-Ehrhoff
Streit-Girardi
Schenn-Gus

(Grossmann would likely have to go if that happened.)

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01-14-2014, 11:44 AM
  #146
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That's cheating! LOL. I will give you Matt Read - but they gave up on Bob way too fast.
It still takes good scouting to find impact players like when you're playing against the percentages especially in Read's case.

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01-14-2014, 11:57 AM
  #147
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Coburn-Ehrhoff
Streit-Girardi
Schenn-Gus

(Grossmann would likely have to go if that happened.)
He would, but that does look pretty solid. Alt and Lauridsen can fill in as needed.

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01-14-2014, 12:12 PM
  #148
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He would, but that does look pretty solid. Alt and Lauridsen can fill in as needed.
It would also be cheaper than this years D by a good way!

Coburn ($4.5m) - Timonen ($6m)
Grossmann ($3.5m) - Streit ($5.25m)
Schenn ($3.6m) - Mez ($4m)
Gus ($1m)

Total: $27.85m


Coburn ($4.5m) - Ehrhoff ($4m)
Girardi (~$5m) - Streit ($5.25m)
Schenn ($3.6m) - Gus (~$1.2m)
Alt (782k)

Total: $24.17m

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01-14-2014, 12:14 PM
  #149
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Yup, Meszaros must be the highest paid 7th defenseman in the league.

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01-14-2014, 12:18 PM
  #150
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Yup, Meszaros must be the highest paid 7th defenseman in the league.
Oh yeh.

http://www.capgeek.com/leaders/?seas...ion=D&limit=50

47th highest paid D man in the NHL.

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