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01-14-2014, 09:18 AM
  #26
scopar
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I agree with the article posted - I honestly think this was Chevy's biggest mistake so far.

But all GMs make drafts/contracts/signings that don't pan out (always a risk) so the only way forward is to do better the next time.

I am very curious to see what is done this offseason for our goaltending. I hope it isn't status quo though, to be honest, it wouldn't surprise me.

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01-14-2014, 11:20 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
That's just wrong:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...nt-not-4m-year

His comparables had him under 2 mil... so it did not seem like a good idea at the time to all
We're talking starting goaltender money, not what he deserves based on his comparables. All of his comparables in this article had existing competitiom or had just been called up the previous year. If he had an uncertain future with Winnipeg at the time or had been pushed by a Veteran than it could have been a different situation.

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01-14-2014, 12:42 PM
  #28
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I'm a Pavs supporter but unless a goalie is elite with a proven track record, I don't think any goalie should get an expensive long term contract.
Year after year you have guys coming out of no where to be among the top in the league, and are getting paid low salaries. I think there are too many options for someone to get several million per year over several years.

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01-14-2014, 05:08 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inflict View Post
We're talking starting goaltender money, not what he deserves based on his comparables. All of his comparables in this article had existing competitiom or had just been called up the previous year. If he had an uncertain future with Winnipeg at the time or had been pushed by a Veteran than it could have been a different situation.
I think the argument would be that his future with Winnipeg should have been uncertain, or at least not $4m certain, considering his comparables and career stats. Management bet on his development and unfortunately it kinda seems like they'll going home broke

Here's your counterpoint:

Quote:
At that price point, Pavelec would no longer be the Jets' best alternative since even if they have to overpay for one, the Jets should be able to acquire an equal or better goaltender for $2.5 million or less without giving up significant assets.
I mean just for example, look at Khudobin. He might be a year older than Pavs, but he's posted better stats than him for years (admittedly with a far smaller sample size) - Khudobin's cap hit at 800k is less than a quarter of Pavs'. Like bazaa said and like Khudobin shows, there are plenty of decent goalies on modest contracts around the league. Unless you're a proven starter, you shouldn't be getting that kind of contract.

TLDR: I think there's definitely an argument to be made that, faced with an unreasonable 4M ultimatum, TNSE should have let Atlanta's dubious goalie walk rather than inherit his ambiguity in net.

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01-14-2014, 05:12 PM
  #30
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Pavs should have gotten a 1 or 2 year 2 million/year kind of "show me" deal and then given a long term contract. Chevy made a mistake, lets hope he learned from it and won't get pressured by pushy player's agents like Alan Walsh in the future

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01-14-2014, 05:40 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inflict View Post
We're talking starting goaltender money, not what he deserves based on his comparables. All of his comparables in this article had existing competitiom or had just been called up the previous year. If he had an uncertain future with Winnipeg at the time or had been pushed by a Veteran than it could have been a different situation.
Your talking about woulds; I'm talking about shoulds.

Your hypothesis is banked on that because Jets had no alternative options, which isn't quite correct.

It is not hard to find Pavelecesque results for league minimum or around: college graduates, euro goalies, UFA vets, etc.

Example: Montoya was signed at league minimum. I'm pretty confident if he was starting for the Jets his results wouldn't be far different than Pavelec one way or the other.

Everyone talks about how the Jets could possibly find better for cheaper (like the Kuho option) but really even the same for cheaper improves the Jets. You move that money elsewhere for better team and you improve overall.

Same sv% (ie: goalie) + better shots against (ie: better team) = lower GAA...

Osgood, Quick (sans cup year), Crawford, MAF... All not exactly above avg goalies very often (although some better than others, and all better than Pavelec) but better team changes the GA.

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01-14-2014, 05:53 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Osgood, Quick (sans cup year), Crawford, MAF... All not exactly above avg goalies very often (some far more often than others, and all more often than Pavelec) but better team changes the GA.
Quick belongs nowhere NEAR those other goalies names. C'mon now, you know better than that garret.

He was just average in his rookie year (.914svp) in 44 games as an emergency goalie that stole the show from the joke that was the LA Kings. Had a bit of struggles in his second year since this was a guy who had played a career high 56 games the year before was now playing 72 games (.907). His stats were really good until ran down in the later part of the year due to fatigue. Stepped up into starting role in 2010-11 and 2011-12 with a more reliable backup to take some of the pressure of having to play every game off him (.918, .929). Struggled with injuries for all of 2012-13. Never fully recovered. Now back to .914 and rising this year since getting healthy again. Also needs to be included is playoff stats (6gp .884 in 09-10, 6gp .913 in 10-11, 20gp .946 in 11-12, 18gp .934 in 12-13). I think he'll be a consistant .920+ goalie going forward if he can stay healthy.

Crawford other than the lockout year in 30 games has never been above league average. Fleury has settled into league average territory very consistently over the past 5 years. These are not comparables, IMO.

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01-14-2014, 06:24 PM
  #33
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I won't lie... I baited you with the Quick comment cos of our convo on AIH radio

Nevertheless the point remains true, that those are different level goalies from weak to above average, and none elite. All those teams were elite though.

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01-14-2014, 06:29 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bazaaa View Post
I'm a Pavs supporter but unless a goalie is elite with a proven track record, I don't think any goalie should get an expensive long term contract.
Year after year you have guys coming out of no where to be among the top in the league, and are getting paid low salaries. I think there are too many options for someone to get several million per year over several years.
Kind of like running backs in the NFL

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01-14-2014, 06:38 PM
  #35
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I thought Pavs looked great last night when the team actually played with some structure. I'm sure this could be debated to infinity but I really think he'd be good with a competent defense in front of him. I will concede though he sometimes does give up goals that he should completely have.

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01-14-2014, 06:56 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Winnipeg Jets View Post
I thought Pavs looked great last night when the team actually played with some structure. I'm sure this could be debated to infinity but I really think he'd be good with a competent defense in front of him. I will concede though he sometimes does give up goals that he should completely have.
Pavs had a stretch of 6-7 games in November where he looked good. Point is every goalie is gonna have good stretches but that doesn't mean anything. Pavs has had decent stretches every season only to back to his old self soon thereafter

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01-14-2014, 07:00 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Winnipeg Jets View Post
I thought Pavs looked great last night when the team actually played with some structure. I'm sure this could be debated to infinity but I really think he'd be good with a competent defense in front of him. I will concede though he sometimes does give up goals that he should completely have.
Every goalie in the NHL does.

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Old
01-14-2014, 08:01 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rook37 View Post
I think the argument would be that his future with Winnipeg should have been uncertain, or at least not $4m certain, considering his comparables and career stats. Management bet on his development and unfortunately it kinda seems like they'll going home broke

Here's your counterpoint:



I mean just for example, look at Khudobin. He might be a year older than Pavs, but he's posted better stats than him for years (admittedly with a far smaller sample size) - Khudobin's cap hit at 800k is less than a quarter of Pavs'. Like bazaa said and like Khudobin shows, there are plenty of decent goalies on modest contracts around the league. Unless you're a proven starter, you shouldn't be getting that kind of contract.

TLDR: I think there's definitely an argument to be made that, faced with an unreasonable 4M ultimatum, TNSE should have let Atlanta's dubious goalie walk rather than inherit his ambiguity in net.
Everything you said is an argument in hindsight. I'm not arguing that, because in hindsight it absolutely was the wrong move and it is going to cost our team one way or the other. In other words, I believe the deal was bad but for the right reason as opposed to a bad deal for the wrong reasons. I'll detail some of this below.

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Your talking about woulds; I'm talking about shoulds.

Your hypothesis is banked on that because Jets had no alternative options, which isn't quite correct.
Close, but I am arguing that there was no reason for Chevy to think of alternatives because there were plenty of reasons to think that he would be our goaltender of the future. To reiterate some of my previous points, Pavelec was the team MVP prior to his contract, had better statistical success the year prior, was a CHL allstar, won the Calder cup and was still a relatively young goaltender. The term was certainly a gamble that failed but the price was cheap for a starting goaltender. No doubt concessions were made with the term he received.

My point is, he had shown potential in the past and you don't throw away potential. The signing, in my eyes, was reasonable at the time.

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01-14-2014, 09:07 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inflict View Post
Everything you said is an argument in hindsight. I'm not arguing that, because in hindsight it absolutely was the wrong move and it is going to cost our team one way or the other. In other words, I believe the deal was bad but for the right reason as opposed to a bad deal for the wrong reasons. I'll detail some of this below.



Close, but I am arguing that there was no reason for Chevy to think of alternatives because there were plenty of reasons to think that he would be our goaltender of the future. To reiterate some of my previous points, Pavelec was the team MVP prior to his contract, had better statistical success the year prior, was a CHL allstar, won the Calder cup and was still a relatively young goaltender. The term was certainly a gamble that failed but the price was cheap for a starting goaltender. No doubt concessions were made with the term he received.

My point is, he had shown potential in the past and you don't throw away potential. The signing, in my eyes, was reasonable at the time.
I thought it was pretty clear he was a bad goalie that year. The numbers said he was unlikely to get better. I said as much before his deal.

He was bad in year one. I thought the MVP thing was a joke as were the stories about D causing his poor numbers.

EDIT

I also suggested letting him walk for anything over 3MM - I was assuming a short term deal. Better goalies or at least better goalie seasons are signed for peanuts all the time.

EDIT 2.0

Worth noting - Pavi finished that last year in Atlanta - his best statistical season - with 3 straight months of sub .900 goaltending.

His 1st month as a Jet was also sub .900.

That is 4 straight months of sub .900. That isn't good.


Last edited by truck: 01-14-2014 at 09:32 PM.
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01-14-2014, 09:45 PM
  #40
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I'm still a bit angry that we didn't take a serious run at Bernier this summer. He is single handedly keeping the Leafs in the mix. Another game where they are massively outshot and they escape with a win.

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01-14-2014, 10:28 PM
  #41
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I'm still a bit angry that we didn't take a serious run at Bernier this summer. He is single handedly keeping the Leafs in the mix. Another game where they are massively outshot and they escape with a win.
Greiss and Khudobin are both doing well too. Who woulda guessed.

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01-14-2014, 10:56 PM
  #42
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Greiss and Khudobin are both doing well too. Who woulda guessed.
Both of their sample sizes are ridiculously small. Montoya had similar stats in a similar amount of games.

I'm not sure what the fascination is with those two goalies:

Greiss hasn't played over 20 games in a season in NA in about 5 years, not sure why you'd think it would be wise to try him as a starter.

Khudobin is more interesting as he's gotten more games the last number of years and has some decent AHL numbers. He'd be worth a look, but at age 27 time is running out.

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01-14-2014, 11:14 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Both of their sample sizes are ridiculously small. Montoya had similar stats in a similar amount of games.

I'm not sure what the fascination is with those two goalies:

Greiss hasn't played over 20 games in a season in NA in about 5 years, not sure why you'd think it would be wise to try him as a starter.

Khudobin is more interesting as he's gotten more games the last number of years and has some decent AHL numbers. He'd be worth a look, but at age 27 time is running out.
Montoya has also had his chances. Neither Greiss nor Khudobin have been given a real chance to date. That's the difference.

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01-14-2014, 11:40 PM
  #44
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When Khudobin is getting 800K... its because he's being told he's a backup.

When Montoya got 600k... it was because he's being told he's a backup.

Gm's aren't going into a any contract negotiation "We'll pay you 800k for 82 games and you'll need .920." lol

Stop talking like any of UFA goalies will play 60+ games a year for much cheaper then 3.9 million... Add in Manitoba's HUGE income tax, in comparison to other places like Florida. 3.9 quickly boils down 2.1 million a year for Terrible Pavelec.

Good Goalies aren't Cheap. I'm sure Pavelec would LOVE To get traded to a Southern State because he negotiated his contract at a Canadian tax rate.

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01-15-2014, 12:41 AM
  #45
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We could always put Dancing Gabe in net.
He has great movement & is rarely out of position.

#BlamePavelec

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01-15-2014, 12:59 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Both of their sample sizes are ridiculously small. Montoya had similar stats in a similar amount of games.

I'm not sure what the fascination is with those two goalies:

Greiss hasn't played over 20 games in a season in NA in about 5 years, not sure why you'd think it would be wise to try him as a starter.

Khudobin is more interesting as he's gotten more games the last number of years and has some decent AHL numbers. He'd be worth a look, but at age 27 time is running out.
Even though you can't extrapolate, it would be hard to believe either of those guys or a guy like Justin Peters would be .900 goalies with more starts. That's what we're getting now. Even if we sign a couple of those guys or hang on to Montoya to hedge our bets it would be hard to imagine having worse goaltending than we do now.

Basically Pavelec has proven that he can't balance the workload of a starting goaltender with NHL-caliber performance in those games. It would be a risk to turn over the net to someone who hasn't played 50 or 60 games in one NHL season, but we don't have a whole lot to lose.

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01-15-2014, 01:15 AM
  #47
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We could always put Dancing Gabe in net.
He has great movement & is rarely out of position.

#BlamePavelec
I hate to say it, but at this time, I essentially am. And I was a huge Pav supporter for two seasons. Most other things have had some sort of plan laid out. Skaters; build through our organization. Systems; Maurice is, in theory, supposed to work on these, as well as effort level. Goaltending; the biggest question mark. Just not Pavelec, because he's had his chance. Five seasons worth of chances.

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01-15-2014, 05:49 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Galbatross View Post
When Khudobin is getting 800K... its because he's being told he's a backup.

When Montoya got 600k... it was because he's being told he's a backup.

Gm's aren't going into a any contract negotiation "We'll pay you 800k for 82 games and you'll need .920." lol

Stop talking like any of UFA goalies will play 60+ games a year for much cheaper then 3.9 million... Add in Manitoba's HUGE income tax, in comparison to other places like Florida. 3.9 quickly boils down 2.1 million a year for Terrible Pavelec.

Good Goalies aren't Cheap. I'm sure Pavelec would LOVE To get traded to a Southern State because he negotiated his contract at a Canadian tax rate.
There is probably more truth to this than allot would be willing to admit.

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01-15-2014, 07:47 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Galbatross View Post
When Khudobin is getting 800K... its because he's being told he's a backup.

When Montoya got 600k... it was because he's being told he's a backup.

Gm's aren't going into a any contract negotiation "We'll pay you 800k for 82 games and you'll need .920." lol

Stop talking like any of UFA goalies will play 60+ games a year for much cheaper then 3.9 million... Add in Manitoba's HUGE income tax, in comparison to other places like Florida. 3.9 quickly boils down 2.1 million a year for Terrible Pavelec.

Good Goalies aren't Cheap. I'm sure Pavelec would LOVE To get traded to a Southern State because he negotiated his contract at a Canadian tax rate.
Good goalies or at least good goalie seasons are found on the cheap all the time.

Paying someone like Khudobin doesn't come with expectations of 70 starts and a .920. It comes with the hope that - if everything goes well - he could come in and collect a regular, above average start.

Pavelec isn't doing this and is unlikely to at this point. This is why people are looking at other possibilities.

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01-15-2014, 08:57 AM
  #50
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I'm still a bit angry that we didn't take a serious run at Bernier this summer. He is single handedly keeping the Leafs in the mix. Another game where they are massively outshot and they escape with a win.
If I remember LA wanted a serviceable NHL ready backup (Scrivens) who was cheap and under contract as part of the return. We didn't have what was needed.

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