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Old
01-24-2014, 01:48 PM
  #1
Thirty One
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Advanced Stats

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bardof425 View Post
The basic premise that shots on goal is the end all event is a problem. Shots come in all shapes and sizes. Often allowing a shot from the boards is an effective play as opposed to letting the player move behind the net for a potential dish. And there are hordes of other "real game" scenerios where the "shot on goal" is misleading as a measure of on ice success or failure.
Shots come in all shapes and sizes, agreed.

Shots while McDonagh is on the ice come in all shapes and sizes. Shots while John Moore is on the ice come in all shapes and sizes. Given a sample large enough, both collections of shots will be pretty similar.

Don't believe me? Here's a list of the Rangers' defenseman from 2012-13 listed in order of on-ice save percentage:



Does that look more like a list of the Rangers’ best defensive defensemen listed from top to bottom, or like a list of Rangers’ defensemen put in random order?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bardof425 View Post
btw, did you notice how many times Boyle fell down last night? It was alot.
I actually did.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:49 PM
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Fire Sather
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I rate hockey players by watching them play.

I don't need advanced stats.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:50 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire Sather View Post
I rate hockey players by watching them play.

I don't need advanced stats.
That's super of you.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire Sather View Post
I rate hockey players by watching them play.

I don't need advanced stats.
How do you rate baseball players?

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire Sather View Post
I rate hockey players by watching them play.

I don't need advanced stats.
I'd suggest reading Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast And Slow".

Your own memory is conspiring against you.

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01-24-2014, 01:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mint View Post
How do you rate baseball players?
I'm against advanced stats for baseball as well but I have recently started to embrace it a little more.

TBH advanced stats has basically ruined baseball for me. It has made me realize how random baseball really is.. snowballing to making me realize how pointless each individual baseball game really is. Who cares if you win a random game in May?

Now with the adding of the extra playoff team it just makes everything more random. Going off topic here but baseball really is terrible and I used to be a major fan.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:56 PM
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So we should have played Eminger and DZ more? I knew it! Damn you Torts, what were you thinking putting McD out there late in games?????

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:57 PM
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ugh, i don't want to go off topic either, but are the nhl playoffs better?
more than half the league gets into the playoffs.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by phillyb View Post
ugh, i don't want to go off topic either, but are the nhl playoffs better?
more than half the league gets into the playoffs.
Yeah, the top ranked Fenwick teams are usually the ones who win it.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:59 PM
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From the other thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by -31- View Post
By same conditions, I mean same Quality of Teammates/Competition and Zone Starts those are all factors that can be measured and accounted for.
When are conditions ever the same? The system in question is pretty nondeterministic, even when comparing two players on the same team under similar conditions, i.e. one player replacing another in the same role.

How then can you compare a player on one team playing sheltered minutes to a player on another team playing significantly more difficult minutes with a completely different supporting cast?

You say the factors are measure and accounted for, but where does that show up in CR%? Is there a superseding rubric that hasn't been mentioned?

Quote:
Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Defenders have been shown to have little impact on shot quality.
Just read your analysis in the OP.

How does it measure quality of shots relative to quality of competition? It's not assumed that line-matching evens everything out over time?

A top defensive unit giving up a quality scoring chance against a top line is not the same as a sheltered third pair giving up a quality chance against a bottom six line.

Logically you have two sets of quality chances but the former is more understanding and probably ultimately harder for the goalie to stop.

So you have weaker defensemen playing poorer defense with a higher save percentage.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:59 PM
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Lol GOAT thread title.

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Old
01-24-2014, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
ugh, i don't want to go off topic either, but are the nhl playoffs better?
more than half the league gets into the playoffs.
At least all the series are best of 7. Baseball is ridiculous with a 1-game and 5 game playoff.

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01-24-2014, 02:01 PM
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Wish the title was "...smarter than your"

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:02 PM
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FenBrah.

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McRanger View Post
From the other thread:



When are conditions ever the same? The system in question is pretty nondeterministic, even when comparing two players on the same team under similar conditions, i.e. one player replacing another in the same role.

How then can you compare a player on one team playing sheltered minutes to a player on another team playing significantly more difficult minutes with a completely different supporting cast?

You say the factors are measure and accounted for, but where does that show up in CR%? Is there a superseding rubric that hasn't been mentioned?
I'm sure there has been work done to provide a conversion factor for Corsi based on player usage, but I'm not aware of it.

I look at each factor individually and form an opinion from there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by McRanger View Post
Just read your analysis in the OP.

How does it measure quality of shots relative to quality of competition? It's not assumed that line-matching evens everything out over time?

A top defensive unit giving up a quality scoring chance against a top line is not the same as a sheltered third pair giving up a quality chance against a bottom six line.

Logically you have two sets of quality chances but the former is more understanding and probably ultimately harder for the goalie to stop.

So you have weaker defensemen playing poorer defense with a higher save percentage.
Eminger and Gilroy are at the top of the list. Hamrlik and Bickel are at the bottom. I'm sorry, but random is the only answer I will accept here.

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:23 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire Sather View Post
I rate hockey players by watching them play.

I don't need advanced stats.
I'm more partial to the eye test as well, but any criteria for judgement is much less relevant when solely relied upon. i.e. You shouldn't rely only on stats, or advanced stats, or the eye tests, or whatever, but some combination of them all, or at least more than one.

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:43 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire Sather View Post
I rate hockey players by watching them play.

I don't need advanced stats.
Good for you.

But, in the end, math is math and a lot of people who watch hockey don't know what they're watching.

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:46 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
Good for you.

But, in the end, math is math and a lot of people who watch hockey don't know what they're watching.
Or more frequently, tend to remember the events they want to, and forget the ones that don't fit what they want to believe.

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Or more frequently, tend to remember the events they want to, and forget the ones that don't fit what they want to believe.
True. That should be called the Lundqvist Rule. Remember the "soft goal" he gave up and forget about the 3 or 4 great saves proceeding it.

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Old
01-24-2014, 02:52 PM
  #20
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People who disregard advanced stats usually do so because their beliefs on how the game should be played are wrong, and it shows up clearly in the advanced stats.

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01-24-2014, 02:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Or more frequently, tend to remember the events they want to, and forget the ones that don't fit what they want to believe.
Exactly.

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Old
01-24-2014, 03:05 PM
  #22
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I can understand advanced stats with baseball because it's just so much easier to separate the individual from the team. ABs are individual accomplishments. Having said that, stats like WAR are incredibly unreliable and always being changed. I can get on board with wOBA but it's basically just looking at players singles, doubles, triples, hrs, and walks, and putting it all together in a neat little package. It's not very "advanced".

Sports like football and hockey are just so much harder to quantify.

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Old
01-24-2014, 03:06 PM
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Not to mention the idea of being able to see every single thing happening on the ice at any given moment, AND recall it in flawless detail in a game as fast as hockey is a hilarious notion. Add on top if it fan bias, and emotional investment during the heat of gameplay and you have probably one of the worst possible conditions for trying to objectively judge what you are "seeing."

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Old
01-24-2014, 03:06 PM
  #24
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I don't think that most fans think the stats are useless. People just say that they're not the be all end all. Yet the advanced stat guys tend to SAY the same thing, yet every argument they have is "CORSI brah".

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Old
01-24-2014, 03:17 PM
  #25
Fire Sather
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
Good for you.

But, in the end, math is math and a lot of people who watch hockey don't know what they're watching.
Yeah, its a good thing those advanced stats came along, because nobody knew what they were watching for 80 years.

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