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Where does Jaromir Jagr rank purely offensively?

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Old
02-06-2014, 03:37 AM
  #126
TAnnala
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You mean tied with post-prime Gretzky for 4th (2nd among Canadians), barely ahead of Lindros in PPG.

As for "total points over x span," it's just useless statistical smoke considering Jagr and Sakic were about the only star players whose careers perfectly overlapped with that time frame.

Maurice Richard? 1st in points from 1945 (his first top 10 finish) to 1957 (his last top 10 finish). Tied for 4th in PPG, but a close 2nd to Gordie Howe in PPG among anyone who played more than 36% as many games as him: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...rder_by=points
Wow! That is impressive from the Rocket. Crazy to think that he never won a scoring title. Even if he clearly was consistenly among the best in the league. He ranks higher than Sakic offensively, IMO.

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02-06-2014, 05:57 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Bit of an oversight, as that's more of a first draft than the last word on the matter.

Overall depends on how one values the various components, but Lemieux at his peak was very close to Gretzky (the main advantage for Gretzky seems to be ES production).

Career isn't quite the chasm that some of the other categories are:

- Howe (and Hull) had several WHA seasons, while Jagr has the missing lockout season and 3 seasons in the KHL
- Howe and Jagr had/have tremendous longevity

Gretzky isn't THAT far above Howe in GCARV, once you include those non-NHL seasons. Jagr is closer to Howe (and still gaining) than Hull is to Jagr (although roughly the same gap at this time).

My view, based on the numbers, but tempered with other info, is probably closer to this:


PEAK
=====
Gretzky, Lemieux

Jagr, Howe

Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

PRIME
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr, Howe

Espo, Orr
Hull, etc.

CAREER
=====
Gretzky

Howe, Jagr

Lemieux, Hull
Espo

OVERALL
=====
Gretzky

Lemieux
Jagr, Howe

Orr, Espo, Hull
That looks better but I still have a few questions.

How does Jagr gain anything in longevity on Gretzky when it comes to strictly offense?

Jagr had his last PPG season at 34 (then had 1 in three years of KHL).
Gretzky had his last PPG season at 37 finishing 3rd in the points race.

Jagr had 3 PPG seasons from the age of 30.
Gretzky had 8 straight (and this is into the dead puck era).

Grezky also has a much better start to his career being elite from 18 when Jagr became elite around age 21.

If we use Hockey References Adjusted point shares (which is very flawed but still) it looks like this
19.7, 19.6, 19.6, 18.0, 17.6, 17.0, 14.5, 14.3, 14.1, 12.8, 12.7, 11.3, 11.1, 9.5, 9.4, 9.1, 8.4, 4.8, 4.2, 3.3,

16.0, 15.5, 14.6, 14.1, 12.6, 12.2, 12.0, 11.0, 9.1, 9.1, 9.1, 8.7, 8.3, 8.1, 8.0, 6.1, 6.1, 4.1, 4.0

Here Gretzkys 15th best season is clearly better than Jagrs 9th.


And I think your GCARV system needs some serious work if it gives Jagrs 3 average KHL seasons almost the same value as 1/3 of Mikitas or Messiers careers. That is just ridiculous.


Jagr is very impressive for a 41 year old but to say he is now bridging the offensive gap to Gretzky is almost like saying I will start bridging the gap in Boxing to Mohammad Ali after the age of 50 if I don't get parkinson.


Last edited by pluppe: 02-06-2014 at 06:05 AM.
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02-06-2014, 06:46 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by pluppe View Post
And I think your GCARV system needs some serious work if it gives Jagrs 3 average KHL seasons almost the same value as 1/3 of Mikitas or Messiers careers. That is just ridiculous.
I'm glad someone else mentioned this.
I was going to but with my reputation for attacking a lot of these "Adjustment formulas", I was hoping someone else noticed and pointed out the silliness first

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02-06-2014, 06:55 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by pluppe View Post

And I think your GCARV system needs some serious work if it gives Jagrs 3 average KHL seasons almost the same value as 1/3 of Mikitas or Messiers careers. That is just ridiculous.


Jagr is very impressive for a 41 year old but to say he is now bridging the offensive gap to Gretzky is almost like saying I will start bridging the gap in Boxing to Mohammad Ali after the age of 50 if I don't get parkinson.
I didn't even realize that at first. But if that is the case, then yeah. It is plain ridiculous.

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02-06-2014, 11:14 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by pluppe View Post
How does Jagr gain anything in longevity on Gretzky when it comes to strictly offense?
He only gains in comparison to only counting each player's NHL seasons, because Gretzky had only one WHA season outside the NHL, while Jagr had 4 KHL seasons (and then returned to the NHL).

I never said Jagr was gaining on Gretzky (although in a career value sense, obv. he is), and certainly never meant to imply that he was around Gretzky's level in terms of career value.


Quote:
Originally Posted by pluppe View Post
And I think your GCARV system needs some serious work if it gives Jagrs 3 average KHL seasons almost the same value as 1/3 of Mikitas or Messiers careers. That is just ridiculous.
It's actually 4 KHL/RSL seasons, the other being '05 when he would have won the RSL scoring title by a large margin if he had spent the whole season there ('05 RSL: Jagr 39 Pts in 32 GP, Kovalchuk 41 Pts in 53 GP, Malkin 32 Pts in 52 GP, Ovechkin 27 Pts in 37 GP).

Messier was of limited offensive (or overall) value IMO in his last several seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pluppe View Post
If we use Hockey References Adjusted point shares
Since you brought it up, let's look at Offensive Point Shares.

Career OPS
========
1. Wayne Gretzky 223.86
2. Gordie Howe 186.56
3. Jaromir Jagr 160.10
4. Mario Lemieux 152.43
5. Phil Esposito 142.94
6. Teemu Selanne 142.57
7. Joe Sakic 141.74
8. Steve Yzerman 139.44
9. Marcel Dionne 135.91
10. Mark Messier 135.61

Here is Career Adjusted Points Above RV (RV=.50 Adj PPG) thru last season:

1 Gretzky 1,714
2 Howe 1,358
3 Jagr 1,089
4 Lemieux 1,073
5 Sakic 969
6 Esposito 941
7 Yzerman 864
8 Dionne 853
9 Mikita 843
10 Messier 835


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 02-06-2014 at 11:42 AM.
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02-06-2014, 12:03 PM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Since you brought it up, let's look at Offensive Point Shares.

Career OPS
========
1. Wayne Gretzky 223.86
2. Gordie Howe 186.56
3. Jaromir Jagr 160.10
4. Mario Lemieux 152.43
5. Phil Esposito 142.94
6. Teemu Selanne 142.57
7. Joe Sakic 141.74
8. Steve Yzerman 139.44
9. Marcel Dionne 135.91
10. Mark Messier 135.61
Questions of formulae, weighting, and cross-era relevance/usefulness aside, I find the point shares thing to be the most interesting addition to hockeyreference. Thing about those totals, of course, is that eventually they start "rewarding" longevity disproportionately to "greatness".

For instance, Howe looks to still have a decent lead on Jagr when it comes to offensive point shares. What's lost in that, is that not only does Jagr have the single highest season for OPS between them, you get three more Jagr seasons as you go down the list before you even get to Howe's second highest season. What you also see is a serious case for Orr, despite not appearing in that top 10 overall.

Back to my point, it's easy to see that putting together three seasons of 5 OPS is FAR more than 3X "easier" or "more likely" than ending up with 15+ OPS, for example. A guy with a 15 year career of on average no more than 3 OPS completely "compensates" for 3 of what would be top 10 seasons all-time? That's an issue.

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02-06-2014, 12:09 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
He only gains in comparison to only counting each player's NHL seasons, because Gretzky had only one WHA season outside the NHL, while Jagr had 4 KHL seasons (and then returned to the NHL).

I never said Jagr was gaining on Gretzky (although in a career value sense, obv. he is), and certainly never meant to imply that he was around Gretzky's level in terms of career value.




It's actually 4 KHL/RSL seasons, the other being '05 when he would have won the RSL scoring title by a large margin if he had spent the whole season there ('05 RSL: Jagr 39 Pts in 32 GP, Kovalchuk 41 Pts in 53 GP, Malkin 32 Pts in 52 GP, Ovechkin 27 Pts in 37 GP).

Messier was of limited offensive (or overall) value IMO in his last several seasons.



Since you brought it up, let's look at Offensive Point Shares.

Career OPS
========
1. Wayne Gretzky 223.86
2. Gordie Howe 186.56
3. Jaromir Jagr 160.10
4. Mario Lemieux 152.43
5. Phil Esposito 142.94
6. Teemu Selanne 142.57
7. Joe Sakic 141.74
8. Steve Yzerman 139.44
9. Marcel Dionne 135.91
10. Mark Messier 135.61

Here is Career Adjusted Points Above RV (RV=.50 Adj PPG) thru last season:

1 Gretzky 1,714
2 Howe 1,358
3 Jagr 1,089
4 Lemieux 1,073
5 Sakic 969
6 Esposito 941
7 Yzerman 864
8 Dionne 853
9 Mikita 843
10 Messier 835
Offensive point shares, really? Its just career points, adjusted to make goala appear twice as valuable as assists

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02-06-2014, 12:15 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Offensive point shares, really? Its just career points, adjusted to make goala appear twice as valuable as assists
What is the deal with offensive point shares? As a Finn, the first thing I saw was that Selanne has almost 50% lead over Kurri. If it is all about offense, it is pretty hard to justify that.

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02-06-2014, 12:19 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Offensive point shares, really? Its just career points, adjusted to make goala appear twice as valuable as assists
I don't know if offensive point shares are the answer, but I agree that the notion measuering the offensive contribution a player had exclusively with pts (G=A) is flawed and inaccurate.
But somehow it seems to be accepted by 99% of the hockey world as accurate and never questioned.

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02-06-2014, 01:49 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Offensive point shares, really? Its just career points, adjusted to make goala appear twice as valuable as assists
Commented on the weighting and eras thing earlier, but what is the "actual" difference again? I think I've seen "more refined" formulas credit 0.7 value to assists (from relative abundance?), which isn't really that far from hockeyreference's 0.5 (or half as "valuable"). Obviously the difference from using "real" minutes instead of games played (1997 and earlier) is significant, though.

I don't think it's any different than attempting to use other things like PPG, GAA, SV% (or even +/-) "as best you can", which is to say with context and not in absolutes. It still counts up some of the things that we still put the highest priorities on, to some degree.

How valuable is the goala in Australia, btw?

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02-06-2014, 02:21 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by unknown33 View Post
I don't know if offensive point shares are the answer, but I agree that the notion measuering the offensive contribution a player had exclusively with pts (G=A) is flawed and inaccurate.
But somehow it seems to be accepted by 99% of the hockey world as accurate and never questioned.
I think that when we are talking about the best of the best offensive players, an assist is a lot closer to as valuable as a goal than it is to only half as valuable

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02-06-2014, 02:24 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Commented on the weighting and eras thing earlier, but what is the "actual" difference again? I think I've seen "more refined" formulas credit 0.7 value to assists (from relative abundance?), which isn't really that far from hockeyreference's 0.5 (or half as "valuable"). Obviously the difference from using "real" minutes instead of games played (1997 and earlier) is significant, though.

I don't think it's any different than attempting to use other things like PPG, GAA, SV% (or even +/-) "as best you can", which is to say with context and not in absolutes. It still counts up some of the things that we still put the highest priorities on, to some degree.

How valuable is the goala in Australia, btw?
I think that anyone using hockey reference's point shares isn't doing anything as best as they can, because the formulas they use are terrible.

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02-06-2014, 02:38 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think that when we are talking about the best of the best offensive players, an assist is a lot closer to as valuable as a goal than it is to only half as valuable
Not saying that what h-r attempted using half is the better solution here, but why settle for 1 if there might be a better way?

It just seems to be the gold standard because of historical value tied to the scoring race and the Art Ross trophy, especially considering that ways for awarding assists and how many there are per goal vary per timeperiod/league.

What's with secondary assists? Sure one might say that there are some plays were the 2ndary assists has the major influence of the goal scored, but over a large sample of goals I highly doubt that it's a common occurance.

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02-06-2014, 03:02 PM
  #139
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Listen, it‘s bad enough when we‘re just dealing with top 10 scorers in a given season and adjusted stats which are based on League averages.
In this case, we‘re well beyond that where we‘re dealing with not just outliers, we dealing with THE outliers!
So using “adjustments“ based on League averages for these players isn‘t worth the paper it‘s printer on period!

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02-06-2014, 03:03 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
Wow! That is impressive from the Rocket. Crazy to think that he never won a scoring title. Even if he clearly was consistenly among the best in the league. He ranks higher than Sakic offensively, IMO.
Couple of points here, the Rocket was extremely fortunate to play with 2 HHOF centers in Lach and Jean.

he is a definite notch below Jagr offensively IMO.

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02-06-2014, 03:09 PM
  #141
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I think that anyone using hockey reference's point shares isn't doing anything as best as they can, because the formulas they use are terrible.
Terrible at what, though? Providing a simple and all-encompassing universal player ranking formula? Sure, granted. It does an excellent job of sorting seasons that resulted in a post-season all-star berth from those that didn't, though, for example. Hard not to notice that, when every player ever has their individual seasons stuck into the machine, the vast majority (stopped checking after starting from the top because they ALL did up to... I can't even remember) of those that appear on the first page of 100 either earned a all-star berth, a Hart, Lindsay, or Art Ross trophy (sometimes more than just one of them), or figured very much into the voting of those awards. Even totaled for career, the names that float to the top are predominantly the names that should (even if career realities prevent some players from rising as high, or sinking as low, as they should/could have).

I think it (point shares) is pretty much as "telling" as any time I've ever seen anyone reference PPG or use it in a comparison, for example, but I've also expressed my concerns with it. It's always just a matter of what (or how much) you want a formula's results to "say" in the end. I wouldn't go as far as to call it "terrible", though. Results seem much better than that, just far from "perfect".

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02-06-2014, 03:32 PM
  #142
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
He only gains in comparison to only counting each player's NHL seasons, because Gretzky had only one WHA season outside the NHL, while Jagr had 4 KHL seasons (and then returned to the NHL).

I never said Jagr was gaining on Gretzky (although in a career value sense, obv. he is), and certainly never meant to imply that he was around Gretzky's level in terms of career value.
You said this:


Quote:
Career isn't quite the chasm that some of the other categories are:

- Howe (and Hull) had several WHA seasons, while Jagr has the missing lockout season and 3 seasons in the KHL
- Howe and Jagr had/have tremendous longevity

Gretzky isn't THAT far above Howe in GCARV, once you include those non-NHL seasons. Jagr is closer to Howe (and still gaining) than Hull is to Jagr (although roughly the same gap at this time).
Which seemed to hint at Howe being close to Gretzky and Jagr being close to Howe.

You did not respond to my reasoning around their PPG seasons. Who do you think has the better longevity offensively, Gretzky or Jagr?

Quote:
It's actually 4 KHL/RSL seasons, the other being '05 when he would have won the RSL scoring title by a large margin if he had spent the whole season there ('05 RSL: Jagr 39 Pts in 32 GP, Kovalchuk 41 Pts in 53 GP, Malkin 32 Pts in 52 GP, Ovechkin 27 Pts in 37 GP).

Messier was of limited offensive (or overall) value IMO in his last several seasons.
These are the seasons

04/05
38 points in 32 games. How much do you project he would beat the great Maxim Suchinsky, who had 56 in 50, by? (And don't try "he inflated his stats. Suchinsky won the scoring race with the same stats the year before). How many GCARV does he get?

08/09 (the year after putting in 71 points in 82 games in the NHL)
7th in points with 53, 23 points behind the leader.

09/10
20th in point with 42 24 points behind the leader.

10/11
10th in points with 50, 30 points behind the leader.

For this you award him 89 GCARV. Messier has 286 for his career. Mikita has 4 art rosses. He gets 294. Beliveau gets 318. You are seriously saying that Jagr could have skipped the NHL and kept this standard up for a total of 16 years in russia and he would have them easily beat with 356.

I'm sorry but that is still completely ridiculous.

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02-06-2014, 03:35 PM
  #143
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Couple of points here, the Rocket was extremely fortunate to play with 2 HHOF centers in Lach and Jean.

he is a definite notch below Jagr offensively IMO.
Yeah. I am not saying he is better offensively than Jagr. There are few guys I would put ahead of Jags. Actually, Jagr might be the best offensive forward after the "big 3".

But I think Rocket is ahead of Sakic. Not by a mile, but by a clear margin.

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02-06-2014, 04:09 PM
  #144
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What was Gordie Howe's ice-time compared to his contemporaries? I've heard stories, but nothing substantiated.

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02-07-2014, 01:54 AM
  #145
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Among forwards, I would say jagr is the 4th best offensive forward in terms of peak value. Crosby will join this discussion soon, I expect him to win 3-4 art rosses and lead the league in ppg 7 times when his career is over.

My tiers:

Gretzky

Lemieux/Howe

Jagr/Orr
Beliveau/Hull
Mikita/Richard

Esposito is overrated, I'll rank him in the next tier and judge him in a vacuum rather than lucky circumstances. Crosby is going to join this list very soon, hes easily the 4th best offensive player in the post-bobby orr era.

I wonder where people would rank ovechkin, for 3 straight years he was 1st in points per game, while being a goal scoring monster. Certainly there is more value for goals over assists. Its only a matter of time before ovy surpasses bossy-lafluer-dionne-yzerman-sakic in this type of comparison.


Last edited by ushvinder: 02-07-2014 at 02:06 AM.
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02-07-2014, 01:56 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think that anyone using hockey reference's point shares isn't doing anything as best as they can, because the formulas they use are terrible.
I agree that many of HR.com's formulas are suspect, including Point Shares. I only presented the information as a step towards completeness, and because someone mentioned it.

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02-07-2014, 02:04 AM
  #147
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Originally Posted by unknown33 View Post
I don't know if offensive point shares are the answer, but I agree that the notion measuering the offensive contribution a player had exclusively with pts (G=A) is flawed and inaccurate.
But somehow it seems to be accepted by 99% of the hockey world as accurate and never questioned.
I don't think OPS is the answer, just another perspective, as flawed as it is.

Is your issue with points that they do not properly balance G & A, or that G & A do not tell the whole offensive story? I agree with both, actually... the first is difficult to come to a consensus, but I use the league G/A ratio in GC formula, since it relates to scarcity of each. Looking at that, and points separately, seems to give a pretty clear picture of offensive value. The second is difficult as well, because other data tends to blur with metrics of overall effectiveness.

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02-07-2014, 02:08 AM
  #148
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I don't think OPS is the answer, just another perspective, as flawed as it is.

Is your issue with points that they do not properly balance G & A, or that G & A do not tell the whole offensive story? I agree with both, actually... the first is difficult to come to a consensus, but I use the league G/A ratio in GC formula, since it relates to scarcity of each. Looking at that, and points separately, seems to give a pretty clear picture of offensive value. The second is difficult as well, because other data tends to blur with metrics of overall effectiveness.
I think there has to be a formula for measuring goals over assists. Im sure you would rank peak ovy/crosby above sakic and yzerman in terms of offense right?

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02-07-2014, 02:12 AM
  #149
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
Listen, it‘s bad enough when we‘re just dealing with top 10 scorers in a given season and adjusted stats which are based on League averages.
In this case, we‘re well beyond that where we‘re dealing with not just outliers, we dealing with THE outliers!
So using “adjustments“ based on League averages for these players isn‘t worth the paper it‘s printer on period!
We've discussed this until near the point of exhaustion in BTN forum.

I think most would agree that adjusted data takes not just a step, but a tremendous leap in the direction of fairness, since it is based on the concept of the value of a goal in each season's environment (i.e., scoring level).

Each era has to be looked at individually, as to the causes and effects which predominated at that time. Some eras were particularly tough for stars to get adjusted points: most of the 60s until expansion... most of the 80s... and most of the current era which coincides with the addition of overseas players. Some eras were particularly easy as well: WWII through most or all of the 50s... the O6 expansion through most or all of the 70s.

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02-07-2014, 02:42 AM
  #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
Listen, it‘s bad enough when we‘re just dealing with top 10 scorers in a given season and adjusted stats which are based on League averages.
In this case, we‘re well beyond that where we‘re dealing with not just outliers, we dealing with THE outliers!
So using “adjustments“ based on League averages for these players isn‘t worth the paper it‘s printer on period!
This is what a logician might refer to as a "non-sequitur".

Then again, so many of your posts have the exact same structure...

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