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Trade Rumor/Speculation Thread XIX: The Olympic Freeze

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Old
02-18-2014, 06:34 PM
  #826
Thirty One
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Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
I'm sure Boyle's 1 20 goal season inflates that a bit, no?
Yes. And his 2 goal season deflates it.

And Kelly's 20 goal season where he shot 16% sure inflates his.

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02-18-2014, 06:49 PM
  #827
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Yes. And his 2 goal season deflates it.

And Kelly's 20 goal season where he shot 16% sure inflates his.
Take out both of their best and worst seasons. For Boyle, I'm taking out his stellar 4 goal 2 assist performance in 71 games rather than his 2 goal 5 assist in 38 game performance since he's producing more points per game in that season.

Kelly: 528gp, 82g, 194p
Goals per game: .155
Points per game: .254

Boyle: 215gp, 25g, 43p
Goals per game: .116
Points per game: .20

Boyle has scored over 10 goals twice and they were in consecutive years: 21 goals and then 11 goals. He hasn't score more than 4 in a year in any other year he's been in the league.

Kelly has scored over 10 goals 7 times in his career and he'd be on pace for 9/10 this year if he played in all 82 games.

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02-18-2014, 06:51 PM
  #828
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Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
Take out both of their best and worst seasons. For Boyle, I'm taking out his stellar 4 goal 2 assist performance in 71 games rather than his 2 goal 5 assist in 38 game performance since he's producing more points per game in that season.

Kelly: 528gp, 82g, 194p
Goals per game: .155
Points per game: .254

Boyle: 215gp, 25g, 43p
Goals per game: .116
Points per game: .20
Hardly a startling difference.

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02-18-2014, 06:52 PM
  #829
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
I'd even say 2 million is a stretch. I like Boyle and always have but he doesn't score enough to justify that salary. He's a big body who brings lots of intangibles, and I appreciate everything he does. But even at the salary he makes now, I think that's fair payment, and he got that contract after his 20 goal season.

The cap isn't going up high enough to justify 4th liners making that kind of money yet. He's a 4th liner, and him playing anywhere else is misuse.
That's the only position AV has played him in anyway...

2M is a decent price for the intangibles Boyle brings to the table. There's no reason to get rid of the guy. You can get the same draft picks by trading a bust prospect to some GM that thinks he can reclaim those prospects

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02-18-2014, 06:55 PM
  #830
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Hardly a startling difference.
A guy who's scored over 10 goals in 7 years and on his way to his 8th vs a guy who's scored 10 in just 2.

Boyle is consistently around 4 goals a season. Kelly around 10. That's a big difference.

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02-18-2014, 06:57 PM
  #831
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Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
A guy who's scored over 10 goals in 7 years and on his way to his 8th vs a guy who's scored 10 in just 2.

Boyle is consistently around 4 goals a season. Kelly around 10. That's a big difference.
Yet Boyle scores more goals per game?

Somewhere your math is falling through.

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02-18-2014, 06:59 PM
  #832
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Oh, and Kelly isn't "on his way" to scoring 10 goals this season. He's not going to get to make up those missed games.

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02-18-2014, 06:59 PM
  #833
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Yet Boyle scores more goals per game?

Somewhere your math is falling through.
Huh? .16 for Kelly vs .11 for Boyle...

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02-18-2014, 07:00 PM
  #834
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Oh, and Kelly isn't "on his way" to scoring 10 goals this season. He's not going to get to make up those missed games.
His ppg is in line with where it has been throughout his career.

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02-18-2014, 07:00 PM
  #835
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Huh? .16 for Kelly vs .11 for Boyle...


Yeah, I read it as .116 vs. .115

...

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02-18-2014, 07:02 PM
  #836
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Yeah, I read it as .116 vs. .115

...
Haha no worries.

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02-18-2014, 07:02 PM
  #837
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Chris Kelly isn't a 4th liner...
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Originally Posted by Punxrocknyc19 View Post
Chris Kelly has been a 15 goal scorer more than once and has put up 30 pts a few times and is a 3rd liner PK player..


http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=31865

id like to see Boyle do that..


Kelly has 238 pts 104 goals in 638 games
Boyle has 95 pts 50 goals in 368 games
You're both missing the point though.

If we signed Chris Kelly to that contract, everyone would be complaining. It would be a waste of assets, a replaceable player from within. We could call up someone from the farm to do what he does.

You need guys like Chris Kelly and if he gets $3M, then how is Boyle at $2.5M not reasonable? You need guys like him, too.

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02-18-2014, 07:20 PM
  #838
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
You're both missing the point though.

If we signed Chris Kelly to that contract, everyone would be complaining. It would be a waste of assets, a replaceable player from within. We could call up someone from the farm to do what he does.

You need guys like Chris Kelly and if he gets $3M, then how is Boyle at $2.5M not reasonable? You need guys like him, too.
To further reinforce his point, what he is saying is...

We could

a) spend $3M on Boyle, a home grown, dedicated, 4th line grinder/shutdown guy...
b) spend $3M on XYZPlayer, an unfamiliar, UFA, Mercenary player, who will be our 4th line Grinder/Shutdown guy...

Why would anyone choose b?

Better idea, let's get out of our vacuum here...

Boyle is probably going to want $2.5 AT MOST (same as Prust), and that doesn't exactly mean that he'll get 2.5, since his offensive production is horrific (which is fine, he's a 4th liner).

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02-18-2014, 07:21 PM
  #839
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
Take out both of their best and worst seasons. For Boyle, I'm taking out his stellar 4 goal 2 assist performance in 71 games rather than his 2 goal 5 assist in 38 game performance since he's producing more points per game in that season.

Kelly: 528gp, 82g, 194p
Goals per game: .155
Points per game: .254

Boyle: 215gp, 25g, 43p
Goals per game: .116
Points per game: .20

Boyle has scored over 10 goals twice and they were in consecutive years: 21 goals and then 11 goals. He hasn't score more than 4 in a year in any other year he's been in the league.

Kelly has scored over 10 goals 7 times in his career and he'd be on pace for 9/10 this year if he played in all 82 games.
If anything that just shows how similar they are production wise.

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02-18-2014, 07:24 PM
  #840
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If anything that just shows how similar they are production wise.
.05 goals means 5 goals more per average every 100 games. 4 per season in an 82 game season.

I think it shows Kelly's offensive potential is consistently higher.

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02-18-2014, 07:26 PM
  #841
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
You're both missing the point though.

If we signed Chris Kelly to that contract, everyone would be complaining. It would be a waste of assets, a replaceable player from within. We could call up someone from the farm to do what he does.

You need guys like Chris Kelly and if he gets $3M, then how is Boyle at $2.5M not reasonable? You need guys like him, too.
rather have a guy like Lindberg be given a look to replace Boyle... someone younger and cheaper and has played in the SEL with players that have experience.

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02-18-2014, 07:29 PM
  #842
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rather have a guy like Lindberg be given a look to replace Boyle... someone younger and cheaper and has played in the SEL with players that have experience.
Yea, cause who gives a **** that they're completely different players? Not like that matters.

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02-18-2014, 07:31 PM
  #843
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.05 goals means 5 goals more per average every 100 games. 4 per season in an 82 game season.

I think it shows Kelly's offensive potential is consistently higher.
I am well aware of statistics. But a .2 vs .25 ppg ratio? Still only a 4 point difference between the two.

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02-18-2014, 07:33 PM
  #844
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Yea, cause who gives a **** that they're completely different players? Not like that matters.
We've seen how great penciling prospects into the lineup works out.

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02-18-2014, 07:35 PM
  #845
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I am well aware of statistics. But a .2 vs .25 ppg ratio? Still only a 4 point difference between the two.
I think a 4 goal difference/yr for a 4th liner is relatively high in contract negotiations. And by that I mean a .8-.5 difference in annual salary.

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02-18-2014, 07:44 PM
  #846
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There is a very good shot we lose Callahan, Girardi, and Richards this offseason. That's our captain, our alternate, and our backup alternate. Our other alternate captain (Staal) is no sure bet to be here the year after either.

That is a TON of leadership to lose, especially for a young team. Boyle is a true leader on this team. We should retain Boyle if at all possible. I'd bite the bullet for anything under 2.5M.

If Lindberg plays his way on this team, Boyle could be moved to wing or moved out all together. He's tradable even at 2.5M. No need to pre-emptively open a spot for Lindberg. We did that for Kreider, who actually proved himself on the NHL Playoff level and was twice the prospect Lindberg is, and it was still a disaster.

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02-18-2014, 07:46 PM
  #847
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I think a 4 goal difference/yr for a 4th liner is relatively high in contract negotiations. And by that I mean a .8-.5 difference in annual salary.
Okay, so Kelly got $3M. So giving Boyle $2.2-2.5 is fine by you?

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02-18-2014, 07:49 PM
  #848
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rather have a guy like Lindberg be given a look to replace Boyle... someone younger and cheaper and has played in the SEL with players that have experience.
This is what I'm talking about.

I guess we could do that at every position? Replace Cally with Fast, Replace Boyle with Lindberg, Replace Stralman or Girardi with McIlrath, Replace Richards with Miller (I'm okay with this one).

You have to balance calling guys up with retaining continuity. It is imperative to building a team. No big deal if Lindberg starts in the AHL, gets called up when someone gets hurt, and plays his way into the lineup.

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02-18-2014, 07:49 PM
  #849
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There is a very good shot we lose Callahan, Girardi, and Richards this offseason. That's our captain, our alternate, and our backup alternate. Our other alternate captain (Staal) is no sure bet to be here the year after either.

That is a TON of leadership to lose, especially for a young team. Boyle is a true leader on this team. We should retain Boyle if at all possible. I'd bite the bullet for anything under 2.5M.

If Lindberg plays his way on this team, Boyle could be moved to wing or moved out all together. He's tradable even at 2.5M. No need to pre-emptively open a spot for Lindberg. We did that for Kreider, who actually proved himself on the NHL Playoff level and was twice the prospect Lindberg is, and it was still a disaster.
Agreed, 100%

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02-18-2014, 07:50 PM
  #850
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Okay, so Kelly got $3M. So giving Boyle $2.2-2.5 is fine by you?
Yes. It is.

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