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Are the Avs really better than us?

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Old
08-09-2005, 08:18 AM
  #1
Ajacied
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Are the Avs really better than us?

I have no problem with fans not thinking very highly of us, I like being in the underdog position. I also don't see the Stars as a top 5 team in the league, but I do feel that the Stars and their bitter rivals the Avalanche are currently extremely alike. However, the Stars are rarely talked about in the good sense the Avs are. In every predicition thread, the Avs are in the playoffs, while the Stars are out of it. I've even seen someone having the Stars finishing 14th in the conference..

I don't see this supposed huge differential, to be honest.. Neither team has a clear edge at any position, the biggest edge is in net where Turco is superior to Aebischer, who isn't chopped liver mind you, but Turco is IMO just that good.

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08-09-2005, 09:03 AM
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The edge between Turco and Aebis is not that big, especially in the play-offs.

In fact, you can make a case for Aebis being the better of the two, strictly using stats that is.

2000-01 COLO, NHL 26 12 7 3 1392 52 3 2.24 0 538 0.90
2001-02 COLO, NHL 21 13 6 0 1184 37 2 1.88 4 538 0.93
2002-03 COLO, NHL 22 7 12 0 1235 50 1 2.43 4 593 0.92
2003-04 COLO, NHL 62 32 19 9 3702 129 4 2.09 0 1703 0.92

Play-offs:
2003-04 COLO, NHL 11 6 5 0 662 23 1 2.08 0 295 0.92

Turco:

2000-01 DALL, NHL 26 13 6 1 1263 40 3 1.90 12 532 0.92
2001-02 DALL, NHL 31 15 6 2 1519 53 2 2.09 10 670 0.92
2002-03 DALL, NHL 55 31 10 10 3203 92 7 1.72 16 1359 0.93
2003-04 DALL, NHL 73 37 21 13 4359 144 9 1.98 0 1648 0.91

play-offs:
2002-03 DALL, NHL 12 6 6 0 798 25 0 1.88 8 310 0.92
2003-04 DALL, NHL 5 1 4 0 325 18 0 3.32 0 119 0.85


But the sample size is so small with both that the error margin is considerable.

Turco => Aebischer but no more

Otherwise, Avs have easily the better topline, whether it's > or >> or even >>> is debatable.

Lot depends what kind of performance Modano will give, if he's as bad as last season, Avs have a clear advantage in forwards. If Modano returns to his usual level, it's close.

Defensively I like Avs bottom 2 pairings more than Stars, first 2 pairings are very close.

So IMHO Avs are ahead but how much really depends on Modano.

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08-09-2005, 09:13 AM
  #3
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Of course they're better than us... They have Turgeon!

Really though, I agree that they arent much better off than us. They have a great first line, assuming that Sakic is still decent. Beyond that, they have an okay-at-best 2nd line, and crappy 3rd and 4th.

We have our great MAG line, and then a second line that should be decent, depending on who plays with MO. Behind that, we have Barnes, Kapanen and Ott, who should fill out 2 pretty solid depth lines.

Both teams have very questionable defense, while we have the better goaltending.

So... I agree, we shouldn't do much worse than them. The big difference is that we don't have a 50 goal scorer, and they don't have depth (though I may only be pretending that we have depth because I'm a fan).

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08-09-2005, 09:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pmb1290
Really though, I agree that they arent much better off than us. They have a great first line, assuming that Sakic is still decent. Beyond that, they have an okay-at-best 2nd line, and crappy 3rd and 4th.
I wouldn't say that our 3rd and 4th line are crappy. 2nd ... may be, yes it's crappy if you compare it with last year 2nd line. But 3rd and 4th are the best we've seen last years : Kono, Lappy, Hinote, Laaksonen, Brunette, Hinote, Hahl, Maclean, May.

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08-09-2005, 10:25 AM
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crappy 3,4 lines?

wtf.. Konowalchuk,Laperriere,Laaksonen.. Those guys are decent 3 line players. I don't get it.

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Old
08-09-2005, 10:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Color@do @v@l@nche
crappy 3,4 lines?

wtf.. Konowalchuk,Laperriere,Laaksonen.. Those guys are decent 3 line players. I don't get it.
I agree.. But I think that what he meant by it that they don't provide any scoring, or at least not much. The role's of the forwards of the Avs are either offensive, or defensive. There's nothing in between.

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08-09-2005, 04:09 PM
  #7
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Look below, double post.

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08-09-2005, 04:10 PM
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Don't feel bad, Star fans. Some teams projected Avs to miss playoff, or on the bottom 4/ 5th in the division.

Oh, almost all other teams dismissed us from the division title.

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08-09-2005, 04:25 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Color@do @v@l@nche
crappy 3,4 lines?

***.. Konowalchuk,Laperriere,Laaksonen.. Those guys are decent 3 line players. I don't get it.
I was thinking that Konowalchuk would end up on the second line...

And apparently I'm underestimating the other guys.

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08-09-2005, 04:28 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaizer
I wouldn't say that our 3rd and 4th line are crappy. 2nd ... may be, yes it's crappy if you compare it with last year 2nd line. But 3rd and 4th are the best we've seen last years : Kono, Lappy, Hinote, Laaksonen, Brunette, Hinote, Hahl, Maclean, May.
Wow... It just clicked for the first time that the Avs lost an entire line of all-stars in the off season.

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08-09-2005, 07:19 PM
  #11
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It's going to look something like this

Updated payroll (millions)

Tanguay($3,23)-Sakic($6,664,797)-Hejduk($3,9) = $13,794,797
Brunette($0,8)-Turgeon($1,5)-Svatos($0,495) = $2,795,000
Konowalchuk($1,9)-McLean($0,45)-Laperriere($1,14) = $3,490,000
Laaksonen($0,646)-Hahl($0,495)-Hinote($0,643,720) = $1,784,720

May($0,65) = $650,000
McCormick($0,45) = $450,000


Offense total: $22,964,517
____________________________



Blake($6,364,111 )-Vaananen($0,95) = 7,304,111
Skrastins($1,425)-Brisebois($2,25) = 3,675,000
Boughner($0,95)-Liles($0,495) = 1,445,000

Sauer($0,758,100) = $758,100


Defense total : $13,182,211
_____________________________

Aebischer($1,9) = $1,900,000
Budaj($0,495) = $495,000


Goalies total : $2,395,000

_____________________________

All total: $38,531,728

to question.. I think AVS are better, but now we just have to wait and see.

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Old
08-09-2005, 07:39 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pmb1290
Wow... It just clicked for the first time that the Avs lost an entire line of all-stars in the off season.
you mean Forsberg, Kariya/ Selanne? Well, two out of three were not producing last season. Not that I have anything against Kariya/ Selanne.

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08-09-2005, 09:03 PM
  #13
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I've said it before and I'll say it again... the Avs are in trouble if Svatos is their second-best talent on the right wing.

"But you idiot, Svatos scored 6 points in the playoffs before the lockout!"

And since then, he's done nothing. If you were to compare Jani Rita and Svatos' seasons in the AHL as 22/23 year-olds, you'd see that Svatos outscored him by a whopping 5 points. That is not good pedigree, and this is coming from an Oilers fan.

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08-09-2005, 09:12 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mules
you mean Forsberg, Kariya/ Selanne? Well, two out of three were not producing last season. Not that I have anything against Kariya/ Selanne.
Yeah I know.. I was just commenting on how much stronger the team looked on paper because of them. It's strange seeing a team lose that much - this CBA is going to take some getting used to.

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08-09-2005, 09:23 PM
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I am guessing the stars may not be done , a 3/4 winger may be likely but

Morrow-Arnott-Guerin
Miets-Mo-Lets
ott-Barnes-Lessard
Svoboda-Kaps-Tjarnqvist

The last line is really shaky with no true LW. Dimaio who can lay anywhere would be nice. I still would like Bure with Mo and Miets with Kap and either Jr or Matias.

The defense will be okay but again I think it shows how little they think of Erskine by getting Robidas

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08-10-2005, 03:51 AM
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At least we can sleep soundly knowing that we didn't trade Phil Sauve for a 7th round pick.

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Old
08-10-2005, 03:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pmb1290
At least we can sleep soundly knowing that we didn't trade Phil Sauve for a 7th round pick.
Actualy that'll help me sleep more than anything.

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Old
08-10-2005, 06:44 AM
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Yes they are still better than you, but they are weak so get your gritty players out there. Remember no more obstruction

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Old
08-14-2005, 03:53 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg
I've said it before and I'll say it again... the Avs are in trouble if Svatos is their second-best talent on the right wing.

"But you idiot, Svatos scored 6 points in the playoffs before the lockout!"

And since then, he's done nothing. If you were to compare Jani Rita and Svatos' seasons in the AHL as 22/23 year-olds, you'd see that Svatos outscored him by a whopping 5 points. That is not good pedigree, and this is coming from an Oilers fan.
The Bears were a weak team last year. I just hope Svatos will stay healthy next season. I don't expect 20 goals from him this season, about 12-15 should be good enough. A lot of teams has watered down talents, so I don't see our situation is any different than other teams.

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08-14-2005, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pmb1290
Both teams have very questionable defense, while we have the better goaltending.

So... I agree, we shouldn't do much worse than them. The big difference is that we don't have a 50 goal scorer, and they don't have depth (though I may only be pretending that we have depth because I'm a fan).
How is Colorado's defense questionable?

We have 7 NHL defenseman... you guys have 4, if that.

How do we lack depth?

We have 14 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies.

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Old
08-14-2005, 07:20 PM
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Whee, an Avs lovefest.

Something to think about - Stars will likely have more cap flexibility (I bet they top out at $37 million with a raise to Morrow), so if they have a glaring need, they will have a lot more flexibility with which to fill it.

The Avs forwards, beyond the very, very good first line, don't strike me as much of a threat. Maybe it's been because I've seen Turgeon for the past three years and, although a hell of a passer, have been less than thrilled with him. Each team has question marks as to how the defense will come together, and Turco is marginally better than Aebischer (as in, I'd definitely take Turco first in a fantasy draft but I wouldn't drop Aebischer that far from him).

And RIAL - I think the point was the Avs lack depth that scares anyone. Yes, you have an NHL lineup that doesn't include any rookies, but your bottom five forwards and bottom three d-men aren't anything to be writing home about.

I can't say who's better. I think the Stars will be better earlier in the year because they have all their main cogs in place from the past few seasons, especially on their top two lines. The Avs are still going to be getting familiar with each other

What might be really intersting is to see how much each team has changed (who left and who's been gained). I'll go first.

Stars
Lost (of guys who were more than just injury fill-ins):
Turgeon, Young, Tugnutt, Matvichuk, Numminen, DiMaio, Downey

Gained (who will probably see NHL ice and including rookies I think will be up):
Hagos, Lessard, Hedberg, Skoula
(d-men who will be up and saw nominal time last year - Robidas, Erskine, Daley - all are familiar with the Stars and their personel).

To me, that seems like a fairly normal off-season rather than the full-scale retooling some of the other teams in the NHL are doing. They lost one top line player (Young or Turgeon, depending on who was pushing up on the LW that night), two d-men who really didn't do all that much and a backup goalie. For a team that had 97 points the last time they played in the midst of some key players horrific slumps, I don't mind that movement at all.

Anyone wanna go through the Avs for me?

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08-14-2005, 08:36 PM
  #22
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Edge Avs.

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08-14-2005, 09:14 PM
  #23
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Skoula = Briesbois

Push.

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Old
08-14-2005, 09:52 PM
  #24
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This is one funny thread

I need to remind you something. Even some Avalanche fans need to focus on this.
People forget we got Laperriere, Laaksonen, Vaananen.. we got some awesome players during our last offseason. Lacroix did his job for the cancelled season and those players are fine and ready to go!

We do have a super solid team and some fans need to open their eyes.
Lacroix has made a great offseason again this year by signing Brisebois, Turgeon, Brunette.. And donŽt forget about the regular season, we can still make some trades. IŽll never forget how Konowalchuk was stolen. Both teams usually make some good offseason moves, the Avs lost two big stars but I have faith weŽll have a better season than we had last year.

The Stars have a pretty solid team too. You guys are prepared to a brand new NHL season and so are we. We just have to wait now.
I wish you all a good season, canŽt wait to watch some Avs x Stars action going on! Good luck Stars. Go AvS GO!

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Old
08-14-2005, 11:29 PM
  #25
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the stars will be better than the avs this season IMO.
We'll get to see the teams play on October 8th, I can't wait.

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