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PP points, the deception at the CHL level

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02-28-2014, 12:11 PM
  #1
Jason MacIsaac
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PP points, the deception at the CHL level

It drive me absolutely insane that the CHL doesn't just list ES points on their website. When determining if a prospect is indeed progressing people quickly look at their point totals. I believe how a player translates to the pro ranks offensively has more to do with ES points. Are there any prospects who look like they have average numbers but simply don't get as many PP points as the league leaders. For NJ Ben Johnson is clearly the winner in this category. He doesn't play on either PP unit but has excellent ES numbers.

Johnson has 49 points in 52 games but only 4 goals 3 assists on the PP giving him a pretty strong 20 goals, 22 assists non PP in 52 games. Brady Vail, a comparable draft pick has 79 points in 61 games. Without PP points he has 52 points in 61 games, most likely with stronger linemates and icetime. Vail maybe able to play the PP at the next level, I highly doubt it.

Graham Black is another who 24 of his 82 points are on the PP. That is a respectable ratio as well.

Does anyone have any prospects similar to Johnson? Very noticeable 5 on 5.


Last edited by Jason MacIsaac: 02-28-2014 at 12:23 PM.
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02-28-2014, 12:18 PM
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31 of Josh Morrissey's 63 points have come on the PP.
32 of Derrick Pouiot's 62 points have come on the PP.
39 of Max Domi's 84 points have come on the PP.
50 of Connor Brown's 113 points have come on the PP.

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02-28-2014, 12:52 PM
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Flair Hay
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Last year Morrissey fell into the exact situation you're describing. Darnell Nurse as well iirc. I can't recall exact numbers, but the Oilers SB Nation blog had a wrote up on the exact premise of your post and how it related to the 2013 draft class.

Found it: http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/4/...josh-morrissey

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02-28-2014, 12:55 PM
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Shea Theodore should be another player who will have a high power play point percentage.

Troy Bourke would be a very interesting player for this discussion because he has a ton of primary assists, but I don't many of it is on the powerplay.

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02-28-2014, 12:56 PM
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of Horvats 68 points this year only 8 have come on the powerplay

edit:I might only be looking at goals

edit: I was, what a stupid layout

He's got 8 goals and 17 assists on the powerplay


Last edited by Ryp37: 02-28-2014 at 01:03 PM.
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02-28-2014, 12:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
32 of Derrick Pouiot's 62 points have come on the PP.
Good. He was drafted to be a PP QB, the one thing the Penguins have been sorely lacking on the point since Gonchar departed, I want him putting up PP numbers.

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02-28-2014, 01:01 PM
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Jason MacIsaac
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It is an interesting debate, I know when NJ drafted Larsson Lou mentions he is able to play in all situations. A guy like Theodore looks like he will be a sheltered defensmen 5 on 5 and play PP. Guy's who can eat 1st PK and 1st ES minutes allow the organization to use specialization players.

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02-28-2014, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Shea Theodore should be another player who will have a high power play point percentage.

Troy Bourke would be a very interesting player for this discussion because he has a ton of primary assists, but I don't many of it is on the powerplay.
32 of his 78 points are from the PP.

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02-28-2014, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
32 of his 78 points are from the PP.
Which one, Bourke or Theodore?

It is a really interesting debate you brought up because I personally put much more stock in 5v5 play than greater point total due to powerplay points.

IE: Landeskog vs RNH (King of 5v5 against the King of PP), currently Landeskog has been the better player of the draft.

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02-28-2014, 01:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Which one, Bourke or Theodore?

It is a really interesting debate you brought up because I personally put much more stock in 5v5 play than greater point total due to powerplay points.

IE: Landeskog vs RNH (King of 5v5 against the King of PP), currently Landeskog has been the better player of the draft.
Bourke's totals and I agree, it was a reason I didn't rank Grigorenko all that well. He took all the offensive zone faceoffs and put up an obscene amount on the PP.

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02-28-2014, 01:25 PM
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This type of thread is what makes HF great. Good discussion.

Tough to measure Nuge and Landeskog's output. They're both incredibly young, and one teams is trending the right way and the other is sinking.

Switch the teams and I wonder how that comparison goes.
----

PP points are a good indicator of skills though. If you're not being asked to play PP as junior, it doesn't really project that you'll have those skills at the higher levels. If you're not a PP player in the CHL, you have to think you're 3rd line upside for the pro's.

EV strength production is a good indicator or pro production, but PP is essential. It separates the good players from the best players.

I think position also plays a huge factor into how these PP producers in junior will make the transition. A dman almost 100% needs to be able to produce points in the CHL to be able to make the transition.

It would be interesting to go further back when analyzing these things, because it seems far too early to be discussing draftees from 2010 and later in these types of conversations.

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02-28-2014, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
This type of thread is what makes HF great. Good discussion.

Tough to measure Nuge and Landeskog's output. They're both incredibly young, and one teams is trending the right way and the other is sinking.

Switch the teams and I wonder how that comparison goes.
----

PP points are a good indicator of skills though. If you're not being asked to play PP as junior, it doesn't really project that you'll have those skills at the higher levels. If you're not a PP player in the CHL, you have to think you're 3rd line upside for the pro's.

EV strength production is a good indicator or pro production, but PP is essential. It separates the good players from the best players.

I think position also plays a huge factor into how these PP producers in junior will make the transition. A dman almost 100% needs to be able to produce points in the CHL to be able to make the transition.

It would be interesting to go further back when analyzing these things, because it seems far too early to be discussing draftees from 2010 and later in these types of conversations.
I don't really agree with that, Zubrus is a case of a guy who works well on top 6 but doesn't play PP. Strong even strength players don't have to play PP minutes. That is where the construction of a roster is very interesting. I believe it is harder to get guys who can contribute 5 on 5 than PP specialist. Grabovski is a perfect example.

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02-28-2014, 01:57 PM
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If only there was some way to watch prospects play and see how they actually produce

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02-28-2014, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
I don't really agree with that, Zubrus is a case of a guy who works well on top 6 but doesn't play PP. Strong even strength players don't have to play PP minutes. That is where the construction of a roster is very interesting. I believe it is harder to get guys who can contribute 5 on 5 than PP specialist. Grabovski is a perfect example.
I cheer for the Canucks. We have Chris Higgins and Jannick Hansen, who most of this board would not consider top 6 forwards, but for the past two years have produced extremely well at EV strength (top 60 for their positions).

Not many people would consider them top 6 forwards, and not many people would be willing to move proficient PP talent to acquire them.

Grabovski is a good example of a team not having a clue what they had until they lost him. There is a reason Kadri looks worse this year, and it's because Grabo isn't eating the toughest minutes on the team.

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02-28-2014, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
If only there was some way to watch prospects play and see how they actually produce
I tried to retweet this, then remembered I was on HF.

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02-28-2014, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
If only there was some way to watch prospects play and see how they actually produce
Woah is me.

I actually think this is a very interesting topic and it's not like the guys who watch them every day have never gotten something wrong before. Hate this type of attitude. Save us all and just don't post if you don't like it. It ain't that hard.

Or you know, bring something to the conversation. Honestly.....

HFboards is good because of this type of discussion, it's bad when posts like this pop up.

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02-28-2014, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
If only there was some way to watch prospects play and see how they actually produce
Why even record points...? Everyone should just watch every game.

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02-28-2014, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zjh View Post
I tried to retweet this, then remembered I was on HF.
And then I remembered that I was on HF when people trashed a good discussion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
This type of thread is what makes HF great. Good discussion.

Tough to measure Nuge and Landeskog's output. They're both incredibly young, and one teams is trending the right way and the other is sinking.

Switch the teams and I wonder how that comparison goes.
You're right that hockey is a team sport, but RNH has had one good season (his rookie year) and half of his points (generalizing) that year came on the powerplay.

Quote:
PP points are a good indicator of skills though. If you're not being asked to play PP as junior, it doesn't really project that you'll have those skills at the higher levels. If you're not a PP player in the CHL, you have to think you're 3rd line upside for the pro's.

EV strength production is a good indicator or pro production, but PP is essential. It separates the good players from the best players.

I think position also plays a huge factor into how these PP producers in junior will make the transition. A dman almost 100% needs to be able to produce points in the CHL to be able to make the transition.

It would be interesting to go further back when analyzing these things, because it seems far too early to be discussing draftees from 2010 and later in these types of conversations.
Oh absolutely, take what is given to you, but there is a point where 5v5 is a greater scenario to deem if a prospect is "that" skilled or not. Seeing a player dominant 5v5 at a level playing field to me is greater indicator of players who are better at advantages.

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02-28-2014, 03:49 PM
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What if the player is able to translate that PP success though?

Say RNH keeps trending with numbers like his rookie season. If he's an even 80 point player with 35 points on the PP, is he a worse player than if he was a +15 80 point player with 20 points on the PP? Is he not on the ice for the same amount of goals for and against?


And like posted above, Derrick Pouliot was drafted to be a strong PP player. Don't you want to see him have a ton of success on the PP in juniors then? Is it not the same for most offensive players that you'll want on the PP?

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02-28-2014, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
What if the player is able to translate that PP success though?

Say RNH keeps trending with numbers like his rookie season. If he's an even 80 point player with 35 points on the PP, is he a worse player than if he was a +15 80 point player with 20 points on the PP? Is he not on the ice for the same amount of goals for and against?


And like posted above, Derrick Pouliot was drafted to be a strong PP player. Don't you want to see him have a ton of success on the PP in juniors then? Is it not the same for most offensive players that you'll want on the PP?
The real problem is deciphering who and why they can at the next level. Almost all top prospects will be getting top PP time on their respective teams, but it's tough to tell if that will ever translate to the next level.

For example if I recall correctly Jets prospect and Kelowna Rockets forward Ryan Olsen gets a lot of his points from the PP. However he's billed as being a bottom 6 grinder at the next level. Will he even get PP time at the next level and if not how effective will he actually be at 5 on 5 without PP time boosting his stats?

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02-28-2014, 04:07 PM
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The real problem is deciphering who and why they can at the next level. Almost all top prospects will be getting top PP time on their respective teams, but it's tough to tell if that will ever translate to the next level.

For example if I recall correctly Jets prospect and Kelowna Rockets forward Ryan Olsen gets a lot of his points from the PP. However he's billed as being a bottom 6 grinder at the next level. Will he even get PP time at the next level and if not how effective will he actually be at 5 on 5 without PP time boosting his stats?
That's kind of what I was alluding to.

You have to watch the player. You can't just automatically put a lesser value on PP points.

You can have a player like Ryan Olsen who looks like a young Shawn Horcoff having pucks banked in off his rear or a player like RNH or Derrick Pouliot who are collecting points with elite vision and passing.

The OP's view is too black and white.

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02-28-2014, 06:28 PM
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Jason MacIsaac
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
If only there was some way to watch prospects play and see how they actually produce
That's if you trust your eye to be non bias, 95% of the people who watch hockey can't do that. I would say a large percentage of the scouts can't do this.

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02-28-2014, 06:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zjh View Post
I tried to retweet this, then remembered I was on HF.
Come on, don't give me that stuff. I sat though the online meeting for FC draft rankings and I was embaressed. There was no talk about the minutes the prospects were getting, the zone starts they were getting or what role they would be able to play at the next level. Regardless of what you believe Sabremetrics mean they will be incorporated into scouting because the eye doesn't pick up everything and really, at the end of the day what do you remember of certain games in October other then short hand notes.

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02-28-2014, 06:35 PM
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And to think there is a rumour that Montreal might not sign Vail...

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02-28-2014, 06:37 PM
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Jason MacIsaac
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
That's kind of what I was alluding to.

You have to watch the player. You can't just automatically put a lesser value on PP points.

You can have a player like Ryan Olsen who looks like a young Shawn Horcoff having pucks banked in off his rear or a player like RNH or Derrick Pouliot who are collecting points with elite vision and passing.

The OP's view is too black and white.
I agree, but thats where the human eye has to be incorporated with what the stats say. Are his skills good enough to translate on the PP at the NHL level. 80% of these top prospects that isn't the case. A player like McDavid is at a different level because he can contibute on the PP, SH and ES at the next level. You get a few of those players on a team and all you need is ES players.

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