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Old
03-17-2014, 04:10 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
I don't think it's "proven". It's hard to judge of course, because they generally play with the anchor, or other anchors of various varieties.
Beaulieu was already pulling up Murray while playing on his off-side. That's a pretty good clue that he's better than Murray already (and probably Bouillon as well).

(No idea why Beaulieu isn't with the big club. Didn't I get told Diaz was traded to make room for him? )

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I also feel like Murray could be reeled in a little better and might do better with a full camp and preparation out of the gate. It might be wishful thinking. But still worth what amounts to essentially a no-risk contract IMHO.
It's wishful thinking. Murray is performing at pretty much the level he's been performing for years now. And I wouldn't call it no-risk; 1.5M is a lot for a player who shouldn't play, and the risk is that Therrien will maintain his strange fascination with the guy's size and keep playing him. We already see now that he will use him despite having better options available.

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03-17-2014, 04:11 PM
  #77
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I've always been struck by that TV show where they had Parros, one of the very worst forwards in the NHL, take shots on a sumo-suited goalie. Given time and no pressure, he could wrist it in the corners pretty much at will. Compared to NHLers he's terrible, but compared to the general population he's insanely good.

All comments about how he's "not a hockey player" have to be viewed in the context of the NHL talent level. But yes, that's an incredibly high bar. It is, however, the bar the Habs are dealing with. And, well, while Parros is probably an awesome hockey player compared to the vast majority of the planet, that is not actually why the Habs employ him.

Mentally add "at the NHL level" to all those "can't play hockey" comments, as that's really the spirit in which they are meant.
Parros? This is the Douglas Murray thread. I realize you want to draw a parallel but Murray has skills and is taking a regular shift etc. He's an NHLer and I'd think another team would sign him if we let him walk.


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03-17-2014, 04:23 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Devourers View Post
Not saying he can't play hockey, but if the cap does end up going up more than expected because of the Rogers deal, we'll have enough space to play around barring Gionta being re-signed. Bourque could potentially be bought out too. We have some room to acquire a better d-man than Murray.

I just don't want that 1.5m to stop us from doing so. Guys like Vanek and Subban will take a big chunk, guys like Eller will nip little pieces of our cap away, Markov if he stays will be a chunk too. But even at 71m we could overpay those guys and be under cap if we don't keep Murray/Gio and we buy out Bourque.

I know I'm probably dreaming thinking our management is good enough to pull anything off, but there are certainly some decent dmen available that are better than Murray.
I hope we can upgrade Murray yes but wouldn't you rather spend the money on our top six rather than on a third-pairing defenceman? used properly Murray does his job well. It's too bad his is a role that can't be evaluated well with fancystats.

Anyway would prefer Tinordi and Pateryn over Murray and Bouillon for sure, simply because younger players are expected to improve and are cheaper. But Murray is one-of-a-kind with his wall-like presence few other D can stand wingers up at the blueline or clear the crease with an effortless shove.

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03-17-2014, 04:33 PM
  #79
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I hope we can upgrade Murray yes but wouldn't you rather spend the money on our top six rather than on a third-pairing defenceman? used properly Murray does his job well. It's too bad his is a role that can't be evaluated well with fancystats.

Anyway would prefer Tinordi and Pateryn over Murray and Bouillon for sure, simply because younger players are expected to improve and are cheaper. But Murray is one-of-a-kind with his wall-like presence few other D can stand wingers up at the blueline or clear the crease with an effortless shove.
There are plenty of third pairing D we can have who do their jobs much better than murray and would actually cost less. This idea that murray can do any job that helps an NHL team is absurd. He hasn't helped all year. He's an anchor.

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03-17-2014, 04:33 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by JLP View Post
Parros? This is the Douglas Murray thread. I realize you want to draw a parallel but Murray has skills and is taking a regular shift etc. He's an NHLer and I'd think another team would sign him if we let him walk.
Then why did two of the best teams in the league get rid of him and then nobody wanted him until late August? Why are we making decisions that teams like the Penguins and Sharks have decided aren't in their best interests? I'd rather not emulate the Oilers or Leafs if at all possible.


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03-17-2014, 04:47 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by JLP View Post
I wish people would stop posting comments like "Murray can't play hockey" when in fact, "hockey player" is his profession and he's in the best league in the world.
Or, said differently, if Doug Murray was playing center in your beer league he would be an offensive superstar.

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03-17-2014, 04:54 PM
  #82
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If you look at Murray's game log, there are really only three truly atrocious games early in the season to dismiss: 10-29 against the Stars (11.8% CF in a 2-1 Habs win), 11-05 against the Blues (10.0% CF in the 3-2 SO loss), and 11-15 against the Jackets (a staggering 9.1% CF in a 3-2 SO win, a game in which the Habs posted a 58% CF ratio 5-on-5... he was an incredible -49% relative to the rest of the team!).

He's had 3 games in his last 10 that have been amongst the best of his season, I'll grant that; the wins against Boston, Ottawa, and Pittsburgh. But the entire rest of his season reads as a sea of negative possession numbers. He really hasn't improved that much.


But at least with PK on the ice we hold our own in terms of the score, and when the game is close we come out positive (PK, Markov and Gorges are all positive 5-on-5 close players). With Murray on the ice we're not just negative; we're deeply negative, to the tune of, as I said, about 1.5 goals per 60 minutes. When you make the score close, Murray actually gets worse, to over 2.0 goals per 60! Amongst not just defencemen, but all players with 300+ minutes in 5-on-5 close play, that is 2nd worst in the league. (Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...T&sortdir=DESC)

Look, here's one last one for you. This table shows the GF/20 and GA/20 numbers for everyone on the Habs, in 5-on-5 play, both with and without Murray on the ice. If Murray is not the giant pool of suck that I & others say he is, the numbers shouldn't skew too much one way or the other. Lars Eller for example shouldn't suddenly be on the ice for many more GA with Murray than without him, or DD shouldn't suddenly be unable to score with the big man out there.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...013-14&sit=5v5

Here's the top 5 guys who've played with Murray the most (GF/20 first, then GA/20):

Eller with Murray 0.133 / 1.062 without 0.557 / 0.807
DD with Murray 0.277 / 0.554 without 0.829 / 0.663
MaxPac with Murray 0.280 / 0.669 without 0.845 / 0.782
Bourque with Murray 0.281 / 0.844 without 0.479 / 0.479
Gallagher with Murray 0.439 / 0.731 without 0.972 / 0.675

So... three of the five guys surrender fewer goals per 20 minutes when Murray is off the ice, instead of when he's on it. DD & MaxPac surrender slightly fewer goals when he's on, but they can't generate a goal to save their skins in the process. Gallagher goes from an outscoring beast to a scrub. Even Bourque, that general waste of space, looks sort of OK by this measure if you get him away from Murray.

PK isn't immune to the Murray effect either: with Murray 0.441 / 1.322, without 0.791 / 0.744.

If you can look at all that and still say, "Well Murray's not a problem," then I've got nothing else to say.
That was a lot of work to summarize what we already knew: a defensive defenseman is going to improve people's GA numbers, and hurt their GF numbers. Now for this to mean anything, I'd like to see these numbers for the same players when they're on with Bouillon, or Emelin, or Weaver, or Diaz, or even Beaulieu/Tinordi - i.e. the 4 other 2014 in-house options for #5/6 defenseman. I'll give you a hint: you're going to run into issues when you notice that this same analysis shows that PK Subban is negatively affecting Bouillon's offensive AND defensive numbers, lol.

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03-17-2014, 04:57 PM
  #83
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I'd be inclined to think the Habs players like having Murray on the team.

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03-17-2014, 05:54 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
If you look at Murray's game log, there are really only three truly atrocious games early in the season to dismiss: 10-29 against the Stars (11.8% CF in a 2-1 Habs win), 11-05 against the Blues (10.0% CF in the 3-2 SO loss), and 11-15 against the Jackets (a staggering 9.1% CF in a 3-2 SO win, a game in which the Habs posted a 58% CF ratio 5-on-5... he was an incredible -49% relative to the rest of the team!).

He's had 3 games in his last 10 that have been amongst the best of his season, I'll grant that; the wins against Boston, Ottawa, and Pittsburgh. But the entire rest of his season reads as a sea of negative possession numbers. He really hasn't improved that much.


But at least with PK on the ice we hold our own in terms of the score, and when the game is close we come out positive (PK, Markov and Gorges are all positive 5-on-5 close players). With Murray on the ice we're not just negative; we're deeply negative, to the tune of, as I said, about 1.5 goals per 60 minutes. When you make the score close, Murray actually gets worse, to over 2.0 goals per 60! Amongst not just defencemen, but all players with 300+ minutes in 5-on-5 close play, that is 2nd worst in the league. (Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...T&sortdir=DESC)

Look, here's one last one for you. This table shows the GF/20 and GA/20 numbers for everyone on the Habs, in 5-on-5 play, both with and without Murray on the ice. If Murray is not the giant pool of suck that I & others say he is, the numbers shouldn't skew too much one way or the other. Lars Eller for example shouldn't suddenly be on the ice for many more GA with Murray than without him, or DD shouldn't suddenly be unable to score with the big man out there.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...013-14&sit=5v5

Here's the top 5 guys who've played with Murray the most (GF/20 first, then GA/20):

Eller with Murray 0.133 / 1.062 without 0.557 / 0.807
DD with Murray 0.277 / 0.554 without 0.829 / 0.663
MaxPac with Murray 0.280 / 0.669 without 0.845 / 0.782
Bourque with Murray 0.281 / 0.844 without 0.479 / 0.479
Gallagher with Murray 0.439 / 0.731 without 0.972 / 0.675

So... three of the five guys surrender fewer goals per 20 minutes when Murray is off the ice, instead of when he's on it. DD & MaxPac surrender slightly fewer goals when he's on, but they can't generate a goal to save their skins in the process. Gallagher goes from an outscoring beast to a scrub. Even Bourque, that general waste of space, looks sort of OK by this measure if you get him away from Murray.

PK isn't immune to the Murray effect either: with Murray 0.441 / 1.322, without 0.791 / 0.744.

If you can look at all that and still say, "Well Murray's not a problem," then I've got nothing else to say.
What I highlighted in bold. I agree with you. You really dont have nothing else to say.

You are cherry picking stats for a #6 stay-at-home DMan who provides needed toughness to this team.

I can cherry pick stats as well. And even from your own site who believes that a GA20 is somehow better than a GA/60.

Here you go.

Forwards who have not scored when Murray is on the ice.

MURRAY When on ice Against/Opponent not against MURRAY
GF20

RIBEIRO, MIKE...0.00/.810
VERSTEEG, KRIS0.00/.842
SMITH, REILLY...0.00/ 1.00
NEAL, JAMES.....0.00/1.285
MALKIN, EVGENI0.00/1.133
JOKINEN, JUSSI.0.00/1.038
KREJCI, DAVID..0.00/.988
IGINLA, JAROME0.00/1.063
KADRI, NAZEM..0.00/.888
LUCIC, MILAN...0.00/.997
CHIMERA, JASON0.00/.910
SCHWARTZ, JADEN00/1.197
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR0/1.061
SHAW, ANDREW.0.00/1.138
CROSBY, SIDNEY0.00/1.079 (1 shot while Murray on.)
KUNITZ, CHRIS..0.00/1.153
BENN, JAMIE.....0.00/1.297
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK0/1.236


Not too bad for a stay at home DMan to not have allowed any goals against the above. Right?

Murray is a ****ing #6 DMan who will stand up for every single Canadiens player while he is on the ice. And he limited Sidney Crosby to no goals and one shot.

Plus, taken directly from the site that you quoted........

"HockeyAnalysis.com offers no guarantee of the accuracy of the stats presented on this website. Use at your own risk."

Hope your Fantasy team is doing well. The air outside is fresh and invigorating. It feels good when you get to enjoy the outdoors.

Cheers.

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03-17-2014, 06:04 PM
  #85
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Not too bad for a stay at home DMan to not have allowed any goals against the above. Right?

Murray is a ****ing #6 DMan who will stand up for every single Canadiens player while he is on the ice. And he limited Sidney Crosby to no goals and one shot.
Not to mention, this is a guy whose effectiveness physically and ability to intimidate aren't even in question, and he has gone about his business in a way that has resulted in 13 penalty minutes. Thirteen. That's Josh Gorges (and Diaz, hehe) territory, lol. Fewer people coming looking for that kind of action when he's around, plain and simple - despite the fact that Parros, our actual enforcer, has barely been able to play this year. Big, tough, smart, experienced, disciplined, effective. Perfect #6/7 material. More than a "spare part", imo.

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03-17-2014, 06:10 PM
  #86
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Parros? This is the Douglas Murray thread. I realize you want to draw a parallel but Murray has skills and is taking a regular shift etc. He's an NHLer and I'd think another team would sign him if we let him walk.
I brought up Parros because that show was salient to your point. However, Murray is to defensemen what Parros is to forwards, minus the fighting.

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03-17-2014, 06:16 PM
  #87
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I brought up Parros because that show was salient to your point. However, Murray is to defensemen what Parros is to forwards, minus the fighting.
Since you are one of the most vocal and adamant posters when it comes to Murray, I have a small task for you to engage in..........if you are really confident in your beliefs about Murray.

Post up all of the games that you feel the Habs would have won if Murray was not in the lineup for that game.

Thanks.

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03-17-2014, 06:30 PM
  #88
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Since you are one of the most vocal and adamant posters when it comes to Murray, I have a small task for you to engage in..........if you are really confident in your beliefs about Murray.

Post up all of the games that you feel the Habs would have won if Murray was not in the lineup for that game.

Thanks.
That's highly hypothetical. Even if he can't find more than a few doesn't mean Murray is good.

Outside of his toughness and decent penalty killing, Murray doesn't bring anything to the table. He's awful at 5 vs 5 and we're one of the worst scoring team at even strenght. I'd rather have a guy that can improve that particular area of our game than a guy who could be replaced on the PK without hurting it's efficiency much. Scoring is our biggest weakness and the fact that the third pairing can't get the puck out of the zone since Beaulieu is in Hamilton doesn't help us. Getting Murray out of the team might be addition by substraction unless we finally bring back NB to help him.

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03-17-2014, 06:31 PM
  #89
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Forwards who have not scored when Murray is on the ice.
There's nothing quite so amusing as someone who tries to use stats to discredit stats while not having the foggiest idea what he's doing. Not that you care about accuracy, that's not your point.

For anyone else who might find that list persuasive:

You only play against each team a limited number of times, so you only get a handful of minutes against any particular opponent. Goals, meanwhile, are relatively rare. So, you can look at any defenseman and cherry-pick an list of impressive names that haven't scored on said D-man. All the more so when the player's icetime is limited, like Murray's is. The Habs DO try not to have him play against Crosby and so on.

With opponents, the important thing is the aggregate because you just don't play against any individual opponent long enough for the individual samples to become meaningful, unlike with teammates. Murray has played more time with Francis Bouillon than he has against the list of forwards quoted above combined, even without factoring in that some of them (like Neal and Malkin, or Krejci and Lucic) would be on the ice at the same time.

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03-17-2014, 06:35 PM
  #90
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I brought up Parros because that show was salient to your point. However, Murray is to defensemen what Parros is to forwards, minus the fighting.
Strongly disagree. Was Parros an Olympian in 2010? You brought up Parros to attempt an association that would devalue Murray.

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03-17-2014, 06:35 PM
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Habs are 10-9 and i forget the ot number when Murray isn't in the lineup. Now at 11-9- and whatever the ot is.

Our record suggest we're better WITH Murray.

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03-17-2014, 06:38 PM
  #92
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That's highly hypothetical. Even if he can't find more than a few doesn't mean Murray is good.

Outside of his toughness and decent penalty killing, Murray doesn't bring anything to the table. He's awful at 5 vs 5 and we're one of the worst scoring team at even strenght. I'd rather have a guy that can improve that particular area of our game than a guy who could be replaced on the PK without hurting it's efficiency much. Scoring is our biggest weakness and the fact that the third pairing can't get the puck out of the zone since Beaulieu is in Hamilton doesn't help us. Getting Murray out of the team might be addition by substraction unless we finally bring back NB to help him.
It is just as hypothetical to say that Murray sucks and is useless, right?

Unless, some of these posters on this board are actually Canadiens players.

And ALL HABS DMen are struggling to effectively get the puck out and maintain possession. All of them.

It is convenient to pick one player and then blast him, especially when they have a "core group" of like minded individuals to back them up. Look up the DD threads if you need an example.

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03-17-2014, 06:41 PM
  #93
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03-17-2014, 06:44 PM
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That's highly hypothetical. Even if he can't find more than a few doesn't mean Murray is good.
Mind you, even "a few" games lost by using Murray over a replacement player would make him catastrophically bad.

It's a trap, anyway. SouthernHab doesn't quite catch the notion of how the aggregate direct individual results, which I imagine is why he doesn't get the quantitative argument. He thinks that you could point at individual games that Murray clearly and demonstrably cost the Habs a win (whereupon he would no doubt argue that some other players are equally culpable, or that Subban cost an equal number of games and whatnot). Whereas the point is that Murray's general suckiness has been detrimental throughout, making the Habs worse than they could've been overall. How do I get across that sheltering Murray makes the other pairings' job harder to a guy with SouthernHab's anecdotical worldview?

Besides, last time he asked me to do something like that, it was actually an interesting piece of data (rebound shots by either team in the Montreal-Ottawa series), so I did the work and showed neither team had an advantage and he never bothered to respond. So I'm not going to bother again.

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03-17-2014, 06:50 PM
  #95
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Strongly disagree. Was Parros an Olympian in 2010? You brought up Parros to attempt an association that would devalue Murray.
I brought up Parros because he was an example of how a substandard NHL player is still excellent relative to the general population, based on that TV show we've all seen the Youtube of.

That said, I stand by the assessment that Murray as a D-man is pretty comparable to Parros as a forward. He's among the worst in the league at the position and if you read this thread, his usefulness is often defended by mentioning his intimidation factor. As an example, note how Parros was first brought into this thread, and not by me.

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03-17-2014, 06:50 PM
  #96
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Habs are 10-9 and i forget the ot number when Murray isn't in the lineup. Now at 11-9- and whatever the ot is.

Our record suggest we're better WITH Murray.
Montreal is 8-1-1 with Dale Weise in the lineup! What does it mean? Not much.

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03-17-2014, 06:53 PM
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Montreal is 8-1-1 with Dale Weise in the lineup! What does it mean? Not much.
Small sample size compared to 26-16 and whatever the ot record is.

Murray isn't great, but neither are Bouillon or Weaver. Murray blocks more shots, hits much harder and can fight better than both Bouillon and Weaver.

Murray is slow as **** and he could probably block out the sun.

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03-17-2014, 06:59 PM
  #98
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Mind you, even "a few" games lost by using Murray over a replacement player would make him catastrophically bad.

It's a trap, anyway. SouthernHab doesn't quite catch the notion of how the aggregate direct individual results, which I imagine is why he doesn't get the quantitative argument. He thinks that you could point at individual games that Murray clearly and demonstrably cost the Habs a win (whereupon he would no doubt argue that some other players are equally culpable, or that Subban cost an equal number of games and whatnot). Whereas the point is that Murray's general suckiness has been detrimental throughout, making the Habs worse than they could've been overall. How do I get across that sheltering Murray makes the other pairings' job harder to a guy with SouthernHab's anecdotical worldview?

Besides, last time he asked me to do something like that, it was actually an interesting piece of data (rebound shots by either team in the Montreal-Ottawa series), so I did the work and showed neither team had an advantage and he never bothered to respond. So I'm not going to bother again.
Cant/wont do it. Not enough faith in your statistical worldview? Surely you can come up with a large enough "aggregate" in one or two or ten or twenty games for the aha moment. "Murray lost that game for us".

To do otherwise is a waste of pissing and moaning if the individual events that comprise the aggregate cannot be quantified in a concrete and categorically undeniable way.

Stats should do that, right?

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03-17-2014, 07:19 PM
  #99
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Huh uh. The team being bullied was such a problem last season that they were a much better hockey club then they are this year. They crash the net so much more now that they end up scoring over half a goal less per game.

Personally the notion that the Habs were bullied more last year than this year smacks of observer bias, but even if it's true, it doesn't seem to actually help the team on the scoreboard where it matters.
Disagree.

What sticks out the most to me is last year's playoff exit to an average, but imposing Ottawa Senators team. The Habs retreated into their defensive shell with their tail between their legs after Gryba took a run at and destroyed Eller. Gryba and the Sens sent a message to the Habs that game. "We'll run you, and we're not afraid."

I don't see that happening with Murray and Parros on board.

Hockey is a physical game. You need imposing players.

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03-17-2014, 07:50 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by LLoyd Christmas I View Post
Disagree.

What sticks out the most to me is last year's playoff exit to an average, but imposing Ottawa Senators team. The Habs retreated into their defensive shell with their tail between their legs after Gryba took a run at and destroyed Eller. Gryba and the Sens sent a message to the Habs that game. "We'll run you, and we're not afraid."

I don't see that happening with Murray and Parros on board.

Hockey is a physical game. You need imposing players.
Habs lost mostly because they couldn't score goals.

Secondarily, we were weak defensively, especially around our own net. Price was being crashed right and left, much in the way the Habs crashed the net against Ottawa on Saturday. Price isn't being victimized nearly as often this season and part of that is because Murray's sheer bulk has been effective in that surgical role. Yes, we do need someone to do what he does.

But in any other role other than "Designated Wall" he's a huge question mark. He has no place on the ice if we're behind, or if we're playing a fast team.

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