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Old
03-17-2014, 07:52 PM
  #101
Hope Of Glory
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
It is just as hypothetical to say that Murray sucks and is useless, right?

Unless, some of these posters on this board are actually Canadiens players.

And ALL HABS DMen are struggling to effectively get the puck out and maintain possession. All of them.

It is convenient to pick one player and then blast him, especially when they have a "core group" of like minded individuals to back them up. Look up the DD threads if you need an example.
No, not at all. On one hand, you have events that REALLY happened and that we can measure (with our eyes, with stats or, ideally, with both) and thus see the effects they had on the outcome of a game. On the other hand, you just have pure speculation that can never be proved right - or wrong. It's a pointless exercise.

And for the record, I'm not 100% against the idea of having Murray in the lineup. He's just horrible if he's not paired with a mobile defenseman with a very very good first pass, which Weaver, Bouillon and Tinordi (even if he does have the skating) are not.

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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Mind you, even "a few" games lost by using Murray over a replacement player would make him catastrophically bad.

It's a trap, anyway. SouthernHab doesn't quite catch the notion of how the aggregate direct individual results, which I imagine is why he doesn't get the quantitative argument. He thinks that you could point at individual games that Murray clearly and demonstrably cost the Habs a win (whereupon he would no doubt argue that some other players are equally culpable, or that Subban cost an equal number of games and whatnot). Whereas the point is that Murray's general suckiness has been detrimental throughout, making the Habs worse than they could've been overall. How do I get across that sheltering Murray makes the other pairings' job harder to a guy with SouthernHab's anecdotical worldview?

Besides, last time he asked me to do something like that, it was actually an interesting piece of data (rebound shots by either team in the Montreal-Ottawa series), so I did the work and showed neither team had an advantage and he never bothered to respond. So I'm not going to bother again.
Fair enough. Oh and by the way, I really like your mathematical (or statistical) approach to the game even if I don't always agree at 100% with it. Always interesting.

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03-17-2014, 08:23 PM
  #102
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Would be wise to pair Murray with a puck-moving D and keep it that way.

Agree MathMan input can be interesting but some have an almost cult-like attachment to fancystats. IMHO these detailed and nuanced analyses grew out of baseball and properly reflect that sports' almost clinical gameplay. But they have limited use in hockey. Still, cool

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03-17-2014, 08:55 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
Cant/wont do it. Not enough faith in your statistical worldview? Surely you can come up with a large enough "aggregate" in one or two or ten or twenty games for the aha moment. "Murray lost that game for us".
Nope. Because if you think that a hockey game can be won or lost by a single guy (who isn't a goalie, natch, and even then) then your view of the sport is skewed.

The thing with Murray or any substandard player is that -- relative to a replacement, it's always relative -- he hurts the team a bit here, a bit there, a bit over there, and so on over the entire season, so some close games subtly tilt against the Habs, a win becomes harder than it should be, and so on.

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03-17-2014, 08:59 PM
  #104
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I'm thinking people might be overestimating how much a #6-7 d-man really matters in terms of his pure on-ice performance. I don't really care if it's Bouillon, Murray, Tinordi, Weaver, whoever... none of them should really make much of an absolute difference over eachother in terms of their on-ice contribution. But I think intangibles are important to our team. Leadership, experience, stuff like that. It matters with a young, small, building team. I have a spot for Murray on those factors.

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03-17-2014, 09:44 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Nope. Because if you think that a hockey game can be won or lost by a single guy (who isn't a goalie, natch, and even then) then your view of the sport is skewed.

The thing with Murray or any substandard player is that -- relative to a replacement, it's always relative -- he hurts the team a bit here, a bit there, a bit over there, and so on over the entire season, so some close games subtly tilt against the Habs, a win becomes harder than it should be, and so on.

That is what is missing in these pile on Murray threads. Context.

Sure we can find an upgrade on Murray. Someone who is big and physical and can skate faster and still block shots or clear the crease area after the play is dead.

One problem with that. Cost. And we have contracts that need to be signed this offseason.

Murray fits the bill for what he gets paid to do....be a physical #6 DMan. While letting our young DMen get more experience. Tinordi.....like him a lot.......still is prone to rookie mistakes.

As someone mentioned earlier, Murray paired with a mobile DMan is not a liability. Murray paired with Weaver or Bouillon is.

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03-17-2014, 10:20 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
That is what is missing in these pile on Murray threads. Context.
At 1.5 million, Murray is a bad deal. He's below replacement value, meaning that the average AHL call-up is better than him. And the AHL call-up wouldn't be so expensive. Murray's just not worth a NHL salary at this point.

Blocking shots and hitting guys, by the way, have no intrinsic value. The goal is defense. Hits and blocked shots are tools for that purpose, but a player who does nothing else is probably not contributing because those are signs of the other team having the puck.

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03-17-2014, 10:26 PM
  #107
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Is he ufa at end of season? Because if yes, with Tinordi, he is as good as gone.

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03-17-2014, 10:48 PM
  #108
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That's highly hypothetical. Even if he can't find more than a few doesn't mean Murray is good.
It would strongly suggest, along with the team's record, that he isn't bad either, though.

But the major problem is we have a few slaves to fancy stats, and I think they've yet to realize that teams who have been out-shot have actually won 51% of all NHL games so far this year. Kind of puts a big nail in the coffin of Corsi (interesting as it is), or any quantitative analysis that tries to place emphasis on its importance above the qualitative analysis of those who are actually watching players and building teams. This is made even worse when the slaves to the stats admit lack of familiarity with anything outside of the bubble of their favourite team beyond what's available in spreadsheets.

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03-17-2014, 11:02 PM
  #109
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That is perhaps the laziest strawman I have ever seen.

Unbelievable. Literally nobody "doesn't watch the games".

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03-17-2014, 11:19 PM
  #110
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That is perhaps the laziest strawman I have ever seen.

Unbelievable. Literally nobody "doesn't watch the games".
Where do we start to enumerate the failure here, with the failure to actually quote a post so we deduce whether you actually understand what a strawman is, or the incredible success in implying that literally everybody watches all games? If this was supposed to be a reply to my immediately preceding post, then there is also the failure to understand that the games/teams I'm talking about that people are admitting to not watching are games that DON'T involve the Habs, i.e. we're talking about opinion that suffers the most from lack of perspective beyond what can be deduced from numbers in a spreadsheet or boxscore. But no worries, your username tempered my expectations from the start.

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03-18-2014, 12:18 AM
  #111
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Murray is gone at the end of the season, Tinordi will take his place.

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03-18-2014, 08:06 AM
  #112
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Murray is gone at the end of the season, Tinordi will take his place.
Thanks Marc!
/thread

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03-18-2014, 09:54 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
But the major problem is we have a few slaves to fancy stats, and I think they've yet to realize that teams who have been out-shot have actually won 51% of all NHL games so far this year. Kind of puts a big nail in the coffin of Corsi (interesting as it is), or any quantitative analysis that tries to place emphasis on its importance above the qualitative analysis of those who are actually watching players and building teams. This is made even worse when the slaves to the stats admit lack of familiarity with anything outside of the bubble of their favourite team beyond what's available in spreadsheets.
A scathing indictment of quantitative analysis if it weren't for score effects.

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03-18-2014, 09:58 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
I'm thinking people might be overestimating how much a #6-7 d-man really matters in terms of his pure on-ice performance. I don't really care if it's Bouillon, Murray, Tinordi, Weaver, whoever... none of them should really make much of an absolute difference over eachother in terms of their on-ice contribution. But I think intangibles are important to our team. Leadership, experience, stuff like that. It matters with a young, small, building team. I have a spot for Murray on those factors.
I actually think it plays a big part especially as the games get tougher. If your 3rd and 4th line are good enough to shutdown some of the opponent's good players, and they can do so while producing, it's a huge bonus. When your 4th line goes against their 4th and you spend the whole time in their zone with scoring chances (possibly a goal), that's a huge bonus. When your 3rd D pairing is still good enough to defend secondary scoring lines, and have an easy time vs low lines, then it's a major bonus.

Take the 4th line as an example. Look how much of a difference it makes when you have no issues throwing out your last line for a defensive zone faceoffs versus top opposition. It's the same for bottom D.

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03-18-2014, 10:03 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
It would strongly suggest, along with the team's record, that he isn't bad either, though.

But the major problem is we have a few slaves to fancy stats, and I think they've yet to realize that teams who have been out-shot have actually won 51% of all NHL games so far this year. Kind of puts a big nail in the coffin of Corsi (interesting as it is), or any quantitative analysis that tries to place emphasis on its importance above the qualitative analysis of those who are actually watching players and building teams. This is made even worse when the slaves to the stats admit lack of familiarity with anything outside of the bubble of their favourite team beyond what's available in spreadsheets.
If anybody needs ''fancy'' stats in order to see that Murray sucks, then they really haven't been paying attention while watching the games. Really, you don't need stats to see that he's bad..
He's just a bad Dman. Sure, he can hit, and yes he can block shots. He can tell an opponent that if he ever does that again, he'll rip his head off. No question, he can do those things. Is that enough to compensate his high level of ''suckiness'' though? I don't think so.
I rather see Tinordi and Beaulieu as a pair than seeing Murray kill any transition to the game and be lost in our zone.

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03-18-2014, 10:47 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Where do we start to enumerate the failure here, with the failure to actually quote a post so we deduce whether you actually understand what a strawman is, or the incredible success in implying that literally everybody watches all games? If this was supposed to be a reply to my immediately preceding post, then there is also the failure to understand that the games/teams I'm talking about that people are admitting to not watching are games that DON'T involve the Habs, i.e. we're talking about opinion that suffers the most from lack of perspective beyond what can be deduced from numbers in a spreadsheet or boxscore. But no worries, your username tempered my expectations from the start.
The premise of your post was that quantitative measures aren't good enough because of your 51% of winning teams are outshot. You are attempting to disprove statistical measures without an adequate understanding of how they work, and bringing out tired old rhetoric about "actually watching games" and spreadsheets. It's just trite.

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But no worries, your username tempered my expectations from the start.
How clever! I'll change my username to Scotty Bowman or something so you can take things I post at face value next time.

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03-18-2014, 11:02 AM
  #117
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I actually think it plays a big part especially as the games get tougher. If your 3rd and 4th line are good enough to shutdown some of the opponent's good players, and they can do so while producing, it's a huge bonus. When your 4th line goes against their 4th and you spend the whole time in their zone with scoring chances (possibly a goal), that's a huge bonus. When your 3rd D pairing is still good enough to defend secondary scoring lines, and have an easy time vs low lines, then it's a major bonus.

Take the 4th line as an example. Look how much of a difference it makes when you have no issues throwing out your last line for a defensive zone faceoffs versus top opposition. It's the same for bottom D.
Yes, it matters if they are good enough to contribute. But does it matter if White plays instead of Weise or Moen on that contributing 4th line? Murray is something of an anchor, but are Bouillon and Weaver better? High-variance stats aside. As long as you have options with some level of basic competence for the role (e.g. not Parros, who doesn't have the basic competence), I don't think it makes much difference. Intangibles can outweigh that negligible difference. And then since it is important to have at least some minimum level of default option in place, all the more reason to sign Murray now, and then replace him later if you can find a better player. Obviously it would be nice to have a better player. But show me that better player first.

Of course, some people would put Murray in the same category as Parros, though. I don't share that same negativity towards Murray.

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03-18-2014, 11:09 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
Yes, it matters if they are good enough to contribute. But does it matter if White plays instead of Weise or Moen on that contributing 4th line? Murray is something of an anchor, but are Bouillon and Weaver better? High-variance stats aside. As long as you have options with some level of basic competence for the role (e.g. not Parros, who doesn't have the basic competence), I don't think it makes much difference. Intangibles can outweigh that negligible difference. And then since it is important to have at least some minimum level of default option in place, all the more reason to sign Murray now, and then replace him later if you can find a better player. Obviously it would be nice to have a better player. But show me that better player first.

Of course, some people would put Murray in the same category as Parros, though. I don't share that same negativity towards Murray.
If White is on top of his game, then no, he can contribute just as much as these other guys. But as for Murray, he's terrible, I think Tinordi and Beaulieu paired together, even as rookies, would be a better option than having him there.

Bouillon has done a good job since returning, but playing him 23min is just ********.

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03-18-2014, 11:22 AM
  #119
Blind Gardien
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If White is on top of his game, then no, he can contribute just as much as these other guys. But as for Murray, he's terrible, I think Tinordi and Beaulieu paired together, even as rookies, would be a better option than having him there.

Bouillon has done a good job since returning, but playing him 23min is just ********.
I'd be very happy with a Tinordi-Beaulieu pair too. And still inclined towards signing Murray, even though he sucks, for the record.

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03-18-2014, 12:00 PM
  #120
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The premise of your post was that quantitative measures aren't good enough because of your 51% of winning teams are outshot. You are attempting to disprove statistical measures without an adequate understanding of how they work, and bringing out tired old rhetoric about "actually watching games" and spreadsheets. It's just trite.
The premise of my post is certainly that qualitative measures aren't good enough - that much is clear due to the fact that teams still spend a LOT of money to make sure qualified live eyes see the players before investing in them. Not like it takes much effort to show that shots aren't necessarily the proxy to possession and wins that Corsi is supposed to "predict" if teams getting out-shot can win over 50% of games over the largest/widest possible sample size (i.e. all results league-wide to date).

And what you call "trite", I call truth. Anyone who watches (or follows the boxscores for) this team almost exclusively and has no idea of how other teams around the league are built/performing beyond what's available in the spreadsheets and boxscores are missing a lot of perspective when it comes to what they think they're trying to "fix" on our club, and how/why they think it needs fixing. Comparison or aspiration to "ideals" simply isn't realistic or even useful in most cases, either. "Compete level" is just one among the more important elements in a player today, and that must be one of the more impossible things to frame in a statistical snapshot which isn't able to borrow anything from observation, for one example. It also happens to be one area in which Doug Murray, specifically, is above reproach.

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How clever! I'll change my username to Scotty Bowman or something so you can take things I post at face value next time.
That would be splendid, although as a Canadian I can appreciate the self-deprecation on at least some level.

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03-18-2014, 12:14 PM
  #121
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There's nothing wrong with Murray...as a #5-7 Dman getting 8-12 mins a game, killing penalties and keeping it simple.

It's only when he starts playing too many mins and is overused that he gets exposed.
He's a good depth Dman that brings a much needed physical side to our D but is only effective in short shifts and spot duty.

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03-18-2014, 08:53 PM
  #122
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What I highlighted in bold. I agree with you. You really dont have nothing else to say.

You are cherry picking stats for a #6 stay-at-home DMan who provides needed toughness to this team.

I can cherry pick stats as well. And even from your own site who believes that a GA20 is somehow better than a GA/60.

Here you go.

Forwards who have not scored when Murray is on the ice.

MURRAY When on ice Against/Opponent not against MURRAY
GF20

RIBEIRO, MIKE...0.00/.810
VERSTEEG, KRIS0.00/.842
SMITH, REILLY...0.00/ 1.00
NEAL, JAMES.....0.00/1.285
MALKIN, EVGENI0.00/1.133
JOKINEN, JUSSI.0.00/1.038
KREJCI, DAVID..0.00/.988
IGINLA, JAROME0.00/1.063
KADRI, NAZEM..0.00/.888
LUCIC, MILAN...0.00/.997
CHIMERA, JASON0.00/.910
SCHWARTZ, JADEN00/1.197
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR0/1.061
SHAW, ANDREW.0.00/1.138
CROSBY, SIDNEY0.00/1.079 (1 shot while Murray on.)
KUNITZ, CHRIS..0.00/1.153
BENN, JAMIE.....0.00/1.297
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK0/1.236


Not too bad for a stay at home DMan to not have allowed any goals against the above. Right?

Murray is a ****ing #6 DMan who will stand up for every single Canadiens player while he is on the ice. And he limited Sidney Crosby to no goals and one shot.

Plus, taken directly from the site that you quoted........

"HockeyAnalysis.com offers no guarantee of the accuracy of the stats presented on this website. Use at your own risk."

Hope your Fantasy team is doing well. The air outside is fresh and invigorating. It feels good when you get to enjoy the outdoors.

Cheers.
You come in, state that the only thing that matters is goals allowed vs goals scored... and then when you get completely destroyed on this point you ignore it and move on to nonsense like this?

Dude... seriously, give it up.

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03-18-2014, 08:56 PM
  #123
Lafleurs Guy
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If anybody needs ''fancy'' stats in order to see that Murray sucks, then they really haven't been paying attention while watching the games. Really, you don't need stats to see that he's bad..
He's just a bad Dman. Sure, he can hit, and yes he can block shots. He can tell an opponent that if he ever does that again, he'll rip his head off. No question, he can do those things. Is that enough to compensate his high level of ''suckiness'' though? I don't think so.
I rather see Tinordi and Beaulieu as a pair than seeing Murray kill any transition to the game and be lost in our zone.
This.

Seriously, Murray sucks. I didn't look at statsheets to come to this conclusion. I could see it with my own eyes. He's a terrible hockey player. The stats only reinforce what I already knew.

Again, folks love the physicality and it blinds them to his shortcomings. No other explanation for it because this guy is awful out there.

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03-18-2014, 10:06 PM
  #124
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You come in, state that the only thing that matters is goals allowed vs goals scored... and then when you get completely destroyed on this point you ignore it and move on to nonsense like this?

Dude... seriously, give it up.
Six weeks from now, no one will remember who was out of position in tonight's game against Colorado. All that they will see is the final score and the Habs won.

All except for the fancy stats guys who will spin their tales as if it means something.

Stats can be spun to get close to your desired result that you seek. You can even tweak it by adding "Close" instead of "5 on 5" to get what you are searching for.

Again, if we simply rely on numbers on a screen, Subban sucks on defense this season relative to his peers in the NHL. But we know the real story since we watch the game, right?

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03-18-2014, 11:29 PM
  #125
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Murray is physical but we're stuck in our zone everytime he has the puck. The mere simple play becomes a shore.

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