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Old
03-22-2014, 08:30 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
Let me ask you a question about what you see.

How many coaches would put two stay at home DMen on the same line?

Murray needs to be on a line with a DMan who can handle the puck. He is not a puck handling D.
Truer words have never been spoken. He is a puck fumbling bum.

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03-22-2014, 08:50 PM
  #177
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SouthernHab, not talking about 6 superstars. We don't need 6 superstars in the NHL. We had a talented bottom pairing guy. We traded him away for a 4th line plug. We have two cost controllable talented defensemen on ELC's, one's benched and one's in the AHL.

Talking about the line of thinking that leads to Murray sticking around because you need "stay at home" guys. Better to not be at home in the first place than have a guy who never leaves. It's not good enough to say a guy doesn't need to move the puck because he's not a puck mover, I don't want those guys on my team in the first place.

The logic of a stay at home guy is sound but in most cases it's a euphemism for "big, hits, can't pass".
For Murray tonight.

4 hits, 5 blocked shots, +2 and only played 10:13 TOI.

What the **** are people complaining about?

Who does Diaz play for now? And how about that 4th line plug chipping in some goals?

This isnt NHL Fantasy hockey that they play on the ice.

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Old
03-22-2014, 08:51 PM
  #178
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Truer words have never been spoken. He is a puck fumbling bum.
No one ever said he was a PMD. No one.

I guess you miss Diaz as well.

Therrien is the idiot. Beaulieu and Murray worked very well together before the Olympics. One is a PMD, one is a stay at home D.

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Old
03-22-2014, 08:52 PM
  #179
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Do NOT re-sign Murray. He's a fringe NHLer. Ditto Bouillon.

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03-22-2014, 08:53 PM
  #180
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Problem is eyes aren't necessarily trained to evaluate talent properly. If your criteria for a 3rd pairing D is "blocks shots and takes the body", then Murray is great. If your criteria is "makes plays and advances the puck", he's awful.

That's the fundamental disconnect here. The best teams have the second criteria while it appears the Habs are employing the first. Amazes me that in the wake of Team Canada utterly dominating everyone at the Olympics that people still aren't convinced by possession and its value.
I think you better do a little more research on that one, because you're sounding like one of the "Who's Cody Franson?" and "I have no idea how the Rangers' defense is built" and "Who are Bryan Allen and Mark Fistric?" crew (again, the username not doing you any favours). Just about every team (even the good ones) employs a responsible, typically physical, veteran defenseman on the third pairing who looks like an offensive black hole under a fancy stats microscope, and even on the good teams they're allowing roughly half the goals against of the top pairing above them while playing half the role/minutes.

Sticking just to "top teams":

Anaheim: Allen/Fistric
Boston: McQuaid/Miller
Pittsburgh: Scuderi/Bortuzzo
San Jose: Stuart/Hannan
St. Louis: Polak/Leopold
Chicago: Roszival/Brookbank
Colorado: Guenin/Sarich
Philly: Grossman/Schenn

etc, etc.

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03-22-2014, 09:34 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
For Murray tonight.

4 hits, 5 blocked shots, +2 and only played 10:13 TOI.
He was also hemmed in his own end by Colton Orr and handled the puck like a live grenade.

Want to talk about the game on the ice? OK, how about the rush in the first period, Kessel moving with speed on Weaver's side of the ice. Guess where he goes as soon as he crosses the blueline? Guess which defenseman he decided to move in on?

You bring up hits, blocked shots, and +/- then accuse me of playing fantasy hockey?

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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Just about every team (even the good ones) employs a responsible, typically physical, veteran defenseman on the third pairing who looks like an offensive black hole under a fancy stats microscope, and even on the good teams they're allowing roughly half the goals against of the top pairing above them while playing half the role/minutes.
Once again people take a run at stats without understanding how they work (while claiming I need to do more research). The entire point of possession metrics is to see who is contributing beyond looking at point totals. Did you miss all the posts about Weaver when he was acquired demonstrating that despite his low point totals he's a solid possession player who handles tough minutes? We're not talking about a responsible veteran here, we're talking about a plug. There's a clear difference between Murray and most of the guys you mentioned, McQuaid, Scuderi, Polak, Roszival (who is a fancy stats darling by the way), etc etc, they're not Douglas Murray, they can take a regular shift and it's not a fire drill if they get caught out against better players. They're almost all either positive or break even possession players against better opposition with better matchups. Murray is among the worst playing against other team's 4th lines.

I'm not on here bashing Weaver because he's what Murray was sold as. He's a solid defense first player who can play close to 20 minutes a night reliably. I know you can't have a team with 6 Subbans, but it is entirely feasible to ice 6 solid defenders without a Douglas Murray. People aren't on Murray because he's an offensive black hole, they're on him because he's a possession black hole. Mike Weaver is an offensive black hole, but he isn't possession wise and that's what matters in the long run. I don't have it out for defensive specialists, but they have to actually be good at defense to be called that.

The problem is that Murray's mistakes are of the death by 1000 cuts variety. He generally doesn't make the big noticable gaffe la Subban or Tinordi's recent giveaway, but makes constant misplays and is always throwing the puck away. Over the course of a season those chips off the glass every shift add up to chances, shots, and goals against.


Last edited by Noob616: 03-22-2014 at 09:39 PM.
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03-22-2014, 09:48 PM
  #182
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Once again people take a run at stats without understanding how they work (while claiming I need to do more research). The entire point of possession metrics is to see who is contributing beyond looking at point totals.
And speaking of understanding the stats, if your proxy to "possession" is anything involving shots you should know that teams getting outshot this season have actually won a narrow majority of games as of some time just last week. Not a big problem if your possession metric involves something perhaps less attached to the results of games, of course, however useful that would be.

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There's a clear difference between Murray and most of the guys you mentioned, McQuaid, Scuderi, Polak, Roszival (who is a fancy stats darling by the way), etc etc, they're not Douglas Murray, they can take a regular shift and it's not a fire drill if they get caught out against better players. They're almost all either positive or break even possession players against better opposition with better matchups. Murray is among the worst playing against other team's 4th lines.
And they all play behind forward groups that, before the acquisition of Vanek, we would have gladly wholesale exchanged if given the choice or been ridiculed for thinking otherwise. In a series against any of those teams it would be expected that the forwards, not the goalie or defense, would be the biggest keys to their success/failure. Over the first half of the season, through success and struggle, it was pretty obvious that the forwards were killing the transition game just as much as the "puck moving ability" of our defense group, btw.


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Old
03-22-2014, 09:53 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
And speaking of understanding the stats, if your proxy to "possession" is anything involving shots you should know that teams getting outshot this season have actually won a narrow majority of games as of some time just last week. Not a big problem if your possession metric involves something perhaps less attached to the results of games, of course, however useful that would be.
look up score effects.

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03-22-2014, 09:55 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Noob616 View Post
He was also hemmed in his own end by Colton Orr and handled the puck like a live grenade.

Want to talk about the game on the ice? OK, how about the rush in the first period, Kessel moving with speed on Weaver's side of the ice. Guess where he goes as soon as he crosses the blueline? Guess which defenseman he decided to move in on?

You bring up hits, blocked shots, and +/- then accuse me of playing fantasy hockey?
.
And did Kessel score?

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03-22-2014, 09:56 PM
  #185
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I hate Murray but I thought he was used well tonight for a change. ~10min with most PK time is what he should be getting.

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03-22-2014, 10:04 PM
  #186
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
look up score effects.
Yeah, that's how hockey works. If you don't think you're going to win by the time the game ends, you play a slightly more desperate style. If you think you're going to win by the time the game ends, you're probably likely to face/handle teams playing a more desperate style of hockey (unless they don't care, are tired, short-handed, or whatever). It's almost a universal constant in that sense. What isn't constant is the ability to be comfortable in those situations, and come out of enough of them with the points required to earn a playoff berth by the end of the year. Means no more to me than, say, "intangibles".

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03-22-2014, 10:09 PM
  #187
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Murray and Beaulieu had excellent chemistry. One was a stay at home, the other a smooth skating puck mover. Bring Nathan back idiots!

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03-22-2014, 10:37 PM
  #188
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
And speaking of understanding the stats, if your proxy to "possession" is anything involving shots you should know that teams getting outshot this season have actually won a narrow majority of games as of some time just last week. Not a big problem if your possession metric involves something perhaps less attached to the results of games, of course, however useful that would be.
Once again...bashing the stats without understanding how they are calculated. Nobody uses raw Corsi unless they're taking the piss. Corsi/Fenwick close are what matters, because late in a game teams throw caution to the wind and go balls to the wall if they're losing. This is the score effects Overlords referenced.

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And they all play behind forward groups that, before the acquisition of Vanek, we would have gladly wholesale exchanged if given the choice or been ridiculed for thinking otherwise. In a series against any of those teams it would be expected that the forwards, not the goalie or defense, would be the biggest keys to their success/failure. Over the first half of the season, through success and struggle, it was pretty obvious that the forwards were killing the transition game just as much as the "puck moving ability" of our defense group, btw.
I dunno, it's pretty hard to look at a forward group deep enough that Galchenyuk is on the 3rd line and be upset with it. There's room for improvement and obviously Vanek is a big improvement but I don't see Boston's group as wholesale better than ours pre-Vanek, or St. Louis'. Chicago I'll agree with but even then you're talking about Handzus as a 2nd line C who is worse than all 3 of our top 9 guys. I'd agree that most of those forward groups are better but I'd disagree they're so much better that we have to discount Montreal's forwards as an asset.

I'll also have to disagree about the issues coming from the forwards, I guess now we're venturing into territory where it's just going to be one person's judgement against another and clearly my username precludes me from good judgement, but to my eyes the issue was the puck off the glass and lack of defensive structure. Remember, the dramatic fall in possession came when Murray started playing and worsened when Emelin became a top 4 D over Diaz ending the Subban-Markov pairing.

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Yeah, that's how hockey works. If you don't think you're going to win by the time the game ends, you play a slightly more desperate style. If you think you're going to win by the time the game ends, you're probably likely to face/handle teams playing a more desperate style of hockey (unless they don't care, are tired, short-handed, or whatever). It's almost a universal constant in that sense. What isn't constant is the ability to be comfortable in those situations, and come out of enough of them with the points required to earn a playoff berth by the end of the year. Means no more to me than, say, "intangibles".
...And where does this disprove that better teams outshoot and outchance their opponents? Are you claiming that Murray is such a bad possession player because he's uncomfortable in these situations? This is what score effects is, this is why we use Fenwick close.

I don't really get what you're saying here, you're trying to disprove shot based analysis by poking holes in all situations shot analysis which nobody uses. Nobody is saying Murray (or anyone) is bad because of their all situations Corsi. Players and teams are judged to be good or bad possession wise because of what they do when the score is close. It doesn't matter if you're the best possession team in the league when you're down by 4 goals.

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And did Kessel score?
You know this is bad argument. Is Tim Gleason a bad DFD because a flukey bounce went off his stick tonight?


Last edited by Noob616: 03-22-2014 at 11:27 PM.
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03-22-2014, 11:03 PM
  #189
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For Murray tonight.

4 hits, 5 blocked shots, +2 and only played 10:13 TOI.

What the **** are people complaining about?

Who does Diaz play for now? And how about that 4th line plug chipping in some goals?

This isnt NHL Fantasy hockey that they play on the ice.
Perfect #6.

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03-22-2014, 11:33 PM
  #190
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Once again...bashing the stats without understanding how they are calculated. Nobody uses raw Corsi unless they're taking the piss. Corsi/Fenwick close are what matters, because late in a game teams throw caution to the wind and go balls to the wall if they're losing. This is the score effects Overlords referenced.
Teams can go down two goals in the first period and start playing the same way. Who cares. You still have to figure out which players are going to hold or fold under those conditions, and sometimes the feedback from the team (performance/results, confidence, etc) means just as much as whatever you think you can take to the bank from Fenwick close.

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I dunno, it's pretty hard to look at a forward group deep enough that Galchenyuk is on the 3rd line and be upset with it. There's room for improvement and obviously Vanek is a big improvement but I don't see Boston's group as wholesale better than ours pre-Vanek, or St. Louis'. Chicago I'll agree with but even then you're talking about Handzus as a 2nd line C who is worse than all 3 of our top 9 guys. I'd agree that most of those forward groups are better but I'd disagree they're so much better that we have to discount Montreal's forwards as an asset.
It's not about "being upset with it", it's about which teams (on ice AND on paper) represent a wholesale improvement over our group, and how they do things differently to both start AND support a rush.

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I'll also have to disagree about the issues coming from the forwards, I guess now we're venturing into territory where it's just going to be one person's judgement against another and clearly my username precludes me from good judgement, but to my eyes the issue was the puck off the glass and lack of defensive structure. Remember, the dramatic fall in possession came when Murray started playing and worsened when Emelin became a top 4 D over Diaz ending the Subban-Markov pairing.
The most glaring lack of defensive structure has been exposed against opponents' neutral zone transition offense, and the fact that our forwards were way to good at a) standing still next to defenders when an "appropriate" distance to support a defenseman with the puck, b) starting too high and leaving too soon to support the puck (resulting in all the dumps off the glass that were, for the most part unfortunately, the easiest AND safest play available), c) not pressuring/pursuing "punts" hard enough to disrupt transition, and/or d) do something with the rare neutral zone pucks they DID maintain/retrieve that failed to get the puck deep, and resulted in a transition opportunity with forwards back-checking instead of being in position and facing the rush.

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...And where does this disprove that better teams outshoot and outchance their opponents? Are you claiming that Murray is such a bad possession player because he's uncomfortable in these situations? This is what score effects is, this is why we use Fenwick close.
Wait, are you going to attempt to prove that better teams don't get outshot by, or lose to, worse opponents? I don't care too much about what kind of "possession player" advanced stats paint Murray to be as long as the experience, discipline, intimidation, physicality, and defensive side are there in some acceptable combination. Link to your source for "chances" too, please.

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I don't really get what you're saying here, you're trying to disprove shot based analysis by poking holes in all situations shot analysis which nobody uses. Nobody is saying Murray (or anyone) is bad because of their all situations Corsi. Players and teams are judged to be good or bad possession wise because of what they do when the score is close.

Do you understand what Corsi/Fenwick close means? It means that only shot attempts recorded while the game is within two goals or tie games in the 3rd period are counted.
And do you understand that this team is undefeated in regulation this year when leading after the 2nd period (33 games, 6th most wins), with Murray averaging over 15 mins/game this year? This team has the defensive resiliency to hold onto wins, doesn't have the potency to claw back from deficits, but has the goalie for all occasions, and Murray contributes his relatively small amount to the ends that already currently look to be a playoff spot.

Micro-stats that result in Murray as a target for criticism for failing to contribute more to these wins (or less in those losses, as the case may be) shouldn't be taken too seriously when discussing his "kind" of player, imo. He's not in the pay scale (nor role) where you hope he somehow earns regular top 4 duties or above to be "worth it".

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03-23-2014, 09:27 AM
  #191
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Perfect #6.
if by perfect you mean 'one of the worst in the league', well, yeah.

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03-23-2014, 10:02 AM
  #192
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Good game for Murray, finished +2 and led the team in blocks and hits against a big opponent. Say what you want but the guy gets the job done.

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03-23-2014, 03:04 PM
  #193
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I usually drive the "re-sign Murray" bandwagon, but wow, he was attrocious last night, stat line notwithstanding. It was a 10 minute PP for the Leafs when he was on. Fortunately, the Leafs aren't too good either and we killed it.

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03-23-2014, 03:18 PM
  #194
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if by perfect you mean 'one of the worst in the league', well, yeah.
He could be a #4 in Edmonton....

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03-23-2014, 03:28 PM
  #195
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I usually drive the "re-sign Murray" bandwagon, but wow, he was attrocious last night, stat line notwithstanding. It was a 10 minute PP for the Leafs when he was on. Fortunately, the Leafs aren't too good either and we killed it.
...and he was still better than Bouillon, who played 25 minutes...

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03-23-2014, 03:31 PM
  #196
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He could be a #4 in Edmonton....
So could I

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03-23-2014, 03:36 PM
  #197
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So could I
I would definitely start watching Oilers games if you were a DMan for them.

You would be an instant hit. How many NHL players have had "overlords" on the back of their sweater?


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03-23-2014, 03:40 PM
  #198
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At least Murray helps after the whistle blows... I think there is an argument for dressing 7 D and playing Murray against rough players and on the PK where speed doesn't matter and clearing the net does.

Therrien proved that he can keep Murray from being a huge defensive liability if he gives up on the offense altogether. You can have him out there as long as you are willing to give up offensive zone faceoffs and let him play defense against players the team should be scoring on.

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03-23-2014, 03:40 PM
  #199
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I would definitely start watching Oilers games if you were a DMan for them.

You would be an instant hit. How many NHL players have had "overlords" on the back of their sweater?

Millions would ask me, so you got your name from that xbox game, right?


I wouldn't last a week.

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03-24-2014, 09:39 PM
  #200
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This guy brings needed size to the table. He's proved his worth. He's been unfairly criticized by some posters on these boards.

Every time we're trapped in our zone and Murray's on the ice everyone's like "omg murray u suck!"
Every time we're trapped in the zone and Murray's off the ice "omg we suck!"

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