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What Teams Can/Will Make The Strongest Offers To Vanek?

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Old
04-01-2014, 06:30 AM
  #51
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Nope,.can you explain what is.wrong.with my proposal please.
New contract variability rules in the CBA prevent any years salary from being 35 percent less than the first year of the contract, and no single year salary can be less than 50 percent of the highest paid year. Your proposal breaks both those rules.

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04-01-2014, 07:19 AM
  #52
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I'm still amazed that people would risk losing a player like him that we needed for so long for fear of what he'll be like in 8 freaking years.

In 8 years he could be traded 3 times (likely providing great assets in return). Cap could be 50M higher and 8M could be the type of contract you give to a guy like Plekanec (good but not star player). You should not worry about anything 8 years down the road. You should worry about getting a contender in the next few years, because it's the ONLY thing you can try to predict. Prospects pan out or not, players end up asking to leave or declining, others somehow get a steady progression and become a dominant player (Steen), etc.

Name me one team that got seriously in trouble because of a long term contract in its final years that could not end up just trading the player? Luongo got traded. Lecavalier got a gift buy out (and he really had a contract much worse than what Vanek could get). Teams always find a way to unload a star player that doesn't fit.

I mean, you can take precautions and front-load the contract as much as possible under the new rules so that he's an easier to trade players in the last years of his contract, and I'm sure the guy would agree too.

But you don't risk losing a star player because you worry about how he might be performing in 8 years. It might be impossible to prevent him from going to UFA and he might be dead-set on it, then ok you did what you could. But I certainly hope Bergevin won't let him get there offering anything less than 8 years, possibly at 7.5-8.

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04-01-2014, 07:39 AM
  #53
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Vanek wants to go to a contender and wants to get paid

That'll eliminate 2/3rds of the teams right off the start

Wild, Habs, Ducks would be my picks

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04-01-2014, 08:06 AM
  #54
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Vanek averaged $7.14 million on his current 7 year deal. For anyone suggesting he sign for $6.5-7 million, not gonna happen. There's no way a prime UFA at age 30 takes a pay cut in a world where the cap is supposed to go up substantially over the next few years.

It will take $8 million a year. Give him the Kessel deal at $8 million for 8 years. Front load it somewhat so he starts at $10 million and ends at $6 million. Once you sign Vanek then worry about what you have to do to re-sign Markov while still staying under the cap. If you need to ditch salary or buy someone out then you do it. But sign Vanek first, then worry about all the rest.

That 8th year he can get with Montreal is worth a lot. I'm sure most free agents would rather take the 8th year than risk being a UFA again at age 37.

The best thing that could happen to us is for Moulson to re-sign early with Minnesota. They can't take both. I think the Wild acquiring Moulson shows they're trying to go the cheaper route with Moulson. I'm sure they could have put together a 2nd round pick and a Collberg to get Vanek this year but they didn't. I don't know if they'll throw big money at Vanek 2 years after emptying the vault for Parise and Suter. That was probably sold to the team owner as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity / expense. Not sure he'd want to do it again now with Vanek.

If it is Montreal or Minny, Vanek will have to throw his Stanley Cup hopes behind either Carey Price and Nik Backstrom. I think it's an easy choice, but that's just me.

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04-01-2014, 08:33 AM
  #55
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I'm not a fan of 7 or 8 year deals unless its for younger players coming into their prime. In this case though, I think its worth the risk. Our core is coming into its prime, Vanek can help younger players like Galchenyuk reach their potential and we need help on the wings. So 7 x 7? I'm down with that. Subban's worth the 8 x 8 though and he'll probably get it (unless he's willing to take less) as he's earned it, so we'll have to factor that in as well. Markov's also due for some cash...

At least we've got younger guys who will be cheap like Beaulieu and Tinordi coming in. That will help.
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Originally Posted by CGG View Post
Vanek averaged $7.14 million on his current 7 year deal. For anyone suggesting he sign for $6.5-7 million, not gonna happen. There's no way a prime UFA at age 30 takes a pay cut in a world where the cap is supposed to go up substantially over the next few years.

It will take $8 million a year. Give him the Kessel deal at $8 million for 8 years. Front load it somewhat so he starts at $10 million and ends at $6 million. Once you sign Vanek then worry about what you have to do to re-sign Markov while still staying under the cap. If you need to ditch salary or buy someone out then you do it. But sign Vanek first, then worry about all the rest.

That 8th year he can get with Montreal is worth a lot. I'm sure most free agents would rather take the 8th year than risk being a UFA again at age 37.

The best thing that could happen to us is for Moulson to re-sign early with Minnesota. They can't take both. I think the Wild acquiring Moulson shows they're trying to go the cheaper route with Moulson. I'm sure they could have put together a 2nd round pick and a Collberg to get Vanek this year but they didn't. I don't know if they'll throw big money at Vanek 2 years after emptying the vault for Parise and Suter. That was probably sold to the team owner as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity / expense. Not sure he'd want to do it again now with Vanek.

If it is Montreal or Minny, Vanek will have to throw his Stanley Cup hopes behind either Carey Price and Nik Backstrom. I think it's an easy choice, but that's just me.
Players aren't stupid though, they'll take term if it means a cut in pay. Vanek's not going to be a 7 million dollar player when he's 37 or 38 and he knows it. But he can command that money by signing a longer term deal for big cash. 7 x 7 should be in the ballpark. and we've got the flexibility to add another year if that's what it takes to keep him. That extra year might bring down the avg annual pay but again he'd be adding term.

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04-01-2014, 08:34 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by CGG View Post
It will take $8 million a year. Give him the Kessel deal at $8 million for 8 years. Front load it somewhat so he starts at $10 million and ends at $6 million.
This. He's not taking a pay cut to stay in Montreal, that's for sure. I can almost imagine if he has real family pressure and a burning personal desire to go to Minnestoa that he might take a paycut to go there (*if* he's that set on it as his destination). But for the Habs, you have to roll out the full red carpet. That includes any kind of NTC/NMC control he wants. That includes 8 years. That includes the best cash value on the market, so $8M aav is a reasonable minimum. It will also include the biggest frontload you can work in, so that he gets his money up front and can earn more sitting on investments in the meantime.

And then indeed, you just don't worry about things after that. The cap seems to be climbing by 5% or more most years, so 5 years through that contract if/when Vanek hits his decline we could be looking at a $90M+ cap. An $8M cap hit on the back end of that is really not much different than Gionta's $5M cap hit on a $60M cap. It will be manageable.

Plus the NHL has an option to terminate the new CBA in September 2019, so if salaries really are racing high again, you could be looking at another lockout with potential amnesty buyouts or rollbacks or who knows what after that.

IF IF IF you can actually get Vanek to sign with us, you take it, you show him the money, you don't worry about what it will mean when he's 36, 37, 38.

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04-01-2014, 09:17 AM
  #57
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I know everything is going great and Vanek is the second coming but be careful what you wish for. This team even with Vanek has a lot of holes and isn't really built properly. Paying Vanek $8M/per is going to keep us from upgrading the team. In addition, Vanek as good as he is is not an elite player. He's very streaky and can be a non-factor in a lot of games. Just ask Sabres fans about that.

I personally would not want to give up that kind of money to 30+ year old player. Would rather give it to a younger player with through the roof upside. If Vanek was the last piece. I'd have no problem. But the team needs to do a lot of work before thy can think of contending year in and year out.

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04-01-2014, 09:22 AM
  #58
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I would also add that Minnesota may not be in a position to pay Vanek what he wants. It's great that they have the cap space, but one has to wonder what the Suter and Parise contracts are doing to their cash flow. Keep in mind that the first three years of their contracts were paid mostly as bonuses which means they got paid massive amounts up front in July. By the time free agency rolls around they will have paid each one $25 million dollars up front, and have collected only 1.5 seasons worth of revenue. I think that both got paid almost all of their contract in the lockout year despite missing half a year of hockey. If they don't make the playoffs this season (go Phoenix and Dallas), that is even less revenue they have to make an offer.

I think if you make a contract offer that is heavy on signing bonuses (if such are still permissible under the new CBA), you might be able to snatch him up.

Just a thought

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04-01-2014, 09:23 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by hockeyfan2k11 View Post
I know everything is going great and Vanek is the second coming but be careful what you wish for. This team even with Vanek has a lot of holes and isn't really built properly. Paying Vanek $8M/per is going to keep us from upgrading the team. In addition, Vanek as good as he is is not an elite player. He's very streaky and can be a non-factor in a lot of games. Just ask Sabres fans about that.

I personally would not want to give up that kind of money to 30+ year old player. Would rather give it to a younger player with through the roof upside. If Vanek was the last piece. I'd have no problem. But the team needs to do a lot of work before thy can think of contending year in and year out.
Sure, but where do you get this player from though? You'd probably have to trade for him and what do we have to deal with?

At the end of the day, guys like Vanek aren't easy to find.

As for this team not being built properly... there's some truth to that for sure. But the core of a winning team IS there. Subban, Price, Max, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Markov, Plecs... that's not bad at all. Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi and even Eller have upside.

We need to get rid of the deadwood and some smurfs but at this point its the filling out of the lineup that we need. If we keep Vanek and Galchenyuk emerges as the real deal, a legit big strong 3rd blueliner could be enough to put us over the top if we can fill in the forwards with decent players with some size.

We really aren't that far off dude.

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04-01-2014, 09:30 AM
  #60
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This. He's not taking a pay cut to stay in Montreal, that's for sure. I can almost imagine if he has real family pressure and a burning personal desire to go to Minnestoa that he might take a paycut to go there (*if* he's that set on it as his destination). But for the Habs, you have to roll out the full red carpet. That includes any kind of NTC/NMC control he wants. That includes 8 years. That includes the best cash value on the market, so $8M aav is a reasonable minimum. It will also include the biggest frontload you can work in, so that he gets his money up front and can earn more sitting on investments in the meantime.

And then indeed, you just don't worry about things after that. The cap seems to be climbing by 5% or more most years, so 5 years through that contract if/when Vanek hits his decline we could be looking at a $90M+ cap. An $8M cap hit on the back end of that is really not much different than Gionta's $5M cap hit on a $60M cap. It will be manageable.

Plus the NHL has an option to terminate the new CBA in September 2019, so if salaries really are racing high again, you could be looking at another lockout with potential amnesty buyouts or rollbacks or who knows what after that.

IF IF IF you can actually get Vanek to sign with us, you take it, you show him the money, you don't worry about what it will mean when he's 36, 37, 38.
I think Bergy will do all that you mentioned above. He's been trying to get a bog skilled forward for as long as he's been the GM and knows their value is extremely high and extremely hard to aquire. Now that we have Patches firing at all cylinders and has had almost instant chemistry with Vanek, no doubt Bergy will give all 8 at $7to Vanek to entice him to stay.

The only factor that holds up this deal is Vanek and his wife. If they want to take less term/money to go back to Minnesota there's nothing Bergy can do about it. From what I'm hearing, Vanek is liking his time in Montreal very much and you never know, maybe the European feel, hockey mad city and god like perception of him by the fans will be enough. One thing I'm almost certain of is that it will most likely come down to him signing with Montreal and Minnesota.

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04-01-2014, 09:35 AM
  #61
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04-01-2014, 09:37 AM
  #62
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I would also add that Minnesota may not be in a position to pay Vanek what he wants. It's great that they have the cap space, but one has to wonder what the Suter and Parise contracts are doing to their cash flow. Keep in mind that the first three years of their contracts were paid mostly as bonuses which means they got paid massive amounts up front in July. By the time free agency rolls around they will have paid each one $25 million dollars up front, and have collected only 1.5 seasons worth of revenue. I think that both got paid almost all of their contract in the lockout year despite missing half a year of hockey. If they don't make the playoffs this season (go Phoenix and Dallas), that is even less revenue they have to make an offer.

I think if you make a contract offer that is heavy on signing bonuses (if such are still permissible under the new CBA), you might be able to snatch him up.

Just a thought
This. Good point. Minny is probably still in rough shape financially due to the Parise and Suter contracts. They took a bath during the lockout year and probably will lose money this year too. Parise and Suter each get $11 million next season too, so I really doubt they want to take on Vanek as well, who could be at $11 million next year on a front loaded contract too.

Minny already has $71 million committed to salaries next year (actual dollar amounts, not cap hits) and that's for only 16 players. I doubt they want to fork over $11 million to Vanek as well.

Yes, Heatley comes off the books, but despite his cap hit, he was only making $5 million this year. To go from $5 million for Heatley up to $11 million for Vanek would be another huge pill to swallow for ownership. They 've likely made the playoffs this year, but will get steamrolled by St Louis or Anaheim / San Jose in the first round, so it's not like playoff money will offset those gigantic contracts.

That's why I think they'll try to retain Moulson instead. He's a good player and will be far cheaper than Vanek, both in terms of cap hit and initial 2014-15 salary / signing bonus.

The Parise and Suter signings were probably supposed to be the only big splash Minny would make over the next decade - they need some lower payroll years to offset the gobs of money they lost upfront on those 2 deals. Adding Vanek on a front loaded contract makes it that much worse for them.

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04-01-2014, 10:36 AM
  #63
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I personally would not want to give up that kind of money to 30+ year old player. Would rather give it to a younger player with through the roof upside. If Vanek was the last piece. I'd have no problem. But the team needs to do a lot of work before thy can think of contending year in and year out.
Well, one of the things the team needs is a top scoring winger who can help give them a consistent 5-on-5 scoring threat, and Vanek sure looks like that. It might even be the biggest need.

Another thing they need is more of a consistent scoring threat on a second line. I would propose that the ongoing development of Galchenyuk and Gallagher are the keys to that.

Depth and role players up front are not an issue... I think we have those.

The team could benefit from a boost on the blueline. We've only got a relatively short window while still having Markov included in the mix though. Emelin stepping up, Gorges healthy, Subban bouncing back, and the ongoing development of hopes like Tinordi and Beaulieu... some of the pieces are in place and it becomes more a question of if/when those options pan out, rather than a question of whether we even have the options or not.

So, although there are conditionals in there, Vanek _might_ actually be something like the last piece. If things go well on the developmental front, at least.

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04-01-2014, 11:18 AM
  #64
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Vanek will get minimum 8 years 64 million the same contract Kessel got,Vanek is a proven 2 time 40 goal scorer,Kessel has never scored 40.

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04-01-2014, 11:34 AM
  #65
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PHI is probably gonna give an insane offer cuz that's just what Holmgren does, come free agency time.

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04-01-2014, 11:39 AM
  #66
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Vanek wants to go to a contender and wants to get paid

That'll eliminate 2/3rds of the teams right off the start

Wild, Habs, Ducks would be my picks
The Ducks? No way. They have their susperstars signed and they need offensive support plus resign their developing players. They won't sign another forward at 7+ mil a season. It's all about Minny with Heatly hitting free agency.

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04-01-2014, 11:47 AM
  #67
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The Ducks? No way. They have their susperstars signed and they need offensive support plus resign their developing players. They won't sign another forward at 7+ mil a season. It's all about Minny with Heatly hitting free agency.
Yeah, This is where MB needs to show the city that he's a top tier GM. Getting Vanek to sign with something reasonable (8x7), giving away Giontas salary to him.


He has to see that we have all the pieces to be a cup contender. This year will give him a good experience with the habs for a cup run. The building is going to erupt during the playoffs and they'll see the crowd cheer for him unlike any other fan base.



Vanek stay pls
i wannan ware 20 on my back

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04-01-2014, 04:27 PM
  #68
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The Ducks? No way. They have their susperstars signed and they need offensive support plus resign their developing players. They won't sign another forward at 7+ mil a season. It's all about Minny with Heatly hitting free agency.
Next season Ducks have about $24MM in cap space with 17 players signed, we have $27MM with only 15 signed and Markov and Subban will eat up half of that

Anaheim is in just as good a position as us to make an offer

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04-01-2014, 05:48 PM
  #69
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All you guys thinking he's going to take 7x7.5 or less are crazy.

Here's some food for thought:

1) Vanek is UFA and has all the leverage
2) Vanek already basically has that type of contract
3) Vanek will have 15-20 vying for his services
4) Vanek will have 10 teams he'd consider playing on vying for his services
5) Of those 10 teams, it would be naive to think none are already offering 7x7.5 to play for a contender, in arguably a better city, in arguably a better state/province
6) At least 2-3 GM's are idiots like Holmgren and will offer him crazy money to counteract our GM's extra year.

Now, forget the Minnesota ties and even some of my speculation right here and just think using a little common sense, some empathy and put yourself in his shoes. Put yourself in the shoes for the agent for a sec.

You think he and his client are going to take 7x7 from the team that traded assets to get him, to the very same team he has over a barrel? I think not. The agent wants what is in his own best interest, and so does Vanek. The bare minimum in my opinion would be 7 years 8 mil, and I think I'm being generous, I'm expecting 8x8 or 8x8.5, 7x8.5 bare minimum.

Other factors: the recent lockout, cap going up, similar players contracts, contracts of players who are far inferior being in the 6m range.

It's just not logical to expect anything less than the numbers I mentioned, but one can definitely hope, and I'll definitely have my plate of crow waiting at the HF table if I'm wrong, but I just doubt it in this instance.

I'm not the biggest Bergevin fan, but if he can lock up Vanek for anything up to and including any of the numbers I mentioned above, he'll have won me over. It's a very bold move and the guy is a perfect fit for us.

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04-02-2014, 12:00 PM
  #70
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How come Mtl can offer him 8 years and other clubs just 7?
Can someone pls give me a short explanation?

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04-02-2014, 12:05 PM
  #71
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How come Mtl can offer him 8 years and other clubs just 7?
Can someone pls give me a short explanation?
New CBA allows teams to give an extra year (8 in total) in re-signing their own players.

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04-02-2014, 12:15 PM
  #72
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watching him since his arrival, I notice his competitiveness and his ability (like Hossa) to win battles for the puck, and his quick release, and a smile on his face! He is what we need to mentor others and a missing piece since Kovalev! He has the rest of his life to retire in Minnesota, but to spend the next 7-8 years playing in MONTREAL with line mates (long term deals also) that click in NA's most European city .... I think the HABS offer he and his family lots of positives from a professional and personal level!

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04-02-2014, 12:19 PM
  #73
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How come Mtl can offer him 8 years and other clubs just 7?
Can someone pls give me a short explanation?
According to the chart, once free agency opens Montreal loses the ability to sign him to an 8 year deal.

He wants to test the market and will, so the best we can do is sign him to a 7 year deal.

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/CBA...2013%20(1).pdf

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04-02-2014, 12:56 PM
  #74
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The Wild can offer him 7 years instead of 6 years. The Habs can offer him 8 years but only before he reaches UFA. If he becomes a UFA the max offer the Habs can give him is the same 7 years as every other team apparently.
Yep, that's why I hope for a good playoffs run... if he likes it here and we make an 8 years offer, it might be very difficult for him to refuse it...

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04-02-2014, 02:18 PM
  #75
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According to the chart, once free agency opens Montreal loses the ability to sign him to an 8 year deal.

He wants to test the market and will, so the best we can do is sign him to a 7 year deal.

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/CBA...2013%20(1).pdf
Yeah but since the new CBA, isn't there a week between the draft and free agency when teams are allowed to discuss with free agents?

So Vanek can see what offer is out there during this week but his rights still belong to the Canadiens so we could potentially sign him to an 8 year contract after he had a chance to field other offers?

On another note, correct me if I'm wrong but the reason that Vanek stated to decline the Buffalo offer and the Isles offer was that he didn't want to be part of a long rebuilding process.

In other words he wants to be on a competitive team during his remaining prime years. In that sense, I think the Habs playoff performance might be the predominant factor for his decision provided that the offers are all pretty much in the same range (around 7mil per for 7 years I'd guess).

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