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04-17-2014, 03:52 PM
  #551
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BackSpasm Kovy View Post
For the number of Hits on the road vs the number of hits at home, we seemed to control the game more at home then when we are away.

Our record at home (21-11-9) and our record away (14-18-9) speaks for itself.
This discrepancy exists all around the NHL and has existed for a long time. http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/6/fixin...hit-statistics

There is some logic to the idea that it's more difficult to play on the road and thus teams will be more on the defensive, however every team faces that challenge.

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04-17-2014, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Come on gramps, you can't lump every single number into a category called stats and treat them identically.

A stat like hits, which has been proven to be severely biased/flawed, is not a good descriptor of on-ice play.
You have got to be kidding me. You cite a guy with a theory using some "markup value" of what you claim are flawed stats to validate stats?

You'd never win a court case with this junk "science".

Quote:
My belief is that this has more to do with road undercounting than with favoritism by the home team. The home scorer sees their team more frequently; naturally, they’re more familiar with the players involved and they’re less likely to miss a hit. With an unfamiliar road team, it’s easier to miss out.
Yeah that isn't evidence - that's an opinion. Also hilarious is the fact that his theory is directly opposite what his "evidence" says is the case for New Jersey. He says Home hits are vastly exaggerated while for New Jersey they are only 80% of the Road Hits.

Well I'm sold. 1/3rd of his data points counter his master premise. Sounds legit.

And don't forget teams always play the same at home and on the road. They're not allowed to play differently by matching lines or getting the last change.

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04-17-2014, 04:10 PM
  #553
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Originally Posted by Richer's Ghost View Post
You have got to be kidding me. You cite a guy with a theory using some "markup value" of what you claim are flawed stats to validate stats?

You'd never win a court case with this junk "science".



Yeah that isn't evidence - that's an opinion. Also hilarious is the fact that his theory is directly opposite what his "evidence" says is the case for New Jersey. He says Home hits are vastly exaggerated while for New Jersey they are only 80% of the Road Hits.

Well I'm sold. 1/3rd of his data points counter his master premise. Sounds legit.

And don't forget teams always play the same at home and on the road. They're not allowed to play differently by matching lines or getting the last change.

Can we close this thread because it is history he is still the coach!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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04-17-2014, 04:16 PM
  #554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richer's Ghost View Post
You have got to be kidding me. You cite a guy with a theory using some "normalization" of what you claim are flawed stats to validate stats?

You'd never win a court case with this junk "science".



Yeah that isn't evidence - that's an opinion. Also hilarious is the fact that his theory is directly opposite what his "evidence" says is the case for New Jersey. He says Home hits are vastly exaggerated while for New Jersey they are only 80% of the Road Hits.

Well I'm sold. 1/3rd of his data points counter his master premise. Sounds legit.
His theory about home favoritism might be true, it might not. I don't really care. What I care about is that there is definitely scorer bias (whether it's favoritism or general leniency or general strictness) in counting hits. That much cannot be argued by those numbers.

As a result, it's much better to utilize road hits because it takes away any chance of a home scorer bias.

The hits stat is not inherently flawed. It is flawed when 50% of the hits stat is influenced by a scorer who is very strict (or lenient) in terms of counting hits. It should be noted the Devils stat counter also undercounts shots and blocked shots, so this is not an isolated incident.

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2010/7/8...the-new-jersey
The standard deviation for hits among all NHL teams in a given season is about 65% lower on the road than at home. this indicates that there's something pretty funky in the numbers for home hits, which is most likely scorer bias.


Last edited by Feed Me A Stray Cat: 04-17-2014 at 04:27 PM.
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