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Ontario Politics - Provincial Election June 12, 2014

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Old
05-07-2014, 04:40 PM
  #101
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Left-wing policies generally cause kneejerk reactions by big businesses and increase government spending on social programs. Those things don't change the economy immediately, especially one that has been entrenched with right leaning policies for 20 years.
That has not been the experience in BC under the BC NDP of the Barrett administration (September 15, 1972 – December 22, 1975) and the Harcourt/Clark/Miller/Dosanjh adminstration (November 5, 1991 – June 5, 2001).

Each time it took years to dig out from under the economic disasters wrought by the BC NDP - first by the Bill Bennett Socreds and then the BC Liberals under Campbell.

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05-07-2014, 04:46 PM
  #102
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That has not been the experience in BC under the BC NDP of the Barrett administration (September 15, 1972 – December 22, 1975) and the Harcourt/Clark/Miller/Dosanjh adminstration (November 5, 1991 – June 5, 2001).

Each time it took years to dig out from under the economic disasters wrought by the BC NDP - first by the Bill Bennett Socreds and then the BC Liberals under Campbell.
I've never read anything about BC politics, other than Adrian Dix's recent crash and burn after a 20 point lead. What kind of policies did Campbell and Bennett push?

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05-07-2014, 05:41 PM
  #103
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I've never read anything about BC politics, other than Adrian Dix's recent crash and burn after a 20 point lead. What kind of policies did Campbell and Bennett push?
Right of centre free enterprise coalitions.

As a result of a series of disastrous budgets under the BC NDP British Columbia was a "have-not" province for just over five years, ending in 2006–2007 as result of BC NDP policies and our credit rating was trashed. Our credit rating in 1999 dropped to AA-. In April 1999, the CBRS, Standard and Poor’s and the Dominion Bond rating service all downgraded B.C. to AA- after the NDP delivered its eighth consecutive deficit budget.

In 2005 the rating was restored to AA and in October 2006 to AAA and it continued strong.

Prior to the May 2013 election Moody's expressed concern that a change in government could have a serious financial impact - remember the BC NDP was pretty much guaranteed a majority win according to the polls and pundits so there was a negative slant to the April 2013 report. The service cited BC's "prudent fiscal management" under the BC Liberals.
http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/PT/dmb/ref/...odys130404.pdf

In September 2013 after Clark's surprise comeback Moody's lauded BC's AAA credit rating as the strongest in Canada.
http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/PT/dmb/ref/ratingMoodys.pdf

Fortunately it seemed the BC voters were paying attention and did not let the BC NDP back to the trough.

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05-07-2014, 06:34 PM
  #104
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Are there any examples of an NDP government that didn't crash and burn?

I didn't grow up in Canada so my history of the NDP isn't all that great but I think only one of Manitoba/Saskatchewan have had a positive experience with prolonged NDP governments no?

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05-07-2014, 06:45 PM
  #105
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Are there any examples of an NDP government that didn't crash and burn?

I didn't grow up in Canada so my history of the NDP isn't all that great but I think only one of Manitoba/Saskatchewan have had a positive experience with prolonged NDP governments no?
Saskatchewan did well, and Manitoba's doing well (the government is probably going to lose in the next election, but because of a hike in HST, not a disaster of epic proportions).

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05-07-2014, 06:55 PM
  #106
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So both of them eh?

Interesting that now that they are growing at a quicker pace the NDP seems to have fallen out of favour

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05-07-2014, 07:03 PM
  #107
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So both of them eh?

Interesting that now that they are growing at a quicker pace the NDP seems to have fallen out of favour
The problem is that when the NDP was genuine, investment would fly out of the province whenever they took over (except in Saskatchewan, which is because I assume there was little investment there to begin with). That was what led to most of Rae's troubles in Ontario.

Now that NDP provinical governments are nothing new, I doubt the NDP would have as big of a recession on their hands if they took over in Ontario, if they'd have a recession at all. They'd likely shift to the center, like they did in Manitoba.

BC politics is just a joke in general, it shouldn't be used as a rule in anything.

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05-07-2014, 11:59 PM
  #108
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This is what should happen, but federal politics is simply more interesting to people. Even now, 90 percent of Ontario don't care about these scandals.
Any explanation for this? Identity perhaps?

How rampant is cynicism at the provincial level?

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05-08-2014, 06:54 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Wetcoaster View Post
Right of centre free enterprise coalitions.

As a result of a series of disastrous budgets under the BC NDP British Columbia was a "have-not" province for just over five years, ending in 2006–2007 as result of BC NDP policies and our credit rating was trashed. Our credit rating in 1999 dropped to AA-. In April 1999, the CBRS, Standard and Poor’s and the Dominion Bond rating service all downgraded B.C. to AA- after the NDP delivered its eighth consecutive deficit budget.

In 2005 the rating was restored to AA and in October 2006 to AAA and it continued strong.

Prior to the May 2013 election Moody's expressed concern that a change in government could have a serious financial impact - remember the BC NDP was pretty much guaranteed a majority win according to the polls and pundits so there was a negative slant to the April 2013 report. The service cited BC's "prudent fiscal management" under the BC Liberals.
http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/PT/dmb/ref/...odys130404.pdf

In September 2013 after Clark's surprise comeback Moody's lauded BC's AAA credit rating as the strongest in Canada.
http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/PT/dmb/ref/ratingMoodys.pdf

Fortunately it seemed the BC voters were paying attention and did not let the BC NDP back to the trough.
Maybe it's the hangover talking, but this seems to support what I said about big business freaking out and the government running up spending, which sounds like serious short-term pain. It sounds like the BC NDP was similar to the Ontario NDP in the sense of deficit issues. The biggest need is getting wealth re-distributed and people back to work, as taxes are far too low to run a proper society. I know a lot of people will hit the roof when it comes to higher taxes, but it's human nature to try and get as much for as little as possible.

Call me cynical, but I don't read too much into financial industry reports that slam left-wing policies. All this tells me is that financial industries have a lot more wealth and influence than they should. Which I don't think most people would disagree with.

Your post does give me something to think of, though. That being idealistic is all well and good, but if it's not practical enough to happen, the discussion remains pie-in-the-sky academic. I'll think some more about this.

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05-08-2014, 07:06 AM
  #110
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Any explanation for this? Identity perhaps?

How rampant is cynicism at the provincial level?
I don't know if it's about identity, although I'm sure that plays a part. There are a lot of immigrants that tend to come from more conservative cultures, so there's often a built-in distrust of the government as an institution. For those who don't speak english very well, it's easy to be manipulated by scare-tactics from the right (gravy train, anyone?).

That, and the province doesn't have many of the same interesting issues that you see at the federal and provincial level.

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05-08-2014, 08:35 AM
  #111
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I don't know if it's about identity, although I'm sure that plays a part. There are a lot of immigrants that tend to come from more conservative cultures, so there's often a built-in distrust of the government as an institution. For those who don't speak english very well, it's easy to be manipulated by scare-tactics from the right (gravy train, anyone?).
These immigrants from the more conservative cultures usually distrust both levels... and not just Queen's Park.

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That, and the province doesn't have many of the same interesting issues that you see at the federal level.
Fixed for you. It is true that many of the society-changing issues are decided at the federal level, hence why I once said that federal and provincial politics should be given equal amounts of media space. Despite what some may have led me to believe in the past, social issues still interest people, just like these other issues that affect the people in their day-to-day lives.

In stark contrast to Quebec, which has proven in the past that it was not afraid to tackle sensitive social issues, Queen's Park seems not to engage in social debate as much.

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05-08-2014, 01:01 PM
  #112
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The behavioural consensus at Queen's Park historically has been to stay out of the limelight, walk quietly, do things in the shadows and let the voters sleep. When voters wake up, it's usually to grumble and that makes governance more difficult.

Ontario at one point was much like Alberta, electing Conservative government for decades on end. That changed in the 1980's, more liberal boomers started to vote and the demographics changed with different immigration patterns (outside the Commonwealth).

And it's the oldest strategy in the book near the end of an election, to pull out the fear cards. For the NDP, if they are up in the polls, the news articles before the vote are always about the upcoming economic apocalypse should the socialists win. I guess they do it because it works on nervous-nelly 'undecideds' or switch voters.

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05-08-2014, 01:45 PM
  #113
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Maybe it's the hangover talking, but this seems to support what I said about big business freaking out and the government running up spending, which sounds like serious short-term pain. It sounds like the BC NDP was similar to the Ontario NDP in the sense of deficit issues. The biggest need is getting wealth re-distributed and people back to work, as taxes are far too low to run a proper society. I know a lot of people will hit the roof when it comes to higher taxes, but it's human nature to try and get as much for as little as possible.

Call me cynical, but I don't read too much into financial industry reports that slam left-wing policies. All this tells me is that financial industries have a lot more wealth and influence than they should. Which I don't think most people would disagree with.

Your post does give me something to think of, though. That being idealistic is all well and good, but if it's not practical enough to happen, the discussion remains pie-in-the-sky academic. I'll think some more about this.
It was way more than business freaking out. It was a series and policies and budgets that drove business out in BC. Capital is portable.

You are cynical and uninformed.

I would pay attention to bond rating services (they do not lend) who do extensive research because their decisions have a huge financial impact - downgrading credit costs the taxpayers billions in additional borrowing costs because that is what sets the interest rate for the province.

In BC lower taxes have increased business activity and increased provincial revenues.

Similarly at the federal level this has occurred and the result is that Canada has overtaken the US and particularly in the area of income inequality.

A comprehensive global analysis reported by the New York Times several weeks ago finds that the U.S. can no longer boast the world’s most affluent middle class, a status now held by Canada. Since 2000, Canadian median income is up 19.7 per cent; the number for the U.S. is 0.3 per cent.
(G)overnments in Canada... take more aggressive steps to raise the take-home pay of low- and middle-income households by redistributing income.

Janet Gornick, the director of LIS, noted that inequality in so-called market incomes — which does not count taxes or government benefits — “is high but not off the charts in the United States.” Yet the American rich pay lower taxes than the rich in many other places, and the United States does not redistribute as much income to the poor as other countries do. As a result, inequality in disposable income is sharply higher in the United States than elsewhere.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/up...e=article&_r=0

Trudeau claims he will focus on the middle class but the CPC has beaten him to the punch and will continue to do so under new Finance Minister Joe Oliver:
Canada’s new Finance Minister Joe Oliver, who will be attending his first IMF meeting, has said he’ll be consulting with Canadians on what to do with an expected $6 billion surplus in next year’s federal budget.

His focus will be on providing tax relief to Canadian families, he said in his first speech in Toronto Monday.
And from the Financial Post two weeks ago - William Watson: Canada’s booming middle class undermines Justin Trudeau.
If you were Justin Trudeau, Tuesday was an awful day for you. Here you’ve made the plight of Canada’s beleaguered middle class the whole point of your life in politics — even if you can’t quite say who exactly is in that middle class — and then along comes the New York Times to declare that Canada, not the United States, now has the world’s richest middle class. The New York Times, mind you. The impeccably liberal New York Times.


...

And the news just keeps on getting worse. The LIS data (formerly for “Luxembourg Income Study” but now just LIS) that the Times based its report on shows that between 2004 and 2010 real income in Canada increased very impressively on all rungs of the income ladder. It seems Tory times have been good times for every class of Canadian. People near the top, at the 95th centile, saw their after-tax-and-government transfers incomes go up by more than ten grand. And although the incomes of people at the bottom end, the 5th centile, only grew by $1178, that was actually a bigger percentage increase: 14.5% vs. 10.8%. Every other income group in Canada also got at least a $1000 increase, with the smallest percentage gain being 9.1 and the largest being that bottom-end’s 14.5.
Despite the steep drop in world commodity prices, the range of forecasts for Canadian GDP growth this year is a respectable 2.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is among forecasters at home and abroad that have readjusted upward their predictions for Canadian economic growth.
http://www.thestar.com/business/econ...a_economy.html

Many years ago, legendary BC Premier WAC Bennett remarked on the quality of financial acumen of the NDP -

"They couldn't run a peanut stand."

And he has been proven correct.


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05-08-2014, 02:55 PM
  #114
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The behavioural consensus at Queen's Park historically has been to stay out of the limelight, walk quietly, do things in the shadows and let the voters sleep. When voters wake up, it's usually to grumble and that makes governance more difficult.
Would Ontario benefit if Queen's Park didn't shy away from the limelight as much?

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05-08-2014, 03:03 PM
  #115
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WHOA, Canada's done better than the USA? WHAT A SHOCK!

What about this chart from The Economist:



Think maybe a housing bubble might hurt the middle class?

If we can't point to specific policy that the Cons have undertaken that made marked changes in our economy vs. the USA, then what point is even being made?

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05-08-2014, 05:02 PM
  #116
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In BC lower taxes have increased business activity and increased provincial revenues.

Similarly at the federal level this has occurred and the result is that Canada has overtaken the US and particularly in the area of income inequality.
That is hilarious logic.

The ole trickle down never worked in the first place let alone any time someone has tried it since.

Canada has overtaken the US in income inequality because the US is steadily getting worse as the feudal overlords complete their take over of the country.

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05-08-2014, 05:24 PM
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That is hilarious logic.

The ole trickle down never worked in the first place let alone any time someone has tried it since.

Canada has overtaken the US in income inequality because the US is steadily getting worse as the feudal overlords complete their take over of the country.
Not logic - fact.

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05-08-2014, 05:46 PM
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05-09-2014, 10:43 AM
  #119
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Whoa, 100k jobs...
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“Our government is growing bigger than we can afford,” Mr. Hudak said. “We’re spending more and more with money we don’t have, and piling up enormous debt.”

Mr. Hudak did not say exactly which jobs would be cut, but promised not to touch doctors, nurses or police officers. He suggested instead that he would mostly look to eliminate administrative positions and to privatize some services.
LCBO is 4k on it's on btw, so you've got to think that's part of the privatized services.

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05-09-2014, 10:49 AM
  #120
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Would Ontario benefit if Queen's Park didn't shy away from the limelight as much?
Sure. More open govt., more transparency, more participation is good for democracy.

Just ask Conservatives though, Harper promised all that federally and hardly delivered; in fact his centralizing micro-managing style actually went the other direction. The opposition complained about Harper's prorogations and omnibus bills but provincially, McGuinty did much the same.

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05-09-2014, 10:54 AM
  #121
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Whoa, 100k jobs...


LCBO is 4k on it's on btw, so you've got to think that's part of the privatized services.
Holy cow, 100,000 people will be put out of work if Hudak wins? That's as good a reason as any to vote for anyone else.

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05-09-2014, 11:25 AM
  #122
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Holy cow, 100,000 people will be put out of work if Hudak wins? That's as good a reason as any to vote for anyone else.
Slashing public-sector jobs is red meat for Ford Nation though, they are salivating at the lips translating that into lower taxes for themselves.

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05-09-2014, 11:26 AM
  #123
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Holy cow, 100,000 people will be put out of work if Hudak wins? That's as good a reason as any to vote for anyone else.
Recent tweets suggest that there are only 508,000 (as of 2011) jobs that Hudak has jurisdiction over.

So he's cutting about 20% of the jobs he has under him.

Scaaary.

Oh, and then there's this:

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Paul Boothe (UWO Ivey Professor) ‏@pmboothe ·22 mins

.@acoyne Compared to QC, AB & BC, ON has smallest PS per capita - both general govt and broader public service

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05-09-2014, 11:27 AM
  #124
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So I see Hudak's plan for creating jobs is to create more tax credits. Yes, you're giving the unemployed tax credits. Good job.

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05-09-2014, 11:41 AM
  #125
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Where did the Conservatives hide Rob Ford during the election? Maybe he is in Hudak's basement printing leaflets (colloquially known as the Hudak Rehabilitation Centre).

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