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David Conte: Not an analytics fan

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Old
06-03-2014, 12:45 PM
  #1
Bear of Bad News
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David Conte: Not an analytics fan

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-...tics/159/60382

I guess we can put the Devils in the "no analytics" camp (unless of course he wants us to think that).

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06-03-2014, 01:32 PM
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He's previously talked quite a bit about people these days making the game too technical when he views it as more of an emotional game. Obviously the mechanics are important but he favors intuition. Which I think is a fair position.

I do think it's interesting that while Conte and Lou don't like advanced statistics, the teams they've built have consistently been superb possession teams for a while now. So I'd argue they DO support advanced statistics, but they've figured it out via eye test instead of numbers on a spreadsheet. The product is the same, they just used a different method.

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06-03-2014, 01:48 PM
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I'd agree with that - to the extent that analytics lead to team-building theories, it stands to reason that (1) others would come up with similar theories in a non-analytic way, and (2) the successful theories would rise to the top (in a genetic algorithm sense).

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06-03-2014, 02:11 PM
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In the meantime, Hextall in Philly has affirmed their faith in analytics.

Of course, he also said they've BEEN using them, which raises several questions about what they're using.

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06-03-2014, 04:20 PM
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In January, the New Jersey Devils publicly posted a job opening for a position called director of hockey analytics that was fascinating for a number of reasons. For one, the Devils aren’t often seen as a franchise on the forefront of using advanced stats and hockey analytics. Secondly, if Lou Lamoriello was, in fact, joining the advanced stats movement in hockey, it was stunning that we’d find out about it publicly. Nobody runs a tighter ship than Lamoriello when it comes to containing information, and teams tend to keep their analytics use very private.

The result of the public posting, however, was a barrage of applicants.

“We’ve had... I don’t know how many applicants,” Lamoriello said when we chatted on the topic last week.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/crai...ytics-movement


The Devils new owners like analytics so I would be very surprised if analytics weren't a part of how the team views players in the future.

Although in that article I don't see Conte really dismissing advanced stats, he's just saying from what I sense is that it just reaffirms what they already know.

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06-05-2014, 10:25 AM
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Misdirect

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-...tics/159/60382

I guess we can put the Devils in the "no analytics" camp (unless of course he wants us to think that).
Classic misdirect.

Devils are very strong on analytics. Evidenced by the style and systems based on Brodeur's strengths and their objection to the intro of the trapezoid.

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06-09-2014, 11:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
He's previously talked quite a bit about people these days making the game too technical when he views it as more of an emotional game. Obviously the mechanics are important but he favors intuition. Which I think is a fair position.

I do think it's interesting that while Conte and Lou don't like advanced statistics, the teams they've built have consistently been superb possession teams for a while now. So I'd argue they DO support advanced statistics, but they've figured it out via eye test instead of numbers on a spreadsheet. The product is the same, they just used a different method.
From a fan's perspective, it doesn't really make a difference, does it? The goal is to build a winning team. Statistical analysis is simply one way to reach that goal.

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06-12-2014, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Matt Flynn ‏@MFlynnRaleigh 6h
Sunny Mehta was just appointed Director of Analytics for the New Jersey Devils!
https://twitter.com/MFlynnRaleigh/st...77125053157376

So there it is, we have an Executive Vice President of Corsi now.

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06-12-2014, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
https://twitter.com/MFlynnRaleigh/st...77125053157376

So there it is, we have an Executive Vice President of Corsi now.
any info on who he is?

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06-12-2014, 09:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
any info on who he is?
Sunny Mehta was a professional gambler and has written some blog entries about hockey which were posted on some of the first hockey analytics blogs (Vic Ferrari's if memory serves). And he is a lifelong Devils fan which apparently was a factor.

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06-12-2014, 09:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schuckers View Post
Sunny Mehta was a professional gambler and has written some blog entries about hockey which were posted on some of the first hockey analytics blogs (Vic Ferrari's if memory serves). And he is a lifelong Devils fan which apparently was a factor.
cool thanks, made a quick search on google and found a poker player. Wasn't sure it was him.

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06-14-2014, 02:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Classic misdirect.

Devils are very strong on analytics. Evidenced by the style and systems based on Brodeur's strengths and their objection to the intro of the trapezoid.
That really doesn't mean much. Current popular analytics measure puck possession, and puck possession systems have been around for ages. It's not like in baseball where people started looking at the game differently(not making outs), this has been around for a very long time, but analytics like corsi have attempted to measure it.

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06-14-2014, 09:56 AM
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Canadiens

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Originally Posted by Gibsons Finest View Post
That really doesn't mean much. Current popular analytics measure puck possession, and puck possession systems have been around for ages. It's not like in baseball where people started looking at the game differently(not making outs), this has been around for a very long time, but analytics like corsi have attempted to measure it.
See Jacques Lemaire who brought analytical elements from the Canadiens who used analytics tailored to their team from the early Dick Irvin Sr. days going forward thru Blake, Bowman, Lemaire, etc.

This has been documented.

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06-14-2014, 09:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
See Jacques Lemaire who brought analytical elements from the Canadiens who used analytics tailored to their team from the early Dick Irvin Sr. days going forward thru Blake, Bowman, Lemaire, etc.

This has been documented.
Yeah, analytical elements, which most teams in any league will also share given the resources. We're talking about possession metrics and the like, which the Devils really don't appear to fuss much over, despite playing a possession style. It's not the same thing.

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06-18-2014, 10:14 AM
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Suggesting....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibsons Finest View Post
Yeah, analytical elements, which most teams in any league will also share given the resources. We're talking about possession metrics and the like, which the Devils really don't appear to fuss much over, despite playing a possession style. It's not the same thing.
Suggesting that you are completely familiar with and know what metrics the NHL teams going back to the mid thirties actually used.

Within the last twelve months research - Tarheelshockey found evidence of TOI data from the mid 1930s SC finals(1936), others have posted links about pre 1943-44 faceoff data and how it seems to have been broken down to serious analysis, 1954 Canadiens using Corsi like analysis to explain Bernie Geoffrion emergence as a scorer,maybe six months after Jim Corsi was born. BM67s continuous work mining early(pre WWII SV% data).

Kindly explain how things were different from today.

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06-18-2014, 10:34 AM
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My guess is that teams have been tracking TOI far longer than it's been made public (certainly back at least to when games were taped).

Certainly number of shifts were tracked as a proxy for ice time. I came up with that coaching college, and there's a hell of a lot smarter coaches than me out there.

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06-18-2014, 05:06 PM
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Post 1928-29

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
My guess is that teams have been tracking TOI far longer than it's been made public (certainly back at least to when games were taped).

Certainly number of shifts were tracked as a proxy for ice time. I came up with that coaching college, and there's a hell of a lot smarter coaches than me out there.
Prior to the start of the 1929-30 season the NHL rosters were not big enough to track full time although there are reports from SC Finals about quick shifting to get an advantage 1925 SC finals Victoria vs Montréal.

From the early twenties onwards substitutions were tracked. Frequency increased as a game progressed.

Tarheels found a report from the 1936 SC Final which showed TOI for both teams, Toronto and Detroit.

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06-18-2014, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Suggesting that you are completely familiar with and know what metrics the NHL teams going back to the mid thirties actually used.

Within the last twelve months research - Tarheelshockey found evidence of TOI data from the mid 1930s SC finals(1936), others have posted links about pre 1943-44 faceoff data and how it seems to have been broken down to serious analysis, 1954 Canadiens using Corsi like analysis to explain Bernie Geoffrion emergence as a scorer,maybe six months after Jim Corsi was born. BM67s continuous work mining early(pre WWII SV% data).

Kindly explain how things were different from today.
Did you read my post? I said the article specifically talks about possession metrics, which Conte goes on record saying he doesn't give a care about. You suggested that he's lying because they use analytical elements on a coaching level, or better yet, did when Lemaire was their coach. These aren't the same thing.

Who cares if they used a "Corsi-like analysis" in 1954? Well, obviously many would, but how do you go from that to Lou Lams being a big Corsi guy?

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06-19-2014, 09:49 AM
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Reading

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibsons Finest View Post
Did you read my post? I said the article specifically talks about possession metrics, which Conte goes on record saying he doesn't give a care about. You suggested that he's lying because they use analytical elements on a coaching level, or better yet, did when Lemaire was their coach. These aren't the same thing.

Who cares if they used a "Corsi-like analysis" in 1954? Well, obviously many would, but how do you go from that to Lou Lams being a big Corsi guy?
I did read your post. NHL teams regularly misdirect any information that is even mildly proprietary or would give the opposition an advantage. From the famous "upper body injury/lower body injury" distinction that is presently in vague to the various analytics or how a team nuances their metrics.

Re Corsi. What Corsi brought into the open or formulized was being used by NHL teams before Jim Corsi was even born(1954). Check the background of Jim Corsi's college coach and you will see the roots of the metric. Lou Lamariello at Providence and other NHL feeder coaches were using the same approach while Jim Corsi was still trying to solve Bantam hockey shooters.

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06-19-2014, 05:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
I did read your post. NHL teams regularly misdirect any information that is even mildly proprietary or would give the opposition an advantage. From the famous "upper body injury/lower body injury" distinction that is presently in vague to the various analytics or how a team nuances their metrics.

Re Corsi. What Corsi brought into the open or formulized was being used by NHL teams before Jim Corsi was even born(1954). Check the background of Jim Corsi's college coach and you will see the roots of the metric. Lou Lamariello at Providence and other NHL feeder coaches were using the same approach while Jim Corsi was still trying to solve Bantam hockey shooters.
What evidence, other than your conjecture, is there of a misdirect? The injury thing has always made sense, but where's the logic here? They want other teams to think they don't like possession metrics because? Conte even went into heavy detail about it. But I suppose he's just making all that up, correct?

As for Lamoriello, where's the evidence? Where's the detail. You've said a lot of things, but shown zero sources and zero examples. All we know is that the Devils only recently even hired a guy to look after analytics, and being a Devils fan was apparently a factor in hiring the guy, which should say a lot, and all of what Conte said.

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06-19-2014, 06:32 PM
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Conte's Quotes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibsons Finest View Post
What evidence, other than your conjecture, is there of a misdirect? The injury thing has always made sense, but where's the logic here? They want other teams to think they don't like possession metrics because? Conte even went into heavy detail about it. But I suppose he's just making all that up, correct?

As for Lamoriello, where's the evidence? Where's the detail. You've said a lot of things, but shown zero sources and zero examples. All we know is that the Devils only recently even hired a guy to look after analytics, and being a Devils fan was apparently a factor in hiring the guy, which should say a lot, and all of what Conte said.
First quote:

"I don't read that stuff. I think it's all cosmetic. I don't think it means anything. You win your battles you win the game. What you do when it doesn't matter isn't nearly as important as what you do when it does matter. I think analytics have a great place in certain things but the sampling of hockey is a little different. It's mono-on-mono, and I don't know if I agree with all that. We're certainly trying to utilize all that, but again that's history. What's going to happen tomorrow?"

Second quote:

"I would. But I think there are things you can quantify. I think there's a lot of things that can be used for it. Unfortunately I think it's a lot of people telling me what I already know. I know when guys are not good in the last minute. I know that. I've been watching them for 30 years. I know there are certain guys you can count on and I also know you make a great shot and it hits the post and goes one way, and you make a great shot and it goes the other way, it's a big difference."

Evidence is in the quotes and the HFboards posts referred to previously, basic search function will get you the required info you ask for.

Conte and Lamoriello have over 75 years combined in hockey at the elite level.

Back to the Brodeur example. Issue was that the Devils enjoyed low SOGs against when Brodeur was not confined by the trapezoid but allowd to roam. Suddenly Conte's and Lamoriello's view of the past - history, changed because now the data foretold the future. The edge Brodeur'mobility brought would be neutralized. My point.

Hence the misdirect comment.

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06-19-2014, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
First quote:

"I don't read that stuff. I think it's all cosmetic. I don't think it means anything. You win your battles you win the game. What you do when it doesn't matter isn't nearly as important as what you do when it does matter. I think analytics have a great place in certain things but the sampling of hockey is a little different. It's mono-on-mono, and I don't know if I agree with all that. We're certainly trying to utilize all that, but again that's history. What's going to happen tomorrow?"

Second quote:

"I would. But I think there are things you can quantify. I think there's a lot of things that can be used for it. Unfortunately I think it's a lot of people telling me what I already know. I know when guys are not good in the last minute. I know that. I've been watching them for 30 years. I know there are certain guys you can count on and I also know you make a great shot and it hits the post and goes one way, and you make a great shot and it goes the other way, it's a big difference."

Evidence is in the quotes and the HFboards posts referred to previously, basic search function will get you the required info you ask for.

Conte and Lamoriello have over 75 years combined in hockey at the elite level.

Back to the Brodeur example. Issue was that the Devils enjoyed low SOGs against when Brodeur was not confined by the trapezoid but allowd to roam. Suddenly Conte's and Lamoriello's view of the past - history, changed because now the data foretold the future. The edge Brodeur'mobility brought would be neutralized. My point.

Hence the misdirect comment.
Um, basically everything Conte said went against the idea of statistical analysis. His area of expertise is scouting, it makes sense. But nothing he said there supported that he's misdirecting anything. He clearly isn't a fan of statistics.

As far as Brodeur goes, is that seriously supposed to be an example of their belief in analytics? Do you understand why the trapezoid was brought in? This isn't breaking any ground here, it was complete common sense that they opposed it. What data is involved? Yes, Brodeur's puck handling was a huge asset, especially in a dump and chase era, and it was hindered by the trapezoid(the reason it was introduced in the first place). That's not some team looking at the data and coming to a conclusion, like I said, it's common sense.

And, if you're going to make all these claims, sorry, I'm not going to go searching for the history forum. It's especially telling when you won't actually bring up a source that ties the Devils management to analytics-based thinking. The onus is on you for this one. Show this proof and you'll have put me in my place, but like the Brodeur example, I think you're really stretching to make this argument come together.

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06-20-2014, 10:06 AM
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Oh Well......

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibsons Finest View Post
Um, basically everything Conte said went against the idea of statistical analysis. His area of expertise is scouting, it makes sense. But nothing he said there supported that he's misdirecting anything. He clearly isn't a fan of statistics.

As far as Brodeur goes, is that seriously supposed to be an example of their belief in analytics? Do you understand why the trapezoid was brought in? This isn't breaking any ground here, it was complete common sense that they opposed it. What data is involved? Yes, Brodeur's puck handling was a huge asset, especially in a dump and chase era, and it was hindered by the trapezoid(the reason it was introduced in the first place). That's not some team looking at the data and coming to a conclusion, like I said, it's common sense.

And, if you're going to make all these claims, sorry, I'm not going to go searching for the history forum. It's especially telling when you won't actually bring up a source that ties the Devils management to analytics-based thinking. The onus is on you for this one. Show this proof and you'll have put me in my place, but like the Brodeur example, I think you're really stretching to make this argument come together.
Oh well..... . Conte's point is that analytics confirm what he or the scouts observed,but they do not predict what will happen in the future. In the Brodeur example analytics were used to predict not confirm which is why the Devils misdirected - they used the analytics - Corsi, etc to predict what would happen - the advantage Brodeur offered would be neutralized. Common sense based on analytics, just as the "old" data was common sense before formal definitions of analytics.

As for knowing why the trapezoid was introduced, yes. Closing in on 60 years in youth hockey, so I can appreciate the "fads" and nuances, etc.

Just gave you and others some direction for further research and edification. That you do not choose to do the research work is fine. Some one else may and will reap the resulting benefits.

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06-20-2014, 05:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Oh well..... . Conte's point is that analytics confirm what he or the scouts observed,but they do not predict what will happen in the future. In the Brodeur example analytics were used to predict not confirm which is why the Devils misdirected - they used the analytics - Corsi, etc to predict what would happen - the advantage Brodeur offered would be neutralized. Common sense based on analytics, just as the "old" data was common sense before formal definitions of analytics.

As for knowing why the trapezoid was introduced, yes. Closing in on 60 years in youth hockey, so I can appreciate the "fads" and nuances, etc.

Just gave you and others some direction for further research and edification. That you do not choose to do the research work is fine. Some one else may and will reap the resulting benefits.
Lol, so of course, you can't back anything up. No, they didn't use corsi to predict the trapezoid would diminish the advantage Brodeur gave them with their puck handling, they used common freaking sense. Hell, there's next to no way they could use corsi to do such a thing, as corsi gives no context. No, sorry, they just happen to have brains. The reason I asked if you knew why it was brought in is because, duh, that's why Lou and Conte opposed it. It was brought in to neutralize puck-moving goaltenders who slowed the game down. It's literally right in the motive, no corsi needed.

And no, you didn't give anyone direction for research. It's a cop out because you know you're wrong and can't really back up your claims, as evidenced by your attempt to tie corsi to something a 10 year old could realize on their own(Brodeur-trapezoid). Come back when you actually post something of substance instead of putting the onus on others. It's not my fault you're either too lazy to do your own work or too stubborn to admit you have no clue what you're talking about.

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06-20-2014, 08:27 PM
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LA and Chicago are both huge on it and they've won four of the last five cups. I think it's safe to say advanced stats and analytics are here to stay and of ever increasing importance in today's NHL.

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