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Justin Schultz's contract

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Old
08-02-2014, 03:36 PM
  #576
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Originally Posted by Up the Irons View Post
its a gamble they took, but they kind of win both ways. If Subban hadn't of worked out, then they'l look smart. He did work out, it costs them more, but they know they have a Norris trophy winning Dman with a superstar persona.
And it only cost them 2.75M off their cap every year for the next decade. They paid handsomely to play it safe. That 2.75M would likely be a big help when MaxPac's or Galchenyuk's contract are up for renewal.

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and Myers had proven more, at the time, than anything Schultz has to this point. Schultz simply hasn't proven jack s--t to warrant a cent more than 4.5 x 5. About the only thing he's shown is he's probably a decent point producer, and probably not a top pairing D.
You are still using numbers signed under lower caps as a ballpark and that is wrong. Just like people couldn't point to Tavares' 5.5M extension when Bolland re-signed this year, we can't use 5.5M signed a few years ago for Myers as a comparable for Schultz now either. 5-5.5 is what it would take to get Schultz signed long term at this point(just guessing). In 2 years we might still be able to get him for that number. But as a UFA with a much bigger cap, maybe 6.5-7 is what it would take. Is that a risk we should take? Habs did and it didn't work out so well for them

The cap is what it is right now. The cap WILL be going up over the next few years. Our options are signing Schultz for little now, and then in all likelihood signing him for massive increase in two years(when he's UFA). Or signing him to an overpayment now, that could be a steal down the road in years 4-7/8. My vote is the second option.

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08-02-2014, 04:43 PM
  #577
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You really think Schultz is going to top out as a bottom pairing PP specialist like MAB or something? I really don't see that as a reasonable future at all. I guess we'll just have to disagree. He's better than that now imo.

If MacT thinks like you and that there is a better chance that Schultz ends up a MAB clone than a top pairing puck moving D, then he's better off trading him right now, while he still has good value around the league. But, I don't think many in the Oilers organization would agree with you that Schultz is likely going to top out as a bottom pairing D.
I don't think that's what he'll top out as. I think he'll be better. Although I'm not sure he'll be a true top pairing guy at any point in his career. I think that he'll top out as a good 2nd pairing offensive specialist. But a defensively abysmal puck mover is what he is now. And there is the chance that he doesn't get better. And I think there is a greater chance of that then there is of him becoming a Norris contender like Subban is. I don't think he'll ever be in a position to realistically be demanding any sort of crazy contract like Subban was in the position to request.

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08-02-2014, 04:54 PM
  #578
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I don't think that's what he'll top out as. I think he'll be better. Although I'm not sure he'll be a true top pairing guy at any point in his career. I think that he'll top out as a good 2nd pairing offensive specialist. But a defensively abysmal puck mover is what he is now. And there is the chance that he doesn't get better. And I think there is a greater chance of that then there is of him becoming a Norris contender like Subban is. I don't think he'll ever be in a position to realistically be demanding any sort of crazy contract like Subban was in the position to request.
IMO Justin Schultz is likely another Tom Gilbert. Came out of college ready to play and didn't progress much after that. I think what you see is what you get with Schultz, he may improve a bit but were not talking about a 19 year old kid here. MacT should be fired if he gives him a long term deal at anything more then 4.5M.

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08-02-2014, 05:21 PM
  #579
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
I don't think that's what he'll top out as. I think he'll be better. Although I'm not sure he'll be a true top pairing guy at any point in his career. I think that he'll top out as a good 2nd pairing offensive specialist. But a defensively abysmal puck mover is what he is now. And there is the chance that he doesn't get better. And I think there is a greater chance of that then there is of him becoming a Norris contender like Subban is. I don't think he'll ever be in a position to realistically be demanding any sort of crazy contract like Subban was in the position to request.
I understand your point. But we have to remember that no one thought Subban was going to be that guy either. Surprises do happen and the Oilers haven't had one in a long time.

Here is why I think Schultz will earn a huge raise if we did a bridge deal. Schultz is the only offensive D on the team and will be seeing most of the PP time with Hall, RNH, Eberle, and Yakupov/Perron. The PP will be run by a more proven PP coach in Ramsay and should rebound back into the top 10, from the 21st place suckfest from last season. He will be entering his 3rd season in the NHL and is approaching his prime D years. The player I saw in the AHL and NHL as a rookie has sky high potential. I'm willing to bet that he'll end up closer to that than he will the guy we saw struggle to understand Eakins' "system" last year.

That is why I think he's going to end up closer to a #2D than a #4D. That is why I am ok with risking an overpayment in the first few years.

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08-02-2014, 05:30 PM
  #580
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IMO Justin Schultz is likely another Tom Gilbert. Came out of college ready to play and didn't progress much after that. I think what you see is what you get with Schultz, he may improve a bit but were not talking about a 19 year old kid here. MacT should be fired if he gives him a long term deal at anything more then 4.5M.
If he ends up like Gilbert then he's a top 4 D. After a 2 year bridge, as a UFA, with a cap that could be around 75M, what do you think it's going to cost to keep him?

And really? If Mact signs him long term for 5.5, he should be fired? A difference of 1M out of a 69M cap? Risking an overpayment that amounts to 1.45% of the cap to potentially save millions in cap space down the road is a fireworthy offense?

I going to disagree with you there.

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08-02-2014, 07:24 PM
  #581
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
If he ends up like Gilbert then he's a top 4 D. After a 2 year bridge, as a UFA, with a cap that could be around 75M, what do you think it's going to cost to keep him?

And really? If Mact signs him long term for 5.5, he should be fired? A difference of 1M out of a 69M cap? Risking an overpayment that amounts to 1.45% of the cap to potentially save millions in cap space down the road is a fireworthy offense?

I going to disagree with you there.
It's going to be a matter of how much you believe in Schultz.

5.5M for a D-man who's career high is 33 points, who has shown mediocre defensive ability and is already 24 years old to me seems ridiculously stupid.

However, if you're one to believe he's going to be as good as OEL, Yandle, Keith etc. then I understand why you'd want to lock him up.

It's a matter of what a fan believes Schultz can do in the future.

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08-02-2014, 07:34 PM
  #582
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
And it only cost them 2.75M off their cap every year for the next decade. They paid handsomely to play it safe. That 2.75M would likely be a big help when MaxPac's or Galchenyuk's contract are up for renewal.



You are still using numbers signed under lower caps as a ballpark and that is wrong. Just like people couldn't point to Tavares' 5.5M extension when Bolland re-signed this year, we can't use 5.5M signed a few years ago for Myers as a comparable for Schultz now either. 5-5.5 is what it would take to get Schultz signed long term at this point(just guessing). In 2 years we might still be able to get him for that number. But as a UFA with a much bigger cap, maybe 6.5-7 is what it would take. Is that a risk we should take? Habs did and it didn't work out so well for them

The cap is what it is right now. The cap WILL be going up over the next few years. Our options are signing Schultz for little now, and then in all likelihood signing him for massive increase in two years(when he's UFA). Or signing him to an overpayment now, that could be a steal down the road in years 4-7/8. My vote is the second option.
which is a solid option, to be sure. term x 4 is great. 4.5 is ok. and 5.0 is a bit much, but you are right, it could be worth it down the road.

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08-02-2014, 08:03 PM
  #583
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I'd max out his term and give him up to $6 million to do so. We have far from seen the best that this kid has to offer. Starting the season with the same system and with a guy that might understand offensive hockey and a PP in Ramsey should do wonders for him.

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08-02-2014, 08:41 PM
  #584
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
It's going to be a matter of how much you believe in Schultz.

5.5M for a D-man who's career high is 33 points, who has shown mediocre defensive ability and is already 24 years old to me seems ridiculously stupid.

However, if you're one to believe he's going to be as good as OEL, Yandle, Keith etc. then I understand why you'd want to lock him up.

It's a matter of what a fan believes Schultz can do in the future.
I agree with you in that it's how you view Schultz. I am still really high on him so I'll fully admit my bias in wanting to see him signed long term. I am not sure he'll reach Keith or what OEL will eventually be. But I could see him him becoming a Yandle/Letang/Green type D-men and that level of player is good to have around too.

And you aren't really being fair by saying 33p career high. He's only been in the system for two years and they been under two coaches. The previous year, he broke almost every AHL rookie D record there is and led the Barons in scoring for most of the season. Then he came to the NHL and played at a 46p pace.

If Eakins/Ramsay can't figure out a way to make a PP with Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov and Schultz work, eventually they'll be replaced with people that can. On a long term deal(7-8) years, I would be surprised if Schultz didn't hit 50 points for at least a couple of seasons just because of who he'd be playing with. Even if he's bumped to the 2nd unit for Nurse down the line he's looking at Draisaitl and Perron to work with. I am really confident that he will put up points. And as the cap goes up, point producing D are only going to get more expensive to sign.

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08-02-2014, 08:59 PM
  #585
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
I don't think that's what he'll top out as. I think he'll be better. Although I'm not sure he'll be a true top pairing guy at any point in his career. I think that he'll top out as a good 2nd pairing offensive specialist. But a defensively abysmal puck mover is what he is now. And there is the chance that he doesn't get better. And I think there is a greater chance of that then there is of him becoming a Norris contender like Subban is. I don't think he'll ever be in a position to realistically be demanding any sort of crazy contract like Subban was in the position to request.
even if Schultz is not a top pairing guy he's still worth 4.5 million a year. Due to cap inflation it would be a lot less than what Gilbert's deal was too

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08-02-2014, 09:07 PM
  #586
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I'd way rather pay Del Zotto 3M over 5 years to bring a similar skill set as Schultz. Then pay Schultz a ridiculous 5.5M for the next 5-7 years. Both are the same age except Del Zotto has proven more.

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08-02-2014, 09:30 PM
  #587
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I'd way rather pay Del Zotto 3M over 5 years to bring a similar skill set as Schultz. Then pay Schultz a ridiculous 5.5M for the next 5-7 years. Both are the same age except Del Zotto has proven more.
I'm not a fan of Del Zotto. He's a LHD for starters, and that should be enough to rule him out since we are full to the brim with LHD.

Schultz plays on a worse team. He's got almost twice as much points as the next defenseman after him.

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08-02-2014, 10:25 PM
  #588
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I'm not a fan of Del Zotto. He's a LHD for starters, and that should be enough to rule him out since we are full to the brim with LHD.

Schultz plays on a worse team. He's got almost twice as much points as the next defenseman after him.
I would mind pairing DelZotto with Fayne and giving him top pairing PP time. Something like:

Marincin-Petry
Ference-Nikitin
Del Zotto-Fayne
Aulie

Would rather roll with a LHD playing their off side then give Schultz a contract he doesn't deserve. Edmonton fans will run Schultz out of town in less then 2 years if he signed for anything more then 5M IMO. I mean look at whats already happening to RNH, if he doesn't pick up his socks this year fans will be calling for his head at this time next year.

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08-02-2014, 10:43 PM
  #589
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I would mind pairing DelZotto with Fayne and giving him top pairing PP time. Something like:

Marincin-Petry
Ference-Nikitin
Del Zotto-Fayne
Aulie

Would rather roll with a LHD playing their off side then give Schultz a contract he doesn't deserve. Edmonton fans will run Schultz out of town in less then 2 years if he signed for anything more then 5M IMO. I mean look at whats already happening to RNH, if he doesn't pick up his socks this year fans will be calling for his head at this time next year.
That works decently for this season but planning for the future, I don't see how Del Zotto for 5 years helps our team at all. He is not replacing Schultz. He's taking a spot from Nurse, Marincin, or Klefbom. Meanwhile, we have a gaping hole at RHD if we part ways with Schultz, and it's looking like Petry might be gone by next season. At the very least, a responsible GM would make that assumption.

The best place for Nikitin is also on the left. He can play on the right, but dealing with his least comfortable side while having to carry Ference in a top 4 role seems like too much.

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08-02-2014, 10:54 PM
  #590
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I honestly don't think the gap between Del Zotto and Schultz is as big as some think.

Schultz may be marginally better offensively (and even that's arguable seeing how much gravy PP time he gets).. but he's also ****-the-bed bad defensively. Del Zotto has his flaws but I'd say he's better than Schultz in his own end.

For the cost differential I'd choose Del Zotto over Schultz right now.. remains to be seen if Schultz is going to become that player we all think me might/could be.

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08-02-2014, 11:09 PM
  #591
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even if Schultz is not a top pairing guy he's still worth 4.5 million a year. Due to cap inflation it would be a lot less than what Gilbert's deal was too
This thread was started because Bob Stauffer said that Justin Schultz would not take the same deal as Ryan McDonagh. That's a 4.7 million cap hit that he wouldn't take.

Sure I'd sign him long term to 4.5. But that doesn't seem like it's going to cut it.

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08-02-2014, 11:16 PM
  #592
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I'd way rather pay Del Zotto 3M over 5 years to bring a similar skill set as Schultz. Then pay Schultz a ridiculous 5.5M for the next 5-7 years. Both are the same age except Del Zotto has proven more.
There's a reason why Del Zotto wasn't qualified by Nashville and hasn't signed a contract yet.

While I think going big money long term on Schultz isn't necessary now, Del Zotto and him don't belong in the same sentence at this stage of their respective careers.

3M over 5 years.... come on.

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08-02-2014, 11:21 PM
  #593
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This thread was started because Bob Stauffer said that Justin Schultz would not take the same deal as Ryan McDonagh. That's a 4.7 million cap hit that he wouldn't take.

Sure I'd sign him long term to 4.5. But that doesn't seem like it's going to cut it.
We don't know what Bob meant by that exactly, or even if he's got special info on this matter. Maybe money is not the issue. Maybe Schultz really wants a bridge deal to prove himself. Johansen made a public statement about his contract demands and he eventually caved. It wasn't about money that time. It was about the type of contract.

Let's assume it's money though, and that both sides are working on a long term deal. We've had a whole off season to give discussions context. The Gardiner deal delivered a strong comparable. I think that if MacT sticks to his guns we will end up with a McDonaugh type of deal.

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08-02-2014, 11:27 PM
  #594
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It's going to be a matter of how much you believe in Schultz.

5.5M for a D-man who's career high is 33 points, who has shown mediocre defensive ability and is already 24 years old to me seems ridiculously stupid.

However, if you're one to believe he's going to be as good as OEL, Yandle, Keith etc. then I understand why you'd want to lock him up.

It's a matter of what a fan believes Schultz can do in the future.
hahhaha..... he got 33 pts as a career high when he's only played 1.5 NHL seasons get your facts straight bud.

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08-02-2014, 11:28 PM
  #595
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I'd way rather pay Del Zotto 3M over 5 years to bring a similar skill set as Schultz. Then pay Schultz a ridiculous 5.5M for the next 5-7 years. Both are the same age except Del Zotto has proven more.
Are you on crack??? Del Zotto is garbage! If a team like Nashville who develops and scouts good defensemen for their team don't qualify a player like Del Zotto then how do you think he'll play on a team like the oilers?

And i'm sorry but what has Del Zotto proven?!?

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08-02-2014, 11:32 PM
  #596
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There's a reason why Del Zotto wasn't qualified by Nashville and hasn't signed a contract yet.

While I think going big money long term on Schultz isn't necessary now, Del Zotto and him don't belong in the same sentence at this stage of their respective careers.

3M over 5 years.... come on.
Del Zotto has issues sure, but he also isn't looking at 5M+ long term. He also has put up more points then Schultz, is the same age, is more physical, and has a decent first pass. I'd have no problem paying him 3M to play on the bottom pairing. We have no other truly offensive dmen beside Gernat in the system. Heck I'd even trade for Franson if we could and let Schultz walk. The whole point is he isn't worth overpaying. He hasn't proven half of what Hall, and Eberle had when they signed their deals.

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08-03-2014, 12:09 AM
  #597
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Del Zotto has issues sure, but he also isn't looking at 5M+ long term. He also has put up more points then Schultz, is the same age, is more physical, and has a decent first pass. I'd have no problem paying him 3M to play on the bottom pairing. We have no other truly offensive dmen beside Gernat in the system. Heck I'd even trade for Franson if we could and let Schultz walk. The whole point is he isn't worth overpaying. He hasn't proven half of what Hall, and Eberle had when they signed their deals.
No offense, but you come across as someone who just doesn't like Schultz. Del Zotto has 37 points the last two years. Schultz has 60. They aren't' comparable players.

Let him walk? Schultz is an RFA without arbitration rights. He can only demand so much. It's not like only options are long term deal for tonnes of money or nothing.

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08-03-2014, 12:17 AM
  #598
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Del Zotto has issues sure, but he also isn't looking at 5M+ long term. He also has put up more points then Schultz, is the same age, is more physical, and has a decent first pass. I'd have no problem paying him 3M to play on the bottom pairing. We have no other truly offensive dmen beside Gernat in the system. Heck I'd even trade for Franson if we could and let Schultz walk. The whole point is he isn't worth overpaying. He hasn't proven half of what Hall, and Eberle had when they signed their deals.
Stop with the age thing, it's a bogus way to use an argument.
They are the same age but Del Zotto is a 5 year pro while Schultz is a 2 year pro, it makes a huge difference.
One has had 5 years (4.5 to be exact) to prove what he's worth and has regressed since his 2nd year while the other has played one and a half pro seasons and we have yet to see what his trajectory will be, he looked a good deal better later in the year to my eye.

You have no problem paying him $3M to play on the bottom pairing? Sorry but that's delusional and I love how you always throw Franson in there every chance you get, a player who might be the worst defensive Dman in the league and can't skate worth a lick. Now that's a Dman who should play on your bottom pairing.
Schultz is a guy who has played big minutes his first 2 seasons and will continue to get an opportunity to do so, he's their best offensive Dman by a mile and has room to grow defensively.

He has scored at a better rate than Gardiner who just got $4M+ over 5 years so to say that he should get $3M especially considering market inflation is completely unrealistic. I think the Oilers would be lucky if he signed the Gardiner deal to be honest.

I wouldn't go more than 5M long term but I'd be ok with paying a defenseman with his skillset and importance to the team anywhere between $4-$5 long term especially considering the likelihood of a rising cap. It could very well be a bargain in 2-3 years if he becomes a 50 point, defensively passable Dman which isn't an unreasonable projection.

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08-03-2014, 12:18 AM
  #599
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Ask youself this question. Is Schultz better than Gilbert when he gave him that long term deal? Maybe a little better offensively but at that point Gilbert already had a 45 and 33 point season while Schultz hasn't matched that yet. And as much as we ragged on Gibby he was much better in his own end than Schultz. Anything more than 4.5 for long term is stupid. He's nowhere near 5-6 million long term at this point.

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08-03-2014, 12:23 AM
  #600
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Ask youself this question. Is Schultz better than Gilbert when he gave him that long term deal? Maybe a little better offensively but at that point Gilbert already had a 45 and 33 point season while Schultz hasn't matched that yet. And as much as we ragged on Gibby he was much better in his own end than Schultz. Anything more than 4.5 for long term is stupid. He's nowhere near 5-6 million long term at this point.
Gilbert signed that $4 million cap hit when the salary cap was 56 million and he was a year older and had a year more of NHL experience. The contracts aren't comparable anymore.

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