HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Justin Schultz's contract

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
08-02-2014, 11:23 PM
  #601
CupofOil
Visualizing
 
CupofOil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Rock Bottom
Country: United States
Posts: 14,866
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilking83 View Post
Ask youself this question. Is Schultz better than Gilbert when he gave him that long term deal? Maybe a little better offensively but at that point Gilbert already had a 45 and 33 point season while Schultz hasn't matched that yet. And as much as we ragged on Gibby he was much better in his own end than Schultz. Anything more than 4.5 for long term is stupid. He's nowhere near 5-6 million long term at this point.
Gilbert's 45 point season was a fluke and everybody knew it. He racked up a bunch of lucky assists that season which inflated his point totals. Schultz has a much higher end offensive skillset, it's pretty obvious when you watch the two players play. Schultz also had 27 points in 48 games so it's unfair to list 33 points as his career high when looking at context.
Gilbert was more steady defensively though so i'll give you that but the market is a lot different than it was back then so you can't compare the two.

CupofOil is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 01:44 AM
  #602
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,356
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
No offense, but you come across as someone who just doesn't like Schultz. Del Zotto has 37 points the last two years. Schultz has 60. They aren't' comparable players.

Let him walk? Schultz is an RFA without arbitration rights. He can only demand so much. It's not like only options are long term deal for tonnes of money or nothing.
Look at Del Zotto's first two years in the league. I don't mind Schultz but guys are suggesting signing him at 5.5-6M long term which IMO is insane. Schultz should be getting 3M on a 2 year deal or 4-4.5M on a 4-6 year deal. Anything above 5 and were getting bent over by his agent.

raab is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 01:48 AM
  #603
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,356
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Stop with the age thing, it's a bogus way to use an argument.
They are the same age but Del Zotto is a 5 year pro while Schultz is a 2 year pro, it makes a huge difference.
One has had 5 years (4.5 to be exact) to prove what he's worth and has regressed since his 2nd year while the other has played one and a half pro seasons and we have yet to see what his trajectory will be, he looked a good deal better later in the year to my eye.

You have no problem paying him $3M to play on the bottom pairing? Sorry but that's delusional and I love how you always throw Franson in there every chance you get, a player who might be the worst defensive Dman in the league and can't skate worth a lick. Now that's a Dman who should play on your bottom pairing.
Schultz is a guy who has played big minutes his first 2 seasons and will continue to get an opportunity to do so, he's their best offensive Dman by a mile and has room to grow defensively.

He has scored at a better rate than Gardiner who just got $4M+ over 5 years so to say that he should get $3M especially considering market inflation is completely unrealistic. I think the Oilers would be lucky if he signed the Gardiner deal to be honest.

I wouldn't go more than 5M long term but I'd be ok with paying a defenseman with his skillset and importance to the team anywhere between $4-$5 long term especially considering the likelihood of a rising cap. It could very well be a bargain in 2-3 years if he becomes a 50 point, defensively passable Dman which isn't an unreasonable projection.
So are you saying the NYR's were smart in not handing Del Zotto a long term 5M+ deal after his 41 point 2nd season? And its been rumored that Schultz already turned down 4.7M long term. If he was around 4.5 or less I'd be fine with it. But it's rumored he wants over 5 to sign long term and its just not worth it for the org.

raab is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 05:40 AM
  #604
Gambl0r83
Registered User
 
Gambl0r83's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 246
vCash: 500
Subban signs 72M deal, wonder what Justin is thinking right now

Gambl0r83 is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 07:16 AM
  #605
Fourier
Registered User
 
Fourier's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Waterloo Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,658
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
This thread was started because Bob Stauffer said that Justin Schultz would not take the same deal as Ryan McDonagh. That's a 4.7 million cap hit that he wouldn't take.

Sure I'd sign him long term to 4.5. But that doesn't seem like it's going to cut it.
And this is really the heart of the matter. People look at Schultz baulking at the McDonagh deal and say: Does he really think he is as good as McDonagh? But in reality that has absolutely nothing to do with it. The reason he won't simply take this deal is because when you look at the McDonagh deal you realise that for most of it McDonagh will be paid much less than his market value.

Teams can overcome bad deals but if a player significantly short changes himself on a long term deal he cannot easily make up for that mistake. If I am Schultz's agent I want full value for where he is right now if the deal is 1-2 years. But if I am looking at a long term deal I want to know what his value might be in the future. What would my client command as a UFA in 2018-2019 if the cap rises as expected. What would he get in 2016 long term if he signs a bridge today?

In 2013 the internal analysis done by the NHL suggested a $1B growth in revenues in three years. That growth would see the cap at $81M in the 2016-2017 season. This might seem ridiculous or speculative to some but the new $CDN TV deal kicks in this year and with even modest organic growth a $76M cap next year is easily within reach so long as the $CDN does not tank.

Schultz's camp has just seen a guy like Anton Stralman sign a five year $4.5M contract. This is a guy who has bounced around as a bottom pairing defenseman most of his career and has exactly one year with more than 20 points. At a cap of $81M that contract is worth $5.3M. So if I am Justin Schultz's agent I ask the Oilers why my client should sign a long term deal that could well be worse than what Stralman got if the team really does view him as one of their core.

Fourier is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 10:35 AM
  #606
J4M13M
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Saint John NB
Country: Canada
Posts: 108
vCash: 500
Anyone using Justin Schultz's age as an argument against development is basically saying the NCAA route is bad, because a player at 22 should have 2 years of pro development instead of a degree.

I'm a big-time CHL fan, and I'd love it if every high-end player decided to play CHL and be a pro by 20. But I'm not going to criticize a guy for choosing education over a quick payday. The truth is, he's a 24year-old with a lot fewer miles on his body than a guy like Del Zotto. Sothat's a consideration when considering future projections as well.

J4M13M is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 01:05 PM
  #607
shoop
HFBoards Sponsor
 
shoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,613
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by J4M13M View Post
Anyone using Justin Schultz's age as an argument against development is basically saying the NCAA route is bad, because a player at 22 should have 2 years of pro development instead of a degree.

I'm a big-time CHL fan, and I'd love it if every high-end player decided to play CHL and be a pro by 20. But I'm not going to criticize a guy for choosing education over a quick payday. The truth is, he's a 24year-old with a lot fewer miles on his body than a guy like Del Zotto. Sothat's a consideration when considering future projections as well.
Absolutely this!

To choose education is the right choice for the vast majority of players. Showed a maturity in his decision making.

It's up to management if they want to invest now or sign him for a year and gamble on a big year. No bridge deal seems likely now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gambl0r83 View Post
Subban signs 72M deal, wonder what Justin is thinking right now
73M?

shoop is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 01:46 PM
  #608
Aerchon
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,984
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Gilbert's 45 point season was a fluke and everybody knew it. He racked up a bunch of lucky assists that season which inflated his point totals. Schultz has a much higher end offensive skillset, it's pretty obvious when you watch the two players play. Schultz also had 27 points in 48 games so it's unfair to list 33 points as his career high when looking at context.
Gilbert was more steady defensively though so i'll give you that but the market is a lot different than it was back then so you can't compare the two.
I absolutely HATE Tom Gilbert but I still can not agree with this. Gilberts best season wasn't a fluke. Maybe some of his points were but he played well in both ends of the ice that year and looked poised to continue his development.

Gilbert overall besides his one good year, was not, and is not, better defensively than Schultz. Both are terrible but I have a lot more confidence that Schultz can improve his game than Gilbert did.

When Gilbert got his contract, just like Horcoff, he then obviously just mailed in his effort. Both those two, clearly and obviously, came into the following season after getting their pay day, and played horrendous. Injury might have been part of the reason for Horcoff but any which way they were both a shell of themselves after getting paid.

This is the reason I both fear and accept big long term contracts. Fear, because after getting paid big bucks a player can give up. Accept, because there is no way, in my opinion, you can tell who is going to play hard after they get a big pay day and who will not. Almost all pro athletes live for the competition and success that can go with it. So I imagine it is pretty tough to project if one is going to suck after getting paid.

The only thing that is very important is that any contract we sign Schultz to does not have a no trade/no move clause. So that if he does "give up" after getting paid we can at least trade him for something.

Aerchon is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 02:02 PM
  #609
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,356
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by J4M13M View Post
Anyone using Justin Schultz's age as an argument against development is basically saying the NCAA route is bad, because a player at 22 should have 2 years of pro development instead of a degree.

I'm a big-time CHL fan, and I'd love it if every high-end player decided to play CHL and be a pro by 20. But I'm not going to criticize a guy for choosing education over a quick payday. The truth is, he's a 24year-old with a lot fewer miles on his body than a guy like Del Zotto. Sothat's a consideration when considering future projections as well.
I'm not saying his age is a bad thing, but how many guys come out of the NCAA and continue to develop into all stars after the age of 24? Can probably count the number on one hand.

raab is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 02:50 PM
  #610
s7ark
Moderator
TheWorstEver
 
s7ark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Country: Canada
Posts: 23,981
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
I'm not saying his age is a bad thing, but how many guys come out of the NCAA and continue to develop into all stars after the age of 24? Can probably count the number on one hand.
Keith would be an example. 32 point in his 24yo seasons. 31 in his 23yo one. Then, at 25, 44p and at 26, 69p

24 is young for a D. NHL D men usually don't really hit their stride until 25-27. Sure there are exceptions like Doughty, Subban and AP. But in general D develop later than forwards.

s7ark is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 03:36 PM
  #611
Copperhead
Registered User
 
Copperhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,777
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerchon View Post
I absolutely HATE Tom Gilbert but I still can not agree with this. Gilberts best season wasn't a fluke. Maybe some of his points were but he played well in both ends of the ice that year and looked poised to continue his development.

Gilbert overall besides his one good year, was not, and is not, better defensively than Schultz. Both are terrible but I have a lot more confidence that Schultz can improve his game than Gilbert did.

When Gilbert got his contract, just like Horcoff, he then obviously just mailed in his effort. Both those two, clearly and obviously, came into the following season after getting their pay day, and played horrendous. Injury might have been part of the reason for Horcoff but any which way they were both a shell of themselves after getting paid.

This is the reason I both fear and accept big long term contracts. Fear, because after getting paid big bucks a player can give up. Accept, because there is no way, in my opinion, you can tell who is going to play hard after they get a big pay day and who will not. Almost all pro athletes live for the competition and success that can go with it. So I imagine it is pretty tough to project if one is going to suck after getting paid.

The only thing that is very important is that any contract we sign Schultz to does not have a no trade/no move clause. So that if he does "give up" after getting paid we can at least trade him for something.
You definitely have to know the player before committing long term. If you feel the player is going to give up after making it big then you can't commit.

That said I think it's pretty ridiculous to compare Horcoff and Gilbert the way you have. Horcoff's struggles were clearly related to his shoulder surgery and frankly signing him to a monster deal before knowing how he would rebound was management's mistake. As long as he was wearing the Oilers sweater I don't think anyone can complain about his effort level.

Furthermore Horcoff had 2 excellent seasons and 1 very solid season leading up to his payday.

I would also like to point out that Tom Gilbert's best season came the year after he signed his deal.

Copperhead is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 03:48 PM
  #612
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,356
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
Keith would be an example. 32 point in his 24yo seasons. 31 in his 23yo one. Then, at 25, 44p and at 26, 69p

24 is young for a D. NHL D men usually don't really hit their stride until 25-27. Sure there are exceptions like Doughty, Subban and AP. But in general D develop later than forwards.
Yea, but I could argue Keith didn't take the normal NCAA route. He only played a year and a half in the NCAA. Also it could be argued that he never looked half as lost as Schultz in the defensive zone. In Keiths 24 year old season he also was tied for top 5 in the league in +/- with a +30. The only other player close to that on the team was Sharp with +23. He more then doubled the rest of the team which should tell you something. I don't see Schultz transforming his game that much this year that he's anywhere near as good defensively as Keith was/is.

raab is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 04:09 PM
  #613
supert
Registered User
 
supert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Halifax
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,499
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
In a round about way he did. He came here because he was offered a roster spot and PP time with the big 3 hoping that it'd up his stock for his next contract. It's funny because if he had stayed with the Ducks he probably would have been better off now.
No he wasn't . He himself said he was not offered a roster spot , he had to earn it . Why do people post crap as fact when it is not true ?

supert is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 04:13 PM
  #614
supert
Registered User
 
supert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Halifax
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,499
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Yea, but I could argue Keith didn't take the normal NCAA route. He only played a year and a half in the NCAA. Also it could be argued that he never looked half as lost as Schultz in the defensive zone. In Keiths 24 year old season he also was tied for top 5 in the league in +/- with a +30. The only other player close to that on the team was Sharp with +23. He more then doubled the rest of the team which should tell you something. I don't see Schultz transforming his game that much this year that he's anywhere near as good defensively as Keith was/is.
And anyone can argue that Keith would have been just as lost if Eakin coached him .

supert is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 04:35 PM
  #615
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,356
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by supert View Post
And anyone can argue that Keith would have been just as lost if Eakin coached him .
Justin needs a GPS just to find out where his own zone is. He needed it with two different coaches so I don't see your point. He's got to have some of the lowest defensive IQ I've ever seen.

raab is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 04:52 PM
  #616
Aerchon
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,984
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Copperhead View Post
You definitely have to know the player before committing long term. If you feel the player is going to give up after making it big then you can't commit.

That said I think it's pretty ridiculous to compare Horcoff and Gilbert the way you have. Horcoff's struggles were clearly related to his shoulder surgery and frankly signing him to a monster deal before knowing how he would rebound was management's mistake. As long as he was wearing the Oilers sweater I don't think anyone can complain about his effort level.

Furthermore Horcoff had 2 excellent seasons and 1 very solid season leading up to his payday.

I would also like to point out that Tom Gilbert's best season came the year after he signed his deal.
Hmmmmmmm. Horcoff seemed to be trying but his complete ineptness to me said he had completely checked out. Skating hard but to the
Completely the wrong area of the ice just doesn't cut it for me.

But yes Horcoff had a much better lead up and as I said injury plays into it.

Aerchon is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 05:24 PM
  #617
armandh01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,087
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Justin needs a GPS just to find out where his own zone is. He needed it with two different coaches so I don't see your point. He's got to have some of the lowest defensive IQ I've ever seen.
3 because I don't recall him being very good in the AHL either. Defensively that is

armandh01 is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 05:28 PM
  #618
Cloned
Dial M for Michelle
 
Cloned's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 22,643
vCash: 500
Dangle Schultz in front of Pittsburgh and see if they bite.

Schultz + Petry + Lander/2nd for Letang + Sutter.

Sign a Tallinder or Diaz.

Hall/RNH/Eberle
Perron/Sutter/Yakupov
Pouliot/Draisaitl/Purcell
Hendricks/Gordon/Gazdic

Nikitin/Letang
Marincin/Fayne
Ference/Diaz

__________________

Sig AND X-mas avatar courtesy of The Nemesis

"Pull yourself together!" - Solid Snake to Otacon, multiple times in the series
Cloned is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 05:50 PM
  #619
oilz89
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 609
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Yea, but I could argue Keith didn't take the normal NCAA route. He only played a year and a half in the NCAA. Also it could be argued that he never looked half as lost as Schultz in the defensive zone. In Keiths 24 year old season he also was tied for top 5 in the league in +/- with a +30. The only other player close to that on the team was Sharp with +23. He more then doubled the rest of the team which should tell you something. I don't see Schultz transforming his game that much this year that he's anywhere near as good defensively as Keith was/is.
Man he's 24. That is a young age for a dman. Dmen don't develop like forwards. It takes 2-3 NHL seasons for a dman to figure out what he will excel at in the NHL and what his weaknesses will be in the NHL. Schultz hasn't even played 2 NHL seasons so how can you say he will be terrible defensively right now? He has been weak defensively so far but we don't know how he'll be in 2 years and we also have a good assistant coach who excels with defensemen

oilz89 is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 05:51 PM
  #620
oilz89
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 609
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Justin needs a GPS just to find out where his own zone is. He needed it with two different coaches so I don't see your point. He's got to have some of the lowest defensive IQ I've ever seen.
All of those head coaches and assistant coaches except Krueger have been and are beyond garbage

oilz89 is online now  
Old
08-03-2014, 08:13 PM
  #621
Pablo Aimar
MBA
 
Pablo Aimar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 957
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gambl0r83 View Post
Subban signs 72M deal, wonder what Justin is thinking right now
"I am not half the player Subban is but maybe I can still get 36M."

Pablo Aimar is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 09:20 PM
  #622
DHins
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 4,170
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gambl0r83 View Post
Subban signs 72M deal, wonder what Justin is thinking right now
That ill get paid if I win a norris

DHins is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 10:59 PM
  #623
Oilfan2
Oil the way..
 
Oilfan2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,687
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Justin needs a GPS just to find out where his own zone is. He needed it with two different coaches so I don't see your point. He's got to have some of the lowest defensive IQ I've ever seen.
You obviously don't watch much hockey..or you have no idea what you're looking at..

Oilfan2 is offline  
Old
08-03-2014, 11:25 PM
  #624
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,356
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilfan2 View Post
You obviously don't watch much hockey..or you have no idea what you're looking at..
I watched enough to see J Schultz missing assignments left and right. He's getting better but he's not even close to guys like Keith and Mcdonagh.

raab is online now  
Old
08-13-2014, 10:27 PM
  #625
KeziaTML
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Calgary, AB
Posts: 1,479
vCash: 500
Any updates on Schultz?

KeziaTML is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:13 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.