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Justin Williams: The Conn Smythe winner least likely to get into the HHOF?

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06-15-2014, 01:12 PM
  #26
begbeee
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Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
If Williams gets two more cups and one more Smythe (while being a key contributor to the other cup) I could see someone making a case. The thing is, how rare it is for players of Williams caliber to get two Smythe's?

Who is the 2x Smythe winner that compares to Williams?
The closest case is certainly Bernie Parent.

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06-15-2014, 01:18 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by begbeee View Post
The closest case is certainly Bernie Parent.
And even in Parent's case he at least supplemented his dominant playoff performances with a two-year regular-season goaltending peak that really only Hasek can match.

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06-15-2014, 01:32 PM
  #28
TAnnala
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Originally Posted by begbeee View Post
The closest case is certainly Bernie Parent.
But the difference between Parent and Williams in regular season is monumental. Nobody would ever mistake Williams as one of the best players in the world. For two years, Parent was in the upper echelon of NHL players.

If Parent is the closest, it really tells the story when you put these two on the line.

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06-15-2014, 01:35 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
But the difference between Parent and Williams in regular season is monumental. Nobody would ever mistake Williams as one of the best players in the world. For two years, Parent was in the upper echelon of NHL players.

If Parent is the closest, it really tells the story when you put these two on the line.
Yeah but Williams is still to claim two Conn Smyhte's, something that i would not bet any money on happening. Maybe a dollar so i would become a millionaire if it would happen.

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06-15-2014, 01:36 PM
  #30
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You know when other four are the best two forwards ever, the best defensman ever and probably the best goalie ever, we have not really other option than Parent

Williams playoff considering era is impressive. No doubt about it. His regular seasons are the issues. He is just decent TOP6 forward. That's the reason why I see a lot of Claude L. in him.

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06-15-2014, 01:43 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Darth Yoda View Post
Yeah but Williams is still to claim two Conn Smyhte's, something that i would not bet any money on happening. Maybe a dollar so i would become a millionaire if it would happen.
True. Williams is not going to take 2nd Conn Smythe. If he does, we will revisit this conversation. But until that happens, there is no chance for him to be in the hall. Cam Ward and J.S. are the, in my mind, the two more unlikely candidates.

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Originally Posted by begbeee View Post
You know when other four are the best two forwards ever, the best defensman ever and probably the best goalie ever, we have not really other option than Parent

Williams playoff considering era is impressive. No doubt about it. His regular seasons are the issues. He is just decent TOP6 forward. That's the reason why I see a lot of Claude L. in him.
Yeah, can't really compare him to any of those guys. Claude is a good example. Although, I think C. Lemieux was better player than Williams. Similar offensive player, but Claude had that pest thing going on for him. Even if I hated him for being the way he was, it was still effective.

All in together, I liked the fact that Williams got the Smythe (I would have given it to Kopitar or Doughty but Williams was definitely worthy) cause I think it is nice to see other than super-stars to get some accolades. It still isn't going to change the fact that Williams is a clear cut below Hall of Fame.

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06-15-2014, 02:09 PM
  #32
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You have to be making way too big of a deal out of the captaincy in order to claim that.
...and defensive play, and penalty killing, and being the catalyst for his line, and the 23 points in 23 games.

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Ward's has the 39th best save percentage of any goaltender with at least a 100 games played since the lockout started. That's a pretty "meh" career so far.
why use a 100 game cutoff? The fact that Ward has the 7th-most games since the lockout is a good thing. Out of the 25 goalies with 300+ games since then, he's 19th in sv% despite playing for a porous defensive team.

I agree he's been a lot closer to 15th than 6th over this time but he's an average starter at least. Something that GMs have seemed to deem more valuable than an average first line player, based on salaries.

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Originally Posted by Sentinel View Post
You must really hate Williams. Game 7 scoring record + CS = hardly "riding shotgun."
I call not being the best player on your own line riding shotgun. There are different degrees of shotgun riding, obviously.


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Don't know what Drury were you watching but here in New York he was the opposite of a clutch player.
New York? C'mon.

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06-15-2014, 02:43 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
.

why use a 100 game cutoff? The fact that Ward has the 7th-most games since the lockout is a good thing. Out of the 25 goalies with 300+ games since then, he's 19th in sv% despite playing for a porous defensive team.
A few things. Literally the only thing Wared has going for him is work-load, and that has as much to do with Carolina's general poor organizational depth goaltending-wise as it does with Ward's talent level. He plays a lot of games, but he doesn't play particularly well in them.

Most importantly, save percentage is largely independent of team factors. I consider it primarily an individual statistic and Ward fares very poorly relative to most quality starters around the league when evaluating him on this metric. Literally the only time he's finished top ten in save percentage is 2010-11 when he finished eighth.

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I agree he's been a lot closer to 15th than 6th over this time but he's an average starter at least. Something that GMs have seemed to deem more valuable than an average first line player, based on salaries.
Average to slightly below average. But you can throw him in a lot of games. The only occasion in his career I'd call him a top ten goalie is the aforementioned 2011 season.

Also, I don't know why you would point to salaries. The amount of money devoted to goaltenders is actually one of the more foolish policies of most GM's. There are far more quality goaltenders around than good first-line forwards. This is an unprecedented era in league history in terms of the number of quality goaltending options available. In a cap system it's nothing short of foolhardy to be devoting a massive portion of your cap space to a goalie unless they're a generational guy like Lundqvist.

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06-15-2014, 03:05 PM
  #34
LeBlondeDemon10
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Something said on HNIC the other night. Don't know if its true, but JW is the only CS winner to score more points in the playoffs than he did in the regular season joining...Mario?

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06-15-2014, 03:21 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by JaysCyYoung View Post
Most importantly, save percentage is largely independent of team factors. I consider it primarily an individual statistic
There's just no way so many people can actually still think this...

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06-15-2014, 03:23 PM
  #36
vadim sharifijanov
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btw if we're counting cups, colin fraser also has three since the lockout (though he didn't dress at all this spring).

as for williams, i think the truth is somewhere between 70slord's and TDMM's positions.

and yes, it should be between him and ward. jiggy, hextall, ranford, and timtom all have superstar peaks, albeit brief ones. not the case for williams and ward. don't know enough about crozier to say where he fits.

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06-15-2014, 03:24 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by LeBlondeDemon10 View Post
Something said on HNIC the other night. Don't know if its true, but JW is the only CS winner to score more points in the playoffs than he did in the regular season joining...Mario?
that's completely untrue

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06-15-2014, 03:27 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
There's just no way so many people can actually still think this...
I absolutely do and have still yet in over ten years online seen one compelling argument to the contrary. It's not completely infallible as a metric, but it's pretty damn close as far as evaluating individual performance. It's no coincidence that the generally agreed-upon best goalies are consistently also tops in save percentage.

This is neither the time nor place for that discussion though.

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06-15-2014, 03:44 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
btw if we're counting cups, colin fraser also has three since the lockout (though he didn't dress at all this spring).

as for williams, i think the truth is somewhere between 70slord's and TDMM's positions.

and yes, it should be between him and ward. jiggy, hextall, ranford, and timtom all have superstar peaks, albeit brief ones. not the case for williams and ward. don't know enough about crozier to say where he fits.
Crozier did have that beastly rookie season where he was a 1st AST.

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06-15-2014, 03:51 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by JaysCyYoung View Post
I absolutely do and have still yet in over ten years online seen one compelling argument to the contrary. It's not completely infallible as a metric, but it's pretty damn close as far as evaluating individual performance. It's no coincidence that the generally agreed-upon best goalies are consistently also tops in save percentage.

This is neither the time nor place for that discussion though.
I'm just going to say at the bolded: Chicken or the egg? I think most people are just poor evaluators of talent (or we'd all be scouts, right?) and use averaging statistics, like save pct., as a crutch in place of proper evaluation.

But you're right, this is not the place for this discussion. I'll give you the last word on it if you want it, and let it go for another thread...

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06-15-2014, 03:52 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
that's completely untrue
yeah -- the stat could be only CS players to have higher ppgs in the playoffs than the regular season? (not more points)

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06-15-2014, 04:09 PM
  #42
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How many seasons has Williams spent as a legitimate first line player?

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06-15-2014, 04:19 PM
  #43
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How many seasons has Williams spent as a legitimate first line player?
Probably two: 2005-06 and 2006-07 when Williams was the first-choice right winger for the Hurricanes, finishing second in team scoring in the first season with 76 points and fourth in team scoring in the second season with 67 points.

They were his only 30+ goal campaigns.

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06-15-2014, 04:29 PM
  #44
vadim sharifijanov
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what does legitimate mean? there have been years where he played a first line role due to chemistry with a center or to spread the scoring around or because of injuries or because the team wasn't deep. the 2006 playoffs he was mostly with staal and stillman after cole got injured, i think, though most of his time in carolina was with brind'amour. and he played mostly on kopitar's line until this season. and it was a while back, but i seem to remember him being on philly's first line in the playoffs one year when he was young, but that was just to have a balanced three line attack.

but how legitimate is any of that? i think most see him as a very good second line winger, but not a guy who is a second line winger on a superteam who really should be a first liner on a normal team (i.e., hossa). the kind of player where among guys of his generation the high end is patrick sharp (without the center versatility), the low end is maybe a guy like chris higgins.

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06-15-2014, 04:30 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by JaysCyYoung View Post
Probably two: 2005-06 and 2006-07 when Williams was the first-choice right winger for the Hurricanes, finishing second in team scoring in the first season with 76 points and fourth in team scoring in the second season with 67 points.

They were his only 30+ goal campaigns.
Hm, that's a bit Burrows-ish. He's got a bit better and slightly longer path than Burrows, but I feel it's the same type of calibre player really.

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06-15-2014, 09:47 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by LeBlondeDemon10 View Post
Something said on HNIC the other night. Don't know if its true, but JW is the only CS winner to score more points in the playoffs than he did in the regular season joining...Mario?
Justin Williams (2013-14)
- season: 82 GP, 43 points, .52 P/G
- playoffs: 26 GP, 25 points, .96 P/G

Mario Lemieux (1990-91)
- season: 26 GP, 45 points, 1.73 P/G
- playoffs: 23 GP, 44 points, 1.91 P/G

Claude Lemieux (1994-95)
- season: 45 GP, 19 points, .42 P/G
- playoffs: 20 GP, 16 points, .80 P/G

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06-16-2014, 03:53 AM
  #47
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
that's completely untrue
yes, very untrue, whether we're talking points or points per game.

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06-16-2014, 05:00 AM
  #48
begbeee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the edler View Post
How many seasons has Williams spent as a legitimate first line player?
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaysCyYoung View Post
Probably two: 2005-06 and 2006-07 when Williams was the first-choice right winger for the Hurricanes, finishing second in team scoring in the first season with 76 points and fourth in team scoring in the second season with 67 points.

They were his only 30+ goal campaigns.
I think Williams is legitimate 1st liner. It depends how you define "legitimate". If itīs a narrow definition, you probably have no more than twenty 1st line wingers in a league. If itīs wide definition (I like it more and think GMs are closer to this thinking) you have about 60 1st line wingers (probably a little less).

Just to put it into perspective, Williams post lockout, after developing:
2006 - 2nd in goals, 2nd in points
2007 - 1st in goals, 4th in points
2008 - injured, on pace for 2nd or 3rd in points
2009 - injured, traded
2010 - injured
2011 - 4th in goals, 4th in points
2012 - 2nd in goals, 2nd in points
2013 - 4th in goals, 2nd in points
2014 - 3rd in goals, 3rd in points

As you see he is very essential contributor to his team offense. Not a league star by any means, rather than lower tier 1st line wing. If you have him written as the 2nd liner, he has to been on stacked contender, what Kings certainly are.

Bottom line is (JayCyYoung) that 30+ goals season is very elite - the treshold is hit by like 20-25 players in a year.

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06-16-2014, 05:50 AM
  #49
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He certainly is 1 of the weakest for sure.

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