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Utica Comets AHL Discussion - Part XV

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Old
07-03-2014, 08:14 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by UticaHockey View Post
Actually per Capgeek it the Canucks sign all of the RFAs that they qualified they will be at 50 contracts and will not be able to sign anyone else without cutting someone loose first.
I think you're counting Cederholm and Cassels whose contract will slide and not be counted against the limit.

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07-03-2014, 08:47 PM
  #102
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I think you're counting Cederholm and Cassels whose contract will slide and not be counted against the limit.
Thanks for the clarification.

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07-03-2014, 10:02 PM
  #103
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"Unless he has a spectacular camp, I think Jensen would be best served starting in the AHL anyway." Another poster who sees eye to eye with me on that. I'm lost for words.
IMHO, it's that barring serious roster moves, the only hope the Canucks really have next season of being in contention is if some of the young guys take a big step up and create a 2nd line for us. Jensen's already had a little bit of time in the bigs so he's probably seen as the most likely candidate. Hell, I liked what I saw from him during his stint here. Maybe this summer he's eating his wheaties and comes into camp in the fall raring to go.

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07-03-2014, 10:11 PM
  #104
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IMHO, it's that barring serious roster moves, the only hope the Canucks really have next season of being in contention is if some of the young guys take a big step up and create a 2nd line for us. Jensen's already had a little bit of time in the bigs so he's probably seen as the most likely candidate. Hell, I liked what I saw from him during his stint here. Maybe this summer he's eating his wheaties and comes into camp in the fall raring to go.
We have 13 guys on one-way contracts. There's a pretty good chance the only 'young guy' on the roster is Vey.

Jensen last year was very hit-and-miss. He looked good with Henrik, but he was absolutely ghastly when removed from that line. I don't have a lot of confidence that he can be an answer here. His compete level and three-zone game is are not NHL-calibre.

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07-03-2014, 10:14 PM
  #105
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45 forwards signed isn't quite right. Capgeek shows 29 total forwards either signed already or yet to be signed qualified RFAs. Maybe if you add unsigned Draft choices and development camp invitees the number goes up that high but the NHL only allows teams to have a total of 50 players signed so 45 of them wouldn't be forwards.
These facts are why I told him there wouldn't likely be that number. They could invite that number (unlikely because it's not a tryout camp), but they wouldn't be signed.

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07-03-2014, 10:24 PM
  #106
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Why are we even concerned about how many guys attend camp? The Canucks have their guys signed and most are one way. The Comets have guys signed by Vancouver as well. Over the Summer guys may be moved. Maybe a young prospect or two stays through the preseason with the parent club; Carrado, Jensen, Horvat, or Shinkaruk as examples. I think when the dust clears Horvat will be back in Jrs. and the other three will be in Utica.

That's only what I think. People way beyond me have taken all of those decisions out of my hands as well as all the rest of the opinionated posters, but it is fun to speculate amongst ourselves to see how close we come to being correct.

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07-03-2014, 10:33 PM
  #107
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45 forwards signed isn't quite right. Capgeek shows 29 total forwards either signed already or yet to be signed qualified RFAs. Maybe if you add unsigned Draft choices and development camp invitees the number goes up that high but the NHL only allows teams to have a total of 50 players signed so 45 of them wouldn't be forwards.
i was being facetious

the point being we have too many nhl forwards so the ahl ones will probably start there. like jensen

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07-03-2014, 10:57 PM
  #108
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We have 13 guys on one-way contracts. There's a pretty good chance the only 'young guy' on the roster is Vey.

Jensen last year was very hit-and-miss. He looked good with Henrik, but he was absolutely ghastly when removed from that line. I don't have a lot of confidence that he can be an answer here. His compete level and three-zone game is are not NHL-calibre.
I guess I'm more prepared than you are to give him a mulligan once he dropped down the lines. I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of guys on the team who looked like they knew what they were doing under the Tortsmonster. So many games really were an absolute gong show, especially in their own end (as I'm sure you recall) and I can't really blame a young guy getting his first NHL action in that mess for losing the plot.

However it shakes out, imho 3 of Jensen, Horvat, Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Fox, Vey, Virtanen, McCann and whoever else I'm forgetting right now need to stick at the NHL level and be legitimate rising stars for the Canucks to have any hope in hell of keeping their heads above water in the Pacific next season. I honestly don't care how it works out contractually. Higgins and/or Hansen and/or Burrows getting outplayed? Bye. See ya. I look at Vancouver's and Utica's potential rosters at this point and to me it looks like the Canucks have the players for about 6 3rd or 4th lines. I know it's July (obviously) and there's a lot of work to be done before training camp for either team, but that's just kind of where I am with it.

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07-03-2014, 11:06 PM
  #109
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I guess I'm more prepared than you are to give him a mulligan once he dropped down the lines. I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of guys on the team who looked like they knew what they were doing under the Tortsmonster. So many games really were an absolute gong show, especially in their own end (as I'm sure you recall) and I can't really blame a young guy getting his first NHL action in that mess for losing the plot.
I don't see his compete level or defensive game as being anywhere near NHL calibre.

It wasn't even there at the AHL level for most of last year. Then he had a blip for a month there, 5 good games here ... and when he was taken away from Henrik he looked a step behind at both ends of the ice. His last 10 games were ugly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProstheticConscience
However it shakes out, imho 3 of Jensen, Horvat, Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Fox, Vey, Virtanen, McCann and whoever else I'm forgetting right now need to stick at the NHL level and be legitimate rising stars for the Canucks to have any hope in hell of keeping their heads above water in the Pacific next season. I honestly don't care how it works out contractually. Higgins and/or Hansen and/or Burrows getting outplayed? Bye. See ya. I look at Vancouver's and Utica's potential rosters at this point and to me it looks like the Canucks have the players for about 6 3rd or 4th lines. I know it's July (obviously) and there's a lot of work to be done before training camp for either team, but that's just kind of where I am with it.
Not gonna be how it works.

We're lucky to see one of those guys here.

This team is in full-on win-now mode, we've buried our young goalie behind a veteran, and have left pretty much nothing in the way of roster spots for young forwards. We can squeak 1 in there maybe if he blows the doors off in camp.

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07-03-2014, 11:20 PM
  #110
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At least that means that guys like Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Fox and Jensen get to get some pro seasoning in the AHL and we don't have to rush them, and we can use them for depth when we hit some injuries (and we certainly will).

I want guys ready to absolutely bust out of the AHL before they hit the NHL, similar to the Red Wings (but maybe not to the same extreme extent).

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07-04-2014, 12:03 AM
  #111
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At least that means that guys like Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Fox and Jensen get to get some pro seasoning in the AHL and we don't have to rush them, and we can use them for depth when we hit some injuries (and we certainly will).

I want guys ready to absolutely bust out of the AHL before they hit the NHL, similar to the Red Wings (but maybe not to the same extreme extent).
The method of development you prescribe is the best possible way to assure the greatest chance for success. Rushing a prospect before he is truly ready is like throwing a kid out of the boat into the lake and saying sink or swim. The rare kid just swims. Many nearly drown and have to be rescued, but will gradually try it again and slowly get the hang of it. Others after nearly drowning never learn to swim and fear water for life.

The better procedure is to take swimming lessons and be brought along at your own pace until swimming becomes easy.

Perhaps not the best analogy, but it works for me. I like your thinking.
As I've posted before a guy is ready for the show when fans from other teams keep asking why is this guy still on the farm? I felt that way last season about Strome with Bridgeport and Percy with Toronto just as a couple of examples.. We don't have one of those guys yet.

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07-04-2014, 01:58 AM
  #112
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Yeah, it's looking like even Horvat may not have a spot next year. I think it makes it even more likely that Jensen goes back to the AHL, and he's the closest one to the NHL out of Fox, Gaunce and Shinkaruk I would say.

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07-04-2014, 04:53 AM
  #113
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i dont think the swimmers are 'rare' and the whole point of having youth in your organization is to squeeze out valuable restricted free agency and ELC years when they are at the top of their game

a player that can do this at 19 or 18 has an enormous amount of utility over the ones that have to start at 20, or 21

an argument can be made that starting at 20 optimizes any given year, but the extra value gained in the first two probably outweighs that. if you have a kid that can play in the nhl this year, unless he's stuck behind two hall of famers or you dont give a **** about cap savings, you gotta use him.

detroit gets credit for how they treat players like gustav nyquist but they're getting **** all from him from a cap standpoint before he hits UFA

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07-04-2014, 04:54 AM
  #114
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stuart percy is on the marlies because keeping him away from randy carlyle until he's old enough to tell him to **** off is the safest gameplan

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07-04-2014, 06:18 AM
  #115
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stuart percy is on the marlies because keeping him away from randy carlyle until he's old enough to tell him to **** off is the safest gameplan
Carlyle's a dinosaur of a coach, but I'm not even sure how he would ruin him if he runs the forwards.

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07-04-2014, 06:39 AM
  #116
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i dont think the swimmers are 'rare' and the whole point of having youth in your organization is to squeeze out valuable restricted free agency and ELC years when they are at the top of their game

a player that can do this at 19 or 18 has an enormous amount of utility over the ones that have to start at 20, or 21

an argument can be made that starting at 20 optimizes any given year, but the extra value gained in the first two probably outweighs that. if you have a kid that can play in the nhl this year, unless he's stuck behind two hall of famers or you dont give a **** about cap savings, you gotta use him.

detroit gets credit for how they treat players like gustav nyquist but they're getting **** all from him from a cap standpoint before he hits UFA
I get what you are saying, but I think these kids need to earn their spot. No gifting. They will be best served earning their spots and playing in the minors than rushing along and maybe doing alrightish in the big leagues.

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07-04-2014, 11:40 AM
  #117
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i dont think the swimmers are 'rare' and the whole point of having youth in your organization is to squeeze out valuable restricted free agency and ELC years when they are at the top of their game

a player that can do this at 19 or 18 has an enormous amount of utility over the ones that have to start at 20, or 21

an argument can be made that starting at 20 optimizes any given year, but the extra value gained in the first two probably outweighs that. if you have a kid that can play in the nhl this year, unless he's stuck behind two hall of famers or you dont give a **** about cap savings, you gotta use him.

detroit gets credit for how they treat players like gustav nyquist but they're getting **** all from him from a cap standpoint before he hits UFA
Oh, but the swimmers are rare in comparison to the numbers who hone their talents in the AHL for 2 or 3 seasons and enter the NHL at 21-23 years of age ready to step right into a full time role.

The 19 and 20 year olds in the NHL are usually the can't miss super stars. The Crosby, Kane, Toews, and Stamkos types. You don't really believe the Canucks have one of those do you? Nobody in the hockey world has expressed such claims.

The ones who don't fit that description have spurts of success mired in mistake filled periods of frustration and struggle. Many flounder about and suddenly called busts. This fits Jensen to a tee. He first came in and was impressive. Then (check out these pages for the first half of last season) he became a disappointment to the Vancouver fan base who in large numbers referred to him as a bust. Then he came up and flashed brilliance with Sedin. Then for about 17 games or so he slowly spiraled down, down, down. He revealed an inability to play both ends of the ice and couldn't buy a goal. He was good because he was with Sedin and then blah.

This is not how you want a player to learn his game. Just because he is cheaper than a guy who will never be a star doesn't mean you don't play that guy while the one deemed to have more innate talent gets it together. that's the reason for signing guys to one and two year contracts. Play them while the other guys prepares to step into that position. The room is there and so is the cap space.

Jensen is not really ready! If he is to succeed he must develop his IQ of the game to the NHL level. He must learn to surrender the puck to get the puck, not throw it away in a forced pass when he runs out of personal options (particularly a cross ice pass at the blue line which got a him a stern, on the bench reprimand, next time a couple periods of straight bench time, and the next a demotion to the 4th line where he will never succeed).

He was getting that with O'Reilly in Utica and went on a 20 game tear after a horrendous first half of the season. He continued it with Sedin and then regressed to the old Jensen who can't be successful up there. Another season with O'Reilly and Coach Green (who believed in him when the Vancover bloggers on the Utica thread were ripping him as another of the Canucks' draft busts) will make him a much better fit for the Canucks and who knows what kind of chemistry he may develop with Shink, Gaunce, Fox or whoever else also growing down there on the farm.

Before you say I just want him in Utica, it can be documented on this thread over last season that I have not been a Jensen fan and have often criticized his youthful selfish play. However, he was getting it and becoming a team player. I saw it. Green saw it. Vancouver saw it and took the chance it would continue and brought him up to see if it was fully ingrained,. It was not. Now he needs to master that part of the game and learn the rink has 200 feet, his other major drawback. As the old players used to say fore check, back check, pay check. It's a much proven axiom.

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07-04-2014, 12:32 PM
  #118
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i dont think the swimmers are 'rare' and the whole point of having youth in your organization is to squeeze out valuable restricted free agency and ELC years when they are at the top of their game

a player that can do this at 19 or 18 has an enormous amount of utility over the ones that have to start at 20, or 21

an argument can be made that starting at 20 optimizes any given year, but the extra value gained in the first two probably outweighs that. if you have a kid that can play in the nhl this year, unless he's stuck behind two hall of famers or you dont give a **** about cap savings, you gotta use him.

detroit gets credit for how they treat players like gustav nyquist but they're getting **** all from him from a cap standpoint before he hits UFA
You don't get more usage out of a player by sticking him in the NHL as a teenager.

Guys are UFA at age 27 or after 7 pro seasons, whichever comes first. This is why a guy like Jordan Staal was set to become a UFA at age 25.

If we have, say, Horvat in the NHL for a full season this year, he becomes an UFA a year earlier on the other end of things, when he's in his prime.


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Oh, but the swimmers are rare in comparison to the numbers who hone their talents in the AHL for 2 or 3 seasons and enter the NHL at 21-23 years of age ready to step right into a full time role.

The 19 and 20 year olds in the NHL are usually the can't miss super stars. The Crosby, Kane, Toews, and Stamkos types. You don't really believe the Canucks have one of those do you? Nobody in the hockey world has expressed such claims.
Guys who are in the AHL for 2 seasons or more without establishing themselves as full-time NHLers are usually busts.

Almost every NHL player of any quality (top-9/top-5 guys) either bypasses the AHL entirely or blows through it as a dominant player in <2 years.

That said, I agree completely that Jensen quite obviously needs more seasoning. Hopefully he dominates at the AHL level this year ... if not, though, his odds of making it are pretty slim.

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07-04-2014, 01:42 PM
  #119
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We'll have a good amount of depth in Utica this year. I think one of Zalewski, Lain, Kenins, will be scratched on the opening day of roster if Jensen is in the AHL. The defence looks a bit weak though I think we should bring back Huskins.

Tommernes, Corrado, Andersson, Biega, McEneny, Blain isn't good enough in the AHL. I think we'll have both Weber and Sanguinetti in the NHL so maybe getting a few signings will help.

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07-04-2014, 05:26 PM
  #120
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Oh, but the swimmers are rare in comparison to the numbers who hone their talents in the AHL for 2 or 3 seasons and enter the NHL at 21-23 years of age ready to step right into a full time role.

The 19 and 20 year olds in the NHL are usually the can't miss super stars. The Crosby, Kane, Toews, and Stamkos types. You don't really believe the Canucks have one of those do you? Nobody in the hockey world has expressed such claims.

The ones who don't fit that description have spurts of success mired in mistake filled periods of frustration and struggle. Many flounder about and suddenly called busts. This fits Jensen to a tee. He first came in and was impressive. Then (check out these pages for the first half of last season) he became a disappointment to the Vancouver fan base who in large numbers referred to him as a bust. Then he came up and flashed brilliance with Sedin. Then for about 17 games or so he slowly spiraled down, down, down. He revealed an inability to play both ends of the ice and couldn't buy a goal. He was good because he was with Sedin and then blah.

This is not how you want a player to learn his game. Just because he is cheaper than a guy who will never be a star doesn't mean you don't play that guy while the one deemed to have more innate talent gets it together. that's the reason for signing guys to one and two year contracts. Play them while the other guys prepares to step into that position. The room is there and so is the cap space.

Jensen is not really ready! If he is to succeed he must develop his IQ of the game to the NHL level. He must learn to surrender the puck to get the puck, not throw it away in a forced pass when he runs out of personal options (particularly a cross ice pass at the blue line which got a him a stern, on the bench reprimand, next time a couple periods of straight bench time, and the next a demotion to the 4th line where he will never succeed).

He was getting that with O'Reilly in Utica and went on a 20 game tear after a horrendous first half of the season. He continued it with Sedin and then regressed to the old Jensen who can't be successful up there. Another season with O'Reilly and Coach Green (who believed in him when the Vancover bloggers on the Utica thread were ripping him as another of the Canucks' draft busts) will make him a much better fit for the Canucks and who knows what kind of chemistry he may develop with Shink, Gaunce, Fox or whoever else also growing down there on the farm.

Before you say I just want him in Utica, it can be documented on this thread over last season that I have not been a Jensen fan and have often criticized his youthful selfish play. However, he was getting it and becoming a team player. I saw it. Green saw it. Vancouver saw it and took the chance it would continue and brought him up to see if it was fully ingrained,. It was not. Now he needs to master that part of the game and learn the rink has 200 feet, his other major drawback. As the old players used to say fore check, back check, pay check. It's a much proven axiom.
You make some very solid points about Jensen. If you look at the CDC forums they have separate threads for each of the Canucks prospects. All you have to do is go back to November and December in that thread and you will see a significant number of Canucks fans calling for Jensen to be sent down from the Comets to the ECHL in an attempt to help him find his game and gain confidence. Then when he got hot and clicked well with Sedin in the beginning of his call up the same fans were asking why it took so long for him to be promoted.

Is the real Nick Jensen the player that many thought was a bust and needs to go to the ECHL or the player that shined for two weeks in Vancouver. The real answer is probably somewhere in between which is a streaky player that is still trying to develop consistency and would be better served to spend more time working in the AHL until he is ready.

It looks to me that Vancouver has a number of prospects that are a year or two from being able to step into full time NHL roles. Your management seems to recognize this too with the recent short term contracts they have signed which will fill positions in Vancouver and allow the kids to develop at their own pace.

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07-04-2014, 05:27 PM
  #121
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You don't get more usage out of a player by sticking him in the NHL as a teenager.

Guys are UFA at age 27 or after 7 pro seasons, whichever comes first. This is why a guy like Jordan Staal was set to become a UFA at age 25.

If we have, say, Horvat in the NHL for a full season this year, he becomes an UFA a year earlier on the other end of things, when he's in his prime.
thats all stuff you can control though. regardless of whether or not they make the nhl at 18 or 20, its easy enough for the most part to get a bunch of UFA years chopped off with a good contract

the player that made the nhl earlier though still has two more years of cheaper-than-market service

anyways, im not using this to argue that jensen needs to be in the nhl. hes definitely not ready - but if a guy like shinkaruk is, we really need to consider it. slow cooking isn't good if it doesnt need to be done

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07-04-2014, 05:37 PM
  #122
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thats all stuff you can control though. regardless of whether or not they make the nhl at 18 or 20, its easy enough for the most part to get a bunch of UFA years chopped off with a good contract

the player that made the nhl earlier though still has two more years of cheaper-than-market service

anyways, im not using this to argue that jensen needs to be in the nhl. hes definitely not ready - but if a guy like shinkaruk is, we really need to consider it. slow cooking isn't good if it doesnt need to be done
What makes you sure that Shinkaruk is ready to bypass the AHL and jump straight to the NHL? He is coming off a major injury and was limited to just 18 games his final year of junior.

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07-04-2014, 05:42 PM
  #123
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What makes you sure that Shinkaruk is ready to bypass the AHL and jump straight to the NHL? He is coming off a major injury and was limited to just 18 games his final year of junior.
nothing?

what is it with you and the other utica posters that you need to constantly put words in people's mouth when it comes to discussing prospects or utica? this is not the first time this has happened

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but if a guy like shinkaruk is, we really need to consider it.

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07-04-2014, 06:08 PM
  #124
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nothing?

what is it with you and the other utica posters that you need to constantly put words in people's mouth when it comes to discussing prospects or utica? this is not the first time this has happened
Okay I have to admit that I missed the "if" in that sentence.

I just think in the long run you will not regret taking a conservative approach when developing prospects.

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07-04-2014, 06:10 PM
  #125
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i dunno. im more inclined to agree with you when its jr or nhl, but a guy like shinkaruk being ahl eligible in d+2 year is an asset and i really hope they give him a look if he earns it, rather than letting him stew detroit style

similarly, if they drafted nylander, keeping him in the ahl instead of the shl so they can call him up for tryouts is an asset as well

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