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2014 Offseason - Roster Building / Trade Speculation Thread IV

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Old
06-26-2014, 05:51 PM
  #852
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianBoyle View Post
Staal has been a better defenseman than Stralman in his career, but he's still a fairly inconsistent player. He was not good in the final two rounds, while Stralman was consistently good in all four rounds, and he has been consistently providing steady defense for three years, now, throughout the entirety of the regular season and postseason.

The better argument is that they help each other equally. I don't think the Staal-Klein pairing will perform as well as people think. It's a decent pairing, sure, but Staal-Stralman is arguably the best second pairing in the league.
The question is... which is more important to maintain? One of the top 1st pairings in the league or the best 2nd pairing in the league?

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06-26-2014, 05:53 PM
  #853
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
That's a very dangerous move.

I think Brass gets at least 3 years and if he does, he's going for 4.2-4.5.

I pray he signs for 4.0, but I doubt it.
I don't think it's that dangerous, simply because I think Sather is going to bring in one of the following: O'Reilly / Thornton / Spezza. Then Stepan likely becomes our 2C, and with that depth, Brassard becomes expendable with Moore at 4C and Miller's development suggesting he should be close/ready for 3C responsibilities.

But of course, those are a bunch of "what-ifs."

I definitely hear your point and it's valid. I'm just hoping Sather has something up his sleeve to solve all our problems. ^_^

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06-26-2014, 05:58 PM
  #855
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
What kind of sample size are we looking at for the two of them? It can't be that large. McDonagh, by the way, does the without the puck work as well as Girardi and Staal. Chances are that he's doing it waaay too much with Stralman. Before this season, it was his primary focus in general. I happen to think, as a long-term pairing, it is a horrible idea.

And none of that was to say that possession players don't hit or block shots. It also isn't to say that away-from-the-puck (need a better name) players don't move the puck well at all. It's to say that these guys are playing to their strengths.
From the research of a poster on sbnation:

Quote:
Anton Stralman Makes Everyone Better

He may not get credited with that many goals or assists but he is a HUGE reason his teammates are able to produce. The following is a chart of his teammates over the past 3 seasons, ordered by ice time they’ve had with Stralman, and the amount of points their zone adjusted Corsi For % improves when they are on the ice with Stralman. Quietly and steadily, he is a possession God.


by Al Trautwig's Teeth on Jun 13, 2014 | 4:19 PM

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/1...nley-cup-final
So going by the order of the chart, McDonagh has been Stralman's eighth most frequent teammate to share the ice over his Rangers tenure. According to the chart, Stralman has spent more minutes on the ice with McDonagh than he has with Pouliot-Brassard-Zuccarello. During that time, McDonagh experiences a 7.7 boost to his corsi.

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06-26-2014, 06:00 PM
  #856
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Originally Posted by Zil View Post
I don't think you understand. I like Girardi fine. What I don't like is the role he has been thrust into and the contract he has been given. You can call him a "warrior" all you want, but that doesn't make his game any better. The fact is that he's a very limited defenseman, better suited to the second or third pair. You can present anecdotal evidence about him occasionally making a nice play just as can be done for every player. But that doesn't change the fact that we have data compiled giving us a more accurate read on his overall play.
Girardi is limited? Tell me what Stralman does that makes Girardi limited and Stralman not? Besides pointing to statistics. Tell me what you see from Stralman's game other than the fact that he's an efficient, capable defender who pushes the puck up the ice. It's not like this guy has a well-rounded game. His offensive production is borderline zero. His shooting percentage was below 1% last year. I don't see how you can say Girardi is limited and praise Stralman as this versatile defenseman in the same post.

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If I have the choice between a defenseman like Stralman who allows the Rangers to play with the puck a majority of the time and defenseman like Girardi who allows the opposition to play with the puck more, I am going to pick Stralman every time. I assume you liked all of those good offensive things that McDonagh did this year. If he had a partner like Stralman, McDonagh would've had a chance to do even more of them. That's how puck possession works.
Girardi also plays against top competition. Odds are they will possess the puck more than 2/3 lines, which Stralman is often matched up against. I love McDonagh's game - and I think he is perfectly comfortable and maturing nicely with Girardi as his defense partner. I really don't want a Stralman-McDonagh pairing. Stralman is nice with Staal. I don't think Girardi "allows" the opposition to play with the puck more is a fair characterization of the situation. You can call my post as one citing anecdotal evidence all you want, but you're making sweeping, broad characterizations of a player based on how often the team possesses the puck when he's on the ice. Again, I think it's a valuable statistic, but I don't think it necessarily takes everything into account. So if Girardi is on the ice vs. Crosby and Stralman vs. Sutter, and Stralman possesses the puck more, Stralman must be better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil View Post
IAnd I should note, not only do Stralman and McDonagh aid puck possession. They also are excellent in their own ends. It's very possible to do both. Girardi just doesn't have the skillset for it. Plus he's slow and gets beat a lot, while also not being a strong defender in the neutral zone.
This "skillset" of Stralman's is the same one that generated 1 goal and 12 assists in 81 games this year. Last year he had 3 assists in 48 games. I don't know man, if anything, I think Stralman is the limited defender. He's just an overall capable #4 defenseman, efficient, and doesn't make many mistakes. He's the prototypical second pairing RHD.

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IWho cares? The possession he generated allowed other players to put up points that would not have been possible without his play.
Isn't the puck possession statistic a statistic showing how often your team possessed the puck while you were on the ice? So that doesn't take into account that say, Girardi is on the ice vs. Crosby playing shutdown D with McDonagh, and Stralman gets on the ice with Brassard against Pittsburgh's 2nd or 3rd line?

I don't know. Too many variables for me to make a broad conclusion about a player's performance based on a number.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil View Post
IStralman is excellent whoever you pair him with. I've posted the chart about six or seven times now. Playing with Staal certainly hasn't hurt Stralman's play, but he's very clearly not a product of Staal. Meanwhile, Girardi has been carried by McDonagh and before that Staal.

I'm not blasting Staal, I just think he's our only big trade chip and we'd be wise to deal him. He's going to command a contract at least as big as Girardi's and left handed defensemen are one of the strengths of our farm system. Unless JT Miller takes a miraculous step forward, we don't have a second high quality center to pair with Stepan, nor do we have one coming in the minors.
I don't think Girardi is carried by McDonagh or Staal. I really don't need to make an argument for that, as you believe it, and I don't, and that's really it.

I don't mind dealing Staal and keeping Stralman. I get the whole acquire assets for Staal and keep Stralman is better than keeping Staal and losing Stralman for nothing. My posts were directed at the Girardi hate and Stralman love fest that has ensued since the Stanley Cup Finals.

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06-26-2014, 06:02 PM
  #857
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CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($6.000m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Chris Kreider ($2.600m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Mats Zuccarello ($4.250m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / Derick Brassard ($4.200m) / Danny Kristo ($0.827m)
Daniel Carcillo ($0.850m) / Dominic Moore ($1.600m) / Ryan Carter ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
John Moore ($1.500m) / Anton Stralman ($4.250m)
Conor Allen ($0.925m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,814,375; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $2,285,625




Staal + Miller for Ryan O'Reilly

Sign Ryan Carter for the fourth line

Trade Dorsett for a pick


This way we can bring back everyone except Pouliot and field an ultra-competetive team both this season and going forward.

Having Stepan and Brassard as your 2nd and 3rd centers, rather than 1st and 2nd will make a world of difference IMO.

Ryan O'Reilly is the real deal. He's worth Staal + Miller, easily, and he's worth 6mil per season on a long-term contract.

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Old
06-26-2014, 06:04 PM
  #858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil View Post
From the research of a poster on sbnation:



So going by the order of the chart, McDonagh has been Stralman's eighth most frequent teammate to share the ice over his Rangers tenure. According to the chart, Stralman has spent more minutes on the ice with McDonagh than he has with Pouliot-Brassard-Zuccarello. During that time, McDonagh experiences a 7.7 boost to his corsi.
This is beginning to remind me of baseball with the WAR and what not.

It's all good. You guys can follow those stats and use them to judge players. I agree, any statistical advantage you can get is helpful. I'll look at them from time to time. I know how important it is to possess the puck.

All I'm saying is there are lot of factors to consider here besides a number that indicates puck possession. Girardi at $5.5M is not crippling our cap by any stretch of the imagination. That's what my whole point was.

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Old
06-26-2014, 06:08 PM
  #859
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil View Post
From the research of a poster on sbnation:



So going by the order of the chart, McDonagh has been Stralman's eighth most frequent teammate to share the ice over his Rangers tenure. According to the chart, Stralman has spent more minutes on the ice with McDonagh than he has with Pouliot-Brassard-Zuccarello. During that time, McDonagh experiences a 7.7 boost to his corsi.
All statistics from the Tortorella era need to be thrown out. Now. They have no application here. I'm not interested in it, and no one should be. Beyond that, you have to believe hard in the value of Corsi in order to buy into the value of that chart. I think Corsi is valuable, as far as it goes, but not that valuable.

For last season, Ryan McDonagh played 9.8% of his shifts with Anton Stralman. Nothing about 9.8% of a D's shifts will give me valuable information about the effect his partner has on the quality of his play. It's just not enough. At that level, whether or not the team won the faceoff starts to play a huge role in what the possession numbers will look like.

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06-26-2014, 06:10 PM
  #860
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
This is beginning to remind me of baseball with the WAR and what not.

It's all good. You guys can follow those stats and use them to judge players. I agree, any statistical advantage you can get is helpful. I'll look at them from time to time. I know how important it is to possess the puck.
You can put as much weight into them as you want, but when you try and poke holes in them with conjecture rather than grounded research you're going to run into problems. You can say Girardi's faced tougher competition, but we have numbers measuring how each player has done against each level of opposing player. We have data on how Stralman does against the best of the best and those numbers say he does very, very well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
All I'm saying is there are lot of factors to consider here besides a number that indicates puck possession. Girardi at $5.5M is not crippling our cap by any stretch of the imagination. That's what my whole point was.
If we re-sign Stralman, then we can probably weather Girardi's contract assuming the cap continues to rise. If Girardi's cap hit causes us to lose Stralman that is unacceptable

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06-26-2014, 06:10 PM
  #861
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Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
I read Dreger's Kesler tweet and immediately had a terrible thought that the Rangers would make a surprise splash trade for him.

Never mind the media speculation that him and Alain have a relationship that is irreparable. Never mind that it is being reported that he will only go to Ana or Chi.

He screams out as a typical Sather move. And hell, I'd be downright shocked if the Rangers traded for him and he turned down a team that just went to the SCF and is an extremely appealing US city.
I don't think you know what the word speculation means

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Old
06-26-2014, 06:11 PM
  #862
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Let me ask a serious question.

If you took the top 12 forwards in Corsi, and the top 6 D in Corsi, do you think that team would possess the puck 100% of the time? Or would be about 55-45 or 57-43, with some guys numbers going down unexpectedly? I'd presume the latter. A number can't tell an entire story.

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. - Aaron Levenstein

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06-26-2014, 06:12 PM
  #863
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Originally Posted by Zil View Post
You can put as much weight into them as you want, but when you try and poke holes in them with conjecture rather than grounded research you're going to run into problems. You can say Girardi's faced tougher competition, but we have numbers measuring how each player has done against each level of opposing player. We have data on how Stralman does against the best of the best and those numbers say he does very, very well.
What's the sample?

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06-26-2014, 06:16 PM
  #864
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil View Post
You can put as much weight into them as you want, but when you try and poke holes in them with conjecture rather than grounded research you're going to run into problems. You can say Girardi's faced tougher competition, but we have numbers measuring how each player has done against each level of opposing player. We have data on how Stralman does against the best of the best and those numbers say he does very, very well.
I hope you aren't referring to how they do against other players with good Corsi, because that's just self-reinforcing.

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06-26-2014, 06:17 PM
  #865
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Santorelli would be a great option on the bottom 6, an under the radar player who has shown offensive upside. RH shot, plays center, wing, will be cheap and he's shown some offensive pedigree before, but is injury prone.

Fayne is going to get paid. A lot of people don't notice him, but he is a Mike Sauer type of understated big player that can eat 20 a night. I expect EDM to pony up for him. Should be a player that's a candidate for that surprise big money contract. He's been an NHL player since he turned pro and played really well. Would be a guy that would look great next to Staal, but he'll probably crack $4M and thats too steep for a defensive defenseman that's a solid no 4. He's 27 so he will get term too.

I think the Rangers end up signing Dan Boyle. I'd welcome the move since it adds offense from the backend and finally gives the Rangers a RH PPQB that is legitimately good, can't say I'm someone who looks at his age and starts screaming decline, Dan Boyle shouldn't be expected to play a shutdown role. The Rangers can use Klein with Staal when teams have two no 1 lines, and Staal with Boyle against weaker teams. The guy has been a no 1 defenseman on a perennial contender for years now and I don't think that should be overlooked.

Teams that pay defensive d big contracts will find themselves in cap trouble, Boyle at 4.5 for 2 fills needs, and offers more cap flexibility going forward than Stralman at 4.5.

Other UFAs to consider are Joe Vitale for a RH faceoff/pk role 4th line c/w role. Dustin Penner/Winnik/Bernier to add size and net front presence. Winnik can skate, Penner would be a low cost option... not an everyday contributer, but he's effective. Bernier is French and maybe AV gets more out of him like he did with Pouliot.

Looking at a line up of:

Nash-Stepan-MSL
Kreider-Brassard-Zucc
Hagelin-Miller-Fast
UFA/Moore-Moore/Vitale-Vitale/UFA with UFAs being one of Winnik/Penner/Bernier

McD-G
Staal-Boyle/Klein
Allen-Boyle/Klein

Trade Dorsett and JMoore for assets whether thats picks, prospects or an NHL player upfront.

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Old
06-26-2014, 06:33 PM
  #866
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikos87 View Post
Santorelli would be a great option on the bottom 6, an under the radar player who has shown offensive upside. RH shot, plays center, wing, will be cheap and he's shown some offensive pedigree before, but is injury prone.

Fayne is going to get paid. A lot of people don't notice him, but he is a Mike Sauer type of understated big player that can eat 20 a night. I expect EDM to pony up for him. Should be a player that's a candidate for that surprise big money contract. He's been an NHL player since he turned pro and played really well. Would be a guy that would look great next to Staal, but he'll probably crack $4M and thats too steep for a defensive defenseman that's a solid no 4. He's 27 so he will get term too.

I think the Rangers end up signing Dan Boyle. I'd welcome the move since it adds offense from the backend and finally gives the Rangers a RH PPQB that is legitimately good, can't say I'm someone who looks at his age and starts screaming decline, Dan Boyle shouldn't be expected to play a shutdown role. The Rangers can use Klein with Staal when teams have two no 1 lines, and Staal with Boyle against weaker teams. The guy has been a no 1 defenseman on a perennial contender for years now and I don't think that should be overlooked.

Teams that pay defensive d big contracts will find themselves in cap trouble, Boyle at 4.5 for 2 fills needs, and offers more cap flexibility going forward than Stralman at 4.5.

Other UFAs to consider are Joe Vitale for a RH faceoff/pk role 4th line c/w role. Dustin Penner/Winnik/Bernier to add size and net front presence. Winnik can skate, Penner would be a low cost option... not an everyday contributer, but he's effective. Bernier is French and maybe AV gets more out of him like he did with Pouliot.

Looking at a line up of:

Nash-Stepan-MSL
Kreider-Brassard-Zucc
Hagelin-Miller-Fast
UFA/Moore-Moore/Vitale-Vitale/UFA with UFAs being one of Winnik/Penner/Bernier

McD-G
Staal-Boyle/Klein
Allen-Boyle/Klein

Trade Dorsett and JMoore for assets whether thats picks, prospects or an NHL player upfront.
This.

He's also a trade asset if McIlrath is ready to play as well.

Still want to find out if Allen is able to take Staal's minutes, but who knows if/when that can happen.

I see discussion of Kristo to replace Poo, but what about Haggarty? I know he has no pro experience but he was killer on the PP for RPI

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06-26-2014, 06:36 PM
  #867
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The difference between the best possession teams in the league and the worst are + or - 6-7% from a 50/50 split. Thats not a lot over the course of a game, and certainly not a lot over the course of a season.

I think the Corsi stuff is very useful, but what gets dangerous is when its used as the bible. Because, simply said, you can stack a roster with however many Corsi-friendly players you want and there will still be plenty of need to defend without the puck.

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06-26-2014, 06:51 PM
  #868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikos87 View Post
Santorelli would be a great option on the bottom 6, an under the radar player who has shown offensive upside. RH shot, plays center, wing, will be cheap and he's shown some offensive pedigree before, but is injury prone.

Fayne is going to get paid. A lot of people don't notice him, but he is a Mike Sauer type of understated big player that can eat 20 a night. I expect EDM to pony up for him. Should be a player that's a candidate for that surprise big money contract. He's been an NHL player since he turned pro and played really well. Would be a guy that would look great next to Staal, but he'll probably crack $4M and thats too steep for a defensive defenseman that's a solid no 4. He's 27 so he will get term too.

I think the Rangers end up signing Dan Boyle. I'd welcome the move since it adds offense from the backend and finally gives the Rangers a RH PPQB that is legitimately good, can't say I'm someone who looks at his age and starts screaming decline, Dan Boyle shouldn't be expected to play a shutdown role. The Rangers can use Klein with Staal when teams have two no 1 lines, and Staal with Boyle against weaker teams. The guy has been a no 1 defenseman on a perennial contender for years now and I don't think that should be overlooked.

Teams that pay defensive d big contracts will find themselves in cap trouble, Boyle at 4.5 for 2 fills needs, and offers more cap flexibility going forward than Stralman at 4.5.

Other UFAs to consider are Joe Vitale for a RH faceoff/pk role 4th line c/w role. Dustin Penner/Winnik/Bernier to add size and net front presence. Winnik can skate, Penner would be a low cost option... not an everyday contributer, but he's effective. Bernier is French and maybe AV gets more out of him like he did with Pouliot.

Looking at a line up of:

Nash-Stepan-MSL
Kreider-Brassard-Zucc
Hagelin-Miller-Fast
UFA/Moore-Moore/Vitale-Vitale/UFA with UFAs being one of Winnik/Penner/Bernier

McD-G
Staal-Boyle/Klein
Allen-Boyle/Klein

Trade Dorsett and JMoore for assets whether thats picks, prospects or an NHL player upfront.
There's absolutely no improvement in that roster compared to this past season.

How could we expect to be better or even stay the same with a much weaker roster all around?

And why on earth would you trade John Moore for "assets?"

He's a young swift-skating, cost-controlled and cost-effective d-man. He's also a former first rounder who still has untapped potential on both sides of the puck. He's likely to make less than 2 million per season regardless of the term of his contract.

The ONLY way he gets traded this season is if it's in a larger package to improve another position.

Trading him for "assets" would be ass-backwards.

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06-26-2014, 06:53 PM
  #869
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Just throwing it out there, Iginla? I know he hasn't been talked about at all here mainly because we have 3 rw's but who knows if they lose Pouliot they move Nash to lw and put Iginla on rw. It also screams typical Sather move, getting a big gun past his prime

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06-26-2014, 06:55 PM
  #870
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Originally Posted by Glen Teflon Sather View Post
Just throwing it out there, Iginla? I know he hasn't been talked about at all here mainly because we have 3 rw's but who knows if they lose Pouliot they move Nash to lw and put Iginla on rw. It also screams typical Sather move, getting a big gun past his prime
Nash can't score on the left. not worth it

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06-26-2014, 06:56 PM
  #871
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
What's the sample?
Blue Blooded wrote an entire article about this over at BSB: http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/...ger-defencemen

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
I hope you aren't referring to how they do against other players with good Corsi, because that's just self-reinforcing.
In what way? If you can post strong possession numbers even against opponents who post strong possession numbers that says something. I'll put it another way: Even Klein puts up strong possession numbers when given the extremely sheltered minutes and zone starts he saw in the playoffs. Stralman would likewise put up great numbers in such a scenario. The difference comes when you ramp up the quality of competition and the difficulty of zone starts.

On a side note: You said before that two puck mover types won't do well together (ie McDonagh and Stralman). How do you explain the Kings' top pairing of Doughty and Muzzin? Doughty and McDonagh are extremely similar players, but having Muzzin, another puck mover, for a partner hasn't hurt Doughty at all. And Muzzin is far less of a stay at home guy than Stralman so that should hurt their defense if your ideas about complementary players are correct.

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06-26-2014, 07:00 PM
  #872
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
Let me ask a serious question.

If you took the top 12 forwards in Corsi, and the top 6 D in Corsi, do you think that team would possess the puck 100% of the time?
I don't believe this was a serious question.

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06-26-2014, 07:05 PM
  #873
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You know there's one thing I don't get.. This place alot of time is all about looking to the future. I completely get that next year if we dealt Staal and replaced him with Allen or Moore, the D could possibly be very bad especially if Mcdonagh gets hurt.

However, back to the Staal for ROR.. Staal is also a soon to be UFA.. You can say he will easily get 5M+ on the open market, maybe even 6, which puts him right around where Ryan O Reilly will be.

So even if the Rangers took a step back this year because of their defense, for the FUTURE wouldn't you rather tie up 6M in a #1A center to put with Stepan going forward than 5-6M in a guy who is a great defensemen defensively don't get me wrong, but a 2nd pairing guy because he's behind Ryan Mcdonagh for at least the next 6 years?

something to think about..

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06-26-2014, 07:09 PM
  #874
Inferno
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Originally Posted by jerseyjinx94 View Post
Let me ask a serious question.

If you took the top 12 forwards in Corsi, and the top 6 D in Corsi, do you think that team would possess the puck 100% of the time? Or would be about 55-45 or 57-43, with some guys numbers going down unexpectedly? I'd presume the latter. A number can't tell an entire story.

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. - Aaron Levenstein
That team would look something like this..

Thornton -Kopitar- Hossa
Sharp -Bergeron- Marchand
Riley Smith - Toews - Williams
Saad - Carter - King

Muzzin - Doughty
Keith - Seabrook
Leddy - Vlasic


I had to move some people around to make it fit into your narrative.

I dunno, you tell me, does that look like a strong team? Perhaps an unbeatable team?

Sure does to me.

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06-26-2014, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Lundsanity30 View Post
You know there's one thing I don't get.. This place alot of time is all about looking to the future. I completely get that next year if we dealt Staal and replaced him with Allen or Moore, the D could possibly be very bad especially if Mcdonagh gets hurt.

However, back to the Staal for ROR.. Staal is also a soon to be UFA.. You can say he will easily get 5M+ on the open market, maybe even 6, which puts him right around where Ryan O Reilly will be.

So even if the Rangers took a step back this year because of their defense, for the FUTURE wouldn't you rather tie up 6M in a #1A center to put with Stepan going forward than 5-6M in a guy who is a great defensemen defensively don't get me wrong, but a 2nd pairing guy because he's behind Ryan Mcdonagh for at least the next 6 years?

something to think about..
Im just not at all as high on ROR as a lot of ppl are. I wouldnt make that trade.

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