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HOH Top-60 Wingers Project - Preliminary & General Discussion Thread

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Old
06-29-2014, 08:11 PM
  #76
eddytheeagle20
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anybody with any knowledge of the 20-30s nhl can they spread some light on joliat was he a a result of morenz or was he a driving force in his own right

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06-29-2014, 08:12 PM
  #77
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprague Cleghorn View Post
Do any of you guys have Harry Oliver as a lock? Excellent WCHL career and a so-so NHL career with the Bruins.
Not a lock. Was his WCHL career good enough to consider him though?



I'm reluctant to consider pre-consolidation players who aren't in the HHOF, unless we know of a really good non-hockey related reason why they might have been left out (like Bernie Morris' alleged draft dodging).

From my posts on Duke Keats in the centers project:

1920-21 Big 4 (the predecessor to the WCHL)
1. Duke Keats 29
2. Archie Briden (Keats' LW) 25
3. Barney Stanley 21
4. Harry Oliver 20
5. Rube Brandow 20

1921-22 WCHL
1. Duke Keats 56
2. George Hay (24 yo) 34
3. Joe Simpson (29 yo) 34
4. Ty Arbour (Keat's LW) 33
5. Barney Stanley 31
6. Dick Irvin (30 yo) 27
7. Art Gagne (Keats' RW) 21
7. Charley McVeigh 21

1922-23 WCHL
1. Art Gagne (Keat's RW) 43 in 29 games (1.48 PPG)
2. Duke Keats 37 in 25 games (1.48 PPG)
3. George Hay (25 yo) 36 in 30 games (1.20 PPG)
4. Newsy Lalonde (35 yo) 35
5. Harry Oliver 32
6. Joe Simpson 29
7. Ty Arbour (Keats' LW) 28
8. Bill Cook (28 yo) 25

1923-24 WCHL
1. Bill Cook 40
2. Harry Oliver 34
3. Duke Keats 31
3. George Hay 31
5. Barney Stanley 26
6. Laurie Scott 25
7. Bernie Morris (34 yo) 23
7. Cully Wilson 23
7. Dick Irvin 23

1924-25 WCHL
1. Mickey MacKay 33
1. Harry Oliver 33
3. Duke Keats (29 yo) 32
4. Bill Cook (29 yo) 32 (missed 3 games)
5. Frank Fredrickson (29 yo) 30
6. Frank Boucher (24 yo) 28

1925-26 WCHL
1. Bill Cook 44
2. Dick Irvin 36
3. Corb Denneny (32 yo) 34
4. Art Gagene (Keats' RW) 33
5. George Hay 31
6. Duke Keats 29
7. Harry Oliver 25
8. Frank Fredrickson 24
9. Frank Boucher 22


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Old
06-29-2014, 11:36 PM
  #78
Art of Sedinery
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddytheeagle20 View Post
anybody with any knowledge of the 20-30s nhl can they spread some light on joliat was he a a result of morenz or was he a driving force in his own right
Same question for Bernie Geoffrion and Dickie Moore. Did they play on the same line, and if so how much did Moore benefit from that, and how much did he create on his own?

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06-30-2014, 12:06 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Art of Sedinery View Post
Same question for Bernie Geoffrion and Dickie Moore. Did they play on the same line, and if so how much did Moore benefit from that, and how much did he create on his own?
...or vice versa....? it's not like Geoffrion was a generational talent known for carrying lesser linemates, and Moore did win two scoring titles.

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06-30-2014, 01:48 AM
  #80
ted1971
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I have a few more names of possible interest.
Kevin Stevens: who dominated for around 4 years
Owen Nolan: who never dominated, but was steady throughout His career.
Gary Roberts: who I think was a cross between Stevens & Nolan

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06-30-2014, 01:57 AM
  #81
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What does everyone think of Helmut Balderis & Vyacheslav Starshinov?

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06-30-2014, 02:03 AM
  #82
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Was Corb Denneny a Winger or Center?

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06-30-2014, 02:24 AM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ted1971 View Post
I have a few more names of possible interest.
Kevin Stevens: who dominated for around 4 years
Owen Nolan: who never dominated, but was steady throughout His career.
Gary Roberts: who I think was a cross between Stevens & Nolan
Bottom of the barrel talents in a discussion like this.

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06-30-2014, 03:17 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by kmad View Post
What does everyone think of Helmut Balderis & Vyacheslav Starshinov?
Starshinov was a center - mostly at least.

Balderis should not be too far from Yakushev etc. Too bad he didn't play more on the Soviet national team. It had nothing to do with his skills; he just had a stormy relationship with Tikhonov.

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06-30-2014, 04:07 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VMBM View Post
Starshinov was a center - mostly at least.
Is that official? He would be in my top 80 if he qualified as a winger.

edit: Looked it up and answered my own question.

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06-30-2014, 01:58 PM
  #86
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I am quoting Sturminator's explanation of the VsX system from last time

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator
Allright, some more data for us to evaluate, all of which is coming from this thread, which now lives in the By the Numbers section. The VsX system is a collaborative effort among ATDers that grew from iterative tweaks to BM67's original work with Vs#2 scorer analysis. Here is a description of the methodology:

Quote:
1. First preference is to use the #2 scorer

2. If #3 points/#2 points < .90, I use the #3 scorer, unless...

3. There is a gap of greater than 10% anywhere else in the top-5 - following the same method as above: [small #]/[large #] < .90.

At that point, I take the first gap, and identify the upper outlier group (top 3 or 4 or 5 above which the gap occurs), and then go down into the scoring table until I reach a number of players which equals: [size of outlier group] * 2. The benchmark is set as an average of the scoring of these players.

4. If any player in the top-5 is more than 7% below the player above him and more than 7% above the player below him, his score is taken as the benchmark. [this is the Bathgate Rule]

Examples of the methodology:

1. 2003-04:

Quote:
The top of the scoring table is:

1. St. Louis - 94
2. Sakic - 87
2. Kovalchuk - 87
4. Naslund - 84
5. Hossa - 82
6. Elias - 81

Joe Sakic and Ilya Kovalchuk are tied in second place on the scorer's list with 87 points. There are no gaps of greater than 10% in the rest of the top-5, so Sakic/Kovalchuk, as co-#2 scorers, are used as the benchmark.
2. 2005-06:

Quote:
The top of the scoring table is:

1.Thornton - 125
2. Jagr - 123
3. Ovechkin - 106
4. Heatley - 103
4. Alfredsson - 103
6. Crosby 102

There is a 14% gap between Jagr's 123 and Ovechkin's 106 points, but no other large gaps in the top-5, so Ovechkin's 106 points as the #3 scorer is used as the benchmark.
3. 1979-80:

Quote:
The top of the scoring table is:

1. Dionne - 137
1. Gretzky - 137
3. Lafleur - 125
4. Perreault - 106
5. Rogers - 105
6. Trottier - 104

There is only a 9% gap between the #2 and #3 scorers here, but there is a 15% gap between the #3 and #4 scorers. The outlier group is the top three, so we average the scoring of the top 6 players to set our benchmark, which ends up being 119 points - a completely artificial number.
4. 1956-57:

Quote:
1. Howe - 89
2. Lindsay - 85
3. Beliveau - 84
4. Bathgate - 77
5. Litzenberger - 64
...average as benchmark: 77

Here, Andy Bathgate is more than 7% behind Beliveau above him, and more than 7% ahead of Litzenberger below him. Bathgate's score is taken as the benchmark in this season.
All of that is just to establish the benchmark for a single season, after which we divide everybody's points for the season by that number to come up with "scores" for each player which reflect their performance versus the benchmark.

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06-30-2014, 02:06 PM
  #87
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator
Generated benchmark scores can then be crunched over whole careers in order to compare player performance across eras, on the theory that the performance of the benchmark scorers (essentially the first non-outliers) has remained constant throughout post-consolidation (eg. 1926 to present) NHL history.

We generated some career-spanning statistics with this methodology which ended up being, I think, quite useful and interesting. For the numbers below, we used a mild weighting system which gives a bit more weight to sustained peak than longevity. The weighting methodology is explained in the thread. At any rate, here are some numbers:
Note that for players who played during and around World War 2, the second number is what I would call their "World War 2 fudge" - Sturminator's attempt to remove asterixes for World War 2 players. The method is described in posts 131-133 of this thread.

Seven year weighted Vs. X score - 1927 to 2014

RankPlayerScore
1 Gordie Howe 126
2 Jaromir Jagr 114.6
3 Bobby Hull 107.1
4 Maurice Richard 105.7/102.5
5 Guy Lafleur 104.9
6 Ted Lindsay 104.8
7 Andy Bathgate 101.2
8 Alex Ovechkin 97.5
9 Charlie Conacher 97.1
10 Bill Cook# 96.6
11 Doug Bentley 96.2/87.2
12 Mike Bossy 94.4
13 Teemu Selanne 92.9
14 Martin St. Louis 92.9
15 Toe Blake 92.6/85.3
16 Sweeney Schriner 91.9
17 Bernie Geoffrion 90.2
18 Busher Jackson 90
19 Roy Conacher 88.8/85.4
20 Mark Recchi 88.6
21 Brett Hull 88.2
22 Jari Kurri 88.1
23 Gordie Drillon 88.1
24 Syd Howe 87.9/84.3
25 Jarome Iginla 87
26 Dickie Moore 86
27 Pavel Bure 86
28 Frank Mahovlich 85.5
29 Paul Kariya 85.4
30 John Bucyk 85.3
31 Bryan Hextall 84.5
32 Luc Robitaille 84.4
33 Ilya Kovalchuk 84.3
34 Markus Naslund 83.6
35 Paul Thompson 83.2
36 Aurel Joliat# 83.1
37 Marian Hossa 82.6
38 Daniel Alfredsson 82.6
39 Theoren Fleury 82.3
40 Bill Mosienko 82.2/75.5
41 John LeClair 82.1
42 Dany Heatley 81.5
43 Lynn Patrick 81.2/80.0
44 Ziggy Palffy 80.6
45 Rod Gilbert 80.2
46 Lorne Carr 80.2/75.3
47 Brendan Shanahan 79.3
48 Michel Goulet 79.3
49 Patrik Elias 79.3
50 Keith Tkachuk 79.3
51 Cecil Dillon 78.4
52 Alexander Mogilny 78.1
53 Daniel Sedin 77.3
54 Bun Cook 76.6
55 Bert Olmstead 76.3
56 Bobby Bauer 76.2
57 Patrick Kane 76
58 Bobby Rousseau 76
59 Alex Kovalev 75.8
60 Herbie Lewis 75.6
61 Pavol Demitra 75.2
62 Johnny Gottselig 75
63 Lanny McDonald 74.6
64 Vincent Damphousse 74.2
65 Rick Middleton 74
66 Milan Hejduk 73.8
67 Yvan Cournoyer 73.6
68 Woody Dumart 73.5
69 Tony Amonte 73.3
70 Gaye Stewart 73.1
71 Ray Whitney 73
72 Larry Aurie 72.7
73 Corey Perry 72.6
74 Peter Bondra 72.5
75 Alex Tanguay 72.5
76 Herb Cain 72.2/67.4
77 Eddie Wiseman 72.1
78 Steve Larmer 72.1
79 Glenn Anderson 71.9
80 Joe Mullen 71.4
81 Johnny Gagnon 71
82 Steve Shutt 70.8
83 Kenny Wharram 70.6
84 Dave Taylor 70.4
85 Rick Martin 70.2
86 Dino Ciccarelli 69.9
87 Marian Gaborik 69.9
88 Rene Robert 69.4
89 Dave Andreychuk 69.4
90 Baldy Northcott 69.3
91 Todd Bertuzzi 69.2
92 Jimmy Ward 69
93 Thomas Vanek 68.8
94 Zach Parise 68.7
95 Sid Smith 68.6
96 Bill Barber 68.6
97 Miroslav Satan 68.6
98 Phil Kessel 68.5
99 Mike Gartner 68.5
100 Ed Litzenberger 68.5
101 Ace Bailey 68.1
102 Steve Sullivan 68
103 Kevin Stevens 67.8
104 Camille Henry 67.4
105 Dean Prentice 67.1
106 Brian Propp 67
107 Owen Nolan 66.9
108 Claude Provost 66.9
109 Rick Nash 66.6
110 Petr Nedved 66.4

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06-30-2014, 02:10 PM
  #88
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From last year:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
My thoughts on the VsX system, in brief:

- it is the best shorthand system we have for comparing player scoring across eras. It is rather easily better than comparing top-X finishes.

- it is not perfect, as it rests upon an assumption of equality (first non-outlier is equal across eras) which, like all non-tautological assumptions of equality, is necessarily false.

- it tells us a lot more about the relative scoring of the players lower down in the list than it tells us about the scoring of the guys at the top. The fact that the guys at the top of the list fall in such an intuitive relation to one another serves moreso to validate the methodology than to illuminate anything we didn't already know about their respective careers.

- there are still a lot of factors to consider when evaluating these players offensively, to say nothing of overall value. Non-NHL seasons (Stastny's Golden Stick), injury issues, offensive help from teammates, etc. - none of that is accounted for here. There is also no attempt made to numerically account for the effect of the war years on league and individual scoring, nor even an attempt to define what the boundaries of the war era really are. Wartime players are simply given an asterisk. There is also no accounting for differences in NHL assist tabulation in the pre-war era, when league goals typically outnumbered league assists.

- at any rate, these numbers provide a good rough outline of relative player performance across eras. They are not meant to be definitive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think Vs-X is quite a bit better than Top X finishes in determining the quality of a player (as a scorer), so long as the player has played enough seasons to fully "fill out" your requirements of 7 or 10 seasons (there's no way you're convincing me Zetterberg is even close to Malkin offensively, let alone equal).

A strength of Top X finishes is that it is an easy way to view longevity as an elite scorer - how may times did a player reach a certain level of scoring. I realize you can make tables showing the number of seasons a player reached a certain benchmark under a Vs-X system, but that gets really messy, to look at if nothing else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Yeah, how to handle players with career/peaks which do not meet the length criteria is a matter of some difficulty, and the specific rankings of active players who do not meet them yet (not so much Joe Thornton) are of questionable value. There is also the general question of how peak vs. longevity should be weighed. The weighting which informed the above lists gave relatively mild preference to peak performance. Some people, including you I think, will want to weigh peak more, others may place a greater value on longevity (wanting to weigh seasons past 7/10, for example). This is really a matter of taste.

As you know, I chose 7 seasons as the standard for the whole hockey universe because I think seven seasons was about an average length peak for the prewar guys, and I didn't want to disadvantage them in my analysis, and 10 seasons for post-expansion players because I think ten was about an average peak for this period. But these estimates are debatable, and are at any rate, wholly artificial breaking points.
The main thing to remember is the VsX 7 year numbers are just a measure of a player's best 7 regular seasons as a point producer compared to his peers, nothing more, nothing less.

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06-30-2014, 05:24 PM
  #89
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Food for thought :

- The higher you have Bill Cook, the higher you must have Cecil Dillon.
- If Bill Cook isn't in your Top-10 Wingers, resubmit another list.

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06-30-2014, 05:52 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MXD View Post
Food for thought :

- The higher you have Bill Cook, the higher you must have Cecil Dillon.
- If Bill Cook isn't in your Top-10 Wingers, resubmit another list.
I don't understand the first one.

As for the second one, yes. In addition to his NHL resume (after the age of 30), Bill Cook has this WCHL resume (from my Bill Cook ATD profile):

WCHL career (ages 26-29)

1923 (age 26): 8th in WCHL scoring when probably about 1/4 of the talent was in the WCHL. Good, not great. This was Bill Cook's first professional season.

1924 (age 27): led the WCHL in goals, assists, and points. The WCHL had surpassed the PCHA by this point - they played an interlocking schedule and Cook led the combined leagues in scoring. The NHL still had about half the talent, however (maybe slightly less). Cook led his league in scoring 40-34 (by 18%), the widest margin of any of the leaders. A decent chance of being the Art Ross winner in a consolidated league.

1925 (age 28): Missed 3 games and finished 1 point behind the two players who tied for the scoring championship. 3rd in points and goals, 5th in assists.

1926 (age 29): led the WCHL (now called WHL) in points and goals by very large margins (6th in assists). Almost certainly the Art Ross winner in a consolidated league.

After 1926, the WHL folded and the best players joined the NHL. Led by Bill Cook former WHL players were all over the NHL scoring boards. 3 of the top 4, 6 of the top 10, and 11 of the top 20 NHL scorers in 1927 had spent the previous year in the WHL.

Overall Points: 8th (1923), 1st (1924), 3rd (1925), 1st (1926)
Overall Goals: 1st (1924), 3rd (1925), 1st (1926)
Overall Assists: 1st (1924), 5th (1925), 6th (1926)

So yes, in addition to being a power forward type, he likely wins 3-4 Art Rosses in a consolidated league (he won 2 in the NHL after the WCHL folded)

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06-30-2014, 08:32 PM
  #91
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Philips is definitely getting on the list, but I don't think I'll have him in my top 20. Probably more near 30-35 without looking at a list at all, just a guess. Starshinov was mostly a center and I don't think he'd be eligible in this project. Balderis will very likely make my initial top 60 list. Nolan, Stevens, and Roberts don't belong on this list.

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06-30-2014, 09:21 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
Bottom of the barrel talents in a discussion like this.
Talent wise not so but injuries did affect their careers so that they will be off most lists one would think.

Stevens off course has the best peak of any of these guys but it was Mario influenced.

The real question is that influence more or less the influence of other players on guys like Shutt and Barber who will probably be on more lists than Stevens.

Roberts and Nolan also suffer from injuries but probably created much more of their resume than say Stevens or Shutt or Barber but will that be reflected in the lists?

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06-30-2014, 09:31 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MXD View Post
Food for thought :

- The higher you have Bill Cook, the higher you must have Cecil Dillon.

I'm with TDMM on this one, not sure why, perhaps you could explain as to why this might be?


Quote:
- If Bill Cook isn't in your Top-10 Wingers, resubmit another list.
Cook should be a lock for the top 20 but not necessarily for the top 10, his playoff record for instance isn't top 10 material or even really close.

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06-30-2014, 09:59 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
...or vice versa....? it's not like Geoffrion was a generational talent known for carrying lesser linemates, and Moore did win two scoring titles.
Fair enough. His numbers aren't quite as good, though.

I guess it's fair to say it's a lot closer to a Sedin-Sedin situation than a Thornton-Cheechoo situation.

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06-30-2014, 10:10 PM
  #95
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One very important factor you guys are forgetting is to look at stats of their centermen they played with.Are the wingers stats higher or lower than their centermen and by how much

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06-30-2014, 10:11 PM
  #96
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How should Ted Lindsay's raw offensive results be looked at considering the line he played on? Where does Gordie Drillon slot in, no one talks about him but the resume (for prime and peak) seems impressive? Will I be lynched if I have Markus Naslund in my top 60?

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06-30-2014, 10:20 PM
  #97
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Ted had more fights than Gordie Howe -the term Howe hatrick is overated Gordie only did it couple of times.Ted won a art ross,Dickie Moore won a couple.Its very difficult to pick top 10 or 20 wingers of all time-I wish you guys the best.Please remember to look at centerman or winger when picking players-thanks

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06-30-2014, 10:29 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andros View Post
How should Ted Lindsay's raw offensive results be looked at considering the line he played on?
I think it is important to look at both team and line mates and team and league context, unfortunately this seems to be done more with more recent players, that we ahve more information for.

Lindsay is an interesting case as will be Kurri.


Quote:
Where does Gordie Drillon slot in, no one talks about him but the resume (for prime and peak) seems impressive?

Will I be lynched if I have Markus Naslund in my top 60?
There are probably arguments for both guys being in and out of the top 60.

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07-01-2014, 12:02 AM
  #99
seventieslord
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One very important factor you guys are forgetting is to look at stats of their centermen they played with.Are the wingers stats higher or lower than their centermen and by how much
I will definitely be keeping this in mind.

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07-01-2014, 12:53 AM
  #100
TheDevilMadeMe
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Ted Lindsay did spend the majority of his prime playing with the best forward that hockey had ever seen to that point and the best offensive defenseman that hockey had ever seen to that point, and the Hart voting is clear that writers thought Howe and Kelly were the engines of Detroit. On the other hand, Lindsay did win the Art Ross before Howe hit his stride (though Lindsay's linemate Sid Abel won the Hart that year).

But this seems like more a discussion for round 2 right?

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