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Oilers sign Benoit Pouliot (5-Years, $4M per)

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07-10-2014, 03:41 PM
  #801
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Well, given your repeated dismissive responses when I have replied, and you ignoring what I've already replied with you have not responded as if you have "legitimately" tried to understand what has been conveyed. At least by myself in anycase and perhaps somebody else can carry on with this.

No worries, just that you're tuning out anything I've already stated so my continuing would have no different impact on you.
You've stated why you believe Corsi to be at worst an imperfect stat. I don't believe you've addressed the point about hockey being outside the relm of codification. You've stated it as fact, but haven't provided an example. Unless I am missing something at which point I would ask that you direct me to the post where you provided actual examples of occurrences in a hockey that can't be turned into data.

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07-10-2014, 03:57 PM
  #802
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But my mind isnt made up at all. I am legitimately trying to understand what aspects of hockey are off limits to codification and why. I understand that there are a multitude of variables at play at any given time and they are subject to change but I still don't understand why you dont at least acknowledge that corsi is an important stat with lots of value. It correlates well with winning, if the oilers filled thier team with positive corsi players theyd be in better shape then they are right now. Pouliot and Percell are steps in that direction.
When using stats of any type you have to be 100% sure you know why the listed stats are showing as they are. The more variables you add the more the stats have to be watched closely. Team games tend to inflate or deflate some of these stats.

If one is going to use these stats in a big way you better be very sure that a guy like Pouliot has these lofty stats because of him and not because of a host of other factors. I'm not judging Pouliot one way or another because I don't know enough about how these stats are calculated but to me you have to be careful with these things.

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07-10-2014, 04:48 PM
  #803
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Originally Posted by ScrillaVilla View Post
You've stated why you believe Corsi to be at worst an imperfect stat. I don't believe you've addressed the point about hockey being outside the relm of codification. You've stated it as fact, but haven't provided an example. Unless I am missing something at which point I would ask that you direct me to the post where you provided actual examples of occurrences in a hockey that can't be turned into data.
Of course Corsi is an imperfect stat. It arbitarily assigns a value to all teammates on the ice based on the action of a single player.

Can't you see the flaw in logic here? Corsi's intention was to measure GOALIE activity only. Instead, it has been reversed and now stands as a "strong indicator" of winning, which is, of course, not at all accurate.

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07-10-2014, 08:13 PM
  #804
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It should be pretty obvious just by some of the guys in the top 25 that corsi is an imperfect stat (burns, vrbata, hornqvist, gallagher, brad richards, frolik, gerbe, craig smith)

or better yet... go to corsi/60 minutes (means players are equal... which proponents of corsi should like corsi/60 more, then players aren't rewarded for playing more and it should just tell skill right?)
top 25 players include: da costa, jeremy morin, mike hoffman, semin, tyler kennedy, matt belesky, hornqvist, garbutt, bergenheim, gallagher, vrbata) with Brian McGrattan #81 and Zach Parise #90, Taylor Hall #77

And just for reference:
David Moss corsi 244 corsi/60 15.943
Benoit Pouliot corsi 183 corsi/60 12.291

-so people using corsi should be just as upset with the signing... we could have had a "better" player in Moss for cheaper (speculation is that he's signing in Switzerland, likely from no NHL offers)

People who claim they watch guys play and base their judgements should be upset with the signing since Pouliot had a few good months in his career (right before free agency, lucky him)
People who like corsi should be upset since we could have gotten a lot better of a corsi player for a lot cheaper
Only people left are the guys who just want big bodies and the guys who are naive and put their full faith in MacT

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07-10-2014, 08:18 PM
  #805
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Originally Posted by skorf View Post
It should be pretty obvious just by some of the guys in the top 25 that corsi is an imperfect stat (burns, vrbata, hornqvist, gallagher, brad richards, frolik, gerbe, craig smith)

or better yet... go to corsi/60 minutes (means players are equal... which proponents of corsi should like corsi/60 more, then players aren't rewarded for playing more and it should just tell skill right?)
top 25 players include: da costa, jeremy morin, mike hoffman, semin, tyler kennedy, matt belesky, hornqvist, garbutt, bergenheim, gallagher, vrbata) with Brian McGrattan #81 and Zach Parise #90, Taylor Hall #77

And just for reference:
David Moss corsi 244 corsi/60 15.943
Benoit Pouliot corsi 183 corsi/60 12.291

-so people using corsi should be just as upset with the signing... we could have had a "better" player in Moss for cheaper (speculation is that he's signing in Switzerland, likely from no NHL offers)

People who claim they watch guys play and base their judgements should be upset with the signing since Pouliot had a few good months in his career (right before free agency, lucky him)
People who like corsi should be upset since we could have gotten a lot better of a corsi player for a lot cheaper
Only people left are the guys who just want big bodies and the guys who are naive and put their full faith in MacT
Congratulations on constructing your first false dichotomy.

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07-11-2014, 07:57 PM
  #806
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Congratulations on constructing your first false dichotomy.
Why thank you, it did kind of kill the discussion on here

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07-11-2014, 08:33 PM
  #807
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Originally Posted by skorf View Post
It should be pretty obvious just by some of the guys in the top 25 that corsi is an imperfect stat (burns, vrbata, hornqvist, gallagher, brad richards, frolik, gerbe, craig smith)

or better yet... go to corsi/60 minutes (means players are equal... which proponents of corsi should like corsi/60 more, then players aren't rewarded for playing more and it should just tell skill right?)
top 25 players include: da costa, jeremy morin, mike hoffman, semin, tyler kennedy, matt belesky, hornqvist, garbutt, bergenheim, gallagher, vrbata) with Brian McGrattan #81 and Zach Parise #90, Taylor Hall #77

And just for reference:
David Moss corsi 244 corsi/60 15.943
Benoit Pouliot corsi 183 corsi/60 12.291

-so people using corsi should be just as upset with the signing... we could have had a "better" player in Moss for cheaper (speculation is that he's signing in Switzerland, likely from no NHL offers)

People who claim they watch guys play and base their judgements should be upset with the signing since Pouliot had a few good months in his career (right before free agency, lucky him)
People who like corsi should be upset since we could have gotten a lot better of a corsi player for a lot cheaper
Only people left are the guys who just want big bodies and the guys who are naive and put their full faith in MacT
Meh, that's not the correct look at Corsi though. You don't just use a one season glance and determine that as the end all/be all. You look at career trends, you look at patterns, and you do eventually look at production. Points doesn't necessarily mean production, and in Pouliot's case, he is putting up over 2 points/60 minutes, or a 55 point pace if he played 20 mins a night, and more than 50% of the goals are from his team when he's on the ice.

Pouliot also Corsi/60 doesn't really work, Corsi is put into percentages so that the playing time doesn't necessarily matter, because we can see the split in performance no matter what. David Moss can play less minutes than Pouliot and still put up a +whatever CorsiRel.

Pouliot is a solid 3rd line LW, and Moss is a solid 4th line RW.

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07-11-2014, 08:40 PM
  #808
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
Meh, that's not the correct look at Corsi though. You don't just use a one season glance and determine that as the end all/be all. You look at career trends, you look at patterns, and you do eventually look at production. Points doesn't necessarily mean production, and in Pouliot's case, he is putting up over 2 points/60 minutes, or a 55 point pace if he played 20 mins a night, and more than 50% of the goals are from his team when he's on the ice.

Pouliot also Corsi/60 doesn't really work, Corsi is put into percentages so that the playing time doesn't necessarily matter, because we can see the split in performance no matter what. David Moss can play less minutes than Pouliot and still put up a +whatever CorsiRel.

Pouliot is a solid 3rd line LW, and Moss is a solid 4th line RW.
One of the greatest assumptions made is that corsi scores even out over time or that all the exceptions are outliers etc etc. That so many players with high corsi or low corsi scored don't fit at all what would be legitimately categorized as good or bad players is not to be dismissed out of hand. Because these really are case instances, countless instances of them that don't fit.

Normally when so much of the scores doesn't fit the theoretical construct it would be time to go back to the drawing board and revisit. But in the case of corsi I guess its better to just call everything that doesn't fit outliers and exceptions. Even if they make up a substantial part of the curve..

Apparently the correct way to look at corsi is with blind faith and ample grain of salt.

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07-11-2014, 11:37 PM
  #809
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
Meh, that's not the correct look at Corsi though. You don't just use a one season glance and determine that as the end all/be all. You look at career trends, you look at patterns, and you do eventually look at production. Points doesn't necessarily mean production, and in Pouliot's case, he is putting up over 2 points/60 minutes, or a 55 point pace if he played 20 mins a night, and more than 50% of the goals are from his team when he's on the ice.

Pouliot also Corsi/60 doesn't really work, Corsi is put into percentages so that the playing time doesn't necessarily matter, because we can see the split in performance no matter what. David Moss can play less minutes than Pouliot and still put up a +whatever CorsiRel.

Pouliot is a solid 3rd line LW, and Moss is a solid 4th line RW.
People are arguing that we signed Pouliot based on his good advanced stats... I proved that they are mediocre. Good look for yourself, Corsi he is 225th in the league and corsi/60 he is 233rd.

Pouliot's corsi numbers aren't way up their every year either, so I'm not sure who came up with the advanced stat argument (I hope it wasn't MacT, which I wouldn't be surprised if it was) but it's invalid.

Corsi or whatever advanced stat you use is "supposed" to look at more then just points (since Pouliot's point totals are something to be wanting) and people were using corsi as an argument for it being a good signing.

Points/60 isn't really an advanced stat, but I'd also argue that Pouliot won't have nearly as high points/60 next year. He won't be playing with Zuccarello and Brassard so his points will be closer to 36 again if not lower. Plus he's a 3rd line guy, he shouldn't play 60 minutes a night.


If we are using points/60 as a new benchmark to try and justify the Pouliot signing, he was #138 in the league, which is better than his corsi numbers but still nothing to brag about... actually there's a few free agents ahead that could have been interesting signings if you like points/60 (this is even strength points)

Matthieu Perrault is #18 in the league with 2.45 points/60 is the name that jumps out at me... a C (area of need) who went for 3 million a year. So if this is the stat that you want to base Pouliot on, well MacT messed up, he should have signed Perrault since it's an area of need AND he's "better" than Pouliot

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07-12-2014, 12:01 AM
  #810
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Also the people arguing that MacT is using the MoneyBall philosophy are missing a big point... in MoneyBall, Billy Beane finds players that no one wants and UNDERPAYS them.... rather than finding someone who is average in advanced stats and OVERPAYING them

I don't believe in corsi or any of the other stats, they may tell a few things but I definitely wouldn't use it as the be all and end all, but for those that do and think the Oilers should adopt a "MoneyBall" mentality... we should go after these guys instead rather than Pouliot

So those that are in love with corsi should have hoped that we signed guys like
#7 Evander Kane (trade for him, he's possibly on the block... #7 and he had a "down" year)
#8 Radim Vrbata (only went for 1 million more than POuliot)
#80 Tyler Kennedy (I think he was a free agent)
#86 David Moss
#90 Mason Raymond

Fenwick lovers
#9 Vrbata
#11 Evander Kane
#69 Moss
#74 Raymond

corsi/60
#14 Kennedy
#21 Vrbata
#44 Blake Comeau
#46 Shawn Thorton
#51 Moss
#55 Jesse Winchester

Points/60
#18 Mattheiu Perrault
#96 Santorelli

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07-12-2014, 01:21 AM
  #811
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People are arguing that we signed Pouliot based on his good advanced stats... I proved that they are mediocre. Good look for yourself, Corsi he is 225th in the league and corsi/60 he is 233rd.

Pouliot's corsi numbers aren't way up their every year either, so I'm not sure who came up with the advanced stat argument (I hope it wasn't MacT, which I wouldn't be surprised if it was) but it's invalid.

Corsi or whatever advanced stat you use is "supposed" to look at more then just points (since Pouliot's point totals are something to be wanting) and people were using corsi as an argument for it being a good signing.

Points/60 isn't really an advanced stat, but I'd also argue that Pouliot won't have nearly as high points/60 next year. He won't be playing with Zuccarello and Brassard so his points will be closer to 36 again if not lower. Plus he's a 3rd line guy, he shouldn't play 60 minutes a night.


If we are using points/60 as a new benchmark to try and justify the Pouliot signing, he was #138 in the league, which is better than his corsi numbers but still nothing to brag about... actually there's a few free agents ahead that could have been interesting signings if you like points/60 (this is even strength points)

Matthieu Perrault is #18 in the league with 2.45 points/60 is the name that jumps out at me... a C (area of need) who went for 3 million a year. So if this is the stat that you want to base Pouliot on, well MacT messed up, he should have signed Perrault since it's an area of need AND he's "better" than Pouliot

Finally figured out what you were going on about..... it seems you are referencing his iCorsi numbers? anyways, I'm no expert with stats but from what I can see all that iCorsi proves is that he isn't generally the guy taking the shots while he is on the ice. Does that really mean he is a weak possession player? Didn't somebody else point out how something like 34/39 players over the last three or four years have improved corsi playing with pouliot as to being away from him. It could be that he is making the players around him better. I'm thinking he is the guy hounding the puck, taking the body, digging in the corners and creating opportunity for those around him. Sounds like a player in short supply on the Oilers.

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07-12-2014, 07:58 AM
  #812
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Originally Posted by skorf View Post
Also the people arguing that MacT is using the MoneyBall philosophy are missing a big point... in MoneyBall, Billy Beane finds players that no one wants and UNDERPAYS them.... rather than finding someone who is average in advanced stats and OVERPAYING them

I don't believe in corsi or any of the other stats, they may tell a few things but I definitely wouldn't use it as the be all and end all, but for those that do and think the Oilers should adopt a "MoneyBall" mentality... we should go after these guys instead rather than Pouliot
This point should be repeated around every 5posts in any similar discussion. Seems like its not well understood.

Indeed that the Oilers are using specious stats that don't have any well developed correlation with skill/ability/winning/intangibles and are using this to DRASTICALLY overpay certain players without even so much thought as to whether the players had the good boxcar numbers by direct means or by players on ice association.

But in Oilers parlance its OK because any time a few teams are rumored to be sniffing around its OK to wildly overpay to wit J Schultz. This is a team that pays potentials as if they were already producing commensurate to pay. Because, hey, why not?

Oh, lol

http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/07/...nhl-contracts/


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07-12-2014, 10:21 AM
  #813
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^ the point of moneyball was not about saving money on contracts. It was about finding the right players to win games. If no one else knows about these important stats, then there is a huge opportunity to save money but we exist in a sports environment where these underlying stats are well known, even by fans.

All the Pouliot defenders are doing are suggesting that these underlying stats have value, and so if you add in that value to his surface stats the total picture makes Pouliot not signficantly overpaid.

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07-12-2014, 01:51 PM
  #814
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^ the point of moneyball was not about saving money on contracts. It was about finding the right players to win games. If no one else knows about these important stats, then there is a huge opportunity to save money but we exist in a sports environment where these underlying stats are well known, even by fans.

All the Pouliot defenders are doing are suggesting that these underlying stats have value, and so if you add in that value to his surface stats the total picture makes Pouliot not signficantly overpaid.
Thank you.

With all the drama, misrepresentation and seemingly disingenuous responses in this thread its a pleasure to read a common sense post.

Some (lets call them hockey Luddites ) will claim that there is little to no value in advanced stats while they gather around and pat each other on the back for validating each others perspective.
I am sure hockey people like Pat Quinn and Don Cherry are front and center in this group.

In all seriousness this fairly new perspective on hockey (relatively speaking) will get more refined as time goes on and its application will become even more valid in supporting 'good visuals' on a player.

This appears to be an all or nothing discussion for those who hope to obfuscate the main point....which is that these stats are intended as a supportive mechanism in their predictive ability.

Nothing more.

Although in some cases it wouldn't surprise me if they were more correctly predictive than some peoples visuals. Thats just my opinion.


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07-12-2014, 02:06 PM
  #815
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^ the point of moneyball was not about saving money on contracts. It was about finding the right players to win games. If no one else knows about these important stats, then there is a huge opportunity to save money but we exist in a sports environment where these underlying stats are well known, even by fans.

All the Pouliot defenders are doing are suggesting that these underlying stats have value, and so if you add in that value to his surface stats the total picture makes Pouliot not signficantly overpaid.
All people are really doing is trying to defend a contract that the rest of the hockey world is laughing at. We'll shine up any turd in offseason here on hf and I've seen that movie endlessly here.
The reality is we're paying about as much for one player as the NY Rangers, a SC finalist, were paying for one line. With the Rangers usually being known as the big spenders.
The thought that Pouliot contract worth should be so decided by these "important stats" is laughable.
Because when you overpay Pouliot for 5yrs valued players like Brassard and Zucarello don't come with the deal.

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07-12-2014, 05:18 PM
  #816
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All people are really doing is trying to defend a contract that the rest of the hockey world is laughing at. We'll shine up any turd in offseason here on hf and I've seen that movie endlessly here.
The reality is we're paying about as much for one player as the NY Rangers, a SC finalist, were paying for one line. With the Rangers usually being known as the big spenders.
The thought that Pouliot contract worth should be so decided by these "important stats" is laughable.
Because when you overpay Pouliot for 5yrs valued players like Brassard and Zucarello don't come with the deal.
I'm pretty sure any Oiler fan will admit that the Pouliot contract is an overpay. We overpay based on a hot playoff run. We overpay to lure a player away from a contender to come to a basement squad. Arguing about possession stats is arguing about how damaging the contract is.

Imo this is how a basement team gets out of the basement. We have a lot of bargain contracts since we have a lot of RFAs. We have a lot of cap space from shipping out the last of our underperforming veterans. If we want to take the next step now is the time to throw money at the problem, and Pouliot is one of the players that MacT has singled out, along with Fayne, Purcell, Nikitin and others. There is intense risk in doing so, and this risk is on MacT. So far he's been decent in taking these risks so I choose to roll with this.

By the time this team is a winner, we can expect fewer of these overpays. Until that time I don't think we should clutch onto our principles so tightly that we leave problems unsolved.

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07-12-2014, 05:47 PM
  #817
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I'm pretty sure any Oiler fan will admit that the Pouliot contract is an overpay. We overpay based on a hot playoff run. We overpay to lure a player away from a contender to come to a basement squad. Arguing about possession stats is arguing about how damaging the contract is.

Imo this is how a basement team gets out of the basement. We have a lot of bargain contracts since we have a lot of RFAs. We have a lot of cap space from shipping out the last of our underperforming veterans. If we want to take the next step now is the time to throw money at the problem, and Pouliot is one of the players that MacT has singled out, along with Fayne, Purcell, Nikitin and others. There is intense risk in doing so, and this risk is on MacT. So far he's been decent in taking these risks so I choose to roll with this.

By the time this team is a winner, we can expect fewer of these overpays. Until that time I don't think we should clutch onto our principles so tightly that we leave problems unsolved.
Definitely.

I posted pretty much the same thing back on July 1st after the dust settled. Pouliot was an overpay...I dont think anyone can argue otherwise.


The unfortunate reality is that this team at this point in time will not be able to acquire players on value contracts.

Not going to happen.

Not yet anyway.

That being said....I believe the addition of Pouliot improves the team. We shall see if it plays out that way.

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07-12-2014, 07:12 PM
  #818
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What the hell are the Oilers doing overpaying players.

We should follow the Hawks way of winning a couple of Stanley Cups...I'm sure they never overpay players and are well under the cap.


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07-12-2014, 08:17 PM
  #819
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I am willing to bet that pouliot and perhaps purcell will get the horcoff treatment very soon if they are not scoring. That being that they will be given lots of pp time and be elevated to 2nd/1st line minutes to play with our best players and then be lauded for being good 3rd liners.

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07-12-2014, 08:23 PM
  #820
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I am willing to bet that pouliot and perhaps purcell will get the horcoff treatment very soon if they are not scoring. That being that they will be given lots of pp time and be elevated to 2nd/1st line minutes to play with our best players and then be lauded for being good 3rd liners.
Also known as the Sam Gagner treatment, or they could come out and perform on their own like Perron did last year

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07-22-2014, 05:47 PM
  #821
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im honestly most excited for pouliot. Hes big and really skilled and fast, if he can better his consistency he could be a 40 point player for us that hits and is more often then not on the attack. i think were gonna get a better player then people expect out of him.

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07-22-2014, 06:08 PM
  #822
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im honestly most excited for pouliot. Hes big and really skilled and fast, if he can better his consistency he could be a 40 point player for us that hits and is more often then not on the attack. i think were gonna get a better player then people expect out of him.
I think so too. I mean its not like he was terrible on the teams he played on. Tampa let him go after a year i believe even though he had 20 pts in 32 games. Thats not "terrible". He was great in the playoffs for NYR and he was how he was in TB during the season with NYR

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07-22-2014, 06:37 PM
  #823
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I expect an older version of Gilbert Brule although far less talented and perhaps more in line with what MPS could bring. Speed, speed speed, and fast on the forecheck when he feels like it.
A lot of ingredients, rarely any determination to use them. Primarily due to a lack of consistent want to get elbows dirty at the NHL level of intensity.

A guy that could definitely use some ugly in his game but has never wanted to bring that.

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07-22-2014, 07:06 PM
  #824
DeathbyCheerios
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He said today that it is really nice to finally have some stability. Can't be easy constantly worrying about where you have to move your family next year. Being signed for a few years might allow him to focus more on his play then anything else.

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07-22-2014, 07:12 PM
  #825
Replacement
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Must be nice to sign a 20M contract on precious little merit and have some of that stability and be easily set for life.

Lets see, lets take a stumbling NHL career reminiscent of Gilbert Brule except not nearly as high profile, but longer, a career riddled with indifferent play and lack of commitment and see what happens after you back up the Loomis trucks at his door step.

Yeah, this should go real well

I don't imagine either he or his agent is at all likely to say "lol even with a buyout in a year or two we're rich rich rich beyond belief"

I almost feel sorry for Brule. He could've taken a contract like this and parlayed it to being a slacker Bono groupie for years..


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