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Vezina fraud?? (2004 voting)

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07-10-2014, 05:36 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
You still haven't proven this.

I've taken a lot of time and effort to provide data and numbers to back up my claims. It'd be awfully nice if you'd at least provide *something* other than wild speculation on your end.
if you have a data from every years top goaltenders in save % from lets say last 20 years, top 5 goaltenders in certain year i can almost guarantee those top 5's are filled by goaltenders who faced decent amount of shots. 27-32, i'd predict that shot range going to there.

count the goalies who played were clearly number 1 goaltenders in their teams, not those who were either backups or played something like 20-40 games.

then find me a vezina winner who faced under 25 shots game from past 20 years, marty brodeur might be the only 1, that's my guess.

vezinas are won by the goalies who had highest save % and played enough amount of games to even being considered a capable vezina winner, not the guy as halak or elliot who both played 40 games, neither josh harding.

i'v given enough facts, or maybe better for for it is "living examples" but it's literally same as a fact in a different way.

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07-10-2014, 05:39 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
Prove it. Provide some actual evidence other than cherry-picked outliers.
it's proven by going trought to the goalies past 20 years who faced under 25 shots a game, played full season as starter and won the vezina.

there ain't a single goalie like that.

but there's dozen's or even couple tens of goalies who faced over 25 shots a game, played full season as starter and won the vezina.

isn't that enough proof.

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07-10-2014, 05:40 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Pegi90 View Post
i'v given enough facts, or maybe better for for it is "living examples" but it's literally same as a fact in a different way.
You haven't given any facts - in fact, you've told me to go find the facts. You've basically given me a menu order.

You've given your theories.

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07-10-2014, 05:45 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
You haven't given any facts - in fact, you've told me to go find the facts. You've basically given me a menu order.

You've given your theories.
ok lets have a different way to approach this, prove me wrong then?

prove to me that there's a goalie who faced under 25 shots a game, played full season as starter and won the vezina. martin brodeur id assume he has done it in 2003 and 2004 but that's it. or having over 92% and facing under 25 shots a game, playing full season, no need vezina but can even you find a goalie like that?

if you find a goalie like that from past 20 years, it's still only a 1 goalie which clearly proves my theory being right about how save % and winning the vezina works.

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07-10-2014, 05:55 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Pegi90 View Post
ok lets have a different way to approach this, prove me wrong then?

prove to me that there's a goalie who faced under 25 shots a game, played full season as starter and won the vezina. martin brodeur id assume he has done it in 2003 and 2004 but that's it. or having over 92% and facing under 25 shots a game, playing full season, no need vezina but can even you find a goalie like that?

if you find a goalie like that from past 20 years, it's still only a 1 goalie which clearly proves my theory being right about how save % and winning the vezina works.
You've picked an exceptionally small threshold.

Since the start of Vezina voting in 1981-82, only 7% of goaltenders (weighted by minutes played) have faced fewer than 25 shots/game over the course of a season.

One would therefore assume that, among Vezina winners, only about 7% would have faced fewer than 25 shots/game over the course of their season.

Because of this, it's no wonder that you're not seeing the results that you're hoping for. It sure as heck doesn't prove that goaltenders facing more shots have an easier time posting high save percentages.

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07-10-2014, 06:06 PM
  #81
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This is the same award for which Ray Emery received votes as a backup. Take it for what it is.

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07-10-2014, 06:12 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
You've picked an exceptionally small threshold.

Since the start of Vezina voting in 1981-82, only 7% of goaltenders (weighted by minutes played) have faced fewer than 25 shots/game over the course of a season.

One would therefore assume that, among Vezina winners, only about 7% would have faced fewer than 25 shots/game over the course of their season.

Because of this, it's no wonder that you're not seeing the results that you're hoping for. It sure as heck doesn't prove that goaltenders facing more shots have an easier time posting high save percentages.
in the 80s save % didn't mean literally anything, i remember them not even counting it(for obvious reasons). in the 80s gga mattered more and wins. 90s and 2000s its the save %, i think that was the actual "topic" we started to argue for which matters the most when it comes to winning the vezina.

i rather start counting from the 90s when it was a stat which started to matter more in people's eyes and vezina vote and now we are already in 2014 when it matters even more due the fact goaltending has became more "robotic" and blocking style.

you said that facing more shots have an easier time to post higher save %, it surely aint easier when you face more shots, but it gives that chance to post higher save %. isn't it already pretty clear that if goalie faced just 20 shots a game, his gga would be ridiclously low if he wanted 93.8%? from 25 shots u would need to save 23.5 for making it 94% and you gga would be around 1.50 = which aint possible after long period of time, do you agree with me?

so it's based on what is technically possible, based on average scoring in this league and there's many examples of speaking behalf of this "theory".

it's like having longer legs, you will have technically better chance to run faster but it doesn't necessarily mean it.

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07-10-2014, 06:19 PM
  #83
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You seem to have batted around and are back at the top of the order with your original undocumented argument (in fact, it looks like you've copied and pasted including the numbers from past threads of yours).

Apparently, all of my data work meant nothing to you, and so I'm not going to bother repeating the exercise.

Until you actually provide data or (real) evidence to back up your argument, there's no reason for me to pile on additional counterdata.

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07-10-2014, 06:49 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
You seem to have batted around and are back at the top of the order with your original undocumented argument (in fact, it looks like you've copied and pasted including the numbers from past threads of yours).

Apparently, all of my data work meant nothing to you, and so I'm not going to bother repeating the exercise.

Until you actually provide data or (real) evidence to back up your argument, there's no reason for me to pile on additional counterdata.
only data iv seen by you are those vezina stats since 1982 to this day.

you have a data, i have my theories, it should create an excellent tandem to prove some points being correct or not.

anyways, this is something you can follow next year, why not any1 else if wanting to:

90.50 - 20 shots
90.75 - 21 shots
91.00 - 22 shots
91.25 - 23 shots
91.50 - 24 shots
91.75 - 25 shots
92.00 - 26 shots
92.25 - 27 shots
92.50 - 28 shots
92.75 - 29 shots
93.00 - 30 shots
93.25 - 31 shots
93.50 - 32 shots
93.75 - 33 shots
94.00 - 34 shots

those are the estimated save % id except an league elite goaltender record(remember this is my prediction)

you can use that next year for these 5 goalies which i think are the best in the league:

in no order:

jonathan quick
henrik lundqvist
tuukka rask
pekka rinne
carey price

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07-10-2014, 07:13 PM
  #85
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I honestly have no idea what to do with that.

I do see a great way to win games, though, using that chart - set your team up so that the goaltenders face 58 shots per game. Get a couple of Norm MacIvers, Phil Housleys, Sandis Ozolinshes, and that oughta do it.

End result: 100% save percentage, and the playoffs are guaranteed.

Just don't allow more than 58, or the fabric of the universe will tear apart.

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07-10-2014, 07:27 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I honestly have no idea what to do with that.

I do see a great way to win games, though, using that chart - set your team up so that the goaltenders face 58 shots per game. Get a couple of Norm MacIvers, Phil Housleys, Sandis Ozolinshes, and that oughta do it.

End result: 100% save percentage, and the playoffs are guaranteed.

Just don't allow more than 58, or the fabric of the universe will tear apart.
those were the absolute extreme ends for both ways, 20 shots and 34, doubt we see lower or higher avg faced shots in this upcoming season. that 94% is based on brian elliot's 94% after 40 games or tim thomas 93.8% in something like +50 games.

that table is just my prediction for upcoming season, not like it's an absolute fact as you prob have noticed cause such a thing ain't even possible when you are predicting something.

it's just a little game, will see if i was even close to being right end of the season.

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07-10-2014, 07:37 PM
  #87
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Hey, I love games - after all, games are why we're all here to begin with.

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07-10-2014, 07:47 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
Hey, I love games - after all, games are why we're all here to begin with.
well don't know if you meant to be sarcastic or not but

i put my own honor on the table while making that % list. if there's a guy who faces 25 shots a game and gets 93.0% and wins the vezina, i literally made clown out of myself.

and if it happens twice in back-to-back seasons, ill dissapear from this forum

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07-10-2014, 07:48 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I do see a great way to win games, though, using that chart - set your team up so that the goaltenders face 58 shots per game. Get a couple of Norm MacIvers, Phil Housleys, Sandis Ozolinshes, and that oughta do it.
Ouch.

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07-10-2014, 07:50 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Ouch.
For the record, my very first-ever Strat-o-Matic team advanced to the league finals with a top pairing of Eric Desjardins and Norm MacIver.

I present to you your 1997 Western Conference Champion Seattle Rainiers.

EDIT: forgot Steve Duchesne (although that may not be much of an improvement over MacIver).

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07-10-2014, 07:55 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Pegi90 View Post
well don't know if you meant to be sarcastic or not but

i put my own honor on the table while making that % list. if there's a guy who faces 25 shots a game and gets 93.0% and wins the vezina, i literally made clown out of myself.

and if it happens twice in back-to-back seasons, ill dissapear from this forum
Anyone want to do the math on Burns-era Patrick Roy?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
For the record, my very first-ever Strat-o-Matic team advanced to the league finals with a top pairing of Eric Desjardins and Norm MacIver.

I present to you your 1997 Western Conference Champion Seattle Rainiers.

EDIT: forgot Steve Duchesne (although that may not be much of an improvement over MacIver).
I have come so close to ordering Strat-O-Matic out of the back of magazines so many times, and now I think I'll always regret it!

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07-10-2014, 07:58 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Anyone want to do the math on Burns-era Patrick Roy?
Roy's low shots/game in that era was 26.9 in 1988-89.

Of course, for the era that was exceptionally low - no one was facing under 25 shots per game (the only regular seeing under 25 that year was Rick Wamsley, who saw 24.9, and was above average in doing so). Which is why you don't see Vezina winners with those credentials, either.

Other than Wamsley, the only NHL goaltenders who faced fewer than 25 shots/game in 1988-89 are Chris Clifford (zero shots in four minutes) and Randy Exelby (one shot in three minutes). Their combined save percentage was 100%, for what it's worth.

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07-10-2014, 09:23 PM
  #93
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Yeah, the # of wins I think is what hurt Luongo that year.

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07-10-2014, 10:07 PM
  #94
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Wow, lots of discussion since I last responded this morning.

BM67 - I misread CB's original post, so my potential explanation (that goalies getting pulled could skew the data) wouldn't apply. Thanks for pointing that out.

I used the data CB posted (using only the data in 19 shots/60M to to the 42 shots/60M categories). I've excluded the other categories because there were fewer than 500 shots in each of those categories (an arbitrary cut-off, but trying to ensure that small sample sizes don`t skew the results).

I created a scatterplot graph. Doing a simple linear regression, I found that each additional shot faced per minute would increase the expected save percentage by 0.12%. In other words - we'd expect a goalie who faces 5 shots/60M more than the league average to have, all other things being equal, a save percentage around 0.6% higher than the league average.

A few disclaimers - as CB said, there could be other factors at play (including score effects). Also, the model, although decent, doesn't have overly strong predictive power (R^2 = 0.57). Furthermore, the data is from 2013 - I'd be interested in seeing if this holds up in other years. All things considered, this gives us a decent ballpark estimate of the relationship and although it appears to be present, it's quite small.

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07-11-2014, 12:33 AM
  #95
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Very interesting - thanks! I was also worried about goalies being pulled skewing the data, and that was my attempt at a solution.

I can put the other data up at some point soon; I'll be spending all of tomorrow in the public library looking at microfilm (a true nerd's way to spend a day off).

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07-12-2014, 01:27 AM
  #96
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Let's face it, who was the best goalie in the world in 2004? It was Brodeur, and I say that without even blinking. Look at the World Cup. Luongo comes in for that one game and Brodeur nurses his injury and comes right back. I know I felt safer with Brodeur. This was the peak of his career.

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07-12-2014, 08:44 AM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Let's face it, who was the best goalie in the world in 2004? It was Brodeur, and I say that without even blinking. Look at the World Cup. Luongo comes in for that one game and Brodeur nurses his injury and comes right back. I know I felt safer with Brodeur. This was the peak of his career.
Even if one to assume that were true (and my 14 year old-self definitely preferred Luongo), the Vezina isn't given to the player who people think is the best goalie in the world.

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07-12-2014, 09:11 AM
  #98
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Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
Even if one to assume that were true (and my 14 year old-self definitely preferred Luongo), the Vezina isn't given to the player who people think is the best goalie in the world.
vezina is given to the goalie who has highest save %.

too bad goalies which ain't facing that many shots doesn't have equal chance for such a trophy.

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07-12-2014, 10:05 AM
  #99
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Let's face it, who was the best goalie in the world in 2004?
Miikka Kiprusoff.

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07-12-2014, 10:25 AM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Pegi90 View Post
vezina is given to the goalie who has highest save %.
How did you manage to circle back around to this, after the mountain of data that I provided up above?

Please stop posting claims that have been proven to be false.

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