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The Edmonton Oilers, Nail Yakupov and Opportunity

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Old
07-11-2014, 02:18 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by BarDownBobo View Post
After the Oilers acquired Scrivens Yakupov was a whopping....wait for it....-3. He's obviously not very good defensively, but you have to wonder how much of his minus is because of having an awful goalie playing behind him.
yakupov has defensive problems, no doubt about that, but his plus/minus stat is used way too often as some sort of proof that he is terrible in his own zone

yakupov had the worst on-ice save percentage at even strength *in the entire league* (min 41 GP)... meaning that he had the worst goaltending performance behind him in the entire league.... you think that might have affected his +/-, his confidence, and how the coach deployed him? additionally, clearly this is not all his fault, even if it was somewhat his fault (being out of position etc)... link to stat: http://www.extraskater.com/players/p...ev&sort=sv_pct

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07-11-2014, 02:22 PM
  #77
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that's right. but that is the moment when Mr. effing 6 rings needs to stand up and say to his boss: 'let us make the hockey decisions, or here is my resignation'. he didn't. he just sat at the table and nodded his head.
to be fair, we have absolutely ZERO proof that this indeed happened... there have been lots of rumors, but i've yet to see one single piece of actual evidence... regardless, yakupov was the right pick, everybody thought so (and most still do)

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07-11-2014, 03:17 PM
  #78
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If the Oilers start this year like they did last year, Eakins is gone after 10 games with Ramsay taking over.

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07-11-2014, 05:55 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by ChaoticOrange View Post
If the Oilers start this year like they did last year, Eakins is gone after 10 games with Ramsay taking over.
Eakins will last longer than 10 games for sure but he could be fired if the team tanks the 1st half of the season. However it won't be Ramsey behind the bench it will be MacT.

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07-12-2014, 12:14 AM
  #80
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Eakins will last longer than 10 games for sure but he could be fired if the team tanks the 1st half of the season. However it won't be Ramsey behind the bench it will be MacT.
no way. It would be Ramsay. The guy is very experienced at being an interim coach. He's done a good job of taking on a roster with a fired head coach. Definitely a solid option for us.

Having said that, I'll pulling for Eakins to be our guy. I just don't want to flush another season away, and there are good things about Eakins that we will see more of hopefully.

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07-12-2014, 12:29 AM
  #81
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Eakins got boned by a bad goalie during his first couple dozen games.

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07-12-2014, 04:39 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Nihilist View Post
Eakins got boned by a bad goalie during his first couple dozen games.
He got boned by his bone headed defensive scheme that was clearly not working. Hopefully he learnt from it.

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07-12-2014, 08:53 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Nihilist View Post
Eakins got boned by a bad goalie during his first couple dozen games.
Well lets take a quick look at that then.

Oilers record after 24GP;

7W 15L 2OTL 64GF 84GA -20differential

Rest of the way;

58GP 22W 29L 4 3 139GF 186GA -47differential

While the oilers were somewhat better in the rest of the season they were still far off the pack and with numbers that still add up to worst 5 teams in league type territory. Interestingly the -goal differential/per game is virtually identical in either segment.

So who was boning Eakins the rest of the year?

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07-12-2014, 09:07 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Well lets take a quick look at that then.

Oilers record after 24GP;

7W 15L 2OTL 64GF 84GA -20differential

Rest of the way;

58GP 22W 29L 4 3 139GF 186GA -47differential

While the oilers were somewhat better in the rest of the season they were still far off the pack and with numbers that still add up to worst 5 teams in league type territory. Interestingly the -goal differential/per game is virtually identical in either segment.

So who was boning Eakins the rest of the year?
Oiler fans should be terrified looking at that.

Not only that, but Eakins had a chance to run a "second training camp" during the Olympic break in effect too.

Even Mac T described the situation in the room as "total chaos"

This was a horrific hire. The only solace I can say is we're probably a Taylor Hall injury away from landing McDavid. Hell we may get him anyway.

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07-12-2014, 09:19 AM
  #85
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Oiler fans should be terrified looking at that.

Not only that, but Eakins had a chance to run a "second training camp" during the Olympic break in effect too.

Even Mac T described the situation in the room as "total chaos"

This was a horrific hire. The only solace I can say is we're probably a Taylor Hall injury away from landing McDavid. Hell we may get him anyway.
Well, as long as the players are "earning it", and buying into Eakins *system*, whatever that looks like this year, we'll have a team that is recognizable and plays "oilers hockey" as befits "hockey heartland"

We'll probably have some good opening night video montages of players going to war, and several new slogans to look forward to as well.

Perron or somebody else new might even rally the troops around how its really important, essential really, to get out of the gate early and establish as a competitive side..Ference might even get his ugly on in October.

Over/Under on the first jersey tossing? Who knows.

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07-12-2014, 09:51 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
yakupov has defensive problems, no doubt about that, but his plus/minus stat is used way too often as some sort of proof that he is terrible in his own zone

yakupov had the worst on-ice save percentage at even strength *in the entire league* (min 41 GP)... meaning that he had the worst goaltending performance behind him in the entire league.... you think that might have affected his +/-, his confidence, and how the coach deployed him? additionally, clearly this is not all his fault, even if it was somewhat his fault (being out of position etc)... link to stat: http://www.extraskater.com/players/p...ev&sort=sv_pct
That is a bit misleading too. On ice save percent will be very high if your bad play leads to a lot of quality chances and odd man rushes. If someone's on ice save percentage is lower than the rest of the team it is a bad individual stat for that player, not an excuse for them

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07-12-2014, 09:59 AM
  #87
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That is a bit misleading too. On ice save percent will be very high if your bad play leads to a lot of quality chances and odd man rushes. If someone's on ice save percentage is lower than the rest of the team it is a bad individual stat for that player, not an excuse for them
The biggest point missed here is it isn't an individual stat, at all.

Save % on ice doesn't define a player, it offers a backdrop of information on potential impact. All that is being suggested is that the save % during Yaks toi is in outlier range. Doesn't mean you throw it out and don't consider it. Just that you consider it with the perspective that some extraneous factors could be going on.

I follow what you're saying but theres nothing individual about the stat. Its a team stat, its a unit stat. People for some reason want to make it about the individual while ignoring that last year the club started out with a horrible #1 goalie, had no shutdown pair, thus had every D on the club playing harder minutes than they should, had a topsix that is still half baked for the NHL and played guys like Gagner, RNH, the teams top two centers, far earlier than ideal while both players were recovering from injury. With Gagners case even more ill advised. Yak suffered quite a lot through Gagner's not being ready to play and Gagners numbers in his first 15 games back were horrible.

As has been previously pointed out Yaks numbers for rest of season, at least +/- look alright and especially considering playing on one of the worst teams in the league.

Finally, a rookie player does not create or define terrible team boxcar numbers, more to the point they end up experiencing it.

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07-12-2014, 10:13 AM
  #88
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Am I crazy for thinking that having Percel, Pouliot and Perron on the team gives Yakupov more opportunity? They're better 2-way and can do a better job of covering up his shortcomings.

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07-12-2014, 10:20 AM
  #89
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Am I crazy for thinking that having Percel, Pouliot and Perron on the team gives Yakupov more opportunity? They're better 2-way and can do a better job of covering up his shortcomings.
Trouble is if anybody said two way player and Benoit Pouliot in the same sentence any other year you'd do a doubletake.

Benoit Pouliot and inconsistent player, even project, would be more the case.

We're getting a player that perhaps resembled 2 way on the basis of playing with Brassard and Zuccarello and facing not tough opposition.

Perron, as much as I like him is a guy who hasn't honed his own zone game well enough. Adding Yak to this is going to be interval based I suspect. Yak is going to be moving throughout and out of the lineup if I know anything about Eakins.

Could be that we're looking at a Triple P line. Offensively that should be good enough. All round I'm not as convinced.

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07-12-2014, 10:47 AM
  #90
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Trouble is if anybody said two way player and Benoit Pouliot in the same sentence any other year you'd do a doubletake.

Benoit Pouliot and inconsistent player, even project, would be more the case.

We're getting a player that perhaps resembled 2 way on the basis of playing with Brassard and Zuccarello and facing not tough opposition.

Perron, as much as I like him is a guy who hasn't honed his own zone game well enough. Adding Yak to this is going to be interval based I suspect. Yak is going to be moving throughout and out of the lineup if I know anything about Eakins.

Could be that we're looking at a Triple P line. Offensively that should be good enough. All round I'm not as convinced.
Given our crazy situation at center, there's so many different things that could happen.

I'm all but positive that Hall-Hopkins-Eberle will be our 1st line.

Perron-Gordon-Percell
Pouliot-Acrobello-Yakupov

Those kinda make sense to me at times when I think of line 2 and line 3. I only call the Gordon line line 2 because they can play better for possession.

Acrobello line isn't going to get as many defensive zone starts.

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07-12-2014, 11:00 AM
  #91
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Do not get me wrong there are 2 things that I am not going defend and that's Dallas Eakins and Nail Yakupov. But, my opinion and my assessment on this is simple. I look at Darnell Nurse and then I look at Leon Draisaitl and I think that both players along with Nail would all benefit long term with either one more year or even 2 more years in the juniors.

I look at Hall being the player who proved he could play first year from being drafted, Eberle is your guy who benefitted from playing more junior and AHL before he jumped into the NHL. Than we have Nail who I think is the player the Oilers messed up on the development especially by starting in a short season as his first season. This is why there's no rush on Nurse and hopefully no rush on Draisaitl (who I feel they will based on not addressing the #2 C as of yet).

As for Nail, one can say it's his fault another say it's Dallas Eakins. My thought, it's situational. I watched a game where the top line was Eberle, RNH and Nail and I hope I never see that line again because they got out powered and out matched. Yet replace Nail with Hall and it's a different line. Ok I can be ok Nail not playing top 3 but I look at line 2 and it's another problem. David Perron (who plays bigger than what he is but can not control the whole line himself) and one of either Sam Gagner or Mark Arcobello. Neither guy has size or is all that good in their own zone, which in turns forces an offensive player like Nail to play more defensive to have that attempt to have a complete line. Now, add a bigger and more responsible C or even opposite winger (ie Benoit Pouliot) you may now create more space and more balance in the line where a guy like Nail Yakupov can begin attacking the puck primarily oppose to chasing the puck. Bottom line, I think the Oilers did not have the right mix of players in the last 2 seasons to allow Nail Yakupov to play top 6 minutes while being put in a position to play towards his strengths.

Dallas Eakins. Can you blame him for wanting his players to be complete ones? No, that's ideal for all coaches. Was Nail Yakupov out star who could get away from playing defense or without the puck? No, he wasn't, even an Iyla Kovalchuk, Pavel Bure and Alex Ovechkin got blasted for this same problem. But they were and are all better offensively than Nail, so they get a pass based on their offensive production that #64 turned #10 hasn't done much of.

Now, is it fair to say that he wasn't given proper opportunities in his 2 years? Sure, how does benching him help him gain confidence or how does bottom line combinations and restricted minutes help his development? It simply doesn't. But if Nail has a good head on his shoulders, he should be understanding the bigger picture and that he shouldn't expect 50 goals right now but if we get 30 goals by year 5 and it's consistant, no one will argue you, actually everyone will say he just became a star.

It's easy to blame someone when another falters but in this case I believe it's not just one or 2 men here it's a combination of bad development from the organization, poor production by the player mixed with mis management of the player within an incomplete complimentary cast for Nail Yakupov.

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07-12-2014, 11:18 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
The biggest point missed here is it isn't an individual stat, at all.

Save % on ice doesn't define a player, it offers a backdrop of information on potential impact. All that is being suggested is that the save % during Yaks toi is in outlier range. Doesn't mean you throw it out and don't consider it. Just that you consider it with the perspective that some extraneous factors could be going on.

I follow what you're saying but theres nothing individual about the stat. Its a team stat, its a unit stat. People for some reason want to make it about the individual while ignoring that last year the club started out with a horrible #1 goalie, had no shutdown pair, thus had every D on the club playing harder minutes than they should, had a topsix that is still half baked for the NHL and played guys like Gagner, RNH, the teams top two centers, far earlier than ideal while both players were recovering from injury. With Gagners case even more ill advised. Yak suffered quite a lot through Gagner's not being ready to play and Gagners numbers in his first 15 games back were horrible.

As has been previously pointed out Yaks numbers for rest of season, at least +/- look alright and especially considering playing on one of the worst teams in the league.

Finally, a rookie player does not create or define terrible team boxcar numbers, more to the point they end up experiencing it.
My point was that everyone seems to think that there is no individual component to on ice save percentage. I still concede that it is a team stat, but I think it's being misused by those who use it to defend Yakupov the way they do

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07-12-2014, 12:31 PM
  #93
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Eakins tried to tear him down to build him up. He failed miserably. It was bad enough to get most coaches fired. He is so damn lucky that our coaching history is what it is. He better have learned his lesson because if he does not get him going this season he will be back in the AHL without a hope of getting another job in the NHL.
This is a good point, because it ties into the Ramsay hiring. Eakins approach with Yakupov basically goes 100% against what Ramsay told Stauffer in an interview about dealing with young players. Ramsay said the tear him down to build him up strategy isn't effective in this day and age. Play to the strengths, accept that developing the weaknesses takes time.

Anyone remember that GIF of Yakupov cheating on a defensive zone draw against Washington, where he thinks the draw is won and takes off to exit the zone, but it's a 50/50 draw that gets slid over to Ovechkin (Yak's man), who buries it? Does it look like horrible D? Sure. Does it look like even worse coaching to have Yak line up opposite the league's best goal scorer on a defensive zone draw (this was on home ice, we had last change - unless it was an icing, can't recall)?

Ramsay will make a huge difference in the development of Yak. I put some of the blame on management for not finding an experienced assistant/associate coach right from the beginning. They talked about it from the outset (I recall Maurice's name coming up a few times), so they obviously realized it was an issue, yet never addressed it.

Yak is a hard worker off the ice and is in the final year of his ELC, and the only member of the young guns who wasn't given a long-term 2nd contract (rightfully so). He will be very motivated. It appears he will have an assistant coach in Ramsay who has experience grooming young players. I expect a major bounce back year.

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07-12-2014, 12:49 PM
  #94
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yakupov had the worst on-ice save percentage at even strength *in the entire league* (min 41 GP)... meaning that he had the worst goaltending performance behind him in the entire league.... you think that might have affected his +/-, his confidence, and how the coach deployed him? additionally, clearly this is not all his fault, even if it was somewhat his fault (being out of position etc)... link to stat: http://www.extraskater.com/players/p...ev&sort=sv_pct
How much of that was incredibly bad goaltending when it just so happened that Yakupov was on the ice, and how much was the opposition getting much more dangerous scoring opportunities (i.e. shots with a greater chance to result in goals) whenever Yakupov was on the ice?

I'm thinking it's a bit of both, but more from the latter. A lot more.

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07-12-2014, 12:54 PM
  #95
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This is a good point, because it ties into the Ramsay hiring. Eakins approach with Yakupov basically goes 100% against what Ramsay told Stauffer in an interview about dealing with young players. Ramsay said the tear him down to build him up strategy isn't effective in this day and age. Play to the strengths, accept that developing the weaknesses takes time.

Anyone remember that GIF of Yakupov cheating on a defensive zone draw against Washington, where he thinks the draw is won and takes off to exit the zone, but it's a 50/50 draw that gets slid over to Ovechkin (Yak's man), who buries it? Does it look like horrible D? Sure. Does it look like even worse coaching to have Yak line up opposite the league's best goal scorer on a defensive zone draw (this was on home ice, we had last change - unless it was an icing, can't recall)?

Ramsay will make a huge difference in the development of Yak. I put some of the blame on management for not finding an experienced assistant/associate coach right from the beginning. They talked about it from the outset (I recall Maurice's name coming up a few times), so they obviously realized it was an issue, yet never addressed it.

Yak is a hard worker off the ice and is in the final year of his ELC, and the only member of the young guns who wasn't given a long-term 2nd contract (rightfully so). He will be very motivated. It appears he will have an assistant coach in Ramsay who has experience grooming young players. I expect a major bounce back year.
Haven't been paying much attention Oiler interviews of late in my need to decompress from a terrible season, but I'm glad they hired some with someone common sense.

Mact was a big fan of the tear down approach as coach, and I was worried we would be stuck with another idiot of that discipline without any counter in Eakins.

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07-12-2014, 02:13 PM
  #96
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Well lets take a quick look at that then.

Oilers record after 24GP;

7W 15L 2OTL 64GF 84GA -20differential

Rest of the way;

58GP 22W 29L 4 3 139GF 186GA -47differential

While the oilers were somewhat better in the rest of the season they were still far off the pack and with numbers that still add up to worst 5 teams in league type territory. Interestingly the -goal differential/per game is virtually identical in either segment.

So who was boning Eakins the rest of the year?
That's a scary statistic... I think lots of players weren't bringing it game to game after that point though.

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07-12-2014, 02:48 PM
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As for Nail, one can say it's his fault another say it's Dallas Eakins. My thought, it's situational. I watched a game where the top line was Eberle, RNH and Nail and I hope I never see that line again because they got out powered and out matched. Yet replace Nail with Hall and it's a different line. Ok I can be ok Nail not playing top 3 but I look at line 2 and it's another problem. David Perron (who plays bigger than what he is but can not control the whole line himself) and one of either Sam Gagner or Mark Arcobello. Neither guy has size or is all that good in their own zone, which in turns forces an offensive player like Nail to play more defensive to have that attempt to have a complete line. Now, add a bigger and more responsible C or even opposite winger (ie Benoit Pouliot) you may now create more space and more balance in the line where a guy like Nail Yakupov can begin attacking the puck primarily oppose to chasing the puck. Bottom line, I think the Oilers did not have the right mix of players in the last 2 seasons to allow Nail Yakupov to play top 6 minutes while being put in a position to play towards his strengths.
It's good to have a worker or driver on every line IMO. Someone who can forecheck, dig in the corners, or out-hustle the defense. I'd call Eberle a sniper, Nuge a Ninja, Yak an opportunist, and Hall's a bull. The bull is going to mix well with any or all of those... but 3 of the 4 aren't drivers.

In Draisaitl, it does sound like we got more of a power forward, so I think not only will he mix well with Eberle and Yakupov, but he should also be able to make the jump to the NHL with more ease than Nuge and Yak. Whether that's what they decide to do is to be seen. But i like the mix of talents we have now a lot more, even with the loss of Hemmer.

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07-12-2014, 03:13 PM
  #98
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That is a bit misleading too. On ice save percent will be very high if your bad play leads to a lot of quality chances and odd man rushes. If someone's on ice save percentage is lower than the rest of the team it is a bad individual stat for that player, not an excuse for them
except that pretty much the entire team had a very bad on-ice save%, and especially the bottom-6 for the oilers (who yakupov played with a lot at the beginning of the season)... this points more to goaltending than anything to be honest, unless you think that yakupov was somehow individually responsible for sub .900 save% while he was on the ice... i'd love to see any stats you would have to back that claim up if you do indeed believe that

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07-12-2014, 03:18 PM
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How much of that was incredibly bad goaltending when it just so happened that Yakupov was on the ice, and how much was the opposition getting much more dangerous scoring opportunities (i.e. shots with a greater chance to result in goals) whenever Yakupov was on the ice?

I'm thinking it's a bit of both, but more from the latter. A lot more.
i think its a bit of both as well, but differ in which side i think has the bigger impact... if you think the problem was more with yakupov, you have to also think that the other oilers players in the bottom 20 of the league (there are 3 others IIRC) are also equally to blame as yakupov... however, this seems statistically unlikely to me... what seems much more likely than 4 oilers players being "league worst" on defence, is that historically bad goaltending at the beginning of the season drastically skewed these numbers

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07-12-2014, 04:45 PM
  #100
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I never said that Eakins was perfect.

But Yakupov needs to learn to play defense. What's the point in having a 40 goal scorer if he's also -40?

The entire team needs to learn to play defense. Hall, Eberle and RNH aren't that great about it either. We can't bench the entire team though. Somebody has to play first line minutes.

I watch plenty of games. But I'm also not stupid enough to immediately blame the coach when something goes wrong because where has that gotten us so far? This organization has gone through enough coaches, maybe it isn't the coaching.. hmm?

The anti-Eakins motion is community is nauseating.
Nobody said Yakupov doesn't need to learn how to play defense. This isn't about people thinking he should have special privileges. The uproar started with the "Yakupov fanboys" when it began to appear that there was a double standard for him and some of the other guys who were making identical mistakes. It sure looked like Eakins was singling him out when he had several other guys he could have gone after too. It could very well be that he was singled out because Eakins and the Oilers HAVE NOT given up on him and don't view him as a lost cause which we can now assume they did with guys like Hemsky and Gagner.

I suspect things will be very different this year with Eakins and many of the players, Yakupov included. So much went wrong last year that hopefully won't happen again this year. If I'm wrong though and we do see those same types of problems again then I think that will speak volumes about Eakins as a coach and it'll be tough to keep making excuses for him.

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