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As of right now how do you think the regular season will go?

View Poll Results: Payoffs or no playoffs?
Playoffs 140 47.30%
Miss Playoffs 156 52.70%
Voters: 296. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-10-2014, 04:35 PM
  #51
Zombotron
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
eternal cash flow and iridescent both suggest the 4 Canadian teams for dead last. I will be very surprised if one of them doesn't make the playoffs ...

My call is for Vancouver to place 5th or 6th. As I have said elsewhere, last year was aberration, not the new trend.
Vancouver is better than Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Nashville and Arizona. Seems kinda weird to me that some are penciling Arizona above Vancouver in their projections.

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Old
07-10-2014, 05:08 PM
  #52
LickTheEnvelope
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
eternal cash flow and iridescent both suggest the 4 Canadian teams for dead last. I will be very surprised if one of them doesn't make the playoffs ...

My call is for Vancouver to place 5th or 6th. As I have said elsewhere, last year was aberration, not the new trend.
Well the powerplay has certainly been following a trend...

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07-10-2014, 05:17 PM
  #53
MikeK
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Originally Posted by LickTheEnvelope View Post
Well the powerplay has certainly been following a trend...
No doubt. At the end of the day, this team goes where the Sedin's take us. If those two continue their downward trend, which their stats show is fact not fiction, this team will be right where they were last year.

The Canucks key players are yet another year older with many of them having already hit their peaks. I will be shocked if this team is playoff bound. Unless we have some major roster moves or players play way above and beyond their abilities I don't see how this team makes the layoffs as it stands right now. Again though, it's all about the twins. If they take yet another step back we're screwed.

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07-10-2014, 05:18 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zombotron View Post
Vancouver is better than Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Nashville and Arizona. Seems kinda weird to me that some are penciling Arizona above Vancouver in their projections.
I'd say Nashville are a bit of a WC, but with Fisher already out to start the season, they will struggle early.

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Old
07-10-2014, 05:34 PM
  #55
kanucks25
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My gut feeling says we make the playoffs. 7th or 8th spot.

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Old
07-10-2014, 05:38 PM
  #56
Krnuckfan
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No chance in hell they make the playoffs when they've downgraded in offence, defence, and goalies.

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Old
07-10-2014, 05:57 PM
  #57
mrmyheadhurts
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Originally Posted by Krnuckfan View Post
No chance in hell they make the playoffs when they've downgraded in offence, defence, and goalies.
Not so sure about that.

Offence is probably better with Bonino and Vrbata than with just Kesler. Both players individually out performed Kesler on the offensive side. Who knows what Vey and Horvat bring as well.

Defence is certainly weaker, I agree with you there. Richardson will be relied upon to do the heavy defensive lifting now that Kesler is gone and Garrison was a loss. Both downgrades for sure.

Miller/Lack >>> Lack/Markstrom and I'm not even a Miller fan.

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Old
07-10-2014, 06:11 PM
  #58
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I think Edmonton will be greatly improved next year and will finally overtake us. They probably wont make the playoffs but they will contend for a spot for most of the year.

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Old
07-10-2014, 06:21 PM
  #59
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Wow, didn't think that many people would be voting for playoffs

yikes.

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Old
07-10-2014, 06:24 PM
  #60
Krnuckfan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmyheadhurts View Post
Not so sure about that.

Offence is probably better with Bonino and Vrbata than with just Kesler. Both players individually out performed Kesler on the offensive side. Who knows what Vey and Horvat bring as well.

Defence is certainly weaker, I agree with you there. Richardson will be relied upon to do the heavy defensive lifting now that Kesler is gone and Garrison was a loss. Both downgrades for sure.

Miller/Lack >>> Lack/Markstrom and I'm not even a Miller fan.
Unlike most people, I'm not expecting a bounceback year from the Sedins, I think Vrbata will cancel out Kesler and Vey/Horvat won't be any better than Santorelli.

For goalies, Luongo played 42 games last year for us so Luongo/Lack > Miller/Lack

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Old
07-10-2014, 06:41 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Ski Powder View Post
Again, I think people can underestimate the effect coaching can have.

As for my predictions, I started off by averaging the total points earned by all players on a team and compared that to the amount of goals for scored by the team last year. If you want to have a look at the longer table below, you can see there is a pretty decent correlation between the two, with an average of 2.63 points earned per goal scored.

With that, if I can project how many points each player will score, I can make a calculated prediction on the team's total goals for. Now of course this part is very subjective and debatable, but I tried to be as objective as possible. If you want to have a look at the smaller table, you can see the various expectations I put on each player as well as they statistics last season and career averages and highs.

I can get into the specifics of each prediction later if you would like, but essentially I gave them point totals that are either around or below their career averages, except for the younger players (Kassian, Vey, Tanev, Corrado) who I expect continue to develop in some form or another or certain players who are given great opportunities to succeed (Vrbata).

I make several other assumptions though, such as players will remain relatively healthy, and if not, their point production will generally be made up for by other players (ie. say Hansen gets injured, I don't take away his points, I just assume someone like Jensen would step in and make up for it). Also, these lines are not stable, they are due to be shifted around putting certain players in better or worse positions to succeed, but regardless, the points will be accounted for. I also assume TOI is not heavily dispersed with the top line getting the bulk and the 4th getting <8 mins. I'm hoping for a more balanced attack, something that Linden, Benning, and Desjardins have been preaching this whole time.

With all that, you get a total goals for of 236. If I assume Miller and Lack can have a combined GAA of 2.40, plus the addition of an estimated 10 overtime/shootout goals against, they would have 207 goals against, giving you a goal differential of +29. Compare that to last year and the Canucks would be 9th in the league, ahead of Dallas and Minnesota. Please note in that link how correlated goal differential and rank actually is.

Now, given that both of those teams improved and others could decline, but that undoubtedly puts us in the conversation of making the playoffs, which brings me back to my original statement. I think it will come down to a hot/cold streak and injuries.
Like I said, you'd have to do the same analysis on previous seasons and see how accurate it ended up being. Just glancing at the numbers, my impression is that it greatly overestimates what the depth scoring would actually be.

For instance, that chart has 11 players putting up 30+ points, which is something only 1 team in the entire league managed last season. The numbers that are coming from the 2nd-4th lines look like what we saw from a team with elite depth like Boston, rather than a team with below average depth like Vancouver will have.

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Old
07-10-2014, 06:48 PM
  #62
me2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by silvercanuck View Post
I think Edmonton will be greatly improved next year and will finally overtake us. They probably wont make the playoffs but they will contend for a spot for most of the year.
Have they got a top pairing D or 2-way top 6 C yet?

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07-10-2014, 06:50 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LickTheEnvelope View Post
Well the powerplay has certainly been following a trend...
Sbisa will fix it.

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Old
07-10-2014, 06:57 PM
  #64
DL44
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It's clear that on paper, the top 8 are the top 8... But I'll take the probability angle on it...

There is an extremely microscopic probability that the same 8 teams make the playoffs.

Meaning there is an extremely HUGE likelihood at least one playoff team from last yr in the West drops out.

So which is likely the best team of the non-playoff teams that will, due to probability, be that team to make it...

The Coyotes, Predators, Jets, Canucks, Flames, Oilers?

I'm going to go ahead and write off the Flames and Jets right off the bat here for obvious reasons.
Ok the Oilers as well.

SO Canucks.. Yotes and Preds... one of these teams is virtual lock to make the playoffs.

Looking further into how health issues factored into these three teams missing the playoffs and WHO was injured...

I like the Preds and Canucks' chances over the Yotes...

Add in coaching changes and personnel changes... and it could go either way... but I like the Canucks' chances to be that team a little more...

So Yeah.. Playoffs.

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07-10-2014, 06:58 PM
  #65
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Yeah, I have a hard time seeing why so many people are optimistic about the Oilers.

Maybe I'm missing something, but aren't they basically taking the same terrible roster they had last year and adding a decent 18-minute-a-game defensemen in Fayne, a good third-liner in Pouliot, and a more stable goaltending situation? (And getting rid of Gagner is probably addition by subtraction.) That's... okay, but not earth-shaking. I guess we'll see if Nurse or Klefblom make the team but I wouldn't be surprised if neither of those guys are ready for top-4 minutes yet.

I'm guessing they'll improve a fair bit, but they'll basically need huge leaps forward from a lot of key young players just to be a playoff bubble team.

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07-10-2014, 07:05 PM
  #66
me2
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50% chance.

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Old
07-10-2014, 07:09 PM
  #67
Bure All Day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmyheadhurts View Post
Not so sure about that.

Offence is probably better with Bonino and Vrbata than with just Kesler. Both players individually out performed Kesler on the offensive side. Who knows what Vey and Horvat bring as well.

Defence is certainly weaker, I agree with you there. Richardson will be relied upon to do the heavy defensive lifting now that Kesler is gone and Garrison was a loss. Both downgrades for sure.

Miller/Lack >>> Lack/Markstrom and I'm not even a Miller fan.
That's only because Miller>>>Markstrom.

For me Miller and Lack are probably a wash in terms of ability right now, the difference being Lack is a young up and comer, and Miller is approaching "has-been" territory. Not to mention the fact that we are going to have to get rid of Markstrom, probably for nothing.

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07-10-2014, 07:11 PM
  #68
Bure All Day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DL44 View Post
It's clear that on paper, the top 8 are the top 8... But I'll take the probability angle on it...

There is an extremely microscopic probability that the same 8 teams make the playoffs.

Meaning there is an extremely HUGE likelihood at least one playoff team from last yr in the West drops out.

So which is likely the best team of the non-playoff teams that will, due to probability, be that team to make it...

The Coyotes, Predators, Jets, Canucks, Flames, Oilers?

I'm going to go ahead and write off the Flames and Jets right off the bat here for obvious reasons.
Ok the Oilers as well.

SO Canucks.. Yotes and Preds... one of these teams is virtual lock to make the playoffs.

Looking further into how health issues factored into these three teams missing the playoffs and WHO was injured...

I like the Preds and Canucks' chances over the Yotes...

Add in coaching changes and personnel changes... and it could go either way... but I like the Canucks' chances to be that team a little more...

So Yeah.. Playoffs.
This logic is completely flawed, and only based on the fact that you don't think the same 8 teams can make it. From what I see, they've all improved from last year, except maybe SJ, who are still a much better team than the Canucks.

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Old
07-10-2014, 07:28 PM
  #69
4thlinegrinders
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Miss the playoffs in the bottom 5

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Old
07-10-2014, 07:34 PM
  #70
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I think we will be somewhere from 8th to 10th in the conference.

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07-10-2014, 07:54 PM
  #71
DennisReynolds
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Canucks are making the playoffs and get a ****** position at an excellent draft.

Then they'll think that they can actually contend for the playoffs and trade picks & prospects the following year for a veteran player

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Old
07-10-2014, 08:30 PM
  #72
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Playoffs baby!

I honestly think we can sneak in. Might be a first round exit, but as long as they put up a good fight doing it, I see it as a good step in the right direction.

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Old
07-10-2014, 08:33 PM
  #73
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I think they make the Wild Card after the Avs drop out of the playoff picture.

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Old
07-10-2014, 08:45 PM
  #74
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I think these guys have something to prove.

And that means playoffs.

I guarantee it.

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Old
07-10-2014, 09:44 PM
  #75
bossram
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1. LA
2. Chicago
3. St. Louis
4. Dallas
5. Anaheim
6. Minnesota
7. San Jose
8. Colorado

9. Vancouver

Basically what I see happening. Hope not though.

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