I think this projection is based on which line he plays on. If he plays on the second line with Sullivan and Beech/Robi/Whomever then he should produce a career high in goals. But if Erat is on the second line and Hartnell is on the third I'm not so sure.
IMO we should have Hartnell and Erat both on the top-2 lines and have a guy like Walker on the third line
If the team went with my idea, and put Scott Hartnell between Martin Erat and Steve Sullivan, Hartnell could really put up some numbers. And, yes, I know, he's never played center. But, he's young, and adaptable. And if anyone can learn to adapt to a new position, it'd be Hartnell. He'd work his butt off playing center on that line, IMO.