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J.T. Miller this season

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Old
07-17-2014, 07:30 AM
  #1
GIANTRANGER11
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J.T. Miller this season

Guys, just wanted to know your thoughts on what we can expect from J.T.. Could he put up 40-50 points? Its not really far off from what Richards would have given us... He could be a nice addition for a full year... Must be what Sather is thinking... just wanted to see what you guys thought. Maybe our Center Depth wont be as bad as it seems.

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07-17-2014, 07:50 AM
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Obviously this isn't what you are expecting to read, given the 40 point projection.
(a)I think he will not play Center for AV. Lindberg and Lombardi will.
(b)I think he should start the year fulltime in Hartford playing all situations, for at least half season with no callups interrupting his focus.
He's still very young, and not great at either end of the ice.
He's had 3 crazy years since draft day.
The way he's been handled has held back his development.
Let him get into a groove as a top 6 over many months, leading the forwards in ice time, 1st PP and PK units, and as a team leader in the locker room and on the ice.
There are guys like Hrivik, Fast, the Bourques, Mueller, Tarnasky who can fill NYR wing spots as needed.

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07-17-2014, 07:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GIANTRANGER11 View Post
Guys, just wanted to know your thoughts on what we can expect from J.T.. Could he put up 40-50 points? Its not really far off from what Richards would have given us... He could be a nice addition for a full year... Must be what Sather is thinking... just wanted to see what you guys thought. Maybe our Center Depth wont be as bad as it seems.
If he plays the whole season in the NHL I would think 40-45 is the absolute best case scenario - something like Dubinsky's 21-22 year old season where he put up 40 points and showed that he has a place in this league.

More realistically I'm expecting something closer to Anisimov's 21-22 year old season where he put up around 25 points, showed occasional flashes of brilliance, but was still 1-2 years away from being an impact player.

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07-17-2014, 07:57 AM
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he will start at 3rd line C unless he sucks in camp. He wont suck , he's a good player and he's coming in knowing it's his spot to lose.

not sure why people crap on him. he's been a yoyo being up and down, playing RW when he's better at C

Sather mentioned him as the guy. Lombardi is here just for competition and depth. Linderg has a shot for sure but he's had only one yr in the minors so a second is not a bad thing.

I think Miller will be real solid if they just run with him and are patient during the yr. 35 pts is not crazy

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07-17-2014, 07:57 AM
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I expect him to make the team. If he gets top 9 ice time he needs to put up 30 points anyway. Hopefully he would be worked eventually into the penalty killing rotation as well. That's what I'd like to see from him.

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07-17-2014, 10:14 AM
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I certainly hope that Miller can come in and establish himself as our 3C this season. With that being said, I think he's going to be on an extremely short leash with AV, given past comments about dedication, maturity, and whatnot. He could very easily find himself back down in Hartford or watching from the press box.

In a perfect situation, Miller stays with the big team the entire season. In that case, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 25-30 points out of Miller.

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07-17-2014, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Revelation View Post
I certainly hope that Miller can come in and establish himself as our 3C this season. With that being said, I think he's going to be on an extremely short leash with AV, given past comments about dedication, maturity, and whatnot. He could very easily find himself back down in Hartford or watching from the press box.

In a perfect situation, Miller stays with the big team the entire season. In that case, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 25-30 points out of Miller.
Vigneault doesn't have that luxury unless Miller is severely underperforming and someone like Lindberg is over performing.

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07-17-2014, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Alien Valuating View Post
If he plays the whole season in the NHL I would think 40-45 is the absolute best case scenario - something like Dubinsky's 21-22 year old season where he put up 40 points and showed that he has a place in this league.

More realistically I'm expecting something closer to Anisimov's 21-22 year old season where he put up around 25 points, showed occasional flashes of brilliance, but was still 1-2 years away from being an impact player.
Exactly what I see, too, but less responsible defensively.

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07-17-2014, 10:42 AM
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J.T. J.T...the Ultimate Turnover Machine

Also the kid who ran his mouth against AV and got booted back to Hartford.

Okay I shouldn't be too hard, hope he breaks camp and has some success next season.

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07-17-2014, 11:06 AM
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You'd think this team had never had rookies make it the way some people talk about this. It's like people think Callahan, Dubi, AA, Stepan, Kreider etc just skated out onto the garden ice for the first time as they players they are today. Yes, there are going to be struggles. Is it worth it? Obviously.

I expect him to make the team, be the 3C more or less the whole season, and put up 30ish points. I don't think it's set in stone, just a prediction of what I think is most likely.

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07-17-2014, 11:12 AM
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Think that Lindberg instead gets an NHL spot during the year and that JT is dealt in a larger deadline deal. Esp given AVs pretty harsh comments. Hope otoh that he can show some of the better stuff we know he is capable of and that he sticks & becomes the potential impact player we are hoping to see in Blue

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07-17-2014, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by silverfish View Post
Exactly what I see, too, but less responsible defensively.
Anisimov was entering the Rangers lineup when there was a youth rebuild.

Miller projects to be slotted in between St. Louis and Hagelin. Hagelin is looking at 40-45 points this year.

Part of why he was so ineffective this year during the regular season was his comeback from his shoulder surgery. I've read up on his work out habits and he's a gym rat. He couldn't prepare correctly for the season.

In 11-12 he put up 38 points in 64 games. Last year he put up 24 in 48. In the playoffs this year he put up 12 pts in 25 games.

.59ppg in 11-12
.5 in 12-13
.45 in the playoffs this year.

He should be around a .5 ppg pace, give or take .05 in any given year.

That's right in the alley of 40-45 pts for a season.

Worst case, let's say MSL is looking at a repeat performance from last year. 70 points. Best case, MSL could provide upwards of 90. He did that several seasons ago.

Miller will be surrounded by speed on both sides, veteran mentorship and defensive responsibility.

I think we can expect, realistically, anywhere from 35-50 points from him next year.

I'll put my best guess at 39-42. But if he works his ass off this summer, bulks up 10-15 pounds, and comes into the season with the goal of sticking in this line up... he could give us 50 in his first year.

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07-17-2014, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by haveandare View Post
You'd think this team had never had rookies make it the way some people talk about this. It's like people think Callahan, Dubi, AA, Stepan, Kreider etc just skated out onto the garden ice for the first time as they players they are today. Yes, there are going to be struggles. Is it worth it? Obviously.

I expect him to make the team, be the 3C more or less the whole season, and put up 30ish points. I don't think it's set in stone, just a prediction of what I think is most likely.
The difference is AA, Dubi and Stepan all played competent hockey in their own end as centers, while Miller has not shown the ability thus far to do that. If he was breaking in as a winger, I'd be more confident in him, but as a center he's only shown that he's a liability. People grossly underestimate the responsibility held by an NHL center. Even one on the 3rd line.

Kreider was supposed to win a spot after his breakout playoff performance and that never happened. Those struggles sent him back to the AHL during the lockout year because he was hurting the team and his own development was in jeopardy.

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07-17-2014, 11:19 AM
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I think saying 70 points is the worst case for MSL is being awfully generous. Especially if he's playing with a 40-point winger with stone hands and a rookie center with 10 points in 56 games at the NHL level.

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07-17-2014, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
The difference is AA, Dubi and Stepan all played competent hockey in their own end as centers, while Miller has not shown the ability thus far to do that. If he was breaking in as a winger, I'd be more confident in him, but as a center he's only shown that he's a liability. People grossly underestimate the responsibility held by an NHL center. Even one on the 3rd line.

Kreider was supposed to win a spot after his breakout playoff performance and that never happened. Those struggles sent him back to the AHL during the lockout year because he was hurting the team and his own development was in jeopardy.
Well said.

Considering Vigneault went out of his way to bash Miller late last season, I don't see his spot on the roster as guaranteed in the least.

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07-17-2014, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
I think saying 70 points is the worst case for MSL is being awfully generous. Especially if he's playing with a 40-point winger with stone hands and a rookie center with 10 points in 56 games at the NHL level.
I think MSL easily gets 60 points in a full season. Hags is interesting. When he plays with a guy as talented as MSL or Nash, he plays a much better game. His speed opens up space for them and they score or they find him. Hags can't play on the Brass line IMO, it just doesn't fit. I think he should play with Stepan and Nash and Kreider should play with Marty and JTM/OL/someone else.

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07-17-2014, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
Well said.

Considering Vigneault went out of his way to bash Miller late last season, I don't see his spot on the roster as guaranteed in the least.
Sather also went out of his way to claim that Miller would have played in the playoffs had he not injured his collar bone.

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07-17-2014, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
I think saying 70 points is the worst case for MSL is being awfully generous. Especially if he's playing with a 40-point winger with stone hands and a rookie center with 10 points in 56 games at the NHL level.
He hasn't put up anything below 74 in a full season for nearly a decade...

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07-17-2014, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
The difference is AA, Dubi and Stepan all played competent hockey in their own end as centers, while Miller has not shown the ability thus far to do that. If he was breaking in as a winger, I'd be more confident in him, but as a center he's only shown that he's a liability. People grossly underestimate the responsibility held by an NHL center. Even one on the 3rd line.

Kreider was supposed to win a spot after his breakout playoff performance and that never happened. Those struggles sent him back to the AHL during the lockout year because he was hurting the team and his own development was in jeopardy.
I guess I wasn't paying enough attention because I really didn't notice that either way. I remember all those guys struggling to adapt as most non-star prospects do and I remember Miller making kid mistakes likes most people in his position do. I understand the responsibility of an NHL center, I just didn't see huge differences between those guys and Miller. Though, admittedly, I did not know the game back then like I do today.

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07-17-2014, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
He hasn't put up anything below 74 in a full season for nearly a decade...
Yea but hockey's different here...

I'm usually not that guy but I think MSL is getting older and we just have brutal luck with stars. I still think he's a lock for 60+, but idk about 70

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07-17-2014, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
The difference is AA, Dubi and Stepan all played competent hockey in their own end as centers, while Miller has not shown the ability thus far to do that. If he was breaking in as a winger, I'd be more confident in him, but as a center he's only shown that he's a liability. People grossly underestimate the responsibility held by an NHL center. Even one on the 3rd line.

Kreider was supposed to win a spot after his breakout playoff performance and that never happened. Those struggles sent him back to the AHL during the lockout year because he was hurting the team and his own development was in jeopardy.
That wasn't the case with Dubinsky, at all. The first year he was up for a few games he was a disaster at both ends of the ice. The next year he was centering Jagr on the first line. A lot can happen to a player in a short time at that age.

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07-17-2014, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
Anisimov was entering the Rangers lineup when there was a youth rebuild.

Miller projects to be slotted in between St. Louis and Hagelin. Hagelin is looking at 40-45 points this year.

Part of why he was so ineffective this year during the regular season was his comeback from his shoulder surgery. I've read up on his work out habits and he's a gym rat. He couldn't prepare correctly for the season.

In 11-12 he put up 38 points in 64 games. Last year he put up 24 in 48. In the playoffs this year he put up 12 pts in 25 games.

.59ppg in 11-12
.5 in 12-13
.45 in the playoffs this year.

He should be around a .5 ppg pace, give or take .05 in any given year.

That's right in the alley of 40-45 pts for a season.

Worst case, let's say MSL is looking at a repeat performance from last year. 70 points. Best case, MSL could provide upwards of 90. He did that several seasons ago.

Miller will be surrounded by speed on both sides, veteran mentorship and defensive responsibility.

I think we can expect, realistically, anywhere from 35-50 points from him next year.

I'll put my best guess at 39-42. But if he works his ass off this summer, bulks up 10-15 pounds, and comes into the season with the goal of sticking in this line up... he could give us 50 in his first year.
This post is awfully optimistic. Hagelin put up those points playing with Richards mostly, who is miles ahead more competent in the offensive zone than Miller is. Same goes for MSL, who had been playing with Stamkos. I think 60-65 points is an optimal guess for MSL. I'd be happy with that, beyond happy.

If Miller puts up 35-50 points (that's a wide-gapped guess there, not a lot of room for error ) I'd be astonished. Hell, I don't even think he'll win the 3C spot out of camp. If he plays the way he did last season in the NHL he certainly won't/shouldn't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
The difference is AA, Dubi and Stepan all played competent hockey in their own end as centers, while Miller has not shown the ability thus far to do that. If he was breaking in as a winger, I'd be more confident in him, but as a center he's only shown that he's a liability. People grossly underestimate the responsibility held by an NHL center. Even one on the 3rd line.

Kreider was supposed to win a spot after his breakout playoff performance and that never happened. Those struggles sent him back to the AHL during the lockout year because he was hurting the team and his own development was in jeopardy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
I think saying 70 points is the worst case for MSL is being awfully generous. Especially if he's playing with a 40-point winger with stone hands and a rookie center with 10 points in 56 games at the NHL level.
You and I really think alike I'm noticing more often than not these days. Probably a bad thing for you

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Originally Posted by Rust Heisenberg View Post
He hasn't put up anything below 74 in a full season for nearly a decade...
Again, MSL's quality of linemates this coming season assuming he's with Hags and Miller will be far below what he's been used to.

Can't swap Hagelin and Kreider because that line (Kreider - Miller - MSL) would be a nightmare defensively.

Quote:
Originally Posted by haveandare View Post
I guess I wasn't paying enough attention because I really didn't notice that either way. I remember all those guys struggling to adapt as most non-star prospects do and I remember Miller making kid mistakes likes most people in his position do. I understand the responsibility of an NHL center, I just didn't see huge differences between those guys and Miller. Though, admittedly, I did not know the game back then like I do today.
Stepan and Dubinsky stepped in quite well. Stepan went a little cold his rookie year after that first-game hat trick in Buffalo, but he maintained a responsible game in all three zones. Dubinsky earned the right to be plugged in with Jagr. Of recent memory, I think Dubinsky is the best Rangers rookie FORWARD to step into the lineup and immediately be an effective player. Stepan comes close. As does Hagelin. Think Dubi takes the cake there, though.

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07-17-2014, 11:49 AM
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Stepan needs to start better. He always has a brutal start and the past 2 seasons he's been like a ppg post January.

Back on miller, I really hope he can become a Dubi or Kesler. I just hope he sorts out his attitude problems with AV and doesn't go full Kesler on him.

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07-17-2014, 12:07 PM
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I think MSL easily gets 60 points in a full season. Hags is interesting. When he plays with a guy as talented as MSL or Nash, he plays a much better game. His speed opens up space for them and they score or they find him. Hags can't play on the Brass line IMO, it just doesn't fit. I think he should play with Stepan and Nash and Kreider should play with Marty and JTM/OL/someone else.
60 points is a reasonable expectation, but I think saying the "at worst" scenario is 70 points while playing with Hagelin and Miller is a bit much.

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He hasn't put up anything below 74 in a full season for nearly a decade...
Except, ya know, last year. The most recent, and relevant season to the point at hand.

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07-17-2014, 12:10 PM
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That wasn't the case with Dubinsky, at all. The first year he was up for a few games he was a disaster at both ends of the ice. The next year he was centering Jagr on the first line. A lot can happen to a player in a short time at that age.
His first stint in the NHL was 6 games. That's hardly the same thing as 55 games with little to no improvement in his own end. He was also proficient at the AHL level while Miller has left a lot to be desired there as well.

A lot can happen, but nothing I've seen from Miller has made me believe that there's a solid chance of him making that kind of leap.

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