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What's the odds on Draisaitl making the team?

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Old
07-21-2014, 12:04 PM
  #1
Nihilist
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What's the odds on Draisaitl making the team?

With Ryan O'Reilly's contract dispute coming up, I noticed that he was a 2nd round draft pick who went straight to the NHL as an 18 year old. He didn't have the size or pedigree that Draisaitl has. So with shrimps like Gagner, MacKinnon & RNH going straight to the NHL, what kind of odds would you give on Draisaitl being a lock in the lineup this year? If I was a bookie, I think I'd be giving 5 to 1 odds he makes it. What kind of odds would you give?

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07-21-2014, 12:17 PM
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Blue And Orange
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I would like to send him back to juniors and make him work on his skating.

Let's not rush prospects.

Get a stopgap #2 C

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07-21-2014, 12:19 PM
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dnicks17
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100% unless a #2C is added through trade.

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07-21-2014, 12:20 PM
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jadeddog
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
100% unless a #2C is added through trade.
yup, this is correct (sadly)

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07-21-2014, 12:23 PM
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I don't believe logic supports any comparison with O'Reilly's situation.

There are too many factors in play to determine whether a player in NHL ready, certainly more than just size and draft pedigree.

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07-21-2014, 12:23 PM
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OilDrop37
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
100% unless a #2C is added through trade.
I think he's a lock either way. If a 2C is added he just gets sheltered minutes on the 3rd line.

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07-21-2014, 12:28 PM
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Musashi
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He'll be on the team unless he looks as lost as Yakupov has at times during his first 9 games. Continuing to improve his skating at the pro level shouldn't be a hindrance.

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07-21-2014, 12:33 PM
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I'd say about a 90 percent chance he makes the nhl, whether he is completely ready for the nhl I doubt though

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07-21-2014, 12:41 PM
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I think he's almost a lock. But he probably should be in junior for another year. We just didn't get any better options this summer. I don't see MacT willing to run with Nuge-Arcobello-Gordon-Lander as our 4 centers.

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07-21-2014, 12:46 PM
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With our current predicament he's practically locked in already.

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07-21-2014, 12:49 PM
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Oil In My Veins
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Unfortunately I think his odds are better than I'd like.

If he forces his way into the lineup then fine, but I hope that's the only way he makes it.

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07-21-2014, 12:56 PM
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I really hope we only keep him if he proves that he belongs. There are 0 repercussions to sending him back down. Tampa sent Drouin down last year, who I believe is more NHL ready that Drai.

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07-21-2014, 01:01 PM
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50/50

He has NHL and skill there is no doubt. If he clearly outperforms Lander and Arco they will probably keep him on the team.

Which IMO is a mistake. He has many things he can work on in Junior and I think is old enough that AHL next for at least a bit would be good for him as well.

Anyone who watched RNH in Junior knows he isn't even scratching the surface of his potential so far in the NHL. If he was kept down that transition/injuries might have been a bit better. With the way RNH was playing to start the year there was no real way they could keep him down logically but now that we have seen 2 NHL centers in Gagner and RNH struggle a little bit after impressive rookie campaigns I think we should send him down no matter what. Play it safe.

Also.

Eakins is fighting for his job I am sure, and was a train wreck as far as coaches go. Unless Eakins has improved there is no reason to bring Nurse, Klefbom, or Leon into another losing year.

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07-21-2014, 01:38 PM
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Karsa Orlong
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If the Jets keep Morrissey in the NHL this season does that change anyones mind? I want to send Draisaitl back more than anything, but i think we should be aware of what team he has to go back to. Without any other high end players to develop with it might be a step backwards. Perhaps they can make a deal with PA to send him back only if they trade him to a better team.

I go from 100% want to send him back, to maybe 50/50 if Morrissey is not there.

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07-21-2014, 01:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
100% unless a #2C is added through trade.
99.9% unless a 2C and 3C are added through trade. Very small chance he plays himself off the team during training camp.

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07-21-2014, 01:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
100% unless a #2C is added through trade.
Yup. They are banking on him being ready. Might not hurt his development this year, heck might not ever. But it could.

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07-21-2014, 01:47 PM
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9:1

and that's how it is done.

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07-21-2014, 02:19 PM
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T-Funk
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95% even if we bring in a 2c.

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07-21-2014, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerchon View Post
50/50

He has NHL and skill there is no doubt. If he clearly outperforms Lander and Arco they will probably keep him on the team.

Which IMO is a mistake. He has many things he can work on in Junior and I think is old enough that AHL next for at least a bit would be good for him as well.

Anyone who watched RNH in Junior knows he isn't even scratching the surface of his potential so far in the NHL. If he was kept down that transition/injuries might have been a bit better. With the way RNH was playing to start the year there was no real way they could keep him down logically but now that we have seen 2 NHL centers in Gagner and RNH struggle a little bit after impressive rookie campaigns I think we should send him down no matter what. Play it safe.

Also.

Eakins is fighting for his job I am sure, and was a train wreck as far as coaches go. Unless Eakins has improved there is no reason to bring Nurse, Klefbom, or Leon into another losing year.
This makes a lot of sense.

But, the Action Saxon made the team the moment they called his name. He isn't even trying out. It's his job to lose, and he has to be absolutely brutal to not make it.

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07-21-2014, 02:39 PM
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CupofOil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
100% unless a #2C is added through trade.
100% even if they do add a #2C or should i say 98% if he shows completely incapable of handling NHL speed during preseason.
Based on what MacT has been saying, Draisaitl basically has the #3C spot on lockdown.
It's being gifted to him which is a damn shame because he has plenty of things to work on if he wants to be NHL ready, even admitted so himself.

I just hope that they don't ruin this kid because he has tons of potential. I almost wish that a more competent organization would have drafted him so that he could be developed properly.
It seems they think he's NHL ready just because he's big.


Last edited by CupofOil: 07-21-2014 at 02:53 PM.
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07-21-2014, 02:50 PM
  #21
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110%

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07-21-2014, 03:43 PM
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Nihilist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
100% even if they do add a #2C or should i say 98% if he shows completely incapable of handling NHL speed during preseason.
Based on what MacT has been saying, Draisaitl basically has the #3C spot on lockdown.
It's being gifted to him which is a damn shame because he has plenty of things to work on if he wants to be NHL ready, even admitted so himself.

I just hope that they don't ruin this kid because he has tons of potential. I almost wish that a more competent organization would have drafted him so that he could be developed properly.
It seems they think he's NHL ready just because he's big.
They all say that so that they don't appear narcissistic.

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07-21-2014, 03:58 PM
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100% unless a #2C is added through trade.
yep!

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07-21-2014, 05:07 PM
  #24
MoneyGuy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nihilist View Post
With Ryan O'Reilly's contract dispute coming up, I noticed that he was a 2nd round draft pick who went straight to the NHL as an 18 year old. He didn't have the size or pedigree that Draisaitl has. So with shrimps like Gagner, MacKinnon & RNH going straight to the NHL, what kind of odds would you give on Draisaitl being a lock in the lineup this year? If I was a bookie, I think I'd be giving 5 to 1 odds he makes it. What kind of odds would you give?
I don't think you mean 5-1 that he makes it as that means a 1 in 5 chance. Do you mean a 4 in 5 chance he makes it? That would be more the way I see it. I'd give Drai about a two-thirds chance of making the team (about 70 per cent).

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07-21-2014, 05:30 PM
  #25
Isaak16
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It seems to me higher levels of competition are what improves a players skating because it becomes a necessity to survive. If it's other issues, such as needing a skill-set to mature, or learning the defensive side of the game, then I can see the value in sending a player back to junior.

Skating and athleticism increases with greater levels of competition IMO.

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