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Kurz: Sharks talking extension with Braun

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Old
07-29-2014, 02:03 AM
  #26
WantonAbandon
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Originally Posted by hohosaregood View Post
There aren't many. If I really had to pick younger guys who can eat extremely tough minutes and come out ahead while not putting up a lot of offense then it'd have to be Hjalmarsson and Vlasic. In the general range, Gorges too. They're all floating around $4-4.25m
I don't think he is even close to Vlasic and he isn't comparable to Hammer either. Both were were signed at different times

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07-29-2014, 02:30 AM
  #27
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I don't think he is even close to Vlasic and he isn't comparable to Hammer either. Both were were signed at different times
I don't think it's out of the question though. Hjalmarsson got $3.5 a few years ago when the cap was at $59m even though he only had one full season. When Vlasic signed his contract, his passing was nowhere near as good as it was currently and Hjalmarsson's outlets still suck. Then if you go back to earlier this season when Boyle was out of the lineup, Braun was consistently getting the top TOI on the team and faced the toughest QoC out of all the defense.

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07-29-2014, 03:40 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by hohosaregood View Post
There aren't many. If I really had to pick younger guys who can eat extremely tough minutes and come out ahead while not putting up a lot of offense then it'd have to be Hjalmarsson and Vlasic. In the general range, Gorges too. They're all floating around $4-4.25m
Those guys were RFAs. Braun will be UFA during the next contract.

UFAs, you can add Mitchell and Girardi. Girardi has a tad more offense. Hamhuis is another with a bit more offense. Going back, you can add Hannan on his first Avs contract and Foote with the Jackets. Orpik is another who has less offense than Braun. Scuderi on his first Kings contract, less offense than Braun.

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07-29-2014, 10:17 AM
  #29
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I'm expecting 4 years. Somewhere between 3.75-4.3 aav

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07-29-2014, 11:39 AM
  #30
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The maximum for defensive stoppers with no offense is $4.5mil in UFA. If he signs, it will be a UFA contract. He doesn't quite get the minutes of those who got $4.5mil but he is very close. Anyone saying less than $4mil/year is not in touch with the market.
He can slide just south of 4 million with the right movement clause.

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07-29-2014, 04:44 PM
  #31
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I may be wrong or "out of touch" with the market but I honestly suspect Braun gets a 3 X 3.5 deal. Whenever I hear extension I know that we always get them for pretty cheap. Much cheaper than market price. But maybe I'm wrong.

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07-29-2014, 07:23 PM
  #32
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I hope it's longer than the Demers contract.

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07-29-2014, 07:30 PM
  #33
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Gardiner just got 4 per for 5 years. Would you guys be happy with that for Braun? I would.

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07-29-2014, 07:46 PM
  #34
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Gardiner just got 4 per for 5 years. Would you guys be happy with that for Braun? I would.
Definitely.

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07-29-2014, 09:46 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Those guys were RFAs. Braun will be UFA during the next contract.

UFAs, you can add Mitchell and Girardi. Girardi has a tad more offense. Hamhuis is another with a bit more offense. Going back, you can add Hannan on his first Avs contract and Foote with the Jackets. Orpik is another who has less offense than Braun. Scuderi on his first Kings contract, less offense than Braun.
Except nobody knows who Braun is

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07-29-2014, 10:10 PM
  #36
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Gardiner just got 4 per for 5 years. Would you guys be happy with that for Braun? I would.
Not really a comparable but if Braun got 5 years at this stage, he'd be getting more than 4 million per.

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Except nobody knows who Braun is
There are enough people who scout competently to know who Braun is to know his worth and pay it in the free agent market. There are a lot of idiots but enough intelligent ones.

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07-29-2014, 10:18 PM
  #37
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Except nobody knows who Braun is
Fans. Agents know plenty and Braun is represented. Even if unknown, his agent would get the word out. And, they go by stats, not how popular a guy is unless the guy is a marquis name (Subban, et al) where they can squeeze even a bit more. Even with names, it isn't that much. Look at Malkin and Crosby. Crosby has the name but Malkin is near equal in performance. It shows in the paychecks.

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07-29-2014, 10:28 PM
  #38
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Fans. Agents know plenty and Braun is represented. Even if unknown, his agent would get the word out. And, they go by stats, not how popular a guy is unless the guy is a marquis name (Subban, et al) where they can squeeze even a bit more. Even with names, it isn't that much. Look at Malkin and Crosby. Crosby has the name but Malkin is near equal in performance. It shows in the paychecks.
Definitely the first and last time Braun is used in a Crosby / Malkin comparison.

I kinda wonder how advanced analytics factor into all this. That's where Braun should shine, but you'd swear that was still uncharted (pun fully intended) waters for most coaches, including the Sharks’.

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07-29-2014, 10:33 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Not really a comparable but if Braun got 5 years at this stage, he'd be getting more than 4 million per.



There are enough people who scout competently to know who Braun is to know his worth and pay it in the free agent market. There are a lot of idiots but enough intelligent ones.
Ehhhh. if a respected gm can get by without knowing Patrick Marleau, I think Braun can slip under the radar

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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Fans. Agents know plenty and Braun is represented. Even if unknown, his agent would get the word out. And, they go by stats, not how popular a guy is unless the guy is a marquis name (Subban, et al) where they can squeeze even a bit more. Even with names, it isn't that much. Look at Malkin and Crosby. Crosby has the name but Malkin is near equal in performance. It shows in the paychecks.
I think they do. I don't think guys like Orpik get anywhere near as much $$$ if they weren't "star" players getting lots of exposure.


Last edited by magic school bus: 07-29-2014 at 10:43 PM. Reason: bolded
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07-29-2014, 10:34 PM
  #40
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Ehhhh. if a respected gm can get by without knowing Patrick Marleau, I think Braun can slip under the radar
You're talking about one guy missing one guy. It doesn't take very many to notice to drive up the price.

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07-29-2014, 10:36 PM
  #41
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Analytics are most likely not uncharted for San Jose's staff. Bobby Mac recently tweeted most teams have moved beyond Corsi, Fenwick and the like because they are looking for even better ways to evaluate. I kind of trust him when he says that.

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07-29-2014, 10:38 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by SactoShork View Post
Definitely the first and last time Braun is used in a Crosby / Malkin comparison.

I kinda wonder how advanced analytics factor into all this. That's where Braun should shine, but you'd swear that was still uncharted (pun fully intended) waters for most coaches, including the Sharks’.
McLellan understands analytics but it's not the coach that matters in contract negotiations.

DW is also well aware of analytics but I don't think it's made it's way into that part of the business, yet.

Braun has a very good agent, he'll get a good deal.

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07-29-2014, 10:45 PM
  #43
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You're talking about one guy missing one guy. It doesn't take very many to notice to drive up the price.
Fair enough. He'd have to reach UFA to find that out though

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07-29-2014, 11:15 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by SactoShork View Post
Definitely the first and last time Braun is used in a Crosby / Malkin comparison.

I kinda wonder how advanced analytics factor into all this. That's where Braun should shine, but you'd swear that was still uncharted (pun fully intended) waters for most coaches, including the Sharks’.
It isn't that advanced. 21min TOI on a team that finishes with 111 points, gets $4mil easily. He's already UFA age so RFA's aren't even in the comps picture. Duration of the performance level isn't a question either as agents/GMs all think that their guy is the next one. Look what Garrison got after one year of very good performance for the Cats; he was UFA.

The only thing that I see DW doing is trying to do the JT/Marleau thing with Vlasic/Braun. Make sure that Braun is a shade short of Vlasic's paygrade. Maintain the team hierarchy. See what Vlasic's pay is for the season after next and subtract a 100k if you think the hierarchy matters.

If DW lowballs Braun, Braun will walk for the money. Braun's agent, Sheehy, is not stupid. I could easily see Minny ready to pounce if Braun hits UFA. They have a screaming need for his skills.

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07-29-2014, 11:27 PM
  #45
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Gardiner just got 4 per for 5 years. Would you guys be happy with that for Braun? I would.
Make it 6 years and it's a deal.

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07-29-2014, 11:44 PM
  #46
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Since the market's gone up a bit since last guesses, I'll say 4 x $4 or $4.2M

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07-30-2014, 01:20 AM
  #47
WantonAbandon
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Those guys were RFAs. Braun will be UFA during the next contract.

UFAs, you can add Mitchell and Girardi. Girardi has a tad more offense. Hamhuis is another with a bit more offense. Going back, you can add Hannan on his first Avs contract and Foote with the Jackets. Orpik is another who has less offense than Braun. Scuderi on his first Kings contract, less offense than Braun.
Giardi and Mitchell are not comparable Giardi had been in the league for six years before he signed his current contract and Mitchell had been in the league for eight... Braun has only had one good season.

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07-30-2014, 01:57 AM
  #48
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It isn't that advanced. 21min TOI on a team that finishes with 111 points, gets $4mil easily. He's already UFA age so RFA's aren't even in the comps picture. Duration of the performance level isn't a question either as agents/GMs all think that their guy is the next one. Look what Garrison got after one year of very good performance for the Cats; he was UFA.

The only thing that I see DW doing is trying to do the JT/Marleau thing with Vlasic/Braun. Make sure that Braun is a shade short of Vlasic's paygrade. Maintain the team hierarchy. See what Vlasic's pay is for the season after next and subtract a 100k if you think the hierarchy matters.

If DW lowballs Braun, Braun will walk for the money. Braun's agent, Sheehy, is not stupid. I could easily see Minny ready to pounce if Braun hits UFA. They have a screaming need for his skills.
Garrison put up a bunch of goals that year, but yeah, I agree that if Braun hits UFA then anyone with the need and the space would throw some big numbers at Braun. That won't be a problem if the Sharks try and trim the fat – or at least stop accumulating it.

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07-30-2014, 03:17 PM
  #49
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I could see JB getting a Roman Josi type deal and be ok with that.

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07-30-2014, 09:56 PM
  #50
SJeasy
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Giardi and Mitchell are not comparable Giardi had been in the league for six years before he signed his current contract and Mitchell had been in the league for eight... Braun has only had one good season.
Once a player hits UFA, time in the league does not matter. That point was made with Garrison.

Despite all the claims around here, it isn't just one good season. His improvement is practically linear (which is good).

With all the grief on this issue, I will rub it in when the numbers come out (or not and admit my mistake). My track record has been pretty good. The GMs do use comps and the consistency of the corollaries around comps is pretty good. Most of the violations of principals come in desperate situations or high end players generating a bidding war.

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