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Adam Henrique's ceiling/value

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Old
08-02-2014, 11:40 AM
  #1
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Adam Henrique's ceiling/value

Didn't know where else to put this...

But my question to non-Devils fans is: what do you think this kids ceiling is?

I think a good comparable is Ryan Kesler. I think if Henrique continues developing at the rate he is, he will not only be a comparable; but possibly better.

He has amazing defensive play, along with solid offensive skill and is clutch. His two-way game is a perfect fit in NJ, which will only help him further. He is already a .56PPG at the age of 24, while Kesler wasn't even close to that early in his career (Note: I do not know the teams Vancouver had back then). Kesler as of now is .6PPG, and his teams as of late were much more offensively sound than NJ.

So, all in all, is it fair to make the assumption that Adam Henrique can and maybe just will become better than Ryan Kesler? Can Henrique become top line talent for NJ?

And what would you give to acquire a player like this?

PS: I wouldn't trade Henrique for Kesler straight up given age, contract, etc.

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Old
08-02-2014, 11:48 AM
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Lonewolfe2015
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I doubt Henrique ever reaches Kesler's peak, but a present-day Kesler is probably a fair comparison for what you could expect from Henrique going forward with a little more development. Definitely prefer Kesler today to Henrique though.

Looks like a #2C, top PK/defensive forward, with 30-30 potential.

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08-02-2014, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
I doubt Henrique ever reaches Kesler's peak, but a present-day Kesler is probably a fair comparison for what you could expect from Henrique going forward with a little more development. Definitely prefer Kesler today to Henrique though.
I agree that you take Kesler over Henrique today, that isn't debatable I don't think. But in 2-3 years, it might just flip the other way around.

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08-02-2014, 12:03 PM
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He should end up like Plekanec or somebody similar. Very responsible two-way player who can put a good amount of points, but nothing spectacular. I do not think he ever reaches Kesler's peak, that guy was a dominant force and I haven't seen signs of Henrique's play reaching that. Still a fine player nonetheless.

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08-02-2014, 12:33 PM
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If Henrique ever became available, he would be a great fit on the Oilers IMO. Him and Hall were in junior together.

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08-02-2014, 12:35 PM
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Poor man's Kesler. 30g potential. May hit 60 pts once or twice. Considering our poor offensive depth, Henrique has a lot of value to the devils.

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08-02-2014, 01:08 PM
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Kesler was also on the first PP unit with the Sedins when they were at their best

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08-02-2014, 01:34 PM
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50 point two way center. Plekanec type.

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08-02-2014, 01:42 PM
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50 point two way center. Plekanec type.
Exactly what I came to say.

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Old
08-02-2014, 02:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Definitely prefer Kesler today to Henrique though.
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Originally Posted by Devilish Predator View Post
I agree that you take Kesler over Henrique today, that isn't debatable I don't think.

What's the rationale here? I mean, they had *identical* stats last year. 25 goals and 18 assists in 77 games played on a playoff-missing team. Neither one got a single Selke vote.

I can understand comparing against Kesler's peak years Henrique doesn't hold up, but as one player is declining and the other is ascending, at one point they cross. And I can hardly think of a more perfect example of their crossing point than a year in which they had identical offensive stats in identical GP and in which neither one had a particularly noteworthy season defensively.

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08-02-2014, 05:51 PM
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Points wise, I think he's probably close to his peak, but I would have gladly made Henrique the centrepiece of the Kesler trade, had Kes been interested in going to NJ.

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08-02-2014, 05:59 PM
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I like the comparison to Kesler. The great thing that stands out about Henrique compared to other second line centers is his clutchness. I remember he scored some clutch goals in NJ's run in 2012 and he scored big goals in junior as well.

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Old
08-02-2014, 06:27 PM
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Let me just tell you this:

I would have been happy with signing henrique the first day

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08-02-2014, 08:01 PM
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Apologies. I deleted this thread by mistake but as you can see it's returned.

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08-02-2014, 08:27 PM
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Big big Henrique guy and I think him or Greene gets the C when Sal is out. I'm very encouraged by the step forward he took last season after a very underhwleming lockout shortened sophomore year. 25 goals in 77 games and found undeniable chemistry with Elias on the LW. Still a little inconsistent (scored 9 of his goals last season in a 6 game stretch), but I expect that to improve as he's only 24 years old. Absolutely dangerous PKer and excellent defensively. I can see him peaking as a 30-30 guy who may hit 70pts once. Still, a very very valuable player to the Devils. Can't get wait to see more next year....

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08-02-2014, 08:35 PM
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I see him as a 30-30, Kesler or Couture type player for sure.

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08-02-2014, 08:48 PM
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I see him as a 30-30, Kesler or Couture type player for sure.
No...... Not at all. Henrique is what he is, he will never be as Good as those two, he couldnt match them flanked by the best combo of wingers any center had in the game with Kovy and Parise. The numbers he put up with those two has him overrated. He's pretty much a better defensive, worse offensive version Of B.Schenn, or a Current Saad

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08-02-2014, 09:14 PM
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No...... Not at all. Henrique is what he is, he will never be as Good as those two, he couldnt match them flanked by the best combo of wingers any center had in the game with Kovy and Parise. The numbers he put up with those two has him overrated. He's pretty much a better defensive, worse offensive version Of B.Schenn, or a Current Saad
I don't think Parise- Henrique- Kovelchuck was a regular line? Don't watch the devils to often some I'm not sure.

As for henriques ceiling, I see him as a Jordan Staal type two way center who puts up decent but not great offence numbers.

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08-02-2014, 09:15 PM
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I think he's reached it, or close to it. Doubt his value is more to another team than the Devils.

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08-02-2014, 10:05 PM
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I think hes an extremely valuable player to have. I think he'll be a consistent 20+ goal two-way C.

I don't think he'll win Selkes or ever score over 30 goals, but he'll be a core piece for a team and a staple on their 2nd line.

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08-02-2014, 11:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasso09 View Post
No...... Not at all. Henrique is what he is, he will never be as Good as those two, he couldnt match them flanked by the best combo of wingers any center had in the game with Kovy and Parise. The numbers he put up with those two has him overrated. He's pretty much a better defensive, worse offensive version Of B.Schenn, or a Current Saad
Let's inject some facts into this wildly inaccurate post:

-In August of 2011 Zajac went down with a torn achillies and really didn't return until late March. He attempted to come back in December but only lasted 8 games before getting shelved.
-In late October of the same year, Josefson broke his clavicle and was sidelined for 3-4 months.

The devils needed somebody to step up - and badly. Kovalchuk and Parise were struggling playing on opposite wings together and needed a center to mesh with them. Kovalchuk was on his off wing and there were numerous times early in that season where the two literally ran into each other. Deboer even moved Parise to center at one point and he put up one point in 4 games. Kovalchuk was goalless in 5 straight games before Henrique was inserted between them. There was clear frustration coming from both players in interviews about kovalchuk playing on his off wing as well and the media hounding Deboer on why he was there as well if he wasn't producing.

On November 2, Henrique made his debut with the two and became a permanent fixture on that line in mid-November after Kovalchuk returned from a 5 games absence because they clicked almost instantly. Henrique put up 14pts in 14 games that November and went on to put up 50pts in 68gp the rest of that season. Parise had only 13pts in 23gp to start that season and finished with 56pts in 59gp with Henrique in the middle. Kovalchuk started the year with 6pts in 9 games and finished the year with 77pts in 68gp after coming back from a brief lower body injury in which he missed 5 games. It took until late December that year for Kovalchuk and Parise to pass Henrique in points.

He was a 21 year old 3rd round pick that stepped into top line minutes against the toughest competition and flourished - hardly should be a knock against the player and leading to an "overrated" label as you so eloquently put it. I guess "overrated" means taking an opportunity and running with it against the top players in the world as a 21 year old. He was able to pull together a pair of struggling stars as the devils hovered around .500 as a team. And, furthermore, I think his playoff resume that season speaks for itself considering the goals he scored and his overall play on the biggest stage on the planet.

Parise on Henrique making the jump: "I didn't realize he was that fast. Two goals with nice breakaway speed. He's playing with confidence right now and that's great for us and him. He's fun to play with as he makes excellent plays and is only going to get better."

So, no, saying Henrique "is what he is" doesn't fly. He's a 24 year old who earned his way into a great situation his rookie year (centering ZP and IK) and he ran with it (3rd in Calder votes in 2012). Now, he's learning what it takes to be a go to guy on a team that lacks star power and absolutely needs him to grow into a leader and goal scorer. He's coming off a 25 goal in 77gp season in just his second full year as an NHLer and has emerged as one of the best PKers in the league. The Devils are thrilled with where Henrique is currently at in his development and he's only going to get better.

All I gained from your post is that you're very misinformed regarding #14 and should probably spend more time watching him playing before tossing out more baseless statements.


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Old
08-02-2014, 11:49 PM
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Henrique posted 0.47 assists per game in 2011-2012 with Parise and Kovalchuk as his wingers.

In the 119 games since their departure, he has averaged 0.19 assists per game. That's a huge disparity, and is evident that his point total that year was definitely inflated by playing with two elite wingers.

He will have a hard time repeating his shooting percentage next year. He finished at 18.25%, which was the 5th highest in the NHL last year. Considering Stamkos is pretty much the only player to sustain that type of SH% on a year-to-year basis, it can safely be assumed that it will drop next year.

In 2011-2012, he averaged 1.76 shots per game. Finished with 16 goals.
In 2013-2014, he averaged 1.78 shots per game. Finished with 25 goals.

So he shot almost the exact amount per game, but finished with 9 more goals this past year because his SH% was almost 6% higher (and played 3 more games).

If his playmaking abilities don't improve, he will struggle to hit 50 points again next year.

Prediction time: 20 goals, 25 assists. 45 points.

And I think he'll hover around that for most of his career.

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Old
08-02-2014, 11:51 PM
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Plekanec lite is a good comparison, in my opinion.

The Kesler comparison is being very generous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sticks and Pucks View Post
I like the comparison to Kesler. The great thing that stands out about Henrique compared to other second line centers is his clutchness. I remember he scored some clutch goals in NJ's run in 2012 and he scored big goals in junior as well.
"Clutchness" is a huge sports fallacy.

Having some big goals in the playoffs really doesn't prove much.

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Old
08-03-2014, 02:00 AM
  #24
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25-30 type guy IMO.
Was top 5ish in shooting % last year I think so I dont think that is very sustainable.
Great number 2C however

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08-03-2014, 02:33 AM
  #25
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You don't want him to turn out like Kesler, believe me.

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