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2014-15 stats and underlying metrics thread

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Old
08-02-2014, 01:58 PM
  #1
garret9
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2014-15 stats and underlying metrics thread

Thought it was time to move on to the next year.

For those new to the board, I run a stats thread like this each year in order to not spam those who do not want to see certain things.

Here you will find things like:
* random numbers I find interesting that are not being written in an article
* me brainstorming ideas for articles
* links to statistical articles I (or others) have found around the in
* questions you have of things you want me to research, and my answers
* any stats work YOU have done

WINNIPEG JETS DEPTHCHART

LWCRW
Andrew Ladd Bryan Little Blake Wheeler
Evander Kane Matthieu Perreault Michael Frolik
TJ Galiardi Mark Scheifele Dustin Byfuglien
Jim Slater Chris Thorburn
Eric O`Dell Anthony Peluso
Matt Halischuk
LDRD
Tobias Enstrom Jacob Trouba
Grant Clitsome Zach Bogosian
Mark Stuart Paul Postma
Adam Pardy
Keaton Ellerby
G
Ondrej Pavelec
Michael Hutchinson
* Click the links to see an analytical focused write up on each player
* These are not lines so do not get stuck up on the order at any position... they are not even in order of my opinion of good to bad

INTRODUCTION TO SHOT METRICS
* Underlying metrics are stupid.... stupid easy
* Limits of Corsi: What can and can't it do
* Importance and misconceptions of hockey analytics
* Some of the most important pieces in hockey analytics

STATISTICAL BASED WEBSITES:

Arctic Ice Hockey - Winnipeg Jets blog that commonly dips into shot metrics (by yours truly) but not limited to
Extra Skater - the most in-depth
Behind The Net - the original website for gaining shot metrics on players and teams
Nice Time on Ice - another raw data site (but different) like Behind the Net
Hockey Analysis - third raw data site I (and others) commonly use, has advantages and disadvantages compared to BTN
Some Kind of Ninja - player usage charts and super shot tracker
Hockey Abstract - place to get GVT, player usage charts and quality starts (amongst other things), by Rob Volman of HP and ESPN


Last edited by garret9: 08-02-2014 at 02:11 PM.
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08-02-2014, 02:08 PM
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YWGinYYZ
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Cool stuff garret! One teeny, OCD request: can you make the tables a bit narrower?

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08-02-2014, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Cool stuff garret! One teeny, OCD request: can you make the tables a bit narrower?
Done.

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08-02-2014, 02:16 PM
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Done.
Cool. Here's an idea: you wrote an article (or was it truck - same-same ) about how LLF is a very good 1st line, and showed how they placed in the league based on RelCorsi and GF% - would be interesting (or perhaps depressing ) to see how the other lines that we think will get put together would stack up, at least in the Central.

If I wasn't so lazy, I'd use the template from the published article to do it myself.

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08-02-2014, 02:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Cool. Here's an idea: you wrote an article (or was it truck - same-same ) about how LLF is a very good 1st line, and showed how they placed in the league based on RelCorsi and GF% - would be interesting (or perhaps depressing ) to see how the other lines that we think will get put together would stack up, at least in the Central.

If I wasn't so lazy, I'd use the template from the published article to do it myself.
I did do an series on the lines that Maurice was hinting at:

Ladd-Little-Frolik
Byfuglien-Schiefele-Wheeler
Kane-Perreault-O`Dell

But ya... Some ideas like what you are saying may be done this summer.

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08-05-2014, 08:40 AM
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Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


Summer of bloggers.

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08-05-2014, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


Summer of bloggers.
Bobby Mac says Dellow to the Oilers.

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08-05-2014, 09:15 AM
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@TSNBobMcKenzie: BTW, in shameless plug department, my new book @HkyConfidential, out Oct. 14, has a chapter devoted to #fancystats. Some fascinating stuff.

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08-05-2014, 09:20 AM
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Bobby Mac says Dellow to the Oilers.
Another reason to hate the Oilers

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08-05-2014, 10:03 AM
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Another reason to hate the Oilers
I don't want to hate the Oilers. I want to laugh at them or feel pitty.

I can't hate them if they are below the Jets in the standings.

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08-05-2014, 10:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


Summer of bloggers.
Waiting for the Jets announcement

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08-06-2014, 11:59 AM
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Wasn't sure where to put this.... this thread seems to be a good a spot as any. Another thought-provoking read by Elliotte Friedman

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hoc...c-ferrari.html

Quote:
If you were to give me five hockey analytics versus five GMs or vice-presidents of hockey operations or five coaches -- five coaches especially -- to weigh a player, I'd take [the latters'] opinion ... A lot of analytics would have very young teams that won't win.

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08-06-2014, 01:57 PM
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Wasn't sure where to put this.... this thread seems to be a good a spot as any. Another thought-provoking read by Elliotte Friedman

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hoc...c-ferrari.html
Good ol' Vic

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Nice Time on Ice - another raw data site (but different) like Behind the Net
^ this is based off of timeoneice.com which is Vic's Website

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08-06-2014, 03:19 PM
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Feel free to move this to the draft or prospects but I absolutely loved this article.

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/26/sha...0-draft-tables

I know its old buy I missed it.

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08-08-2014, 03:14 AM
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Eakins on Hustler and Lawless talking about Tyler Dellow, stats, and video:
http://audioboo.fm/boos/2380985-tsn-...s-augst-7-2014

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08-08-2014, 07:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Eakins on Hustler and Lawless talking about Tyler Dellow, stats, and video:
http://audioboo.fm/boos/2380985-tsn-...s-augst-7-2014
Interesting interview. Funny how the little he did give up was exactly what got me into the analytics. In short when your eyes match up with what the stats say then it's perfect. When your eyes and gut are telling you one thing and the stats say something else about a player either positively or negatively "it starts a conversation" . That is the essence of self improvement in life IMO. I learned tw0 key things. Firstly, I had sold Eakins short which is never a smart thing. secondly, adding Dellow was Eakins idea so maybe there is hope for the Jets to add a similar resource.

Another comment from the interview that resonated for me was when Dallas said Roger Neilson use to get mocked for using video before the other teams used it and everyone felt it was a passing phase and he feels that is the same path analytics is on now.


Last edited by ps241: 08-08-2014 at 08:30 AM.
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08-10-2014, 10:05 AM
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For those wondering, I'll be on CJOB in 30 mins...

edit: ugh... I had a brainfart in the middle... that was awkward.


Last edited by garret9: 08-10-2014 at 10:54 AM.
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08-10-2014, 11:05 AM
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For those wondering, I'll be on CJOB in 30 mins...

edit: ugh... I had a brainfart in the middle... that was awkward.
Missed it first time around, but it's available as on-demand audio here:

http://www.cjob.com/audio-on-demand/

Select 10AM, and go to 36m in.

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08-10-2014, 12:04 PM
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Ugly haha

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08-10-2014, 12:15 PM
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Ugly haha
I think it was more than fine - you started out really well, and had them hooked initially, with the simple explanation.

If I can offer a word of advice: stay away from the more esoteric bits of the 'advanced stats'. When you explained Corsi / Fenwick initially as (paraphrasing here):
Corsi is basically shots for vs. shots against. Good teams and players are over 50%. Can be considered a proxy for possession, and trends show that a strong Corsi team will win more often than a poor Corsi team.
... you had them hooked. They responded with something that showed they got the basic concept. I think it started to unravel a bit when you undermined their basic understanding by going deeper into some of the peculiarities of the stats themselves.

Perhaps present one of your 'advanced stats for dummies' links for further reading, and stick to helping them understand the very basics of Corsi/Fenwick and how it's useful. Possibly compare it to +/-, as that's one that all media seems to latch on to as being 'important', when really it's not at all reliable.

I enjoyed the interview - just thought I'd mention a few things I'd try. When I teach courses, I try to get people 'hooked' and get them involved in the conversation - it tends to stick with them better when I'm able to reel them in, and make them think about it. If I offer up too much, it's counter productive, as they can't retain and absorb it.

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08-10-2014, 12:36 PM
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Thanks and noted!

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08-10-2014, 01:47 PM
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NHL on the brink of an intelligence explosion.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/20...?event=event25

I thought this was a decent read.

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08-10-2014, 09:44 PM
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Garret, can you include your Introduction to Advanced Statistic article your wrote this summer in the OP?

EDIT: Nevermind.

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08-10-2014, 10:14 PM
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NHL on the brink of an intelligence explosion.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/20...?event=event25

I thought this was a decent read.
Great article! A little more in touch than some of our local guys.

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08-11-2014, 12:00 PM
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I wrote an article on how you (yes that means you) can determine the value of a players Corsi% in terms of goals.
http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/08/11/...ured-in-goals/

Enjoy.

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