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2016-17 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

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Old
06-04-2017, 10:46 PM
  #651
Daximus
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Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
Well the Leafs certainly use Corsi....what exactly is a heavy shift? Sounds "fancy"

Heavy shifts is a prolonged shift in the offensive zone. I don't think anyone knows the exact time a heavy shift is counted as in TML land but I'd imagine it's around 40 seconds or more. It's counted both for and against.

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Old
06-18-2017, 02:28 AM
  #652
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This recent thread by Dellow is interesting, in which he was looking at shots below the dots by defenceman before going on this tangent. Some images because it's a long thread:







Last edited by WPGChief: 06-18-2017 at 02:36 AM. Reason: Added TL;DR for discussion
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Old
06-18-2017, 08:05 AM
  #653
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Originally Posted by WPGChief View Post
This recent thread by Dellow is interesting, in which he was looking at shots below the dots by defenceman before going on this tangent. Some images because it's a long thread:





This is worth a deep dive if I had the talent.

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06-18-2017, 01:22 PM
  #654
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I recall asking whether Buff's on-ice save percentage might indicate his propensity to give up too many good scoring chances. I think the response from Garrett and others was that save % was random, so can't be pinned on Buff. But I might be remembering this wrong.

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Old
06-18-2017, 01:38 PM
  #655
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I recall asking whether Buff's on-ice save percentage might indicate his propensity to give up too many good scoring chances. I think the response from Garrett and others was that save % was random, so can't be pinned on Buff. But I might be remembering this wrong.
It's generally true season-to-season, in which a defenceman's impact on SV% is generally unrepeatable (Hockey-Graphs post #1, post #2, post #3). It's why you see the difference in SV% of the rest of the Jets defence whether they are on or off the ice is like ~0.3%.

Looking at totals and the numbers cumulatively, however, Buff is a consistent negative outlier - and considerably so. Hell, even Mark Stuart's SV% averages out, but Buff's doesn't. That is where Dellow's (and my) interest is piqued. I do not think it was affected much by his time when he played forward (only 30-40 games or so?), so it's most likely is defensive capabilities. Is it because he jumps up in the play so often, creating 2-on-1s?


My quick theory is that Maurice's (and to a small extent Noel's) system is a very hard and rigid 3F-2D, circle around the boards for a period of time, see if their players are tired from skating around and pass it into the slot for a shot. Buff (and sometimes Trouba) are the only D on this team that like to become active all the time, and that is why we see their great offensive numbers, but the system doesn't adjust or play into this well - if they fail when they get active, the forwards trying to cover don't know what to do other than putting their stick out and skating backwards.

If you want your special players like Buff to be active, your whole team has to have a system designed around that, not just allowing him to do it every once in a while.

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06-18-2017, 03:41 PM
  #656
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Originally Posted by WPGChief View Post
It's generally true season-to-season, in which a defenceman's impact on SV% is generally unrepeatable (Hockey-Graphs post #1, post #2, post #3). It's why you see the difference in SV% of the rest of the Jets defence whether they are on or off the ice is like ~0.3%.

Looking at totals and the numbers cumulatively, however, Buff is a consistent negative outlier - and considerably so. Hell, even Mark Stuart's SV% averages out, but Buff's doesn't. That is where Dellow's (and my) interest is piqued. I do not think it was affected much by his time when he played forward (only 30-40 games or so?), so it's most likely is defensive capabilities. Is it because he jumps up in the play so often, creating 2-on-1s?


My quick theory is that Maurice's (and to a small extent Noel's) system is a very hard and rigid 3F-2D, circle around the boards for a period of time, see if their players are tired from skating around and pass it into the slot for a shot. Buff (and sometimes Trouba) are the only D on this team that like to become active all the time, and that is why we see their great offensive numbers, but the system doesn't adjust or play into this well - if they fail when they get active, the forwards trying to cover don't know what to do other than putting their stick out and skating backwards.

If you want your special players like Buff to be active, your whole team has to have a system designed around that, not just allowing him to do it every once in a while.
I don't think it's just activating offensively for Buff. He plays way too casually too often. I commented on this often last year.

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06-18-2017, 03:48 PM
  #657
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I don't think it's just activating offensively for Buff. He plays way too casually too often. I commented on this often last year.
I think buff simply plays too much. He would be optimum playing 22 mins a night in a purely offensive role and let trouba take the toughs. He could put up 20 goals, 60 points imo

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06-18-2017, 03:57 PM
  #658
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Have said it before and will say it again, this team will take a step forward defensively and move into a serious playoff contender once Buff is moved. This team doesn't seem to be able to compensate for some guys not being solid defensively. Ehlers and Wheeler have a ways to go defensively too.

Trouba being retained is very important to this team.

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06-18-2017, 04:32 PM
  #659
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I could almost believe that Buff is a major problem, except that the charts also claims that guys like Stuart are the solution sooo...

To me it's simple. Buff plays a lot more than any of our other defencemen. Buff is the most offensive of all of our defencemen. He's always going to allow more goals while he's on the ice, but he's going to produce more than he allows.

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06-18-2017, 07:18 PM
  #660
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
I don't think it's just activating offensively for Buff. He plays way too casually too often. I commented on this often last year.
That's part of his "offensive uniqueness" though. Him playing casually is him skating around the OZ with the puck on his stick and barely anyone can get it from him. But I think part of that is the allegory of the "dog chasing the car" - he (and his teammates) doesn't know what to do next once he skates once or twice around the opposition's goalie.

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Originally Posted by Weezeric View Post
I think buff simply plays too much. He would be optimum playing 22 mins a night in a purely offensive role and let trouba take the toughs. He could put up 20 goals, 60 points imo
Could be part of it. His average ice time (all strengths) has gone from 22:41 in the 14/15 season, to 25:12 in 15/16, to 27:27 in 16/17. Part of that could be Maurice's reliance on his top guys once the team goes down early, and of course injuries never help. But then how do you split it when Myers gets healthy, 20/20/20 for Buff/Trouba/Myers? No one is gonna be happy about that - unless they're winning.

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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Have said it before and will say it again, this team will take a step forward defensively and move into a serious playoff contender once Buff is moved. This team doesn't seem to be able to compensate for some guys not being solid defensively. Ehlers and Wheeler have a ways to go defensively too.

Trouba being retained is very important to this team.
I fail to see the reasoning behind this. You're essentially saying "once you remove a perceived defensive liability like Buff, these other perceived defensive liabilities of the team won't be liabilities anymore." If the team is unable to compensate activating their D (and I will mention, which is what Nashville rode all the way to the Finals this season), is that not a statement on coaching?

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Originally Posted by Festinator View Post
I could almost believe that Buff is a major problem, except that the charts also claims that guys like Stuart are the solution sooo...

To me it's simple. Buff plays a lot more than any of our other defencemen. Buff is the most offensive of all of our defencemen. He's always going to allow more goals while he's on the ice, but he's going to produce more than he allows.
It's not so much the charts saying Stuart is the solution, but rather in the vein of the Hockey-Graph posts that everyone - including Stuart - usually averages out. But Buff is a significant and consistent outlier.

That's generally true, and I believe that he does produce more than he allows, but I don't have access to the numbers at the moment to back it up. Looking at Dellow's work, you would think that it is almost contrary to this belief: he might be scoring more, but he's actually allowing significantly more. Plus, when looking at the team as a whole, one might say that it's time to sacrifice his somewhat increased scoring, and that our very talented forwards are now experienced enough to do that on their own. If Buff focuses on his defensive part of the game and gets back to a league average, sure maybe he individually doesn't score as much, but maybe it's worth the sacrifice.

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Old
06-18-2017, 08:08 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by WPGChief View Post
That's part of his "offensive uniqueness" though. Him playing casually is him skating around the OZ with the puck on his stick and barely anyone can get it from him. But I think part of that is the allegory of the "dog chasing the car" - he (and his teammates) doesn't know what to do next once he skates once or twice around the opposition's goalie.



Could be part of it. His average ice time (all strengths) has gone from 22:41 in the 14/15 season, to 25:12 in 15/16, to 27:27 in 16/17. Part of that could be Maurice's reliance on his top guys once the team goes down early, and of course injuries never help. But then how do you split it when Myers gets healthy, 20/20/20 for Buff/Trouba/Myers? No one is gonna be happy about that - unless they're winning.



I fail to see the reasoning behind this. You're essentially saying "once you remove a perceived defensive liability like Buff, these other perceived defensive liabilities of the team won't be liabilities anymore." If the team is unable to compensate activating their D (and I will mention, which is what Nashville rode all the way to the Finals this season), is that not a statement on coaching?



It's not so much the charts saying Stuart is the solution, but rather in the vein of the Hockey-Graph posts that everyone - including Stuart - usually averages out. But Buff is a significant and consistent outlier.

That's generally true, and I believe that he does produce more than he allows, but I don't have access to the numbers at the moment to back it up. Looking at Dellow's work, you would think that it is almost contrary to this belief: he might be scoring more, but he's actually allowing significantly more. Plus, when looking at the team as a whole, one might say that it's time to sacrifice his somewhat increased scoring, and that our very talented forwards are now experienced enough to do that on their own. If Buff focuses on his defensive part of the game and gets back to a league average, sure maybe he individually doesn't score as much, but maybe it's worth the sacrifice.
To be clear, my observation of his casual play has nothing to do with his play in the offensive zone. It was all related to his casual play in his own zone. Lazy and ill-advised passes, lack of attention to positioning, etc. Those were the bad signs I saw a lot in his game from early last season, and commented on it from the early games.

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