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A Five Year (or so) Plan

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08-03-2014, 12:46 PM
  #1
scelaton
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A Five Year (or so) Plan

In this summer of discontent, even our most optimistic and thoughtful posters have begun to express doubts about the direction and leadership of the organization. Does a plan even exist? Is the so-called 5 year plan a myth, a creation of the media, of Lawless, of aliens…?

I have no personal knowledge of the inner workings of TNSE, but am familiar with strategic planning and certain that TNSE has a multi-year plan to achieve their goals. That’s what good organizations do. I also have strong sense of what the components of that plan might be, both from available evidence and public statements. So, without claiming that this is THE plan or even a good plan, I am presenting the components of a semi-chronological, plausible multi-year plan. Whether you agree or not, it should give some comfort and encouragement to those who feel the team is flailing around blindly.

1)Secure a stable financial environment
- It all starts with money. In partnering with David Thomson, Chipman ensured we have one of the most financially stable ownership groups in hockey. Chipman also become a trusted ally of Bettman and helped craft elements in the new CBA that are supportive to small market Cdn teams. Then there is the sold out arena, ensuring that for 5-10 years, good but unpopular decisions can be made for the long term without affecting cash flow. Long-term contracts were signed with core players, which seemed expensive in the short term, but will be cheap in 3 years, leaving plenty of cap space for when it counts. When the time finally comes to spend big money to achieve a SC run, the vault will open, but, until then financial discipline will be the order of the day. (See also my comments in the Frolik thread).

2)Establish the Culture and Values
- There is not much doubt about Chipman’s core values—loyalty, decency, humility, community, hard work and achievement. He balked at naming the team the Jets until he found a way for that moniker to represent something larger than sports. Ladd exemplifies many of those values as captain. There is every reason to think they would then look for and engender them in the young players who will form the future core of the team. If you look at our 1st OA draft choices, they are all of a mold (I doubt Kane would have fit that mold).

3)Create Stability in Management –Chipman found a GM who he respects and who shares his values. For better or worse, he is giving him lots of time to execute a long term plan.
Here are some excerpts from the extension Chevy was given in Sept of last year:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...hboard/follows

“We couldn’t have a more capable guy leading our team for the long-term so we’ve extended Kevin back to his original term of five years,” Jets co-owner Mark Chipman told a news conference. “I believe he and his family are deserving of that and I also believe the fans of our organization are deserving of knowing where we’re going and how we’re going to get there.”
“I’ve known him for many, many years prior to bringing him on board, as a general manager over the course of many, many board meetings with the American Hockey League.
“I think over the past couple of years I’ve learned that we probably underestimated his abilities.”
The two clearly share the philosophy that the Jets have to build by retaining a core of strong players and adding talented draft picks.
During the off-season they signed everyone they said they wanted to keep to multi-year agreements, This year, some of their draft picks look like they have matured enough to join the team.
The Jets have added a few players outside the draft but there have been no blockbuster deals that had the potential to turn around their fortunes in the short term.
“I think the real challenge is to resist the opportunity to try and accelerate this at a great cost,” said Cheveldayoff, …
And, despite insisting Wednesday it is their expectation that they will make the playoffs, Chipman seemed in no rush to take action if that should not happen.
“This is going to be a difficult year and I think we’re all very aware of that,” he said.
“We’re going to be playing in a very difficult division and I think we all think our team is better. But I wouldn’t say that I could tell you 12 months from now that I’m any less convinced that we’re on the right path here.
“I think it will prove itself out over many years.”

Chipman chants the words many years like a mantra. The message is abundantly clear: this is a multi-year plan that will not be derailed by short term results. In fact, the 5-year clock for Chevy may have been reset last year, after the first 2 years of evaluation and lockout respectively. It is also clear that they feel their core is not too old to be wedded to the young stars.

4)Draft and Develop- The Jesuits have a maxim: show me the child till the age of 7 and I will show you the man. Loosely translated and applied to hockey, one could say, let me hand pick my 17 year old prospect, develop his skill and character over the critical early years, and I will show you a star who will be loyal to the team for years.
D & D does not have to mean drafting more players every year. It may mean
a) plowing maximum resources into scouting
b)carefully selecting the players who have the skill to succeed and personality to fit the team culture--even if that means defying conventional wisdom, and
c)carefully marshalling the players through their further development.
Just accumulating random numbers of draft choices is an uncertain business. It takes, on average, 8-10 low draft picks to produce 1 decent NHL player. Jets have had most of their success drafting in the first 3 rounds, so they may be exhaustively scouting and targeting their top 100 players, especially in the deepest drafts (2013, 2015) and giving themselves the option of trading some others for shorter term goals. (That does not explain Seto, who was a mistake, even by this measure).

5)Build Depth- The Jets inherited half a team from Atlanta,: 4 top-9 forwards, a few decent defencemen and—as it turned out--no goalie. THe others were either too old or too bad to keep.There are only 2 low-end prospects left from the Atlanta days. Even with excellent D&D, it would reasonably take 5 years to prime the pump and produce the necessary flow of players to fill the 7-9 player gap on the NHL team. So, extrapolating to 2016, one could envision the following drafted players completing the half-a team inherited from Atlanta:
Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Kosmachuk, Copp, Petan, Glover, and either Comrie or Helle.
(I have left out Burmi, Frolik, Hutchinson and Perreault, who were not D&D-ers)

6)Trade from Strength- Trades generally only work if there is enough organizational talent to replace the loss from within or there is an imminent loss of a valuable, but expendable asset. Within the next 12-18 months, ie, in the last stages of the 5ish year plan, it appears the Jets will finally be in that position.

7)Targeted UFAs only--The market for UFAs is highly inflated and they stay for only a year or two generally, so the only point in signing them is to push a team over the edge. They could have realized their playoff aspirations that with Jokinen in 2012/13 if he had played well and Pavs hadn’t sucked, but there is no point in paying big money unless the team has a targeted purpose for it.

8) Evaluate The Process Annually, the results will come later- The Process is perhaps the most maligned phrase in Chevyspeak. It is difficult for casual fans to accept that profit may not be realized in the early years of a business plan, even though internal growth is occurring. I have previously compared the Jets organic growth to biological development and anyone who has coached young boys knows that growth can occur late, suddenly, over a short period of time, and only when the time is right.
Unless the team implodes, Chipman will continue to judge Chevy based on the internal growth and development of the organization, not on team standings. He appears to be quite secure in his job until 2016/17 at the earliest. Until then, the blood lust of impatient fans will have to be satisfied on Boards and blogs alone.

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08-03-2014, 01:16 PM
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Guardian17
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Great article.

In contrast, here is a quote from Jay Feaster on what went wrong in Calgary where the ownership's mindset was make the playoffs at any cost.

There were two challenges when I took over as interim general manager [in 2010] and then when I was named general manager [from 2011-2013].

One was, as I used to put it, we were in “salary cap jail.”

We were a team that was spending to the upper limit of the cap.

There had been times prior to my arrival where the team had to play short because we didn’t have space to recall a player.

Even during the time when I was there we spent plenty of time in LTI (Long-Term Injury).

The other was because the team historically had a “let’s go for it mentally” and was always trying to be a playoff team.

As a result of that a lot of top-end draft picks had been traded away and the drafting hadn’t worked out in the past and so we had to re-stock the cupboards.


http://thefischlerreport.fanvsfan.co...job-tortorella

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08-03-2014, 01:23 PM
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Hunter368
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Good well thought out OP, we all know this is the plan but it's a good reminder. Still can be very frustrating to follow the process. Still disagree with the Pavs decision not to buy him out, that one still makes no sense.

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08-03-2014, 01:33 PM
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Gump Hasek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
In this summer of discontent, even our most optimistic and thoughtful posters have begun to express doubts about the direction and leadership of the organization. Does a plan even exist? Is the so-called 5 year plan a myth, a creation of the media, of Lawless, of aliens…?

(snip)

Unless the team implodes, Chipman will continue to judge Chevy based on the internal growth and development of the organization, not on team standings. He appears to be quite secure in his job until 2016/17 at the earliest. Until then, the blood lust of impatient fans will have to be satisfied on Boards and blogs alone.


Great post. It encapsulates my own thoughts. Many of the critics here seemingly wish to dismiss the Jets organizational planning prior to allowing for the maturity of the prospects they've drafted. It is fairly clear to me that management's plan is to build a team that is a perennial contender and they realize this requires time and some sacrifice over the interim.

It also seems to me that the whining from some is getting louder just as there is light appearing at the end of the tunnel. Prospect graduations will increase substantively over the coming 12 or 14 months. That won't necessarily equate to a Cup winning team, but it will fill much of the depth this team has been sadly lacking since day 1 and will also allow them to make other moves to fill any needs that remain.

Once again, well said, great post.


Last edited by YWGinYYZ: 08-03-2014 at 05:46 PM. Reason: Snipped quote of OP
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08-03-2014, 02:27 PM
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Hank Chinaski
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Very thoughtful post.

I don't really have disagreements with any of your points, save for one:

Quote:
5)Build Depth- The Jets inherited half a team from Atlanta,: 4 top-9 forwards, a few decent defencemen and—as it turned out--no goalie. THe others were either too old or too bad to keep.There are only 2 low-end prospects left from the Atlanta days. Even with excellent D&D, it would reasonably take 5 years to prime the pump and produce the necessary flow of players to fill the 7-9 player gap on the NHL team. So, extrapolating to 2016, one could envision the following drafted players completing the half-a team inherited from Atlanta:
Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Kosmachuk, Copp, Petan, Glover, and either Comrie or Helle.
(I have left out Burmi, Frolik, Hutchinson and Perreault, who were not D&D-ers)
I'm not going to say it's impossible that all of those players are NHL regulars by 2016, but it's exceedingly unlikely. I think a far more reasonable projection would be by 2018, and even then, odds are that one or two from that list will have busted.

Come 2018, only Bogosian and Wheeler will be under contract, and entering their final years. Now of course, it's probable that the Jets "older core" will have been parlayed into younger assets that can be used to build up the Jets for the future, and that would be great! What my central issue is, and always has been, is that the clock is ticking on the chance to get maximum return from those aforementioned older core players. In fact, I believe that process (a mini-rebuild, if you will) should have started last summer.

Now I'll go back to a quote from your post:

Quote:
The two clearly share the philosophy that the Jets have to build by retaining a core of strong players and adding talented draft picks.
Historically, this is no way to build a cup team. However, it can be a good philosophy if you're fine with just getting your team to the playoffs. The problem is that Chevy has made it a longshot to do even that, through his combination of inactivity on the trade and UFA market, in addition to his bizarre decision to stick with Pavelec.

I would be thrilled if I was eating crow on this, but I don't see the Jets current model as one that will bring long-term success. I believe that come 2016-17, there's a chance Scheifele, Trouba, Ehlers, Morrissey, etc. will form a "young core" that is equal in ability to our "old core" of Little, Wheeler, Enstrom, etc. In that case, I believe the Jets will be a legitimate playoff team, albeit one that won't seriously contend.

Nevertheless, it's nice to read an optimistic take on things for a change.

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08-03-2014, 02:46 PM
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I'd be more interested in specifics rather than feel good stuff about character and decency and a fervent insistence that little to no movement in regard to buyouts, free agency and trades is actually a master plan that will reap dividends. Considering maximum scouting - are we putting tons of resources into that or are we around the average of the league? Got any numbers? I think you overplay team culture and it sounds like you easily excuse management for not accumulating picks or trading picks for short term goals and you glide past the whole pavs issue.

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08-03-2014, 02:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angrymnky View Post
I'd be more interested in specifics rather than feel good stuff about character and decency and a fervent insistence that little to no movement in regard to buyouts, free agency and trades is actually a master plan that will reap dividends. Considering maximum scouting - are we putting tons of resources into that or are we around the average of the league? Got any numbers? I think you overplay team culture and it sounds like you easily excuse management for not accumulating picks or trading picks for short term goals and you glide past the whole pavs issue.
Someone discussed this in a different thread - the Jets have added considerably to the scouting staff. Where do they sit in relation to other teams? Exercise for the reader - let us know what you find.

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08-03-2014, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
It also seems to me that the whining from some is getting louder just as there is light appearing at the end of the tunnel. Prospect graduations will increase substantively over the coming 12 or 14 months. That won't necessarily equate to a Cup winning team, but it will fill much of the depth this team has been sadly lacking since day 1 and will also allow them to make other moves to fill any needs that remain.

Once again, well said, great post.
Agreed, Gump. I think that maybe one of the reasons we signed so flipping many bottom 6ers to one year contracts this offseason is that management is expecting some prospects to make the jump. Next year Slater, Halischuk, Galiardi, Tangradi, Peluso, Postma, Pardy, and Ellerby all have their contracts expire (didn't include Frolik, as he's clearly a different tier than those mentioned). I certainly expect that at the very least one of Lowry, Kosmo, Morrissey, Ehlers, Copp will be able to step in to replace and upgrade those positions. Hopefully, that's what management is planning for and we can actually see some overturn of talent.

Next year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by angrymnky View Post
I'd be more interested in specifics rather than feel good stuff about character and decency and a fervent insistence that little to no movement in regard to buyouts, free agency and trades is actually a master plan that will reap dividends. Considering maximum scouting - are we putting tons of resources into that or are we around the average of the league? Got any numbers? I think you overplay team culture and it sounds like you easily excuse management for not accumulating picks or trading picks for short term goals and you glide past the whole pavs issue.
I think the Pavs issue goes back to the culture that scelaton talked about. "loyalty, decency, humility, community, hard work and achievement." While Pavelec certainly has fallen short in the achievement category (and likely the hard work category), it's no reason for the management team to re-neg on their own loyalty part of the deal. They signed the contract, so they will play it out.

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08-03-2014, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
In this summer of discontent, even our most optimistic and thoughtful posters have begun to express doubts about the direction and leadership of the organization. Does a plan even exist? Is the so-called 5 year plan a myth, a creation of the media, of Lawless, of aliens…?

(snip)

Unless the team implodes, Chipman will continue to judge Chevy based on the internal growth and development of the organization, not on team standings. He appears to be quite secure in his job until 2016/17 at the earliest. Until then, the blood lust of impatient fans will have to be satisfied on Boards and blogs alone.
Terrific article and thank you for taking the time to gather the information and quotes you did and to present them in such a clear fashion .

What you have said isn't new to many of us , but it needed to be detailed in this manner imo .

There are a couple threads here looking towards this time next year , and a few detractors have mentioned that by doing so , or looking at the picture at that point , perhaps they have been too quick to be so critical.

Every organization will make mistakes , and we all have to accept that , one point for me , is that I am uneasy with the Frolik situation at present. It may resolve itself but I don't like that it hasn't to date . For me , he is an integral piece or should be counted on for that going forward and would really cement a lot of this together imo . I detailed that in another thread so I wont do that here , but if we do indeed retain him I really feel where we would be in October 2015 would be a very positive position with depth and options to finally make decisions and build from a position of strength .

One more thing , we were always told it was going to more than less be this way , so while we all want things to be better sooner and certainly want to make the playoffs , I for one am happy we aren't bouncing from one direction to another because of the pressures to appease anyone.

Great post.


Last edited by YWGinYYZ: 08-03-2014 at 05:45 PM. Reason: Snipped quote of OP
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08-03-2014, 05:11 PM
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I agree with the plan and I agree with what the Jets plan to do and how to achieve it. But you MUST also be able to adjust that plan and be flexible if a specific piece of the puzzle is going to derail your long term goals. You may do something you thought was a good idea at the time, but may soon find out it was the wrong thing to do. Fine, we all make mistakes, but just because you have a plan, doesn't mean you have to stick to it in absolute, when something goes wrong. You need to be willing to make the hard call when required.

Saying that management has an immediate problem, for example in Pavs, that needs to be dealt with sooner than later is not being impatient to the process IMO. Dealing with Pavs this past summer would have been taking the necessary step to put the plan back on track. Keeping Pavs for the next 3 seasons could potentially hurt the next 3 seasons of all the other players careers and the overall goal of the organization.

As well, keeping him may show loyalty to a player because you signed a contract with him, but remember, this player and his agent did not show honesty to the organization when he decided to take TNSE's money.

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08-03-2014, 05:13 PM
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jetkarma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Someone discussed this in a different thread - the Jets have added considerably to the scouting staff. Where do they sit in relation to other teams? Exercise for the reader - let us know what you find.
During the lockout many teams cut their scouting budget and trimmed positions. Chipman stated they viewed scouting as an investment and not an expense , and upped their commitment and added personnel . Chevy especially made a point of seeing more games and prospects because of the available time that presented itself.

There was a comment/quote that perhaps the Jets weren't spending the most ( dollars , time , people )however no one was spending more. I think that summarizes the level we are at and despite it being said that it is virtually the same scouting staff and direction from Atlanta , that clearly is not correct.

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08-03-2014, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
In this summer of discontent, even our most optimistic and thoughtful posters have begun to express doubts about the direction and leadership of the organization. Does a plan even exist? Is the so-called 5 year plan a myth, a creation of the media, of Lawless, of aliens…?

(snip)

Unless the team implodes, Chipman will continue to judge Chevy based on the internal growth and development of the organization, not on team standings. He appears to be quite secure in his job until 2016/17 at the earliest. Until then, the blood lust of impatient fans will have to be satisfied on Boards and blogs alone.
Love this... We live in an instant gratification world, but to execute a plan, patience is a necessity, not an option. There will probably still be a lot of hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth from the blogosphere this year, but next year we will start to hit pay-dirt, and by 17/18 we will have the pieces for success in place, and it will just be a matter of execution. The SC is still arguably the most difficult prize in sport!


Last edited by YWGinYYZ: 08-03-2014 at 05:46 PM. Reason: Snipped quote of OP
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08-03-2014, 05:44 PM
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Hey y'all: can I ask a favour? If you're going to quote the original post, can you cut it down to a snippet?

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08-03-2014, 05:57 PM
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Well articulated view from the 'other side'. I tend to be of the view point Hank expresses here, but I think you make some fair points.

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08-03-2014, 06:36 PM
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It's a vague plan, mostly unsupported by actions, with potential for major setbacks over the next couple of years. Ladd, Byfuglien, and Frolik appear destined to test UFA or be traded as rentals. A decision on Kane will likely have to be made within the same time frame.

The only strategic play Chevy has made thus far is his pitch for long-term job security.

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08-03-2014, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by StronGeer View Post
Agreed, Gump. I think that maybe one of the reasons we signed so flipping many bottom 6ers to one year contracts this offseason is that management is expecting some prospects to make the jump. Next year Slater, Halischuk, Galiardi, Tangradi, Peluso, Postma, Pardy, and Ellerby all have their contracts expire (didn't include Frolik, as he's clearly a different tier than those mentioned). I certainly expect that at the very least one of Lowry, Kosmo, Morrissey, Ehlers, Copp will be able to step in to replace and upgrade those positions. Hopefully, that's what management is planning for and we can actually see some overturn of talent.

Next year.


I think the Pavs issue goes back to the culture that scelaton talked about. "loyalty, decency, humility, community, hard work and achievement." While Pavelec certainly has fallen short in the achievement category (and likely the hard work category), it's no reason for the management team to re-neg on their own loyalty part of the deal. They signed the contract, so they will play it out.
Pavelec failing to uphold his end of the bargain certainly IS reason for management not to stick to their end. Playing out the contract is simply bizarre! There are no other moderately polite words to describe it. TNSE in general and Chevy in particular has obligations under those 'core values' to the fans and community and also to ALL the rest of the players. Is it upholding 'loyalty' to deny players the opportunity to participate in the playoffs and to compete for the cup? Sticking with Pavelec cannot be justified as some kind of twisted honour fulfillment.

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08-03-2014, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Pavelec failing to uphold his end of the bargain certainly IS reason for management not to stick to their end. Playing out the contract is simply bizarre! There are no other moderately polite words to describe it. TNSE in general and Chevy in particular has obligations under those 'core values' to the fans and community and also to ALL the rest of the players. Is it upholding 'loyalty' to deny players the opportunity to participate in the playoffs and to compete for the cup? Sticking with Pavelec cannot be justified as some kind of twisted honour fulfillment.
I'm sure it's at least part of the equation. Chipman said something to the effect of "this team will never buy out a player." I believe him.

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08-03-2014, 08:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
In this summer of discontent, even our most optimistic and thoughtful posters have begun to express doubts about the direction and leadership of the organization. Does a plan even exist? Is the so-called 5 year plan a myth, a creation of the media, of Lawless, of aliens…?

I have no personal knowledge of the inner workings of TNSE, but am familiar with strategic planning and certain that TNSE has a multi-year plan to achieve their goals. That’s what good organizations do. I also have strong sense of what the components of that plan might be, both from available evidence and public statements. So, without claiming that this is THE plan or even a good plan, I am presenting the components of a semi-chronological, plausible multi-year plan. Whether you agree or not, it should give some comfort and encouragement to those who feel the team is flailing around blindly.

1)Secure a stable financial environment
- It all starts with money. In partnering with David Thomson, Chipman ensured we have one of the most financially stable ownership groups in hockey. Chipman also become a trusted ally of Bettman and helped craft elements in the new CBA that are supportive to small market Cdn teams. Then there is the sold out arena, ensuring that for 5-10 years, good but unpopular decisions can be made for the long term without affecting cash flow. Long-term contracts were signed with core players, which seemed expensive in the short term, but will be cheap in 3 years, leaving plenty of cap space for when it counts. When the time finally comes to spend big money to achieve a SC run, the vault will open, but, until then financial discipline will be the order of the day. (See also my comments in the Frolik thread).

2)Establish the Culture and Values
- There is not much doubt about Chipman’s core values—loyalty, decency, humility, community, hard work and achievement. He balked at naming the team the Jets until he found a way for that moniker to represent something larger than sports. Ladd exemplifies many of those values as captain. There is every reason to think they would then look for and engender them in the young players who will form the future core of the team. If you look at our 1st OA draft choices, they are all of a mold (I doubt Kane would have fit that mold).

3)Create Stability in Management –Chipman found a GM who he respects and who shares his values. For better or worse, he is giving him lots of time to execute a long term plan.
Here are some excerpts from the extension Chevy was given in Sept of last year:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...hboard/follows

“We couldn’t have a more capable guy leading our team for the long-term so we’ve extended Kevin back to his original term of five years,” Jets co-owner Mark Chipman told a news conference. “I believe he and his family are deserving of that and I also believe the fans of our organization are deserving of knowing where we’re going and how we’re going to get there.”
“I’ve known him for many, many years prior to bringing him on board, as a general manager over the course of many, many board meetings with the American Hockey League.
“I think over the past couple of years I’ve learned that we probably underestimated his abilities.”
The two clearly share the philosophy that the Jets have to build by retaining a core of strong players and adding talented draft picks.
During the off-season they signed everyone they said they wanted to keep to multi-year agreements, This year, some of their draft picks look like they have matured enough to join the team.
The Jets have added a few players outside the draft but there have been no blockbuster deals that had the potential to turn around their fortunes in the short term.
“I think the real challenge is to resist the opportunity to try and accelerate this at a great cost,” said Cheveldayoff, …
And, despite insisting Wednesday it is their expectation that they will make the playoffs, Chipman seemed in no rush to take action if that should not happen.
“This is going to be a difficult year and I think we’re all very aware of that,” he said.
“We’re going to be playing in a very difficult division and I think we all think our team is better. But I wouldn’t say that I could tell you 12 months from now that I’m any less convinced that we’re on the right path here.
“I think it will prove itself out over many years.”

Chipman chants the words many years like a mantra. The message is abundantly clear: this is a multi-year plan that will not be derailed by short term results. In fact, the 5-year clock for Chevy may have been reset last year, after the first 2 years of evaluation and lockout respectively. It is also clear that they feel their core is not too old to be wedded to the young stars.

4)Draft and Develop- The Jesuits have a maxim: show me the child till the age of 7 and I will show you the man. Loosely translated and applied to hockey, one could say, let me hand pick my 17 year old prospect, develop his skill and character over the critical early years, and I will show you a star who will be loyal to the team for years.
D & D does not have to mean drafting more players every year. It may mean
a) plowing maximum resources into scouting
b)carefully selecting the players who have the skill to succeed and personality to fit the team culture--even if that means defying conventional wisdom, and
c)carefully marshalling the players through their further development.
Just accumulating random numbers of draft choices is an uncertain business. It takes, on average, 8-10 low draft picks to produce 1 decent NHL player. Jets have had most of their success drafting in the first 3 rounds, so they may be exhaustively scouting and targeting their top 100 players, especially in the deepest drafts (2013, 2015) and giving themselves the option of trading some others for shorter term goals. (That does not explain Seto, who was a mistake, even by this measure).

5)Build Depth- The Jets inherited half a team from Atlanta,: 4 top-9 forwards, a few decent defencemen and—as it turned out--no goalie. THe others were either too old or too bad to keep.There are only 2 low-end prospects left from the Atlanta days. Even with excellent D&D, it would reasonably take 5 years to prime the pump and produce the necessary flow of players to fill the 7-9 player gap on the NHL team. So, extrapolating to 2016, one could envision the following drafted players completing the half-a team inherited from Atlanta:
Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Kosmachuk, Copp, Petan, Glover, and either Comrie or Helle.
(I have left out Burmi, Frolik, Hutchinson and Perreault, who were not D&D-ers)

6)Trade from Strength- Trades generally only work if there is enough organizational talent to replace the loss from within or there is an imminent loss of a valuable, but expendable asset. Within the next 12-18 months, ie, in the last stages of the 5ish year plan, it appears the Jets will finally be in that position.

7)Targeted UFAs only--The market for UFAs is highly inflated and they stay for only a year or two generally, so the only point in signing them is to push a team over the edge. They could have realized their playoff aspirations that with Jokinen in 2012/13 if he had played well and Pavs hadn’t sucked, but there is no point in paying big money unless the team has a targeted purpose for it.

8) Evaluate The Process Annually, the results will come later- The Process is perhaps the most maligned phrase in Chevyspeak. It is difficult for casual fans to accept that profit may not be realized in the early years of a business plan, even though internal growth is occurring. I have previously compared the Jets organic growth to biological development and anyone who has coached young boys knows that growth can occur late, suddenly, over a short period of time, and only when the time is right.
Unless the team implodes, Chipman will continue to judge Chevy based on the internal growth and development of the organization, not on team standings. He appears to be quite secure in his job until 2016/17 at the earliest. Until then, the blood lust of impatient fans will have to be satisfied on Boards and blogs alone.
As someone who has also studied strategic planning I wanted to give you a big thumbs up on this post. I you have done a great job capturing many of the key elements. Your thought process aligns closely with mine with regards to the team. Mistakes have been made but I like what they are doing from a internal culture/grass roots development standpoint.

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08-03-2014, 08:38 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by StronGeer View Post
I'm sure it's at least part of the equation. Chipman said something to the effect of "this team will never buy out a player." I believe him.
Ahem... I see the quotation marks, but the "something to the effect of" part is suspect. Is there an actual quote attributable to Chipman?

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08-03-2014, 10:00 PM
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One thing Jet management is missing is the "killer instinct". They had a way out of the Pavelec problem and blinked. What will happen next? In a couple years, will they play everybody's favourite vet over a more deserving young player in a key game? Where does it end?

Every new management team has a "5 year plan". IMO this is as much a cliche as "one game at a time".

The fact is management went "all in" with a core of so-so players. Though not a bad idea, there was no foundation for a belief that this would produce a contender wihin 5 years.

They have swapped some lower round picks and acquired some in other deals. The picks acquired and picks traded basically offset. This is not a "D&D" model. It is a stand pat and pray we get lucky at the draft model.

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08-03-2014, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Hey y'all: can I ask a favour? If you're going to quote the original post, can you cut it down to a snippet?
Seriously guys, this thread was absolutely impossible to read on my phone.

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08-04-2014, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
The Jets inherited half a team from Atlanta
I enjoyed your post. Thank you.

I am not trying to nit pick, but I do think that we need to stop hiding behind the part that I quoted. If we compare the last couple of years in Atlanta to our team three years running now, we look a lot a like in terms of performance.

Atlanta 2009 - 10 83 points
Atlanta 2010 - 11 80 points
Wpg 2011 - 12 84 points
Wpg 2012 - 13 51 points (shortened season)
Wpg 2013 - 14 84 points

So three years in as the Jets, we are one overtime loss better than the second last year in Atlanta and we are two wins better than the last year in Atlanta.

My point is not that Atlanta wasn't a poor team. My point is that if Atlanta was a poor team, then we still have a poor team now three years in, based upon the record. And lets face it, we are only as good as our record.

And right now, we are icing basically the same team this fall other than a tweak on 3rd and 4th lines.

I am frustrated because it seems like two simple moves could make this team so much better.

1. Almost any NHL goaltender - many moved this summer. We stood still. We are putting too much on Hutch - it is too early for us to expect that he can become the starter before Pavs blows the season again
2. A strong winger to upgrade Seto. We would have three lines that could all score.

These two moves should have been easy for our Jets management and these moves do not have to compromise any five year or long term plan. These kinds of players have been moving this summer.

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08-04-2014, 08:46 AM
  #23
StefanW
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Originally Posted by Hollywood3 View Post
One thing Jet management is missing is the "killer instinct". They had a way out of the Pavelec problem and blinked. What will happen next? In a couple years, will they play everybody's favourite vet over a more deserving young player in a key game? Where does it end?

Every new management team has a "5 year plan". IMO this is as much a cliche as "one game at a time".

The fact is management went "all in" with a core of so-so players. Though not a bad idea, there was no foundation for a belief that this would produce a contender wihin 5 years.

They have swapped some lower round picks and acquired some in other deals. The picks acquired and picks traded basically offset. This is not a "D&D" model. It is a stand pat and pray we get lucky at the draft model.
I'm missing what you mean when you say the team lacks "killer instinct." If you mean the team should have made trades to get them into a playoff spot, that is really unlikely. A team has to build up depth in order for trades to be successful. Other teams don't line up to get older players with limited usefulness. If you want a player to push you over the top now, you generally have to give up a young player who is likely to become very good later. So players like Trouba, Kane, and Sheifele will net a good return, but losing those players hurts the team badly in the long run. There is simply no point to making trades until you have tons of organizational depth in a particular position, otherwise you are borrowing from Peter to pay Paul.

When I look at this team I see a development system that is not even in the same universe as what came over from Atlanta. The cupboards were pretty much bare, and the Jets were, for all intents and purposes, a team with expansion (i.e. no) depth. The Ice Caps made it to the finals this past year, which is a pretty good indication of just how good the development system has worked. It takes time to turn 18 year olds into NHL regulars making an impact, so it is exceptionally unrealistic to expect even the best development system to turn the former Atlanta team into a playoff contender in three seasons.

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08-04-2014, 09:43 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by StefanW View Post
I'm missing what you mean when you say the team lacks "killer instinct." If you mean the team should have made trades to get them into a playoff spot, that is really unlikely. A team has to build up depth in order for trades to be successful. Other teams don't line up to get older players with limited usefulness. If you want a player to push you over the top now, you generally have to give up a young player who is likely to become very good later. So players like Trouba, Kane, and Sheifele will net a good return, but losing those players hurts the team badly in the long run. There is simply no point to making trades until you have tons of organizational depth in a particular position, otherwise you are borrowing from Peter to pay Paul.

When I look at this team I see a development system that is not even in the same universe as what came over from Atlanta. The cupboards were pretty much bare, and the Jets were, for all intents and purposes, a team with expansion (i.e. no) depth. The Ice Caps made it to the finals this past year, which is a pretty good indication of just how good the development system has worked. It takes time to turn 18 year olds into NHL regulars making an impact, so it is exceptionally unrealistic to expect even the best development system to turn the former Atlanta team into a playoff contender in three seasons.
Hollywoods reference was crystal clear Stefan, the failure to address the Pavs debacle.

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08-04-2014, 09:53 AM
  #25
StefanW
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Hollywoods reference was crystal clear Stefan, the failure to address the Pavs debacle.
That may be it, but I do not believe it is "crystal clear." He references the Pavlec stuff and playing vets over young players in the same sentence right after the "lacks killer instinct" comment. Pavs is not the only vet on the team. He then reference how there is no guarantee that 5 year plans produce results, which could be taken to mean that you have to explore the trade and UFA market. In fact that is the only thing it can mean. He ends with criticizing what he refers to "stand pat and pray", which supports the idea that he could have been talking about making trades or adding more UFAs.

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