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A Five Year (or so) Plan

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Old
08-04-2014, 12:52 PM
  #26
ps241
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Originally Posted by Hollywood3 View Post
One thing Jet management is missing is the "killer instinct". They had a way out of the Pavelec problem and blinked. What will happen next? .

To me this is pretty clear. The debate expands to what other implications may come from the fruit of the poisen tree (lack of killer instinct). It is what it is I guess but I think it is a very fair question to ask.

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08-04-2014, 03:17 PM
  #27
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The whole 5 year plan thing is convenient and all ... when the team arrived it was all about how we inherited a talented group at the right age that Chevy believed in, that we could build a winner around, which was so much better than if we had have gotten Phoenix etc etc.

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08-04-2014, 04:24 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by GrandChelems View Post
The whole 5 year plan thing is convenient and all ... when the team arrived it was all about how we inherited a talented group at the right age that Chevy believed in, that we could build a winner around, which was so much better than if we had have gotten Phoenix etc etc.
Talented group? Who said that, we sucked, we all knew that. Sure we had a few talented players but our team looked more like a AHL team than a NHL team. Look I'm as frustrated as the next guy with the slow progress, which I think could have been sped up but hasn't been.....but the team we inherited was brutal.

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08-04-2014, 06:21 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
To me this is pretty clear. The debate expands to what other implications may come from the fruit of the poisen tree (lack of killer instinct). It is what it is I guess but I think it is a very fair question to ask.
Yes, this is what was meant re: "killer instinct". Look at Lou in NJ. He got Schneider to replace Brodeur. Some teams might not have done this. The Jets had a gift-wrapped chance to dump a bad contract and blinked. Maybe a few years down the road they'll keep a past-his-prime vet over a rising youngster just to "show loyalty".

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08-04-2014, 06:22 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Hunter368 View Post
Talented group? Who said that, we sucked, we all knew that. Sure we had a few talented players but our team looked more like a AHL team than a NHL team. Look I'm as frustrated as the next guy with the slow progress, which I think could have been sped up but hasn't been.....but the team we inherited was brutal.
When the Phoenix/Atlanta debate was on the prevailing view was that Atlanta was a better fit because of the number of young players. I was not really on board with this, but so what.

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08-04-2014, 07:02 PM
  #31
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I agree with not getting rid of Pavelec.

The Flames are in their current predicament because they were too loyal to their players.

Guys like Iginla, Regehr even Kiprosoff should have been traded much earlier to restock their organization.

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08-04-2014, 08:06 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Guardian17 View Post
I agree with not getting rid of Pavelec.

The Flames are in their current predicament because they were too loyal to their players.

Guys like Iginla, Regehr even Kiprosoff should have been traded much earlier to restock their organization.
Yea that is one of the fears I have. Our organizational health and future ride on two key factors and then lots of supporting elements.

1) Drafting in the range between "much better than average to elite" (#4 in the OP)

2) Being able to transition assets at the right time.


If we do #1 at an elite level we will be good. If not then we better not "blink too often" (Flames style) at #2.

I do like the OP and enjoy the upbeat reset button back to the summer of 2011 but for now I will have to see how we draft outside the 1st round. I am with Hank in the sense that I don't think the current plan as laid out in the OP has historically yielded long term success and I am not sure that it deals with the reality of how brutal and competitive the NHL is. I am very concerned about the throughput levels needed from our drafted assets. I also get a sinking feeling we are going to struggle parting with the older core in a timely manner.

Man do I want to be wrong!


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08-04-2014, 09:54 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Yea that is one of the fears I have. Our organizational health and future ride on two key factors and then lots of supporting elements.

1) Drafting in the range between "much better than average to elite" (#4 in the OP)

2) Being able to transition assets at the right time.


If we do #1 at an elite level we will be good. If not then we better not "blink too often" (Flames style) at #2.

I do like the OP and enjoy the upbeat reset button back to the summer of 2011 but for now I will have to see how we draft outside the 1st round. I am with Hank in the sense that I don't think the current plan as laid out in the OP has historically yielded long term success and I am not sure that it deals with the reality of how brutal and competitive the NHL is. I am very concerned about the throughput levels needed from our drafted assets. I also get a sinking feeling we are going to struggle parting with the older core in a timely manner.

Man do I want to be wrong!
Well, the good news is that you're wrong most of the time
I have said on numerous occasions that I think Ladd needs to get moved sooner rather than later. I get chastised quite a bit for saying that, people say it's bad business to move a captain, he's an important player, etc. But I think the best time to move him is now, as his value will not be any higher. I really agree with you that some of the core need to go soon, and I think that means Ladd, Buff and Pavs. I would keep Wheels and Little around and Im still on the fence about Bogo and Enstrom. Im not sure what Ladd would fetch on the trade market but I think it would be a good return right now, far better than in the future. But I think you nailed it when you say that TN may have a hard time parting ways with them, Chipman's too loyal to trade away his captain.
If they decide to keep Ladd for the long term Im fine with that too, but I think moving him would also allow Kane to step into a top LW role. Anyway, just food for thought.

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08-05-2014, 12:55 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Hollywood3 View Post
Maybe a few years down the road they'll keep a past-his-prime vet over a rising youngster just to "show loyalty".
Why wait until the future when you have Thorburn?

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08-05-2014, 03:30 AM
  #35
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Thanks to all for the feedback. Let me respond to a couple of key concerns:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
I'm not going to say it's impossible that all of those players are NHL regulars by 2016, but it's exceedingly unlikely. I think a far more reasonable projection would be by 2018, and even then, odds are that one or two from that list will have busted.
My point was that I didn't think it unreasonable to expect that the 7-9 players needed to augment the 'half-a-team' inherited from Atlanta would be in place by 2016/17:
-Scheifele and Trouba are already in
-Morrissey and Ehlers are very high probability (>80% IMO)
-Hutchinson, Frolik (or equivalent) and Perreaut are solid non-drafted additions to the old Atlanta roster
-Of the highly rated prospects (Petan, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Hellebyuck, Comrie, Glover, Copp) 3 will have already had >/= 2 years of AHL experience and only 1 or 2 need to succeed to round out the roster. Less certain but still possible additions could include Burmi, our 2015 ist rounder and players via UFA/trade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
What my central issue is, and always has been, is that the clock is ticking on the chance to get maximum return from those aforementioned older core players. In fact, I believe that process (a mini-rebuild, if you will) should have started last summer.
Historically, this is no way to build a cup team. However, it can be a good philosophy if you're fine with just getting your team to the playoffs.....
I would be thrilled if I was eating crow on this, but I don't see the Jets current model as one that will bring long-term success...
I don't hear the clock ticking quite as loudly. The Jets have a very young team. Compare them to the Kings who had ~10 players on their roster this year aged 29-36, including some key cogs.
In 2016/17, say we keep LLW but trade Buff +/- Enstrom for youth, we will still have a very young team with an age span that is not as wide as LA's is currently.
(I have also responded to the central issue in your post below, along with ps241's concerns)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
I am with Hank in the sense that I don't think the current plan as laid out in the OP has historically yielded long term success and I am not sure that it deals with the reality of how brutal and competitive the NHL is. I am very concerned about the throughput levels needed from our drafted assets. I also get a sinking feeling we are going to struggle parting with the older core in a timely manner.
Man do I want to be wrong!
ps241, please keep in mind the primary purpose of the OP was to show that there almost certainly is a coherent LT plan of this nature, not necessarily to endorse it (tho my sympathies probably show). Your and Hank's (and Holden's) references to an aging core and narrow window of opportunity seem to have gained traction as the team struggles, but I remain unconvinced it's that narrow. OTOH, your point about the brutally competitive nature of the NHL is certainly true. However, it can be argued that for that very reason it makes no sense to follow the crowd or conventional wisdom. TNSE have instead apparently chosen a strategy that reflects their values, utilizes their organizational strengths and builds their team in a stepwise fashion. I attempted to articulate that strategy as it made sense to me, but seemed less apparent to others. If they are no further ahead in 2-3 years they will no doubt reconsider and change course, but it would be foolhardy to do so at this critical stage of development.
The big-picture time horizon for TNSE is in decades. Lots of opportunities for success will present themselves in the future, even if their foray with Chevy is unsuccessful. In the short term, it makes sense to let the plan play out over 2-3 years and give it an opportunity to reach its potential.

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08-05-2014, 07:46 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
Thanks to all for the feedback. Let me respond to a couple of key concerns:


My point was that I didn't think it unreasonable to expect that the 7-9 players needed to augment the 'half-a-team' inherited from Atlanta would be in place by 2016/17:
-Scheifele and Trouba are already in
-Morrissey and Ehlers are very high probability (>80% IMO)
-Hutchinson, Frolik (or equivalent) and Perreaut are solid non-drafted additions to the old Atlanta roster
-Of the highly rated prospects (Petan, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Hellebyuck, Comrie, Glover, Copp) 3 will have already had >/= 2 years of AHL experience and only 1 or 2 need to succeed to round out the roster. Less certain but still possible additions could include Burmi, our 2015 ist rounder and players via UFA/trade.


I don't hear the clock ticking quite as loudly. The Jets have a very young team. Compare them to the Kings who had ~10 players on their roster this year aged 29-36, including some key cogs.
In 2016/17, say we keep LLW but trade Buff +/- Enstrom for youth, we will still have a very young team with an age span that is not as wide as LA's is currently.
(I have also responded to the central issue in your post below, along with ps241's concerns)


ps241, please keep in mind the primary purpose of the OP was to show that there almost certainly is a coherent LT plan of this nature, not necessarily to endorse it (tho my sympathies probably show). Your and Hank's (and Holden's) references to an aging core and narrow window of opportunity seem to have gained traction as the team struggles, but I remain unconvinced it's that narrow. OTOH, your point about the brutally competitive nature of the NHL is certainly true. However, it can be argued that for that very reason it makes no sense to follow the crowd or conventional wisdom. TNSE have instead apparently chosen a strategy that reflects their values, utilizes their organizational strengths and builds their team in a stepwise fashion. I attempted to articulate that strategy as it made sense to me, but seemed less apparent to others. If they are no further ahead in 2-3 years they will no doubt reconsider and change course, but it would be foolhardy to do so at this critical stage of development.
The big-picture time horizon for TNSE is in decades. Lots of opportunities for success will present themselves in the future, even if their foray with Chevy is unsuccessful. In the short term, it makes sense to let the plan play out over 2-3 years and give it an opportunity to reach its potential.
As I see it there are 2 main problems trying to marry the older core with the younger core coming up. First IMO the older core just isn't good enough to be the backbone of a contender and they lack the 2 most important pieces. A true #1 center and a true #1 d-man. They have been together since the Atlanta years and have yet to even seriously challenge for a playoff spot. The second problem is how the Jets will allocated available salary resources. Both Ladd and Buff will be in their last year before UFA status after next season and will be in line for their "career" contracts. Together you are easily looking north of $12 M per, and both will be looking for long terms with control over movement. Now you are forced to trying to contend with that group supported by the best of the young guys coming up, while hampering the $ available to start signing them long term.

IMO the organization in the long term would be much better off by starting to transition out the older core when the still have high value in exchange for equal value in young players/prospects/picks to better mesh with the next generation of core players.

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08-05-2014, 08:15 AM
  #37
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I'm all for the 5 year plan but the JETS simply weren't that far from being a play-off team that some posters and media scribes have suggested. Having an average NHL starting goaltender would have seen the Jets make the play-offs last season. Staying loyal to Pavelec is something I just can't wrap my head around. Somehow the Coyotes had the guts and will spend 12M to buyout Riberio. But I guess in the long run, Glendale City Council will pay the freight on that bill.

I like the addition of Perrault to the lineup but it's not enough. Why or how Chevy hasn't managed to pull the trigger on single NHL player for NHL player trade in over 3 years remains a mystery. With every other team in our division making in some cases dramatic improvements over the last season, I fear the Jets have fallen further behind them.

The prospect of a full season with a healthy LLF & KSW gives me hope. But I would really have had more confidence if Monty & Hutch were our tandem heading into this season.

I believe in a year or two Pavelec will just be a distant memory as the 6'4 - 200 pound monster known as CONNOR HELLEBUYCK will be the goalie we've all been waiting for

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08-05-2014, 08:33 AM
  #38
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I'm all for the 5 year plan but the JETS simply weren't that far from being a play-off team that some posters and media scribes have suggested. Having an average NHL starting goaltender would have seen the Jets make the play-offs last season. Staying loyal to Pavelec is something I just can't wrap my head around.
The really sad part is... Having average NHL goaltending might have got us in the playoffs in all 3 seasons, but for some reason Jets management can't see this. But what do I know....

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08-08-2014, 01:19 PM
  #39
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In this summer of discontent, even our most optimistic and thoughtful posters have begun to express doubts about the direction and leadership of the organization. Does a plan even exist? Is the so-called 5 year plan a myth, a creation of the media, of Lawless, of aliens…?

(snip)

Unless the team implodes, Chipman will continue to judge Chevy based on the internal growth and development of the organization, not on team standings. He appears to be quite secure in his job until 2016/17 at the earliest. Until then, the blood lust of impatient fans will have to be satisfied on Boards and blogs alone.
Somehow I missed this thread amid the morass of negativity that is HFJets. I'd just like to say that the OP is a breath of fresh air and a fantastic post! [mod]


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08-08-2014, 03:54 PM
  #40
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Somehow I missed this thread amid the morass of negativity that is HFJets. I'd just like to say that the OP is a breath of fresh air and a fantastic post! [mod]
Hey, there was another sunshine-and-lollipops thread back in June I think...

But I dunno...this is just putting the current situation in the best light possible.

It's true that the finances of the team are secure - though the citizens of the province have provided most of the security through subsidies, casinos, tax breaks and long term ticket commitments. And this was mainly taken care of before the first puck was dropped 3 years ago.

Most of the other stuff written by the OP is pollyanna-ish spin. For me, it's easier to believe that the organization is inexperienced, indecisive, overly cautious and has made a series of unforced errors than to believe that what they're doing (or not doing) is some diabolical master plan that my poor mortal mind can't fathom.

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08-09-2014, 12:12 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Hey, there was another sunshine-and-lollipops thread back in June I think...

But I dunno...this is just putting the current situation in the best light possible.

It's true that the finances of the team are secure - though the citizens of the province have provided most of the security through subsidies, casinos, tax breaks and long term ticket commitments. And this was mainly taken care of before the first puck was dropped 3 years ago.

Most of the other stuff written by the OP is pollyanna-ish spin. For me, it's easier to believe that the organization is inexperienced, indecisive, overly cautious and has made a series of unforced errors than to believe that what they're doing (or not doing) is some diabolical master plan that my poor mortal mind can't fathom.
If the Jets miss the playoffs again then we can expect a "Rainbows and Unicorns" theme for season 5. The pre-game light show will have rainbow colours with faux pixie dust, and the video screen will show Pavs riding a unicorn and making saves while playing a lute.

It's a process ....

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08-09-2014, 12:47 AM
  #42
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If the Jets miss the playoffs again then we can expect a "Rainbows and Unicorns" theme for season 5. The pre-game light show will have rainbow colours with faux pixie dust, and the video screen will show Pavs riding a unicorn and making saves while playing a lute.

It's a process ....



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08-09-2014, 01:05 AM
  #43
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If the Jets miss the playoffs again then we can expect a "Rainbows and Unicorns" theme for season 5. The pre-game light show will have rainbow colours with faux pixie dust, and the video screen will show Pavs riding a unicorn and making saves while playing a lute.

It's a process ....
I vote yes!

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08-09-2014, 01:12 AM
  #44
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If the Jets miss the playoffs again then we can expect a "Rainbows and Unicorns" theme for season 5. The pre-game light show will have rainbow colours with faux pixie dust, and the video screen will show Pavs riding a unicorn and making saves while playing a lute.

It's a process ....
Needs more cowbell.

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08-09-2014, 01:19 AM
  #45
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Needs more cowbell.
Moar cowbell

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08-09-2014, 08:25 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Hey, there was another sunshine-and-lollipops thread back in June I think...

But I dunno...this is just putting the current situation in the best light possible.

It's true that the finances of the team are secure - though the citizens of the province have provided most of the security through subsidies, casinos, tax breaks and long term ticket commitments. And this was mainly taken care of before the first puck was dropped 3 years ago.

Most of the other stuff written by the OP is pollyanna-ish spin. For me, it's easier to believe that the organization is inexperienced, indecisive, overly cautious and has made a series of unforced errors than to believe that what they're doing (or not doing) is some diabolical master plan that my poor mortal mind can't fathom.
Yeah, I agree. Just because there's "a plan" and the organization is sticking to "the plan" doesn't mean it's a good "plan." I wasn't nearly as cynical about the plan in previous years as I am now. I feel there were a couple of things that really needed to happen this off-season and none of them did and now I'm left feeling like whatever plan is in place is really pretty poorly formulated and that the organization doesn't really have the cajones to pull it off anyway. The notion that they stuck with Pavelec out of some sort of "loyalty" and that Chipman would ever make any sort of statement like "we will never buy out a contract" (if he ever did that is) is completely ludicrous. Every option to improve should be explored...

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08-09-2014, 11:45 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Hollywood3 View Post
If the Jets miss the playoffs again then we can expect a "Rainbows and Unicorns" theme for season 5. The pre-game light show will have rainbow colours with faux pixie dust, and the video screen will show Pavs riding a unicorn and making saves while playing a lute.

It's a process ....
It's more likely to be a donkey with a pointed stick duck-taped to its head, which they've CGI-ed to make look like a unicorn. They'd also have to CGI the pucks to make them look like they're hitting Pavelec instead of whizzing by him. With all those special FX it would have to be a big-money production. Would be cheaper to buy Pavs out.

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08-09-2014, 01:17 PM
  #48
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OK, boys, the fantasy theme was kinda funny, but let's see who is really distorting reality.:
Quote:
Originally Posted by surge1979 View Post
(This) thread has less traffic because its a speculative puff piece, that coincidentally aligns the organization's original goals from 2011 with what the organization has done to date , and so TADA! the Jets are magically exactly where we wanted to be all along.
Some of us prefer fer to deal in reality, like judging the team or it's GM by actual results and actions rather than their intentions. That thread puts a lot of praise to the team for having a 5 year plan. Thats great but everyone has a 5 year plan. My 3 year old has a 5 year plan to become Ariel the princess from the Little Mermaid movie.....
That line about your 3 year old daughter made me LOL. She must be very precocious for you to have compared her princess fantasies with the long term planning of a multi-million dollar franchise.
And no one is suggesting the Jets are "exactly where (they) wanted to be..." I am sure they are as disappointed as the rest of us at not having achieved better short-term results.

PS-- The longest threads here are the ones critical of Pavs (5000 posts) and Chevy. Some of Garret's less personal but more analytical pieces die on the vine from disuse. It is human nature to be critical and ascribe fault for unhappy events; it's simpler that way.

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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
It's true that the finances of the team are secure - though the citizens of the province have provided most of thcurity through subsidies, casinos, tax breaks and long term ticket commitments. And this was mainly taken care of before the first puck was dropped 3 years ago.

Most of the other stuff written by the OP is pollyanna-ish spin. For me, it's easier to believe that the organization is inexperienced, indecisive, overly cautious and has made a series of unforced errors than to believe that what they're doing (or not doing) is some diabolical master plan that my poor mortal mind can't fathom.
Pollyanna-ish? The OP could not have been more clear: it is a plausible plan, not the only possible plan or even necessarily a good plan.
You suggest it's easier to believe the organization is inexperienced, indecisive and has made errors than to think it has a master plan. That is probably true in one sense--it's easier for some us to be cynical and expect the worst...lessens the psychic pain of unmet expectations.

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Originally Posted by SensibleGuy View Post
Just because there's "a plan" and the organization is sticking to "the plan" doesn't mean it's a good "plan." I wasn't nearly as cynical about the plan in previous years as I am now. I feel there were a couple of things that really needed to happen this off-season and none of them did and now I'm left feeling like whatever plan is in place is really pretty poorly formulated and that the organization doesn't really have the cajones to pull it off anyway. The notion that they stuck with Pavelec out of some sort of "loyalty" and that Chipman would ever make any sort of statement like "we will never buy out a contract" (if he ever did that is) is completely ludicrous. Every option to improve should be explored...
I get what you are saying and am sure it resonates with others.
The Jets are not a perfect org and have made many mistakes. Chipman probably is loyal to a fault (though I am not sure that has anything to do with Pavs still being around). No one need be happy with the current state of affairs.
But to suggest (as others, not you have done) that, as an organization, they have no plan and are drifting aimlessly; or that an attempt to outline a plausible plan is a "puff piece" or "pollyanna-ish"; or to scoff at the notion that the harshest of judgements be deferred until the maturation process is more fully developed...that is not realistic, it is nihilistic.


Last edited by scelaton: 08-09-2014 at 03:57 PM.
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08-09-2014, 04:07 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
Thanks to all for the feedback. Let me respond to a couple of key concerns:


My point was that I didn't think it unreasonable to expect that the 7-9 players needed to augment the 'half-a-team' inherited from Atlanta would be in place by 2016/17:
-Scheifele and Trouba are already in
-Morrissey and Ehlers are very high probability (>80% IMO)
-Hutchinson, Frolik (or equivalent) and Perreaut are solid non-drafted additions to the old Atlanta roster
-Of the highly rated prospects (Petan, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Hellebyuck, Comrie, Glover, Copp) 3 will have already had >/= 2 years of AHL experience and only 1 or 2 need to succeed to round out the roster. Less certain but still possible additions could include Burmi, our 2015 ist rounder and players via UFA/trade.


I don't hear the clock ticking quite as loudly. The Jets have a very young team. Compare them to the Kings who had ~10 players on their roster this year aged 29-36, including some key cogs.
In 2016/17, say we keep LLW but trade Buff +/- Enstrom for youth, we will still have a very young team with an age span that is not as wide as LA's is currently.
(I have also responded to the central issue in your post below, along with ps241's concerns)


ps241, please keep in mind the primary purpose of the OP was to show that there almost certainly is a coherent LT plan of this nature, not necessarily to endorse it (tho my sympathies probably show). Your and Hank's (and Holden's) references to an aging core and narrow window of opportunity seem to have gained traction as the team struggles, but I remain unconvinced it's that narrow. OTOH, your point about the brutally competitive nature of the NHL is certainly true. However, it can be argued that for that very reason it makes no sense to follow the crowd or conventional wisdom. TNSE have instead apparently chosen a strategy that reflects their values, utilizes their organizational strengths and builds their team in a stepwise fashion. I attempted to articulate that strategy as it made sense to me, but seemed less apparent to others. If they are no further ahead in 2-3 years they will no doubt reconsider and change course, but it would be foolhardy to do so at this critical stage of development.
The big-picture time horizon for TNSE is in decades. Lots of opportunities for success will present themselves in the future, even if their foray with Chevy is unsuccessful. In the short term, it makes sense to let the plan play out over 2-3 years and give it an opportunity to reach its potential.
We agree , again . Thanks for detailing the obvious ( I think ) vision and direction the club has chosen . Not quick , not immediate , not easy as Craig Button pointed out on 1290 a while back , but imo the correct path and at least for me I see the long term positives.


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08-09-2014, 04:32 PM
  #50
SensibleGuy
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I'm curious, how common is it for GMs in the NHL to get more than 4 or 5 seasons without any play-off games at all?

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