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Old
08-25-2014, 11:29 AM
  #701
Dorian2
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
If advanced stats is really going to advocate some kind of all or nothing jargon like that its dead in the water as soon as application hits the light of day.

Most competitive sports, and certainly hockey, is in a sense a rock, paper scissors game. You don't do one thing all the time and anybody that would gets schooled like an idiot. You don't lean on a tendency either because as soon as its noticed it gets shutdown.

The best approach almost always is slight of hand and the opponent not knowing what you will do and that you are unpredictable. This is the basis of competitive sports one on one interaction. You know what you're doing and your opponent hopefully doesn't.

Thus a player that only carries the puck in would be very susceptible to being shutdown, would often turn the puck up high leading to dangerous counter breaks, and most sensible coaches would be fairly screaming at that after awhile.

Conversely the player adept at either zone entry or good dumps or hitting a breaking man is more effective and backs players off of the line. In every instance as a coach I would advocate players having more rather than less reponses and focusing on more rather than less skills to gaining zone entry.

This is the whole trouble with specific application of stats that focus on one thing. Hockey is not ever one static thing. In zone entry carrying the puck in as a first approach may result in more possessions. But what it would also result in is hazardous counters the times you do lose possession. Whereas dumping it in and either forechecking or falling back is often a safer play because it doesn't assume possession is at hand and you have numbers back.

You can't just analyze one aspect of hockey off of one metric and reinforce that carrying the puck in is better. Having all the skillsets and ability to work each situation is better, of course. Being adaptable to what an opponent is doing and what system they are using is required in order to play the game at higher levels.

The last thing I would want players to learn is something as simplistic as "carrying the puck in is better"..

If this is how advanced stats is going to inform it should stop and rethink now.
Not much argument here for this post. You are absolutely correct. Hockey is a fluent game, not a static one.

Having said that, there can still be space for those type of stats. Perhaps a coaching team can more easily pick out what a player is doing wrong if his zone entries (for instance), always results in a turn over or something. These stats can still be developed into useful information for both coaches and players.

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08-25-2014, 11:57 AM
  #702
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Originally Posted by Dorian2 View Post
Not much argument here for this post. You are absolutely correct. Hockey is a fluent game, not a static one.

Having said that, there can still be space for those type of stats. Perhaps a coaching team can more easily pick out what a player is doing wrong if his zone entries (for instance), always results in a turn over or something. These stats can still be developed into useful information for both coaches and players.
Both sides just need to avoid all or nothing statements when it comes to the discussion, and we will be able to move forward here. Coaches/GMs need the tools to do their job better (and that's where advanced stats can enter the scene), and the stats are only as good as the people using them.

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08-25-2014, 12:01 PM
  #703
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Originally Posted by Dorian2 View Post
Not much argument here for this post. You are absolutely correct. Hockey is a fluent game, not a static one.

Having said that, there can still be space for those type of stats. Perhaps a coaching team can more easily pick out what a player is doing wrong if his zone entries (for instance), always results in a turn over or something. These stats can still be developed into useful information for both coaches and players.
Yep. I just responded though to how it was phrased. That one approach was inherently better than another. Better at what? Gaining zone entry or winning hockey games. (I can play at either/or absolutes as well)

lol that the LA Kings the best team in the world win by dumping the puck in the vast majority of the time. But they do it well and use a skill that doesn't seem as adeptly performed by most clubs.

As some of the statisticians have found a bigger story is found in how few times a team like the Kings allow zone entry. But this being due to them always having numbers back and playing by the cardinal rule of always matching or exceeding with numbers back. The Kings hate being ever outnumbered on a rush. They don't give up many of those counters.

The Oilers, with a tendency to want to gain zone more with the puck give up tonnes of oddman rushes.

But finally what statisticians don't seemingly fully comprehend is that hockey is an ever evolving game. At one time dumping made more sense for almost all teams as most teams had the maginot blue line...So dumping it in rather than turning the puck over the line made sense. But again this isn't static. One form over the other involves and is in constant flux. There are few absolutes like "this play is better". The right play is that which your opponent doesn't have covered.

back to the drawing board.

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08-25-2014, 12:18 PM
  #704
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Yep. I just responded though to how it was phrased. That one approach was inherently better than another. Better at what? Gaining zone entry or winning hockey games. (I can play at either/or absolutes as well)

lol that the LA Kings the best team in the world win by dumping the puck in the vast majority of the time. But they do it well and use a skill that doesn't seem as adeptly performed by most clubs.

As some of the statisticians have found a bigger story is found in how few times a team like the Kings allow zone entry. But this being due to them always having numbers back and playing by the cardinal rule of always matching or exceeding with numbers back. The Kings hate being ever outnumbered on a rush. They don't give up many of those counters.

The Oilers, with a tendency to want to gain zone more with the puck give up tonnes of oddman rushes.

But finally what statisticians don't seemingly fully comprehend is that hockey is an ever evolving game. At one time dumping made more sense for almost all teams as most teams had the maginot blue line...So dumping it in rather than turning the puck over the line made sense. But again this isn't static. One form over the other involves and is in constant flux. There are few absolutes like "this play is better". The right play is that which your opponent doesn't have covered.

back to the drawing board.
A good example of what you're stating is the coaching that MacT did against various clubs in the 2006 playoffs. I'm pretty sure he used a bunch of different zone entry and defensive styles to shut down a couple of pretty good teams at the time.

Having good players always helps as well.

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08-25-2014, 12:46 PM
  #705
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Yep. I just responded though to how it was phrased. That one approach was inherently better than another. Better at what? Gaining zone entry or winning hockey games. (I can play at either/or absolutes as well)

lol that the LA Kings the best team in the world win by dumping the puck in the vast majority of the time. But they do it well and use a skill that doesn't seem as adeptly performed by most clubs.

As some of the statisticians have found a bigger story is found in how few times a team like the Kings allow zone entry. But this being due to them always having numbers back and playing by the cardinal rule of always matching or exceeding with numbers back. The Kings hate being ever outnumbered on a rush. They don't give up many of those counters.

The Oilers, with a tendency to want to gain zone more with the puck give up tonnes of oddman rushes.

But finally what statisticians don't seemingly fully comprehend is that hockey is an ever evolving game. At one time dumping made more sense for almost all teams as most teams had the maginot blue line...So dumping it in rather than turning the puck over the line made sense. But again this isn't static. One form over the other involves and is in constant flux. There are few absolutes like "this play is better". The right play is that which your opponent doesn't have covered.

back to the drawing board.
Correctly used though stats could be quicker to detect patterns and changes in style. Ofc you should always know the limitations of every approach and in the case of the (not so) advanced stats it should pretty much only be used as a conversation starter.

In the case of stats showing that it's better to enter the zone with the puck under control than to dump it in I get a feeling of no **** Sherlock. You don't need stats to tell you that. It was preached to us from day 1 as youth players, always strive to enter with puck control but if under too much pressure dump it in. And never try to dangle on the offensive blue line. I'd say this still more or less holds true, more advanced as far as strategy goes obviously, in the NHL 2014.

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Old
08-25-2014, 02:34 PM
  #706
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I think getting a player to understand PDO or an unusually low or high shooting percentage would be useful - i.e., if the player feels like he's in a slump, could tell him, "don't worry, historically you're usually shooting much better, it's probably just luck".

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09-02-2014, 12:55 PM
  #707
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Looks like Tyler's getting his "official" intro:

@OilersNow

Today's show: @mc79hockey speaks for the 1st time since joining the #Oilers organization; @dowbboy; and @EdmOilKings coach @hamilton_steve.

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Old
09-03-2014, 02:49 AM
  #708
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Originally Posted by dustrock View Post
I think getting a player to understand PDO or an unusually low or high shooting percentage would be useful - i.e., if the player feels like he's in a slump, could tell him, "don't worry, historically you're usually shooting much better, it's probably just luck".
With all due respect, players know when they are on hot or cold streaks it's pretty evident in their body language and confidence on the ice. The stats would just reinforce what they already know.

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09-05-2014, 07:20 PM
  #709
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With all due respect, players know when they are on hot or cold streaks it's pretty evident in their body language and confidence on the ice. The stats would just reinforce what they already know.
How. Dare. You!

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09-05-2014, 08:24 PM
  #710
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