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Old
08-25-2014, 12:29 PM
  #701
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
If advanced stats is really going to advocate some kind of all or nothing jargon like that its dead in the water as soon as application hits the light of day.

Most competitive sports, and certainly hockey, is in a sense a rock, paper scissors game. You don't do one thing all the time and anybody that would gets schooled like an idiot. You don't lean on a tendency either because as soon as its noticed it gets shutdown.

The best approach almost always is slight of hand and the opponent not knowing what you will do and that you are unpredictable. This is the basis of competitive sports one on one interaction. You know what you're doing and your opponent hopefully doesn't.

Thus a player that only carries the puck in would be very susceptible to being shutdown, would often turn the puck up high leading to dangerous counter breaks, and most sensible coaches would be fairly screaming at that after awhile.

Conversely the player adept at either zone entry or good dumps or hitting a breaking man is more effective and backs players off of the line. In every instance as a coach I would advocate players having more rather than less reponses and focusing on more rather than less skills to gaining zone entry.

This is the whole trouble with specific application of stats that focus on one thing. Hockey is not ever one static thing. In zone entry carrying the puck in as a first approach may result in more possessions. But what it would also result in is hazardous counters the times you do lose possession. Whereas dumping it in and either forechecking or falling back is often a safer play because it doesn't assume possession is at hand and you have numbers back.

You can't just analyze one aspect of hockey off of one metric and reinforce that carrying the puck in is better. Having all the skillsets and ability to work each situation is better, of course. Being adaptable to what an opponent is doing and what system they are using is required in order to play the game at higher levels.

The last thing I would want players to learn is something as simplistic as "carrying the puck in is better"..

If this is how advanced stats is going to inform it should stop and rethink now.
Not much argument here for this post. You are absolutely correct. Hockey is a fluent game, not a static one.

Having said that, there can still be space for those type of stats. Perhaps a coaching team can more easily pick out what a player is doing wrong if his zone entries (for instance), always results in a turn over or something. These stats can still be developed into useful information for both coaches and players.

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08-25-2014, 12:57 PM
  #702
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Originally Posted by Dorian2 View Post
Not much argument here for this post. You are absolutely correct. Hockey is a fluent game, not a static one.

Having said that, there can still be space for those type of stats. Perhaps a coaching team can more easily pick out what a player is doing wrong if his zone entries (for instance), always results in a turn over or something. These stats can still be developed into useful information for both coaches and players.
Both sides just need to avoid all or nothing statements when it comes to the discussion, and we will be able to move forward here. Coaches/GMs need the tools to do their job better (and that's where advanced stats can enter the scene), and the stats are only as good as the people using them.

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08-25-2014, 01:01 PM
  #703
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Not much argument here for this post. You are absolutely correct. Hockey is a fluent game, not a static one.

Having said that, there can still be space for those type of stats. Perhaps a coaching team can more easily pick out what a player is doing wrong if his zone entries (for instance), always results in a turn over or something. These stats can still be developed into useful information for both coaches and players.
Yep. I just responded though to how it was phrased. That one approach was inherently better than another. Better at what? Gaining zone entry or winning hockey games. (I can play at either/or absolutes as well)

lol that the LA Kings the best team in the world win by dumping the puck in the vast majority of the time. But they do it well and use a skill that doesn't seem as adeptly performed by most clubs.

As some of the statisticians have found a bigger story is found in how few times a team like the Kings allow zone entry. But this being due to them always having numbers back and playing by the cardinal rule of always matching or exceeding with numbers back. The Kings hate being ever outnumbered on a rush. They don't give up many of those counters.

The Oilers, with a tendency to want to gain zone more with the puck give up tonnes of oddman rushes.

But finally what statisticians don't seemingly fully comprehend is that hockey is an ever evolving game. At one time dumping made more sense for almost all teams as most teams had the maginot blue line...So dumping it in rather than turning the puck over the line made sense. But again this isn't static. One form over the other involves and is in constant flux. There are few absolutes like "this play is better". The right play is that which your opponent doesn't have covered.

back to the drawing board.

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08-25-2014, 01:18 PM
  #704
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Yep. I just responded though to how it was phrased. That one approach was inherently better than another. Better at what? Gaining zone entry or winning hockey games. (I can play at either/or absolutes as well)

lol that the LA Kings the best team in the world win by dumping the puck in the vast majority of the time. But they do it well and use a skill that doesn't seem as adeptly performed by most clubs.

As some of the statisticians have found a bigger story is found in how few times a team like the Kings allow zone entry. But this being due to them always having numbers back and playing by the cardinal rule of always matching or exceeding with numbers back. The Kings hate being ever outnumbered on a rush. They don't give up many of those counters.

The Oilers, with a tendency to want to gain zone more with the puck give up tonnes of oddman rushes.

But finally what statisticians don't seemingly fully comprehend is that hockey is an ever evolving game. At one time dumping made more sense for almost all teams as most teams had the maginot blue line...So dumping it in rather than turning the puck over the line made sense. But again this isn't static. One form over the other involves and is in constant flux. There are few absolutes like "this play is better". The right play is that which your opponent doesn't have covered.

back to the drawing board.
A good example of what you're stating is the coaching that MacT did against various clubs in the 2006 playoffs. I'm pretty sure he used a bunch of different zone entry and defensive styles to shut down a couple of pretty good teams at the time.

Having good players always helps as well.

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08-25-2014, 01:46 PM
  #705
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Yep. I just responded though to how it was phrased. That one approach was inherently better than another. Better at what? Gaining zone entry or winning hockey games. (I can play at either/or absolutes as well)

lol that the LA Kings the best team in the world win by dumping the puck in the vast majority of the time. But they do it well and use a skill that doesn't seem as adeptly performed by most clubs.

As some of the statisticians have found a bigger story is found in how few times a team like the Kings allow zone entry. But this being due to them always having numbers back and playing by the cardinal rule of always matching or exceeding with numbers back. The Kings hate being ever outnumbered on a rush. They don't give up many of those counters.

The Oilers, with a tendency to want to gain zone more with the puck give up tonnes of oddman rushes.

But finally what statisticians don't seemingly fully comprehend is that hockey is an ever evolving game. At one time dumping made more sense for almost all teams as most teams had the maginot blue line...So dumping it in rather than turning the puck over the line made sense. But again this isn't static. One form over the other involves and is in constant flux. There are few absolutes like "this play is better". The right play is that which your opponent doesn't have covered.

back to the drawing board.
Correctly used though stats could be quicker to detect patterns and changes in style. Ofc you should always know the limitations of every approach and in the case of the (not so) advanced stats it should pretty much only be used as a conversation starter.

In the case of stats showing that it's better to enter the zone with the puck under control than to dump it in I get a feeling of no **** Sherlock. You don't need stats to tell you that. It was preached to us from day 1 as youth players, always strive to enter with puck control but if under too much pressure dump it in. And never try to dangle on the offensive blue line. I'd say this still more or less holds true, more advanced as far as strategy goes obviously, in the NHL 2014.

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08-25-2014, 03:34 PM
  #706
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I think getting a player to understand PDO or an unusually low or high shooting percentage would be useful - i.e., if the player feels like he's in a slump, could tell him, "don't worry, historically you're usually shooting much better, it's probably just luck".

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09-02-2014, 01:55 PM
  #707
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Looks like Tyler's getting his "official" intro:

@OilersNow

Today's show: @mc79hockey speaks for the 1st time since joining the #Oilers organization; @dowbboy; and @EdmOilKings coach @hamilton_steve.

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09-03-2014, 03:49 AM
  #708
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I think getting a player to understand PDO or an unusually low or high shooting percentage would be useful - i.e., if the player feels like he's in a slump, could tell him, "don't worry, historically you're usually shooting much better, it's probably just luck".
With all due respect, players know when they are on hot or cold streaks it's pretty evident in their body language and confidence on the ice. The stats would just reinforce what they already know.

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09-05-2014, 08:20 PM
  #709
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With all due respect, players know when they are on hot or cold streaks it's pretty evident in their body language and confidence on the ice. The stats would just reinforce what they already know.
How. Dare. You!

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09-05-2014, 09:24 PM
  #710
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How. Dare. You!

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01-06-2015, 08:03 PM
  #711
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It might be time to change the title of this thread...

Speculation: Oilers fire Tyler Dellow

https://twitter.com/SUNdvandiest/sta...85194138796032

https://twitter.com/Robin_Brownlee/s...46454297116672

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01-06-2015, 08:07 PM
  #712
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Good times, two for one punt of useless hires if this is true.

So now we have indication of who's bright idea it was to hire Dellows.

Too bad we've recruited all these "possession" players in the meantime and let others go.

oh well, I'll take it.

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01-06-2015, 08:11 PM
  #713
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Good times, two for one punt of useless hires if this is true.

So now we have indication of who's bright idea it was to hire Dellows.

Too bad we've recruited all these "possession" players in the meantime and let others go.

oh well, I'll take it.
*sigh*

Thanks to our resident curmudgeon for your always sunny take on all things Oilers.

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01-06-2015, 08:14 PM
  #714
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Hard to speculate on how much of a say Dellow really had, tough to ridicule him while ignorant, but I'm sure everyone will give it the old college try.

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01-06-2015, 08:16 PM
  #715
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Good times, two for one punt of useless hires if this is true.

So now we have indication of who's bright idea it was to hire Dellows.

Too bad we've recruited all these "possession" players in the meantime and let others go.

oh well, I'll take it.
dellow hated schultz, so its pretty safe to assume that it wasn't tyler's idea to give schultz all those minutes.... i doubt he had much to do with player usage at all to be honest

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01-06-2015, 08:19 PM
  #716
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*sigh*

Thanks to our resident curmudgeon for your always sunny take on all things Oilers.
I wasn't always this way. In my defense I'm a long time Oiler fan. Some of it is conditioned..learned.

On a sunnier note I'd do a couple backflips if the Leafs signed Eakins as their new Head coach and Dellow as the hired help.

just for levity you understand

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01-06-2015, 08:20 PM
  #717
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So hiring someone to do advanced stats was a fail?

Maybe just regular Joe Blow stats (like a few have said earlier) and somebody who can translate some stats to help the coaches and players, is all that is really needed.

Advanced stats may be over kill in this situation.

These players still need to master the basics that Howie Meeker could teach them. (I just aged myself massively )

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01-06-2015, 08:22 PM
  #718
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dellow hated schultz, so its pretty safe to assume that it wasn't tyler's idea to give schultz all those minutes.... i doubt he had much to do with player usage at all to be honest
Dellow liked these "possession" players we recruited in the offseason. That's all I ever heard in the offseason what great big corsi numbers these guys had.

The better to suck with..

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01-06-2015, 08:24 PM
  #719
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So hiring someone to do advanced stats was a fail?

Maybe just regular Joe Blow stats (like a few have said earlier) and somebody who can translate some stats to help the coaches and players, is all that is really needed.

Advanced stats may be over kill in this situation.

These players still need to master the basics that Howie Meeker could teach them. (I just aged myself massively )
Hiring a clueless idiot of a coach who subscribed to advanced stats beyond coaching common sense was a guaranteed crash into a brickwall.

Theres a use for advanced stats. They would need to be properly utilized in conjunction with already established coaching wisdom. Which Eakins has none of.

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01-06-2015, 08:25 PM
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Dellow's SO:

Quote:
I'm starting to think that not everything on the internet is true.
https://twitter.com/blackbetty07/sta...32508236705793

So maybe he's still working for the Oilers. Acting smart and all that

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01-06-2015, 08:25 PM
  #721
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Dellow liked these "possession" players we recruited in the offseason. That's all I ever heard in the offseason what great big corsi numbers these guys had.

The better to suck with..
Well, Fayne and Pouliot, the ones with good possession numbers, seem to have turned out alright.

I'm rather skeptical about any theory that has Dellow proposing Nikitin, because Nikitin is someone advanced stats didn't like.

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01-06-2015, 08:29 PM
  #722
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If advanced stats is really going to advocate some kind of all or nothing jargon like that its dead in the water as soon as application hits the light of day.

Most competitive sports, and certainly hockey, is in a sense a rock, paper scissors game. You don't do one thing all the time and anybody that would gets schooled like an idiot. You don't lean on a tendency either because as soon as its noticed it gets shutdown.

The best approach almost always is slight of hand and the opponent not knowing what you will do and that you are unpredictable. This is the basis of competitive sports one on one interaction. You know what you're doing and your opponent hopefully doesn't.

Thus a player that only carries the puck in would be very susceptible to being shutdown, would often turn the puck up high leading to dangerous counter breaks, and most sensible coaches would be fairly screaming at that after awhile.

Conversely the player adept at either zone entry or good dumps or hitting a breaking man is more effective and backs players off of the line. In every instance as a coach I would advocate players having more rather than less reponses and focusing on more rather than less skills to gaining zone entry.

This is the whole trouble with specific application of stats that focus on one thing. Hockey is not ever one static thing. In zone entry carrying the puck in as a first approach may result in more possessions. But what it would also result in is hazardous counters the times you do lose possession. Whereas dumping it in and either forechecking or falling back is often a safer play because it doesn't assume possession is at hand and you have numbers back.

You can't just analyze one aspect of hockey off of one metric and reinforce that carrying the puck in is better. Having all the skillsets and ability to work each situation is better, of course. Being adaptable to what an opponent is doing and what system they are using is required in order to play the game at higher levels.

The last thing I would want players to learn is something as simplistic as "carrying the puck in is better"..

If this is how advanced stats is going to inform it should stop and rethink now.
Nobody solely carries the puck in; everyone dumps occasionally. Thing is, given the option, dump & chase is almost always the wrong answer. You are voluntarily giving up the puck, while their team will have at least one (if not more) players closer to it than yours. Nothing makes logical sense about that, unless they've got a defensive strategy that's completely blocking your guys from crossing their blueline with the puck.

And it's not like there's only one way to carry it across, either. You can have a forward carry it through the neutral zone, lead passes from dmen to forwards with speed, a drop pass to a trailer just before the line, etc. So it's not nearly like carrying the puck is just a single strategy - it's a collection of strategies that can be cycled through.

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01-06-2015, 08:32 PM
  #723
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Nobody solely carries the puck in; everyone dumps occasionally. Thing is, given the option, dump & chase is almost always the wrong answer. You are voluntarily giving up the puck, while their team will have at least one (if not more) players closer to it than yours. Nothing makes logical sense about that, unless they've got a defensive strategy that's completely blocking your guys from crossing their blueline with the puck.

And it's not like there's only one way to carry it across, either. You can have a forward carry it through the neutral zone, lead passes from dmen to forwards with speed, a drop pass to a trailer just before the line, etc. So it's not nearly like carrying the puck is just a single strategy - it's a collection of strategies that can be cycled through.
That comment you quoted was from August. Just so you know...

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01-06-2015, 08:33 PM
  #724
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Hiring a clueless idiot of a coach who subscribed to advanced stats beyond coaching common sense was a guaranteed crash into a brickwall.

Theres a use for advanced stats. They would need to be properly utilized in conjunction with already established coaching wisdom. Which Eakins has none of.
After all that has been said and done regarding Eakins, from posters here, radio guys etc.....I'm beginning to think the players tuned out Mr. Talkallotinpractice sometime last year.

I'm starting to wonder if that water bottle incident was the start of it.

What a bunch of goofy gaffs this team has been through in the last couple of years.

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01-06-2015, 08:33 PM
  #725
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Well, Fayne and Pouliot, the ones with good possession numbers, seem to have turned out alright.

I'm rather skeptical about any theory that has Dellow proposing Nikitin, because Nikitin is someone advanced stats didn't like.
Pouiot is a massive overpay as is Purcell. Not exactly startling performance from either. The pay is good though.

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