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Oilers hire Tyler Dellow

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08-05-2014, 12:36 PM
  #101
Beerfish
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I'm sure he'll do a great job of providing the data he is asked to provide. You simply can't fill into a trap of being too dependent on this kind of data without knowing exactly whey players have the numbers they do and how to translate that into better or equal performance.

A big test for this type of data as far as I'm concerned will be what the numbers of the new wingers we have at the end of the year. If Pouliot and Purcell still have these gaudy possession numbers at the end of the year I'll be more sold on it.

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08-05-2014, 12:36 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
First of all, Corsi was originally created to track goalie activity.

Second, you need to shoot ON TARGET to score more. Corsi does not offer any distinguishment in these regards.

1 shot on target has infinitly more chance in resulting in a goal than 1000 missed shots.
I suspect most NHL teams using analytics are far beyond Corsi. At any rate, the important thing about Corsi is that, over several seasons (higher sample number), there seems to be a correlation between positive Corsi numbers and making the playoffs.

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08-05-2014, 12:40 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
I'm sure he'll do a great job of providing the data he is asked to provide. You simply can't fill into a trap of being too dependent on this kind of data without knowing exactly whey players have the numbers they do and how to translate that into better or equal performance.

A big test for this type of data as far as I'm concerned will be what the numbers of the new wingers we have at the end of the year. If Pouliot and Purcell still have these gaudy possession numbers at the end of the year I'll be more sold on it.
I agree with all of this. There are traps to fall into, for sure. And you have to be able to separate the data from each player, which probably takes a lot of time and effort, and still likely has quite a bit of subjectivity to it.

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08-05-2014, 12:42 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
You can grasp the concept that the number of Corsi events that would be classified as impossible to result in a goal is completely ignored yet highly significant, no?
How significantly exactly? Over the course of 6,000+ events, that stuff would come out in the wash.

Now, let's talk about fluke goals and what that does to GF%....

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Saying the LA Kings were able to be predicted to the win the cup based on Corsi% and saying that GF% doesn't matter due to "sample size" is pure folly and completely manipulation of circumstance.
Except the Kings were picked to win the cup on CF% in a year they were literally middle of the pack for GF% (2011-12).

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GF% corralated more with regular season results that Corsi did, period. No end run or goalpost moving changes that fact one bit.
And if you look over several years the two measures are closely grouped. Since 2010, 8 of the top 10 GF% were in the top 10 for CF%. The correlation is even tighter between GF$ and Fenwick % (which doesn't count blocked shots). Why, it's almost as if teams that consistently enjoy a territorial advantage will also get a larger share of the goals.

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Goals, of course, being the only metric used in determining wins and losses.
Goals of course also being subject to randomness at a far greater rate than shots.

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08-05-2014, 12:46 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by dustrock View Post
I suspect most NHL teams using analytics are far beyond Corsi. At any rate, the important thing about Corsi is that, over several seasons (higher sample number), there seems to be a correlation between positive Corsi numbers and making the playoffs.
They absolutely are, even Dellow himself when working on his blog was beyond Corsi at this point.

But its still the best available data for the average fan.

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08-05-2014, 12:49 PM
  #106
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Should be a decent add, imo.

He'll be the one gathering and presenting data. Not making decisions based on the data(I hope).

He's shown to be pretty good at the former, but not so much with the latter.

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08-05-2014, 12:54 PM
  #107
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Tyler is a bit of a jerk but there is no doubting he is a bright guy and he should provide some interesting insight for the organization. This is a good hire and while I don't agree with everything he argues via his stats, the Oilers would be smart to at least listen to what he presents.

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08-05-2014, 01:00 PM
  #108
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Down Goes Brown ‏@DownGoesBrown
I always believed that Tyler Dellow would realize his lifelong dream of working for an NHL team, but I guess the Oilers are close enough.

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08-05-2014, 01:01 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
I'm sure he'll do a great job of providing the data he is asked to provide. You simply can't fill into a trap of being too dependent on this kind of data without knowing exactly whey players have the numbers they do and how to translate that into better or equal performance.

A big test for this type of data as far as I'm concerned will be what the numbers of the new wingers we have at the end of the year. If Pouliot and Purcell still have these gaudy possession numbers at the end of the year I'll be more sold on it.
this is a really good point actually... if pouliot and purcell have very good RelCorsi this year (assuming similar zone starts, relcomp etc) it would certainly be another arrow in the "advanced stats" argument-quiver

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08-05-2014, 01:13 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
Down Goes Brown ‏@DownGoesBrown
I always believed that Tyler Dellow would realize his lifelong dream of working for an NHL team, but I guess the Oilers are close enough.
Hey, we can't all be as wildly successful as the Maple Leafs organization.

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08-05-2014, 01:23 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Puritania View Post
Hey, we can't all be as wildly successful as the Maple Leafs organization.
"@DownGoesBrown: You know, between the Leafs and the Oilers, this summer isn't helping the stereotype that stats guys are most comfortable in the basement."

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08-05-2014, 01:30 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy22 View Post
They absolutely are, even Dellow himself when working on his blog was beyond Corsi at this point.

But its still the best available data for the average fan.
Exactly, CORSI is just a buzz word people have latched onto.

Soon NHL teams will have real time tracking, upgrading on what ever they use now, and far beyond anything us plebs use. Instantly precision and accuracy of these statistics increase and become a commodity with fewer question marks. I really think it's key for NHL clubs to be bringing in people like Dellow, Sunny Mehta, and Eric Tulsky right now. Not for their previous works, but because they've proven that they're bright hockey minds who can expand on these stats.

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08-05-2014, 01:39 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
Down Goes Brown ‏@DownGoesBrown
I always believed that Tyler Dellow would realize his lifelong dream of working for an NHL team, but I guess the Oilers are close enough.
What a ****

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08-05-2014, 01:55 PM
  #114
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At first I read the title as "Oilers hire Tyler Durden"

Now, that would be a good hire.

"Listen up, maggots. You are not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else."

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08-05-2014, 01:59 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
What, that jerk?

J/k. I used to have long debates with him on HF back when he used to post here more regularly. Smart guy, but I sure didn't see eye to eye with him on a lot of issues. I always got the impression he started with his conclusion(Hall should be in junior, Horcoff kicks ass, etc.) and then found stats to back his position up, rather than start with the stats and then see what can be drawn from them. Obviously the Oilers disagree with me. Guess I will have to accept my heaping plate of crow.

Congrats to Tyler on the new job. I hope he helps the team.
What do you have to eat crow for? You nailed him in your description. Good with stats, not so good with using the stats, horrible with dealing with people who disagree with how he uses the stats.

Now, as long as he just sticks to the stats and doesnt simply use them to argue with people on message boards, it will be all good. His conclusions hopefully wont be made prior to analyzing the stats, and his stats will be able to be used properly.

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08-05-2014, 02:00 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
Down Goes Brown ‏@DownGoesBrown
I always believed that Tyler Dellow would realize his lifelong dream of working for an NHL team, but I guess the Oilers are close enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
"@DownGoesBrown: You know, between the Leafs and the Oilers, this summer isn't helping the stereotype that stats guys are most comfortable in the basement."
Ha, funny.

God, I cant wait till we arent a punchline anymore.

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08-05-2014, 02:17 PM
  #117
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Very cool. I'm sure there will be a few angry posters as he is somewhat of a polarizing figure. I love his Twitter feed, too bad it will likely get neutered.

Glad to see the Oilers keeping up with the times.

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08-05-2014, 02:47 PM
  #118
Jek McPorkins
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRebuild View Post
At first I read the title as "Oilers hire Tyler Durden"

Now, that would be a good hire.

"Listen up, maggots. You are not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else."
Hahaha! YES!

"His Name Is Robert Nilsson. His Name Is Robert Nilsson. His Name Is Robert Nilsson."

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08-05-2014, 03:03 PM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cawz View Post
What do you have to eat crow for? You nailed him in your description. Good with stats, not so good with using the stats, horrible with dealing with people who disagree with how he uses the stats.

Now, as long as he just sticks to the stats and doesnt simply use them to argue with people on message boards, it will be all good. His conclusions hopefully wont be made prior to analyzing the stats, and his stats will be able to be used properly.
That's understatement. I've told the story before, but a few years ago mc79 got into an argument with a fellow Oiler poster on an online forum. His reaction? He was so angry that he threatened to reveal the posters name and information online, in an effort to hurt his future work prospects.

Everyone can say what they want about him being a great stats guy...but he acts like a lowlife. Terrible character hire when you work in an environment where social interactions are necessary for a team gain.

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08-05-2014, 03:09 PM
  #120
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As much as I'm not a fan of the guy as a human, I think he's a great hire just because he's doing a lot of work in an area that I think is a really meaningful application of stats - actually linking it to in game strategy so that you have a better idea of what is actually working.

Most of the stats stuff you see in the blogosphere is not all that useful for the real applications of a hockey team, it's too reliant on nothing but the crappy stats we as fans have available...but if you have a hockey team with people to gather real stats, and the ability and time to watch video of any game easily, there's a lot you can do with stats, and that is what Dellow has been looking at mostly lately.

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08-05-2014, 03:16 PM
  #121
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I enjoy listening to him on the radio. I think he comes across as a huge crap bag in his blog and in past posts here. He seems to have a strong grasp of the numbers though, and if that's the direction that the Oilers want to go, he seems like a smart guy to go after.

Nothing wrong with adding some intelligent people to the organization. If even to just provide some counter perspective. Great hire? Who knows. Bad hire? Unlikely.

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08-05-2014, 03:20 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senor Catface View Post
That's understatement. I've told the story before, but a few years ago mc79 got into an argument with a fellow Oiler poster on an online forum. His reaction? He was so angry that he threatened to reveal the posters name and information online, in an effort to hurt his future work prospects.

Everyone can say what they want about him being a great stats guy...but he acts like a lowlife. Terrible character hire when you work in an environment where social interactions are necessary for a team gain.
I know a few people from Toronto who know the guy IRL and he's nothing like his online persona (fancy that). Well, not much anyway. Certainly doesn't suffer fools gladly, which isn't a bad trait.

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08-05-2014, 03:21 PM
  #123
Jek McPorkins
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Originally Posted by Senor Catface View Post
That's understatement. I've told the story before, but a few years ago mc79 got into an argument with a fellow Oiler poster on an online forum. His reaction? He was so angry that he threatened to reveal the posters name and information online, in an effort to hurt his future work prospects.

Everyone can say what they want about him being a great stats guy...but he acts like a lowlife. Terrible character hire when you work in an environment where social interactions are necessary for a team gain.
Holy ****. Totally forgot about that. That was by far the lowest PoS thing I've ever seen anyone do online.

**** Dellow. What a piece of ****.

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08-05-2014, 03:28 PM
  #124
Moose Coleman
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Originally Posted by Psycho Dad View Post
Holy ****. Totally forgot about that. That was by far the lowest PoS thing I've ever seen anyone do online.

**** Dellow. What a piece of ****.
Y'all got a link for that?

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08-05-2014, 03:37 PM
  #125
Jek McPorkins
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Y'all got a link for that?
The forum doesn't exist anymore. But the events are true. Absolutely despicable behaviour by Dellow.

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