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Evaluate Chevy - Part III (mod warning post #104, #122)

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Old
08-06-2014, 07:57 PM
  #1
Hank Chinaski
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Evaluate Chevy - Part III (mod warning post #104, #122)

Link to previous thread.

Posts from the previous thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
Here is how I think the Jets will be better this year.
Kane will have a breakthrough year if he stays healthy. He will have Scheif or Perrault as his centre which should help him this year.
Wheeler needs a fast start out of the gate, he has taken a while to get going every year and I think he needs the confidence right from the get go which will only help him and Scheif.
Scheif will continue to progress and will put up better numbers this year.
Perrault is a better third line centre than Oli, he will add speed to our lineup and him and TJ have good possession numbers and will only give us more depth in the bottom six and make us harder to play against. I think TJ will start on the fourth line with Slater and Thorburn which is the best fourth line we've ever iced. Odell will be a regular which Im good with as he is ready for the next step.
The one player I don't know what to expect from up front is Buff, he could be real good or a bust up front so Im not sure about him yet

On the blue line Enstrom and Bogo will have their best year as Jets if they can stay healthy. Its time for Bogo to take the next step and Toby can get 50 points if paired with him. Trouba will progress and adding Clitsome to the top 4 is an improvement over Stuart.
In goal, I really think one, if not both of our goalies can have .911-9.14 SP. Hutch will push Pavs and may even overtake him as the starter. This improvement will help us win those one goal games that we couldn't win last year. I really think those one goal games are important to note as we were close in most games and just couldn't pull some of them out. Hiring a new strength coach will hopefully help us out in that area.
Maurice is the biggest factor for me, he will run a man's training camp and will get the team's attention early, no spot in the lineup will be safe and he will hold all players accountable. He will bring a different attitude to the room and the players will not give up on him as they did Noel.
To think we only finished 7 points back last year and that's with players giving up on the coach.
That's my quick ramble as Im short on time, but these are my thoughts on why we can compete with COL, NSH, MIN and DAL for a playoff spot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
So basically... career years from Kane, Scheif, Trouba, Bogo, Wheeler, Enstrom, Clitsome and Pav / Hutch with no notable fall off elsewhere
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunter368 View Post
Puck Stoppa,

I have to agree with Truck's comments above, I think you are being completely one sided in your POV. Sure some of things you stated may turn out to be true, but not all of them, not a chance. This is my whole point people have to look at our future with a balanced POV, not through rose colored glasses. No offence meant.

Plus you never mentioned a thing about how several of the teams above us in the division (who you think we'll pass in the standings) improved dramatically while we did basically nothing (Perr & TJ added, are small upgrades) and yet you expect us to pass several of them within our division and make the playoffs.

I'm not saying the playoffs are impossible this year, it could happen just very unlikely. But no way do we pass all of Col, Dal, Preds, and Minny this year. I'll do a siggy bet on that one gladly (for one entire year), with anyone who take that bet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NBjet View Post
I don't think that this is that much of a stretch...
Quote:
Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
Just had a quick glance at COL's stats last year, Duchene, Landeskog, Oreilly, Mackinnon, Johnson, McGinn, Varlamov, Barrie all had career years just to name a few. Anything is possible, call me delusional but Im feeling optimistic these days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
The TD is too late to tank to a top 5 pick level even if we get rid of more than Buff and Frolik.



We could beat out Dallas OR Colorado OR Minny perhaps but it is not realistic to say we could beat out all 3 even if we have a lot of things fall into place. Dallas HAS improved and will be a little out of site for us unless they have terrible luck with injuries or something similar. Colorado overachieved last year and have not gotten better so there is a chance. Minny is better than us on paper but if their goaltending doesn't come through it is not impossible for us to compete. We should be able to beat Nashville but that will be close too. To beat any more than 1 of those will require a lot of luck and a lot of things working out for us. We can't rely on ALL of our close competitors suffering an unusual rate of injury to their top players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Anything is possible. This is surely true, but what is possible and what I think will happen are usually quite different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
So you don't think any of these will happen?:

No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arby18 View Post
There's a very good chance that the sophomore slump derails one or both of these players. Bogo had a heck of a rookie year himself but has seen a decline due to injuries, something both 8 and 55 have suffered through already. Natural progression is hard to bank on, especially in such important roles.

Any of these things could happen. But the chances of all of them happening are about as likely as none of them happening. And if only a few of these possibilities pan out than the Jets are likely out of the mix.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunter368 View Post
Exactly my point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunter368 View Post
Your are correct sir!
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
I don't think Toby will hit 50 ever again, especially not with Bogo as his partner. I also a firm non believer in Pav. He his .914 once. He has hit .906 or lover every other year. I wouldn't bet over on .906.
Quote:
Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
Then just wait till Morrissey breaks down the door on his 9 game look

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Old
08-06-2014, 10:19 PM
  #2
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Why are we evaluating vehicles on a hockey board?

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08-07-2014, 12:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Why are we evaluating vehicles on a hockey board?
Mine is part of a recall list because of a faulty power steering pump, but the local dealership has neither the part or the info.

They also signed Mark Stuart for 3 years.

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08-07-2014, 07:44 AM
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Quote:
I think Minnie's better then us but within range of a growth season/lucky season getting us above them.


One could certainly argue the two teams are fairly equal with one huge exception.......... they don't have Pavelec.

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08-07-2014, 08:02 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Why are we evaluating vehicles on a hockey board?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DespoticNewt View Post
Mine is part of a recall list because of a faulty power steering pump, but the local dealership has neither the part or the info.
Maybe that's your experience.

My Chevy is reliable, dependable, and good value for the money.
Think I'll keep it for another few years.
Could be a bit speedier, though.....

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08-07-2014, 08:36 AM
  #6
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Is it out of the question to consider the very real possibility that we are actually attempting to finish lower in the standings by putting on a smokescreen of having faith in Pavelec in order to try and grab McDavid? Similar to how the Pens weakened/did not try to improve their 04 roster to try and get Crosby? Could this be where our draft and develop strategy is more/different than the other 29 teams?

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08-07-2014, 08:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jets View Post
Is it out of the question to consider the very real possibility that we are actually attempting to finish lower in the standings by putting on a smokescreen of having faith in Pavelec in order to try and grab McDavid? Similar to how the Pens weakened/did not try to improve their 04 roster to try and get Crosby? Could this be where our draft and develop strategy is more/different than the other 29 teams?
Even with Pavelec, this team is too strong to finish that low: via the lottery, maybe. Just too much reasonably good talent to completely tank.

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08-07-2014, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
Maybe that's your experience.

My Chevy is reliable, dependable, and good value for the money.
Think I'll keep it for another few years.
Could be a bit speedier, though.....
Does it drive in circles?

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08-07-2014, 08:56 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jets View Post
Is it out of the question to consider the very real possibility that we are actually attempting to finish lower in the standings by putting on a smokescreen of having faith in Pavelec in order to try and grab McDavid? Similar to how the Pens weakened/did not try to improve their 04 roster to try and get Crosby? Could this be where our draft and develop strategy is more/different than the other 29 teams?
I think if the Jets had a conscious strategy to be near the bottom and draft McDavid, they would have to start to move out some players right now. Waiting until the TD will be too late IMO.

I'm normally pretty optimistic, but considering our division, I just don't see us in the playoffs this season. But we're also likely not bad enough to be in the bottom 5. I think to even get a sniff at the bottom 5 or 3, we would need to trade both Kane and Buff at a minimum (getting only picks and prospects back, i.e no improvement to the roster), and likely another one or two like Frolik and / or Ladd (if they're not going to re-sign), and possibly Enstrom.

Probably wouldn't have signed Perreault as well if that was the plan.

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08-07-2014, 09:13 AM
  #10
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Jets are really in 'no mans land'. Too good to finish top 5, but not good enough to make the playoffs in a talent rich and deep division.

Arrrghhhhh!!!!

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08-07-2014, 09:16 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Jets are really in 'no mans land'. Too good to finish top 5, but not good enough to make the playoffs in a talent rich and deep division.

Arrrghhhhh!!!!
It's starting to feel that way, and it seems like the worst feeling to have.

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08-07-2014, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jets View Post
Is it out of the question to consider the very real possibility that we are actually attempting to finish lower in the standings by putting on a smokescreen of having faith in Pavelec in order to try and grab McDavid? Similar to how the Pens weakened/did not try to improve their 04 roster to try and get Crosby? Could this be where our draft and develop strategy is more/different than the other 29 teams?
"Tanking without looking like we are tanking"

As a unit, the players on this team are just too good and most nights they can somewhat counter-balance the Pavs factor. We are stuck between the two worlds of getting a great draft pick and making the playoffs.

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08-07-2014, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Board Bard View Post
Does it drive in circles?
Seems like it at times.
I must admit, the engine does emit a lot of indecipherable sounds...wish I knew what they meant.

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08-07-2014, 09:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Even with Pavelec, this team is too strong to finish that low: via the lottery, maybe. Just too much reasonably good talent to completely tank.
There's always the possibility that injuries decimate our key players.

Ex: Little, Wheeler, Enstrom, Trouba miss significant time.

It's entirely possible that this team could skid into the bottom tier and be part of the McEichel sweepstakes

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08-07-2014, 09:43 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Even with Pavelec, this team is too strong to finish that low: via the lottery, maybe. Just too much reasonably good talent to completely tank.
Its bad enough that we still have Pavelec for this year but .... what if Chevy intends to keep him til his contract expires? What if next June he announces that Pavs is still out starter and again the June following that? It seems that no one wants to contemplate that. It is just too irrational to believe but so is starting this season with him.

Dealing with goaltending alone would have made the Jets a playoff team if the new goaltending worked out (always ifs of course).

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08-07-2014, 10:03 AM
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It is pretty safe to assume that with the type of contract that Hutchinson has and they type of prospects coming into the system that Pavelec's days are numbered. At best they dump in the off season if he has another poor season. At worst he is a highly paid backup(actually that might not be a bad spot for him, he can have really strong games from time to time).

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08-07-2014, 10:07 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Its bad enough that we still have Pavelec for this year but .... what if Chevy intends to keep him til his contract expires? What if next June he announces that Pavs is still out starter and again the June following that? It seems that no one wants to contemplate that. It is just too irrational to believe but so is starting this season with him.

Dealing with goaltending alone would have made the Jets a playoff team if the new goaltending worked out (always ifs of course).
Yup. I'm reasonably happy with our D (would like another top 4, or I hope to heck Morrissey pushes his way into the lineup), I'm happy with our forward crew, but our goaltending is such a question mark. Overly simplistic, but I think if you put someone like Luongo or Lundqvist (or even an average goalie) in the net, paired with Hutch, we're a playoff contender.

Always comes full circle to our largest issue. And I said I didn't want to talk about it anymore, but it seems it can't be helped.

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08-07-2014, 10:23 AM
  #18
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I thought I'd try something a little differen't. I am going to grade based on how I see this team unfolding in a couple of years based by position:

Defense:

What we look to have:

3 top 4 defenseman under 23 years old and an older smart proven top pairing rearguard in Enstrom.

The top 4 has all the makings of being amongst the most balanced and dominant in the league in a couple of years.

All our extremely mobile.
There is balance between size and intellegience.
They all are or could be elite at transitioning to he puck up the ice.
All 4 can should be able to provide quality offense.

Stuart and one of our younger guys like Ellerby, Postma, Kitchen should be able to form a solid bottom pairing.

Potential issues:

Morrissey not developing as expected.

Bogosian's injury problems.

Chevy's grade on building the defense for the longterm is an A because I really like where we could be in a couple of years.

Goalies: Pavelic still being on the team automatically sets Chevy's grade back. This is partially offset by drafting a couple of promising blue chip goalies as well as picking up Hutch for free. So while goaltending is terrible in the short term, the future looks pretty bright. Grade D plus.

Centers: Scheifele looks to be an up and coming two/way center. Coupled this with a smart signing in Pearrult and Brian Little being locked up to a good deal and Chevy has quietly assembled a strong one-three punch down the middle. This coupled with a couple of potential depth centers in the system and I think the Jets are set at C for the next while. Chevy's grade is a solid B. Of he could find a dominant number 1 his grade would be an A.

LW: Ladd and Kane are two excellent LW and with Ehlers in the system our LW's look strong. If Kane stays and Ehlers develops as expected and the team reups Ladd. We should have a very strong and diverse left side.

Potential issues:

Ladd doesn't reup.
Kane gets moved out.
Ehlers busts.

Chevy's grade is a B duento uncertainty surrounding each of his left wings.

RW:
Positives a legit number 1 RW in Wheeler locked in at a fair rate.

Weaknesses:

Little depth on the system.
Frolik is eligable to walk at the end of the year.

Overall grade C minus.

As a whole:

Chevy looks to have done well at putting together a potential alkstar defense. He has also assembeled a quality core of centers and potentially has a very strong core of LW if some of the uncertainties are addressed.

Areas that need to addressed:

Goaltending right now is not at an acceptable level. While the future looks bright goalies are unpredictable. This has been Chevy's biggest blunder to date.

Our RW depth is still very weak and will need to continue to be addressed.

Fourth line is adequate with the addition of Galiardi but the Jets will need a couple of prospects to graduate and assume depth roles.

Overall grade is a C. Itnshoukd be higher but his failure to act on Pavelic keeps down.

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08-07-2014, 10:27 AM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Yup. I'm reasonably happy with our D (would like another top 4, or I hope to heck Morrissey pushes his way into the lineup), I'm happy with our forward crew, but our goaltending is such a question mark. Overly simplistic, but I think if you put someone like Luongo or Lundqvist (or even an average goalie) in the net, paired with Hutch, we're a playoff contender.

Always comes full circle to our largest issue. And I said I didn't want to talk about it anymore, but it seems it can't be helped.
I don't want to talk about it anymore either but there it is.

This off-season in total has had this kind of Twilight Zone look to it. It is as if Chevy sat down after last season and did an evaluation. He realized that with just a few smart moves (not brilliant just ordinary intelligent moves) he could have a winner. He then said to himself "but it will only be year 4 and the plan says we begin to win in year 7 so I will carefully avoid those moves."

There are definite 'ifs' with the rest of the team. Will Morrissey make it? If he does how good is he as a rookie? Will O'Dell successfully step up to be a legitimate 3rd line winger? Will any other rookies make the team? How well will Perreault fit? But I am pretty optimistic about all of those things. As long as we don't suffer a worse than normal injury problem we will have a pretty good team in all other areas. If Pavelec has something close to his career season (lets say .912) I think we do probably make the playoffs.

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08-07-2014, 10:38 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Jets are really in 'no mans land'. Too good to finish top 5, but not good enough to make the playoffs in a talent rich and deep division.

Arrrghhhhh!!!!
This is how I feel as well. For the record I would be perfectly happy watching a losing season, as I would enjoy watching our young prospects improve over the course of the year and know that the following year(s) have potential. As it stands now, we are mired in mediocrity.

**** or get off the pot, as my Dad used to say.

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08-07-2014, 11:00 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
There's always the possibility that injuries decimate our key players.

Ex: Little, Wheeler, Enstrom, Trouba miss significant time.

It's entirely possible that this team could skid into the bottom tier and be part of the McEichel sweepstakes
Little especially... Losing him would be horrible for this team.

Bye bye season.

If that means "Hi" McDavid it would be hard to call it a loss, but that will remain a long shot.

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08-07-2014, 11:04 AM
  #22
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Any of the top 3 guys in next years draft are Franchise players, Mcdavid,Eichel and Hanifin.

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08-07-2014, 11:11 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surixon View Post
I thought I'd try something a little differen't. I am going to grade based on how I see this team unfolding in a couple of years based by position:

Defense:

What we look to have:

3 top 4 defenseman under 23 years old and an older smart proven top pairing rearguard in Enstrom.

The top 4 has all the makings of being amongst the most balanced and dominant in the league in a couple of years.

All our extremely mobile.
There is balance between size and intellegience.
They all are or could be elite at transitioning to he puck up the ice.
All 4 can should be able to provide quality offense.

Stuart and one of our younger guys like Ellerby, Postma, Kitchen should be able to form a solid bottom pairing.

Potential issues:

Morrissey not developing as expected.

Bogosian's injury problems.

Chevy's grade on building the defense for the longterm is an A because I really like where we could be in a couple of years.
The Jets have one top four D man who is under 23. That one is Jacob Trouba. The would have two if Morrissey made the jump.

The Jets defense remains subpar. Giving the group a long term A because they might be good eventually is a bit of a reach. The D group is worse than it was when the team arrived in Winnipeg.

I agree that Trouba is a nice building block, I really like Morrissey and I have long been a fan of Toby, but a lot of things have to go right for this group to become "amongst the most balanced and dominant in the league." Plenty of teams have better players and quality prospects.

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08-07-2014, 11:13 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Any of the top 3 guys in next years draft are Franchise players, Mcdavid,Eichel and Hanifin.
There are a couple others who might be too, but I can't see the Jets landing in the bottom three without a lottery win.

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08-07-2014, 11:19 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Jets are really in 'no mans land'. Too good to finish top 5, but not good enough to make the playoffs in a talent rich and deep division.

Arrrghhhhh!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
It's starting to feel that way, and it seems like the worst feeling to have.
This is pretty well how I feel. We've got a core group here plus a couple promising youngsters, but don't do enough to bring the team as a whole to the next level. We sign this UFA or that UFA each summer to fill a hole, but it's never enough. Now we add Perreault, but, like the last couple/few years, I just do not see it being "enough", but we will be oh so close (to the playoffs) in my opinion.

I still believe with a move or two to address some areas we could easily be a playoff team, and begin being one for hopefully years to come. Are we waiting for Ehlers, Morrissey, Lowry, Lipon, Kosmachuk, etc. to bring this group to the next level? and if so, will Ladd, Byfuglien, etc. be around to see it happen? We do enough to be "good" but not "good enough". What gets me is I think we're so close to being a consistent playoff team. I also think with a move or two to get us to that level, we would then be "there" for years to come, and not just one and done. We're close right now, but not close enough. And if we don't maximize (to a degree) what we have right now, then we begin losing pieces (Ladd, Byfuglien, etc). If the plan is to pond these guys off for younger pieces to support Scheifele, Trouba, etc. then I guess it is what it is and in time we'll see. I don't see why we cannot keep most of what we have intact and go from there, be a playoff team, hopefully a contender, etc.

We're in a tough spot here, in my opinion. With time, the picture may become clearer, or not. We will see. I just feel our current team is right there, right at the playoff line... so damn close we can smell it but we just won't have "enough" to taste it.

I've said it for a long time, but I do like this group, from Ladd, Wheeler, Kane, Little, Bogosian, Enstrom, etc.. to our young players in Scheifele and Trouba, I like our prospects in Ehlers, Morrissey, Hellebuyck, Petan, Lowry, O'Dell, Kosmachuk, Comrie, Glover, etc. I like where we are, where we could be headed, but with all this being said I think this group as is today, organization top to bottom, is ready to be a playoff team at the NHL level and be one for years to come, become a contender, etc. I'm just not sure if we're going to hitch on and go with Ladd, Wheeler, Little, Enstrom, Byfuglien or if we're going to wait for our prospects to save us and lift Scheifele, Trouba, etc. to the next level.

To me, we could begin doing it all right now, today, with this group and organization as it stands. I think we're close to "having it all" from the consistent playoff team, to eventual contender, to having a steady stream of prospects making way, etc. I think we're close to that level of organization who can compete for today, replenish for tomorrow, and continue competing. Being in that nice cycle.

And, to cap this off here, I don't think we need big, shiny, costly moves. We don't need to trade a 1st round pick, or Morrissey, or Lowry or Kosmachuk. Not even close. I think with one more quality top 9 forward + an average performance from our starting goaltender gets us to the playoffs. So, I'm not saying it's time to sell the farm and go for it, not by any means. A legitimate depth move here and there, respectable performance in net... and we're there, in my opinion.

It still intrigues me that on July 1st later in the afternoon after Perreault was signed, Chevy was interviewed and said he would like another top 6 forward. I do think he wants to maximize this group beginning today and see's how close we currently are. Easier said than done, I suppose.

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