HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Washington Capitals
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

View Poll Results: Do you even CORSI, bro???
chya 11 34.38%
nah 11 34.38%
wut 10 31.25%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
08-21-2014, 12:44 PM
  #1
ChibiPooky
Yay hockey!
 
ChibiPooky's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Fairfax, VA
Country: United States
Posts: 11,584
vCash: 500
All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

Neil Greenberg has confirmed that the Caps are the only team in the division without a Director of Analytics or similar position.



MOD NOTE: We recognize that not everyone is into deep statistical analysis. This is a thread for "extended stats" discussions. Stats can still be used in the general roster discussion to make a single point, but if someone wants to debate a player's statistical value ad nauseum, or engage in back and forth about the value of X or Y stat, it must go here. If you have extended analysis that applies in another thread, rather than jam up that thread with large charts and so forth you may want to link to a post here, or use a collapse tag in your original post. Contact a mod if you do not know how to do this.


Last edited by g00n: 01-09-2017 at 12:54 PM. Reason: Mod note added
ChibiPooky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 12:46 PM
  #2
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
Neil Greenberg has confirmed that the Caps are the only team in the division without a Director of Analytics or similar position.
So long as they don't hire Greenberg to fill that role...

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 01:12 PM
  #3
HunterSThompson
Registered User
 
HunterSThompson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 3,491
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Bit bummed about that. I was hoping he was willing to keep evolving with the times, like Quennville has in Chicago. Q really uses that stats to figure out his strengths and maximize the utility of his roster.

On the other hand, he does seem to be adopting some of the analytics-favored principles (no "checking line," focus on speed and possession, involving the defense in the play, allowing offensive defensemen to thrive against lower competition, etc).
As fancy stats go, he mentioned a situation in Nashville where a defenseman had a huge difference in ratio of dump ins after crossing the red line to controlled entries. By looking at stats they were able to notice a situation that maybe they hadn't noticed just by watching. He said the young d-man was basically playing cautious so as to not make a mistake. They were able to sit him down and get him to change.

He also mentioned a negative example. In the second period of a game, a line is tired and hemmed up deep in their own zone. They finally squeak the puck out and dump it after gaining the red line. He said that analytics guys would look at this is as not a good play because it was not a controlled entry, but every coach and every hockey mind out there would consider it a good play.

He also mentioned quality of competition as a big thing. Ovechkin is for the most part going up against other teams top pairing and top scoring line (since teams don't use checking lines anymore). It is impossible to compare his analytics to anyone else that isn't in that same position.

HunterSThompson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 02:04 PM
  #4
g00n
Global Moderator
♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬
 
g00n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 16,583
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by HunterSThompson View Post
As fancy stats go, he mentioned a situation in Nashville where a defenseman had a huge difference in ratio of dump ins after crossing the red line to controlled entries. By looking at stats they were able to notice a situation that maybe they hadn't noticed just by watching. He said the young d-man was basically playing cautious so as to not make a mistake. They were able to sit him down and get him to change.

He also mentioned a negative example. In the second period of a game, a line is tired and hemmed up deep in their own zone. They finally squeak the puck out and dump it after gaining the red line. He said that analytics guys would look at this is as not a good play because it was not a controlled entry, but every coach and every hockey mind out there would consider it a good play.

He also mentioned quality of competition as a big thing. Ovechkin is for the most part going up against other teams top pairing and top scoring line (since teams don't use checking lines anymore). It is impossible to compare his analytics to anyone else that isn't in that same position.
Spot on from BT. Vindication for those of us who have argued these exact points. Gloat gloat. Sad that Hendy was victimized by fancy stat extremists.

But seriously, in that ONE pre-season event/post we got more detailed information out of BT than Oates gave up in 2 years. And 99.999% of what I read in that summary is very encouraging. Thank you for posting it.

g00n is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 02:24 PM
  #5
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
That sounds like an appeal to authority, g00n.

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 02:35 PM
  #6
ChibiPooky
Yay hockey!
 
ChibiPooky's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Fairfax, VA
Country: United States
Posts: 11,584
vCash: 500
Actually, analytics guys would completely ignore that play, as it's a line change situation (which I personally don't like).

Quality of Competition is one of the biggest "other" #fancystats out there, though I have my beef with how it's calculated.

But personally I don't want Trotz to be a statistician. It's enough for me if he accepts that these stats exist and have uses, and can find ways to use them (which he has in the past). I've always said that you can't coach to stats and that includes these. Coach guys to play good hockey.

ChibiPooky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 03:08 PM
  #7
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
Trotz's point is flawed, beyond the line change aspect. Analytics doesn't say "always commit [action X] since it's always advantageous." Analytics can be useful for measuring which types of plays are more frequently successful. Nobody is arguing the puck should never be dumped, or that every dump is a "bad play." A dump in can be the correct play, but the more frequently you dump it in (forced or otherwise), the lower the likelihood of your team's success. Most simply put, the "bad play" in Trotz's example already occurred, when the line became hemmed in and tired in their own zone.

No, you shouldn't coach to increase your stats. For instance, analytics disciples would not argue for artificially inflating your possession metrics by taking wasteful shots (ie, taking pot shots from center ice). That doesn't actually increase your win percentage. However, a coach can use the stats supplied to them by qualified analysts to increase their results. Look at how Quenneville builds and deploys his lines and defense pairs. How he maximizes Duncan Keith's utility by not playing him on the shutdown pairing.

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 03:15 PM
  #8
HunterSThompson
Registered User
 
HunterSThompson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 3,491
vCash: 500
Please let's not take this opportunity to break into another fancy stats/analytics debate (I know that's not what anyone is trying to do), but let's refrain. It is like the Redskins name debate or politics, nobody's mind will be changed from talking.

I will say, however, that there are a multitude of ways a team can be hemmed inside their own zone and be tired and also not have committed any bad play, in which case getting out of that zone without an icing, committing a penalty or surrendering a goal against is not a mere nothing play, but a great play.

HunterSThompson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 03:59 PM
  #9
g00n
Global Moderator
♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬
 
g00n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 16,583
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
That sounds like an appeal to authority, g00n.
I know you're half joking but you're also half serious. To which I would say, not necessarily. I'm not saying just listen to BT because he's BT, which would be an A2A. I'm saying BT and some of us have stated the exact same things and provided the same reasoning. So there's additional credibility. Other coaches might disagree.

Authoritative opinions and appeal to authority logical fallacies are not the same things.

g00n is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 04:28 PM
  #10
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
Can we just all agree to stop calling corsi, fenwick, zone starts, etc. "fancystats." They're not particularly fancy. QoC, GVT, and other calculated stats I could buy as "fancy," but possession and deployment metrics are pretty darn simple. What some of the teams and consultants do is certainly "fancy," but the public is not privy to their methods.

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 08:08 PM
  #11
Millhaus
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 7,389
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Can we just all agree to stop calling corsi, fenwick, zone starts, etc. "fancystats."
No. Especially when you aren't proposing an alternative. Fancystats works just fine IMO...

Millhaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 09:06 PM
  #12
HunterSThompson
Registered User
 
HunterSThompson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 3,491
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
No. Especially when you aren't proposing an alternative. Fancystats works just fine IMO...
Ostentatious analytics has a nice ring.

HunterSThompson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-21-2014, 09:27 PM
  #13
RandyHolt
Registered Loser
 
RandyHolt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Country: Poland
Posts: 29,986
vCash: 50
It is interesting that we are the only team without a dedicated stat geek guru. Make Blaine do it.

Maybe they have someone dedicated to monitor plain poor simple unfancy stats and its just too much keeping an eye on plus minus and Brouwers hits, for him to take on additional numbers.

RandyHolt is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 09:23 AM
  #14
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
No. Especially when you aren't proposing an alternative. Fancystats works just fine IMO...
Call them what they are. Fenwick/Corsi are possession metrics. Zone starts are deployment metrics. QoC/QoT/etc are utilization metrics. They aren't fancy nor should they always be lumped in together.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoGoGrabo View Post
Latta in for Beagle since they win the same amount of draws and Latta is 100000x more productive with the puck than Beagle. Biznasty can rotate in with Brown.
Was basing the Beagle choice on Trotz's comments about older guys on the 4th line. We haven't signed Biznasty.

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 09:36 AM
  #15
strungout
Professional Killer
 
strungout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Maryland
Posts: 31,502
vCash: 500
F'ing Stats.

strungout is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 11:12 AM
  #16
ChibiPooky
Yay hockey!
 
ChibiPooky's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Fairfax, VA
Country: United States
Posts: 11,584
vCash: 500
I'd rather have no stat guy than a half coach half stat guy. Like a centaur.

ChibiPooky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 12:06 PM
  #17
HeyMattyB
Weaponized Sincerity
 
HeyMattyB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 802
vCash: 500
LOL. "You monsters show my precious fancystats the respect they deserve!"

HeyMattyB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 12:09 PM
  #18
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
I want a coach who's willing to utilize the analytics presented to him.

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 01:01 PM
  #19
g00n
Global Moderator
♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬♩♪♫♬
 
g00n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 16,583
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
I want a coach who's willing to utilize the analytics presented to him.
I'm pretty sure that's what BT does, no? How those stats are used is up to the coach. Otherwise why even have a coach? Just let stat guys run the team, right?

g00n is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 03:32 PM
  #20
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by g00n View Post
I'm pretty sure that's what BT does, no? How those stats are used is up to the coach. Otherwise why even have a coach? Just let stat guys run the team, right?
Not all coaches value the analytics. Oates and Hunter are two pretty good examples of coaches who either ignored the stats or made decisions that ran counter to them.

It also doesn't help that the team apparently doesn't have an analytics department (though that doesn't exclude the possibility of contract work or consulting).

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 06:02 PM
  #21
Millhaus
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 7,389
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
It also doesn't help that the team apparently doesn't have an analytics department...
Do you really think teams need a fancystats 'department'?

Millhaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 06:34 PM
  #22
BrooklynCapsFan
Registered User
 
BrooklynCapsFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 18,216
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Do you really think teams need a fancystats 'department'?
I do and I'm not even a true believer. Look no further than our abysmal pro scouting to see that the eye test and a gut feeling ain't cutting it.

BrooklynCapsFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 10:22 PM
  #23
Millhaus
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 7,389
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
I do and I'm not even a true believer. Look no further than our abysmal pro scouting to see that the eye test and a gut feeling ain't cutting it.
I'm not saying they shouldn't have a fancystats guy. But a department...?

Millhaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-22-2014, 11:48 PM
  #24
Hivemind
We're Touched
 
Hivemind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 24,225
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Do you really think teams need a fancystats 'department'?
If you're going to mine your own data, having more than one person would be all but essential. Even if you don't, a lot of teams have multiple people involved with different skills and responsibilities. Some teams split up the analysts for the GM staff and the coaching staff. Toronto just brought in at least 3 people to form their analytics dept.

Hivemind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-23-2014, 12:05 AM
  #25
SimplySensational
Heard of Hough
 
SimplySensational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: VA
Country: United States
Posts: 19,339
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
If you're going to mine your own data, having more than one person would be all but essential. Even if you don't, a lot of teams have multiple people involved with different skills and responsibilities. Some teams split up the analysts for the GM staff and the coaching staff. Toronto just brought in at least 3 people to form their analytics dept.
Analytics department=getting data that would of been available on Extra Skater for free.

SimplySensational is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:42 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. @2017 All Rights Reserved.