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New CBA and the trade value of picks

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09-27-2005, 05:22 PM
  #1
Darth Milbury
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New CBA and the trade value of picks

Are picks worth more or less right now than in the past? Teams will now have fewer chances to draft (only 7 picks) and there will be a premium on players who 1) won't soon hit UFA status, 2) Will be inexpensive.

But... If you draft a guy, and he plays another year or two of junior, a year or two of AHL, and then a year or two of development. You'll only have a few years of peak performance before he has the chance of reaching UFA status. Seems like you are putting a lot on the line with very little payback.

Thoughts?

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09-27-2005, 05:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Are picks worth more or less right now than in the past? Teams will now have fewer chances to draft (only 7 picks) and there will be a premium on players who 1) won't soon hit UFA status, 2) Will be inexpensive.

But... If you draft a guy, and he plays another year or two of junior, a year or two of AHL, and then a year or two of development. You'll only have a few years of peak performance before he has the chance of reaching UFA status. Seems like you are putting a lot on the line with very little payback.

Thoughts?
Well you would get at least 4 seasons out of him. Because junior and AHL years do not count when you are figuring years accrued for free agency purposes.

So if a guy is drafted at 18.
Plays 2 years in junior
Then plays 2 years in the AHL

At the age of 22 the player would still have to play 4 or 5 seasons before becoming eligible for UFA status. Goalies would probably be the most likely to hit their peak at about the time they became UFA's.

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Old
09-27-2005, 05:48 PM
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Darth Milbury
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AHL years do count, I believe.

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09-27-2005, 06:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
AHL years do count, I believe.
Why would they? I have not seen one piece of evidence to support that theory.

Definition of an "accrued season" in the old CBA.

Quote:

Quote:

"Accrued Season"
means any League Year during which a player was on a Club's

Playing Roster for 40 (30 if the Player is a goalie) or more regular season NHL games, provided that,
for the purposes of calculating an Accrued Season under this Agreement, games missed due to a
hockey-related injury incurred while on a Club's Playing Roster shall count as games played for
purposes of calculating an Accrued Season but only during the League Year in which the injury was
incurred and a maximum of one additional season.



Last edited by Captain Ron: 09-27-2005 at 06:17 PM.
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Old
09-27-2005, 06:36 PM
  #5
Darth Milbury
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AHL seasons are counted as "pro" seasons in the new CBA.

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09-27-2005, 06:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
AHL seasons are counted as "pro" seasons in the new CBA.
According to whom? I am not saying you are wrong. I just have not seen anything that would indicate that.

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09-27-2005, 06:42 PM
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Superstar Shane
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Does it really matter? Either way 7 professional seasons after you're 20 still puts you at 27 and thus UFA age. The only difference would be if a guy played enough games to qualify as a teenager and then spent a year or 2 in the AHL (like Fleury, for instance).

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Old
09-27-2005, 06:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongebob
According to whom? I am not saying you are wrong. I just have not seen anything that would indicate that.
Maybe somebody else here can chime in with some insight? Although, ASAB is ultimately right. Either way, if you figure on 1 - 2 years in the AHL, and 1 - 2 years in the NHL before becoming a prime contributor, the average 1st rounder is going to be 25 or so before he begins having a major impact. And, then, a few years later, he is gone via UFA. So, why invest in picks?

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09-27-2005, 06:50 PM
  #9
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I think that picks are worth a little more simply because of the payroll and the cap. You need to get rid of a player, teams know you have to (ala Devils), and so they use picks instead of players because they know that they have the team in a bind...So either they get a draft pick or they get hit with the cap...

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09-27-2005, 06:59 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Maybe somebody else here can chime in with some insight? Although, ASAB is ultimately right. Either way, if you figure on 1 - 2 years in the AHL, and 1 - 2 years in the NHL before becoming a prime contributor, the average 1st rounder is going to be 25 or so before he begins having a major impact. And, then, a few years later, he is gone via UFA. So, why invest in picks?
True, basically by age 27 the guy is going to be a UFA. But look at players like Spezza. He could have at least 4 good years before becoming an NHL player.

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09-27-2005, 07:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
And, then, a few years later, he is gone via UFA. So, why invest in picks?
Not neccessarily. Yes the player with be eligible for UFA status, but it doesn't mean they are gone. High profile young players such as Vincent Lecavalier, Rick Nash, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Patrick Marleau and more have already signed long term contracts into their UFA years in order to remain with their current teams. If you treat your players well, provide them with a winning atmosphere, and pay them fairly, more often than not they will remain with the current club. IMO we're are going to see a trend in the NHL were the grass isn't always greener on the other side of UFA. Smart GM's will be able to draft their teams and keep them together through their prime years.

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09-27-2005, 08:10 PM
  #12
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ahl yrs don't count..it's yrs of services to the CLUB...

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09-27-2005, 08:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Komisarek8
ahl yrs don't count..it's yrs of services to the CLUB...
I don't believe that either. Trading a player won't set back his free agency.

From everything I've heard, I've been under the impression that it's NHL seasons (40+ games) that count. Not saying that's 100% the case, but I think the proof lies with the players who would have been free agents this year if it were simply pro seasons. I'm too lazy to look up any players this applies to, and too dumb to remember any I already knew.

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09-27-2005, 08:26 PM
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My understanding is that AHL years dont count for two way contracts. The exception is the lockout year. It was negotiated in the CBA that players contracts would not be honored for the lost year (therefore all the free agents this summer), but for players who already played in the NHL, the lost year would count towards their years of service for becoming free agents.

I could be wrong, but thats just what I remember from the CBA nonsense.

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Old
09-27-2005, 08:27 PM
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Darth Milbury
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I can't really find the answer to this. But, TSn.ca talks about "years of service." So, at what point does it become a "year of service." If a player is in the AHL for 79 games and then players one game in the NHL, is that a year? There must be some firm rules about this.

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09-27-2005, 08:28 PM
  #16
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The value of picks remains the same. The value of pretty much every player in the league has gone down.

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09-27-2005, 08:41 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
I can't really find the answer to this. But, TSn.ca talks about "years of service." So, at what point does it become a "year of service." If a player is in the AHL for 79 games and then players one game in the NHL, is that a year? There must be some firm rules about this.
The previous CBA said that a player did not receive an "accrued year" of service unless he played in at least 40 NHL games. I think that has remained the same.

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Old
09-27-2005, 09:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Are picks worth more or less right now than in the past? Teams will now have fewer chances to draft (only 7 picks) and there will be a premium on players who 1) won't soon hit UFA status, 2) Will be inexpensive.

But... If you draft a guy, and he plays another year or two of junior, a year or two of AHL, and then a year or two of development. You'll only have a few years of peak performance before he has the chance of reaching UFA status. Seems like you are putting a lot on the line with very little payback.

Thoughts?
That still leaves you with 3-4 years of peak service though, and you get those without having to sign someone to a 3-4 year deal. Which is very useful in an era where contracts and flexibility matter so much. Plus, you can always trade their rights, before they reach UFA and get more value out of them. Also, since picks have value without having a contract attached to them, they are much easier to move, giving them more value. High picks that can contribute even earlier will probably have even more value, but then again, their value always seemed to fluctuate greatly.

I think drafting character and role players will be more important than it was. Role players usually can contribute earlier than other players. And I feel that character plays are more likely to sign extensions past their UFA years with the team that drafted them -- not a universal of course, but just in general. Goalies and defensemen on the other hand, who have historically had a longer development path, would make less sense to draft. It's not a half bad draft strategy to draft overaged role palyers who are ready to contribute right away. So mid-late round picks will also be worth more.

But of course, as always, it will come down to the GMs in question and the situation of the trade.

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