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The Avs Advanced Stats Thread [Now with a Fresh, "New Title" look!]

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Old
10-06-2014, 11:53 PM
  #51
BrickAHL
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Originally Posted by kikkerlaika View Post
They still allowed the 4th most shots against (unblocked and missed), only Toronto, Buffalo and Edmonton allowed more.

Is anyone surprised that the skill is there? Problem isn't with the forwards.
I'm curious as to how many of those shots against came from far away and from the outside.

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10-07-2014, 12:19 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by BrickAHL View Post
I'm curious as to how many of those shots against came from far away and from the outside.
You can play around here.

Most came from around the net, it appears (relative to the league average):



Shot attempts for:


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10-07-2014, 12:54 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by kikkerlaika View Post
They still allowed the 4th most shot attempts against , only Toronto, Buffalo and Edmonton allowed more.

Is anyone surprised that the skill is there? Problem isn't with the forwards.
This is literally the first time I've heard this...we've never had a Corsi lesson.

This discussion is about possession. I've seen the charts before. Looks like tough angle shots and shots from the outside, minimal shots from the slot area. Obviously the front net shots are a problem.


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10-07-2014, 01:06 AM
  #54
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This is literally the first time I've heard this...we've never had a Corsi lesson.

This discussion is about possession. I've seen the charts before. Looks like tough angle shots and shots from the outside, minimal shots from the slot area. Obviously the front net shots are a problem.
League average includes the bad teams. Teams like Chicago, LA, St.Louis usually have around/below 0.8-0.7.

Possession includes the opponent, no? Even if the Avalanche spend so much time in the offensive zone, having so many shot attempts against is not somethig you want.

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10-07-2014, 04:47 AM
  #55
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i've never seen those one times anywhere.

seems interesting but i doubt avs where that good at puck possession; but still much better than that 4th lastor so that they were in fenwick and corsi.

and it's referenced by mike kelly and so far (?) by him only and that guy is a donky.

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10-07-2014, 08:19 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by kikkerlaika View Post
League average includes the bad teams. Teams like Chicago, LA, St.Louis usually have around/below 0.8-0.7.

Possession includes the opponent, no? Even if the Avalanche spend so much time in the offensive zone, having so many shot attempts against is not somethig you want.
Avs were 12th in puck possession last year which accounts for the defensive zone time and 5th in offensive zone puck possession last year.

I don't think any system is designed to allow shots against. Avs had trouble breaking up the cycle due to slow defenders. But it's not surprising that Avs allow more shots from the points than other teams. Avs played a strict man-on-man system down low that rarely left players open in the slot compared to Sacco's system, that allowed fewer shots but more high quality scoring chances.

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10-07-2014, 08:44 AM
  #57
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http://jibblescribbits.com/2014-arti...i-defense.html

sorry for ruining the thread little more hench but i guess this is the best place to post this data. only for first half of the season though, zone exit data.

which was hejda's better half and he still comes up awful. holden is surprisingly good. could develop into real legit player if he picks it up where he left off last season.

barrie and EJ are of course pretty good too.

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10-07-2014, 09:03 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by InjuredChoker View Post
i've never seen those one times anywhere.

seems interesting but i doubt avs where that good at puck possession; but still much better than that 4th lastor so that they were in fenwick and corsi.

and it's referenced by mike kelly and so far (?) by him only and that guy is a donky.
So you think the NHLnetwork just made up the times?

There is no denying actual time of possession measured by time spent with possession of the puck. That's just one of those stats that is very straight forward like goals scored. The number is not going to be skewed. If you have the puck for 10 minutes you have the puck for 10 minutes.

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10-07-2014, 09:08 AM
  #59
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i'm skeptical on anything that mike kelly says.

i'm also skeptical as that data isn't published anywhere.

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10-07-2014, 09:10 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InjuredChoker View Post
i'm skeptical on anything that mike kelly says.

i'm also skeptical as that data isn't published anywhere.
I wonder where those numbers came from as well. It goes along with the theory that shots =/= puck possession.

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10-07-2014, 09:25 AM
  #61
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It still makes no sense to me to use Corsi as a proxy of possession when one could just track possession time.

I've also tried to argue that a teams' particular style of play skews the numbers.

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10-07-2014, 09:31 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
It still makes no sense to me to use Corsi as a proxy of possession when one could just track possession time.

I've also tried to argue that a teams' particular style of play skews the numbers.
Because Corsi is already being tracked, possession time not so much. It's a metric born out of a lack of statistics that showed some accuracy in a day where Detroit's possession teams were dominating the league. A team which maximized their shots for and limited their shots against.

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10-07-2014, 11:50 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Avs were 12th in puck possession last year which accounts for the defensive zone time and 5th in offensive zone puck possession last year.

I don't think any system is designed to allow shots against. Avs had trouble breaking up the cycle due to slow defenders. But it's not surprising that Avs allow more shots from the points than other teams. Avs played a strict man-on-man system down low that rarely left players open in the slot compared to Sacco's system, that allowed fewer shots but more high quality scoring chances.
I remember pretty clearly an article/interview way back in the Avs' heyday, where Hartley said something along the lines of "…with Roy in goal, who cares about how many shots against there are, as long as they come from the outside and he sees them?"(sic). Clearly, I'm paraphrasing that - but the point back then was that given the Avs had a top whatever# goaltender in the league, give the other team the low percentage shots, but take care of the passing lanes, rebounds, front of the net, etc. Perhaps Roy has that same philosophy?

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10-07-2014, 02:18 PM
  #64
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Unbelievable, a friggin Ryan Lambert shot at the Avs somehow made it into a Denver Post article about Varly.

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10-07-2014, 02:21 PM
  #65
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Unbelievable, a friggin Ryan Lambert shot at the Avs somehow made it into a Denver Post article about Varly.
Stupid loves company.

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10-08-2014, 11:48 AM
  #66
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Posted this in the numbers forum but might as well post it here.

The predictive value of Corsi and Fenwick is being exaggerated by the advanced stat community.

This whole off-season we have seen predictions that team x will do better/worse in 2014/15 because of their shot attempt based statistics in 2013/14. But the correlation between past shot attempt based statistics and future results is low.

Here is the correlation between some stats and the point total for a team the year after (2007/08 to 2013/14).

Correlation between ES close CF% and point total the year after: 0,35
Correlation between ES close FF% and point total the year after: 0,41
Correlation between point total the year before and the year after: 0,39
Correlation between GF% the year before and point total the year after: 0,41
Correlation between goal differential the year before and point total the year after: 0.4

As you can see, neither stat have all that great predictive power. Also, point total and goal for ratio the year before has as good predictive power as the shot attempt based stats (Corsi and Fenwick). You might as well use goal differential or point total in 2013/14 to predict how teams will do in 2014/15. They're as good at predicting the future as Fenwick is and better than Corsi is.

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10-09-2014, 09:35 AM
  #67
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Alright... first game tonight, who wants to help track something?

I'm going to track the Avs actual puck possession for sure tonight... seeing how that goes, I might also track zone entires/denied zone entries.

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10-09-2014, 09:47 AM
  #68
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I can try to help. Might have to watch on replay if it's hard to track and watch but I'll see if I can help out. What do you need?

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10-09-2014, 09:54 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
I can try to help. Might have to watch on replay if it's hard to track and watch but I'll see if I can help out. What do you need?
Maybe denied zone entries (either dump ins or stopped) by the Avalanche... if possible, broke out by player.

IMO the most important stats to look at are actual puck possession, where the shots come from (the shot charts out there already are probably good enough, even if they are not 100% accurate), and zone entries for and against.

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10-09-2014, 09:55 AM
  #70
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Ok, I'll see what I can do!

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10-09-2014, 09:55 AM
  #71
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I've been planning on doing a more accurate +\-. Wish I had the time to do more. But with a toddler I just don't have enough time review/study/track a full game. Not unless you guys want the data 3 days from now, lol.

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10-09-2014, 09:56 AM
  #72
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Ok, I'll see what I can do!
Thanks!

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I've been planning on doing a more accurate +\-. Wish I had the time to do more. But with a toddler I just don't have enough time review/study/track a full game. Not unless you guys want the data 3 days from now, lol.
I'm interested in what you mean by a more accurate +/-

With all this data... it won't mean much until a number of games are played. This will be more of a data warehouse for a while, and then analysis will be run. Delays don't really matter.

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10-09-2014, 10:42 AM
  #73
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Thanks!



I'm interested in what you mean by a more accurate +/-

With all this data... it won't mean much until a number of games are played. This will be more of a data warehouse for a while, and then analysis will be run. Delays don't really matter.
Just breaking down how each goal is scored. Figure out who actual has a hand in goals and goals against. Instead of the ridiculous idea that everyone on the ice was responsible. I love the idea of +\-. When done right it could be a great stat showing a players 2 way game. But it's just straight worthless right now.

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10-09-2014, 10:45 AM
  #74
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Just breaking down how each goal is scored. Figure out who actual has a hand in goals and goals against. Instead of the ridiculous idea that everyone on the ice was responsible. I love the idea of +\-. When done right it could be a great stat showing a players 2 way game. But it's just straight worthless right now.
Would this involve everyone involved in the play or everyone who was at fault for the goal?

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Old
10-09-2014, 12:12 PM
  #75
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at fault.

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