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The Avs Advanced Stats Thread [Now with a Fresh, "New Title" look!]

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Old
10-09-2014, 12:56 PM
  #76
Tweaky
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Too hard to figure out who (all) is really at fault on a goal. Does a winger out high bear any responsibility when he edges in to pressure the half boards, and the pass goes to his point. What if he stays high and the pass goes across tot he far point?

Or penalty box side winger is down low and the puck pops out on the bench side. The Dman that is his assignment goes for a change. He gets new guy covered, but they are still in the neutral zone when the puck goes in. He was not back to help create a man advantage in his zone. Is he partially responsible?

Or how about one of those infamous 3 guys following the puck carrier behind the net...one of those guys is doing his job, the other two are not. Who decides which (some say slot, near post and behind are center; others say everything that side below the dot is defenseman; when winger is first forward back, he takes over center responsibilities until a clean transition can be made).

Or when someone does a shift like MacK's famous one (or anyone of a bunch of those we used to see from Forsberg). Everyone on the ice had a chance at the puck, including guys that may have changed early in the play...do they all get a - ?

The more accurate +/- is a good idea...but mighty subjective, and very subject to interpretation.

I would be willing to help with this or any other stat...but I need to figure out recording live streams...plus the video is usually less than HD, so I might be prone to mistakes.

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10-09-2014, 01:28 PM
  #77
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i'll track scoring chances and i could also track controlled entries for avs and against, on team level if needed.

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10-09-2014, 01:36 PM
  #78
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Subjective? yes. Still tons better than how its currently done though. It typically shouldnt be too difficult to get a good idea of who messes up.

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10-09-2014, 03:17 PM
  #79
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Had the stats crowd realized that Corsi is just glorified +/-, especially on the individual level.

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10-09-2014, 03:18 PM
  #80
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Think I have the stream recording figured out, just have to hope that the streams are solid (they often are not). Let me know if you want me to track stuff.

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10-09-2014, 08:59 PM
  #81
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So.... overestimated my ability to track some things and still enjoy the game. I'm only tracking 'actual' puck possession tonight. I'll have to devise something else next go round. After the first... The number didn't look good for the Avs... big surprise.

The Avs had the puck for 25:07. There are probably ~ 2 minutes where nobody had possession. So Minnesota had the puck for 33ish minutes. Obvious result.


Last edited by henchman24: 10-09-2014 at 10:37 PM.
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10-09-2014, 11:20 PM
  #82
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Saw on Twitter that Brad Stuart's Fenwick rating for the night was -22.

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10-09-2014, 11:22 PM
  #83
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My feed was crap, but I have periods 1 and 2 recorded. Skipped bits though, like the first goal.


Last edited by Tweaky: 10-09-2014 at 11:22 PM. Reason: typing >> me
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10-09-2014, 11:28 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
Saw on Twitter that Brad Stuart's Fenwick rating for the night was -22.
even strength it was only -20.

guenin was the best D at - 8

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10-10-2014, 12:43 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
Had the stats crowd realized that Corsi is just glorified +/-, especially on the individual level.
No, because that's not true.

You keep trying to say the stats crowd looks at Corsi and nothing else. If someone's doing that, they're not stats people.

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10-10-2014, 01:01 AM
  #86
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How is it not, that's what Corsi is.

Believe it or not I'm a numbers person myself. I would be the last person to dismiss statistics. What I don't like is other people drawing conclusions and speaking for the numbers. If numbers are doing their job then all they need to do is be presented and everyone understands.

I get that there are thousands of different ways to look at advanced stats as evidenced by those sites with 50 rows x 50 columns. But that's not what's in the mainstream media. The stats crowd is in large part those that write those little articles and the people that recite them. I get that there is a subsection of people who dig into the numbers and have a very broad understanding of them. Their opinions would probably be interesting but they are not mainstream.

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10-10-2014, 03:59 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
So.... overestimated my ability to track some things and still enjoy the game. I'm only tracking 'actual' puck possession tonight. I'll have to devise something else next go round. After the first... The number didn't look good for the Avs... big surprise.

The Avs had the puck for 25:07. There are probably ~ 2 minutes where nobody had possession. So Minnesota had the puck for 33ish minutes. Obvious result.
yah, same thing.

i tracked controlled entries for about half way through the game and noticed the same... ok, this was a game that was about impossible to enjoy anyway... controllied entries were like 16-5 for the wild when i stopped.

scoring chances ES were 3-20. pathetic. first one game up halfway through the game. wild had double digit numbers by that point. cliche and hejda had two of those chances.

i think i can track coring chances all season long. it's relatively easy. i've tracked them before so i have a system/method already and the #s won't be skewed by that during the season.

i've seen that corsi and SCs should correlate by 90% at the end of the season, we'll see how close it gets.

an really, we had the puck 25 mins??!! felt like 2 mins was lot closer.

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10-10-2014, 11:19 AM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
How is it not, that's what Corsi is.

Believe it or not I'm a numbers person myself. I would be the last person to dismiss statistics. What I don't like is other people drawing conclusions and speaking for the numbers. If numbers are doing their job then all they need to do is be presented and everyone understands.

I get that there are thousands of different ways to look at advanced stats as evidenced by those sites with 50 rows x 50 columns. But that's not what's in the mainstream media. The stats crowd is in large part those that write those little articles and the people that recite them. I get that there is a subsection of people who dig into the numbers and have a very broad understanding of them. Their opinions would probably be interesting but they are not mainstream.
No, it's not. Plus/minus is heavily, heavily dependent on goaltending, among other things. An example is Cory Sarich's plus/minus rating was one of the best on the team, but you and I both know he wasn't any great shakes defensively.

Remember, Corsi was developed as a way to better gauge goaltending ability, it just so happened that it offered better insight as to player performance as well. It's a much, much better indicator than plus/minus, but it certainly isn't the end-all be-all of a player's worth. Marty St. Louis is not a good possession player, but no one in the stats community would ever say he's a bad player, rather, they did some research and saw he contributes in other ways.

So you're complaining about the people who glance at the fancy stats without a real understanding of them and then go spouting off on them. I agree, I don't like those people either. But that doesn't mean the stats themselves are bad, just that those people are idiots who found a new shiny toy and have to show it to everyone in the general vicinity.

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10-10-2014, 11:41 AM
  #89
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I just can't track and watch. I'd have to go back and watch to get numbers, which I'm willing to do in some capacity but I wasn't watching that mess again.

Scoring chances would be a big help to sorting out the advanced stats.

When you calculate possession time is it overall or in the offensive zone? Do PPs count in that or separate.

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10-10-2014, 11:43 AM
  #90
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Just like +/-, corsi is also heavily influenced by everyone on the ice, not just the individual player being discussed. Hell, player A might not ever control the puck, but because he plays with other players who do control the puck very well then player A still has great corsi despite his teammates being the ones who control the puck and keep possession of it. Just look at PaP. He apparently had the best possession stats on the team last year, or close to it. Of our top 6 players, PaP probably had possession of the puck less than anyone else. But because he got to play with guys like Duchene, RoR, Lando and Staz, and he got sheltered minutes (offensive) compared to everyone else in the top 6, his corsi looked the best, or close to it.

Corsi is a pretty inaccurate judge of possession for teams. It gets even worse when breaking it down to the individual level, because, just like +/-, it is influenced by how your teammates play.

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10-10-2014, 12:02 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
I just can't track and watch. I'd have to go back and watch to get numbers, which I'm willing to do in some capacity but I wasn't watching that mess again.

Scoring chances would be a big help to sorting out the advanced stats.

When you calculate possession time is it overall or in the offensive zone? Do PPs count in that or separate.
Yup, shot quality is the Holy Grail of fancy stats. They figure out a way to track that properly, even Brian Burke won't be able to resist.

I don't know if they can track possession by zone, if so it's a pretty tedious process, watching game tape and basically tracking it manually, which some people are actually doing. One thing I like to see w/fancy stats is how many defensive zone faceoffs vs. offensive zone starts certain players get. We know Roy likes to give players like Barrie almost exclusive offensive zone starts. Unfortunately given the lineup he has to shelter his third and fourth lines, which hampers his ability to throw his best offensive players out there for more scoring chances.


Quote:
Originally Posted by StayAtHomeAv View Post
Just like +/-, corsi is also heavily influenced by everyone on the ice, not just the individual player being discussed. Hell, player A might not ever control the puck, but because he plays with other players who do control the puck very well then player A still has great corsi despite his teammates being the ones who control the puck and keep possession of it. Just look at PaP. He apparently had the best possession stats on the team last year, or close to it. Of our top 6 players, PaP probably had possession of the puck less than anyone else. But because he got to play with guys like Duchene, RoR, Lando and Staz, and he got sheltered minutes (offensive) compared to everyone else in the top 6, his corsi looked the best, or close to it.

Corsi is a pretty inaccurate judge of possession for teams. It gets even worse when breaking it down to the individual level, because, just like +/-, it is influenced by how your teammates play.
That's why you can take a look at WOWY numbers when it comes to individuals. Much better way to discern what goes on. Again, it's not an end-all be-all to determine a player's worth, but gives you insight as to a player who might help drive possession you might not normally notice, or a player who is hampering the team in that department some might otherwise think is doing well out there.

For instance, I remember looking at the Avs' fancy stats, and I'm pretty sure Stastny had a poor Corsi rating overall, but when you saw how much his teammate's ratings jumped whenever he was on the ice you saw just how valuable he was from a possession perspective.

Conversely, you can take a look at someone like Jack MF Johnson in Columbus and see that he's little more than a very flashy turnover machine. I think the fancy stats crowd overdoes it a bit when they slag him--the guy is actually a great asset to have on the power play--but the adulation his supporters give him is largely misplaced.

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10-10-2014, 12:08 PM
  #92
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Oh, also, score effects are another way advanced stats can take shot totals and add context. Obviously when a team jumps out to a huge lead (except for last night) they usually let their foot off the gas, whereas the other team starts getting desperate and pushes harder, so shot totals get a little skewed then.

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10-10-2014, 12:20 PM
  #93
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This is the most annoying aspect of the advanced stats community. They are overselling their results, drawing conclusions that aren't supported by the data and then other parts of the community are using those claims as proof of the validity of advanced stats.
Sharks fan coming in peace. Just wanted to say I completely agree. There's a reason Sharks dominate possession numbers, but consistently have one of the lowest shooting %'s in the league over many years. It's not being "unlucky". All shots are not created equal.

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10-10-2014, 03:19 PM
  #94
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That is some ugly Corsi:

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spea...ation-1.103809

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10-10-2014, 03:52 PM
  #95
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Already an I told you so blurb from Cullen about the Avs? Like last night resembled the Avalanche in any way.

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10-10-2014, 11:57 PM
  #96
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Cullen doesn't really pepper his stuff with commentary like, say, Dellow or Lambert. He just states the obvious--the Avs have bad possession numbers, and for the first game of the season, it cost them dearly. I don't see any sort of "smugness" here. He's simply stating facts.

Not everyone touting Corsi is out to tear the Avs a new one.

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10-11-2014, 12:23 AM
  #97
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Yeah I bet it was tough to point out facts from that game.

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Old
10-11-2014, 09:34 AM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
Cullen doesn't really pepper his stuff with commentary like, say, Dellow or Lambert. He just states the obvious--the Avs have bad possession numbers, and for the first game of the season, it cost them dearly. I don't see any sort of "smugness" here. He's simply stating facts.

Not everyone touting Corsi is out to tear the Avs a new one.
Except we actually were not that bad at possession last year. Time wise, we were average.

Not sure if this game proves anything other than us sucking when our actual possession (time, not corsi) of the puck is not good like the other night (I assume, It certain felt like we never had the puck).

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10-11-2014, 10:51 PM
  #99
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This will be interesting for some... Even with Minnys PPs the Avs possessed the puck 31:12.

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10-12-2014, 12:32 AM
  #100
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What's the go to site now? A few have been shutdown and others don't appear to be updating.

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