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The Avs Advanced Stats Thread [Now with a Fresh, "New Title" look!]

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Old
10-12-2014, 12:39 AM
  #101
Freudian
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Originally Posted by Avs_19 View Post
What's the go to site now? A few have been shutdown and others don't appear to be updating.
http://war-on-ice.com/ does have games, but something about the team stats is buggy for me. I get a "Error: second argument must be a list" whatever that might mean. The interface isn't nearly as slick as extraskater had.

Avs won ES corsi/fenwick today with 57-43% or something like that but I never understood why just ES is important in advanced stats. You just have to look at the difference in how Avs and Wild play PP/PK to figure that Avs being outshot on special teams was fully deserved.

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10-12-2014, 12:48 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
http://war-on-ice.com/ does have games, but something about the team stats is buggy for me. I get a "Error: second argument must be a list" whatever that might mean. The interface isn't nearly as slick as extraskater had.

Avs won ES corsi/fenwick today with 57-43% or something like that but I never understood why just ES is important in advanced stats. You just have to look at the difference in how Avs and Wild play PP/PK to figure that Avs being outshot on special teams was fully deserved.
Are you saying what I think you're saying, did we just pick up a moral victory?!? Or at the very least a moral victory based on ES play?

Thanks for the site.

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10-12-2014, 01:21 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Avs_19 View Post
What's the go to site now? A few have been shutdown and others don't appear to be updating.
http://hockeystats.ca
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com
http://naturalstattrick.com


Last edited by BrooksBets: 10-12-2014 at 01:34 AM.
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10-12-2014, 02:43 AM
  #104
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So who is going to write the next Corsi Avs article based on one game? What? You mean they don't do that when the Avs win Corsi?

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10-12-2014, 02:49 AM
  #105
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Well, remember those pesky "score effects." The Wylde let way up on the gas after that 2nd goal and the Avs kept coming, so the shot differentials changed dramatically. I think Yeo is ultimately too conservative and that'll cost Minnesota down the road. But I've been wrong many times before.

I'll say this: I don't mind the Avs ignoring the analytics stuff if they focus on the aspects of their game that the fancy stats emphasize: Aggressive play in the neutral zone and at the blue line (I have to admit, apart from EJ getting a tad carried away, I was LOVING the added emphasis on standing guys up before they hit the zone), and using team speed to your advantage.

And it was nice to see Ryan Wilson moving around with renewed purpose and moving at a speed that didn't suggest the equipment manager had sharpened his skates with a banana before the game.

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10-12-2014, 04:58 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
Well, remember those pesky "score effects." The Wylde let way up on the gas after that 2nd goal and the Avs kept coming, so the shot differentials changed dramatically. I think Yeo is ultimately too conservative and that'll cost Minnesota down the road. But I've been wrong many times before.

I'll say this: I don't mind the Avs ignoring the analytics stuff if they focus on the aspects of their game that the fancy stats emphasize: Aggressive play in the neutral zone and at the blue line (I have to admit, apart from EJ getting a tad carried away, I was LOVING the added emphasis on standing guys up before they hit the zone), and using team speed to your advantage.

And it was nice to see Ryan Wilson moving around with renewed purpose and moving at a speed that didn't suggest the equipment manager had sharpened his skates with a banana before the game.
i agree. i have no issues if avs play like that.

avs did beat them in scoring chances, they were leading on them even before the score effects stepped into play.

we actually didn't get more than 1 scoring chance ES on the 3rd period by my count iirc.

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10-12-2014, 10:58 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
http://war-on-ice.com/ does have games, but something about the team stats is buggy for me. I get a "Error: second argument must be a list" whatever that might mean. The interface isn't nearly as slick as extraskater had.

Avs won ES corsi/fenwick today with 57-43% or something like that but I never understood why just ES is important in advanced stats. You just have to look at the difference in how Avs and Wild play PP/PK to figure that Avs being outshot on special teams was fully deserved.
At least they are regressing with style.

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Old
10-14-2014, 06:32 AM
  #108
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Looks like we lost Corsi battle yesterday. We should sit and cry. Winning doesn't matter, Corsi does! Roy should sit McGinn, he was our worst player! I think they should take away his goal. He doesn't deserve it with Corsi like that

http://www.hockeystats.ca/game/2014020035


Last edited by raistlin76: 10-14-2014 at 09:41 AM.
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Old
10-14-2014, 07:05 AM
  #109
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Just shows how meaningless corsi is when basing it on one player. McGinn was one of the best players(esp. after first period) and Duchene and they were the worst from Colorado? Yeah Corsi is ********.

Tanguay, Mackinnon, Briere etc. Had horrible game, but still ended up with one of the best corsi. haha. (Yes, I know they scored the winning goal, but outside of that two shifts, they sucked balls, esp. Tanguay.)

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10-14-2014, 04:00 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Colorado Avalanche View Post
Just shows how meaningless corsi is when basing it on one player. McGinn was one of the best players(esp. after first period) and Duchene and they were the worst from Colorado? Yeah Corsi is ********.

Tanguay, Mackinnon, Briere etc. Had horrible game, but still ended up with one of the best corsi. haha. (Yes, I know they scored the winning goal, but outside of that two shifts, they sucked balls, esp. Tanguay.)
No it's not. Don't fall into the trap of looking at the smallest possible sample size and declaring Corsi is crap like Steve Simmons and so many other sportswriters. Like any other stat, it needs to be put into context and analyzed alongside other stats.

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10-14-2014, 10:41 PM
  #111
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There aren't any sites that track scoring chances are there? Just individual teams and tv networks?

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10-14-2014, 10:53 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
There aren't any sites that track scoring chances are there? Just individual teams and tv networks?
That will come if and when the league implements SportsVu.

Whether that info will be shared with the public is another story.

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10-15-2014, 12:24 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
No it's not. Don't fall into the trap of looking at the smallest possible sample size and declaring Corsi is crap like Steve Simmons and so many other sportswriters. Like any other stat, it needs to be put into context and analyzed alongside other stats.
Other stats at least have accurate data to put into context and analyzed alongside other stats. Someone scores 20 goals, they have 20 goals. 50 assists are 50 assists. A .915 save% is a .915 save%. Being ranked 20th in Corsi, that does not mean you were actually 20th in time of possession.

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10-15-2014, 04:12 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
There aren't any sites that track scoring chances are there? Just individual teams and tv networks?
me for avs this year .

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Old
10-15-2014, 07:46 AM
  #115
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could hench put ES scoring chance #s for the year on OP?

they are atm 27-42. with the first game skewing those numbers quite a bit.

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10-15-2014, 09:52 AM
  #116
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Good job IC.

Hench, you guys have any times yet? We obviously got a **** handed to us in game one, but I'm really curious about the rest.

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10-15-2014, 10:30 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by InjuredChoker View Post
me for avs this year .
That's pretty cool.

What criteria are you using to define a "scoring chance". I always wondered how those are determined..

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10-15-2014, 10:43 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by BrooksBets View Post
That's pretty cool.

What criteria are you using to define a "scoring chance". I always wondered how those are determined..
it varies from person to person.

i've found time ago that ratios will be similar no matter what method you use. from every shot that could go in, is from dangerous location to every shot that should've gone in.

now every shot that wouldn't have been bad goal to give up for a goalie, i track as scoring chance.

that is obviously subjective but as it's me tracking it all the time, using the same criteria, it shouldn't screw the numbers. i also usually watch the play on replay, sometimes multiple times and on slow-motion. if team has borderline chance, i don't track it, but i do track the next one.

they've shown some scoring chances on some broadcasts and my #s match up fairly well if one removes pp scoring chances since i track only ES numbers.

our pp vs. pk numbers have been dreadful so far. i'm so sure we were much better last year. wild had more chances on one power play than we've had like all of this very young season.

here are the individual numbers for the games so far.

1st wild game, 3-20
2nd game, 9-5
BOS, even at 8
leafs. 7-9 (maybe 10).

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10-15-2014, 10:52 AM
  #119
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Scott Cullen ‏@tsnscottcullen 2h2 hours ago
A report indicates Colorado was fifth in timed O-zone possession last season, which doesn't fit with ranking 27th in shot differential...

Interesting.

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Old
10-15-2014, 10:57 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by StayAtHomeAv View Post
Good job IC.

Hench, you guys have any times yet? We obviously got a **** handed to us in game one, but I'm really curious about the rest.
I got times for the first 2 games, and then have missed the last two. I was too busy during work for the Boston game, and cooking dinner killed last night's game. I might come back and time them if I get a chance.

I'll update the OP again when I get a chance.

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Originally Posted by The Shermanator View Post
Interesting.
Goes along the point of corsi =/= actual puck possession. There might be a correlation, but it doesn't seem really strong. Truth is, we need more numbers. I wish the NHL published all the stats they keep track of....

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Old
10-15-2014, 11:35 AM
  #121
tigervixxxen
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Really good work IC, if you can update the individual numbers from time to time that would be cool.

Maybe a stupid question but does a goal count as a scoring chance?

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10-15-2014, 11:39 AM
  #122
InjuredChoker
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Really good work IC, if you can update the individual numbers from time to time that would be cool.
i can update them after every game, either here or in GDTs, as i've done so far.

Quote:
Maybe a stupid question but does a goal count as a scoring chance?
if it's a 'good goal', for the goalie to give up.

weak wrister from behind the blueline doesn't count as scoring chance if it goes in.

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Old
10-15-2014, 03:00 PM
  #123
tigervixxxen
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I'm not asking this to make more work for you, IC but any idea who has generated a lot of our scoring chances?

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10-15-2014, 03:37 PM
  #124
InjuredChoker
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
I'm not asking this to make more work for you, IC but any idea who has generated a lot of our scoring chances?
so far, duchene. barrie has also been involved a lot.

both who have arguably been our best players so far.

i haven't tracked individual scoring chances but duchene has definitely stood out.

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10-15-2014, 04:10 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by InjuredChoker View Post
so far, duchene. barrie has also been involved a lot.

both who have arguably been our best players so far.

i haven't tracked individual scoring chances but duchene has definitely stood out.
Watching the games would also tell me this. Im curious what Mackinnon's looks like. I think hes had 2-3 legit chances to score through 4 games.

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