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Old
04-10-2015, 11:06 AM
  #101
RandyHolt
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I feel lazy like we can ball park that we scored 8-10 goals with him in the box 4 on 4, or having drawn a PP proper.

I will take the internet by the horns and add those right into his goal totals.

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04-10-2015, 11:09 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
I feel lazy like we can ball park that we scored 8-10 goals with him in the box 4 on 4, or having drawn a PP proper.

I will take the internet by the horns and add those right into his goal totals.
I know we scored 2 4v4 goals against Minnesota alone due to Wilson doing his thing.

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04-10-2015, 11:53 AM
  #103
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I know we scored 2 4v4 goals against Minnesota alone due to Wilson doing his thing.
It's the old Edmonton rule. Higher skill teams benefit more 4 on 4. We should be one of those teams.

With all the hype over modern day stats taking many sports by storm, I hope these sort of things are tracked better.

The wildcard, the league deciding he is too good and calling penalties on him for being a punching bag.

Which should also be tracked.

BSPIMs/60

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04-10-2015, 12:14 PM
  #104
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Yeah I really don't understand the witchhunt for Wilson.

I've seen certain opposing players pull those kinds of things for years. Callahan, Upshall, Dubinsky, Avery etc. They agitate and draw penalties for their team. Its been like a "thing" forever. Dino was GREAT at that.

I don't recall the NHL ever really focusing in on a player like this honestly. Even a jackhole like Avery

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04-10-2015, 12:21 PM
  #105
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Per behindthenet.ca, Wilson's 2 penalties drawn per 60 is almost double the next Cap (Ovechkin 1.2). There are more penalties for and against when he's on the ice (jumps by about 60%), but the advantage to the Caps increases compared to when he's not on the ice (jumps an additional 33%). He draws more penalties than he takes per 60 min (1.3 taken vs 2.0 drawn).

Only seven Caps draw more penalties than they take per 60 (Wilson, Ovechkin, Ward, Fehr, Gleason, Mojo, Bura), and Wilson's .7 positive differential is the best.

If we're going to look at numbers and make assumptions...

If Wilson has a .7 differential per 60 and around 10 min TOI/game, then over a 9 game span he will draw an extra penalty beyond what he takes. Based purely on PP%, and the Caps being at 25% PP, that means IN THEORY Wilson would be responsible for 1 goal every 36 games, or about 2 this season based on games played.

Now, that's just numbers and averages. It isn't reality. The reality could actually be totally outside the percentages, and my impression from watching the games is that Wilson drew a lot of penalties that resulted in PP or 4 on 4 goals, and it was way more than two.


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Old
04-10-2015, 12:24 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
Yeah I really don't understand the witchhunt for Wilson.

I've seen certain opposing players pull those kinds of things for years. Callahan, Upshall, Dubinsky, Avery etc. They agitate and draw penalties for their team. Its been like a "thing" forever. Dino was GREAT at that.

I don't recall the NHL ever really focusing in on a player like this honestly. Even a jackhole like Avery
Wilson draws more penalties than almost anyone in the league. Only Klinkhammer has more (2.1/60) among skaters with 50+ games played. He's gotten the attention of coaches and GMs, and they're talking to the league and the refs, imo. You can be sure of that.

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04-10-2015, 12:25 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by g00n View Post
Per behindthenet.ca, Wilson's 2 penalties drawn per 60 is almost double the next guy (Ovechkin 1.2). There are more penalties for and against when he's on the ice (jumps by about 60%), but the advantage to the Caps increases compared to when he's not on the ice (jumps an additional 33%). He draws more penalties than he takes per 60 min (1.3 taken vs 2.0 drawn).

Only seven Caps draw more penalties than they take per 60 (Wilson, Ovechkin, Ward, Fehr, Gleason, Mojo, Bura), and Wilson's .7 positive differential is the best.

If we're going to look at numbers and make assumptions...

If Wilson has a .7 differential per 60 and around 10 min TOI/game, then over a 9 game span he will draw an extra penalty beyond what he takes. Based purely on PP%, and the Caps being at 25% PP, that means IN THEORY Wilson would be responsible for 1 goal every 36 games, or about 2 this season based on games played.

Now, that's just numbers and averages. It isn't reality. The reality could actually be totally outside the percentages, and my impression from watching the games is that Wilson drew a lot of penalties that resulted in PP or 4 on 4 goals, and it was way more than two.
Yay you did the math I didn't feel like doing. I would concur that the number you got should be the baseline as momentum etc. plays a role. Also of note is that we are 2nd in the league in 4-4 offense. You can't really quantify how many goals he generates by taking us to 4-4 but you can certainly say that 4-4 is a strength of this team and Wilson does his part to take us to that well.

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04-10-2015, 12:28 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by g00n View Post
Wilson draws more penalties than almost anyone in the league. Only Klinkhammer has more (2.1/60) among skaters with 50+ games played. He's gotten the attention of coaches and GMs, and they're talking to the league and the refs, imo. You can be sure of that.
I'm sure he's not the first in history that other coaches and GMs complained about. But it sure does seem they are out to get him. I don't think I ever saw that with Avery or guys like him, who like Wilson, try to stir things up and get their team at an advantage.

Maybe I'm just a paranoid Caps fan. I truly don't recall this kind of thing happening to one of those types of guys in the past.

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04-10-2015, 12:33 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Yay you did the math I didn't feel like doing. I would concur that the number you got should be the baseline as momentum etc. plays a role. Also of note is that we are 2nd in the league in 4-4 offense. You can't really quantify how many goals he generates by taking us to 4-4 but you can certainly say that 4-4 is a strength of this team and Wilson does his part to take us to that well.
If someone in the Caps org or press really, really wanted to go back and find out they could review the game film and see exactly how many of Wilson's drawn or offsetting penalties resulted in goals. None of us are going to have the time or resources. So let's just say...8. lol

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04-10-2015, 12:40 PM
  #110
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The only thing clear to me is the kid is a gamer and will probably continue to improve. So, while guys like Millhaus are ready to jump to judgement about career highs and hand out proclimations, I'll wait to pass judgement. I've ALWAYS felt like he's going to be a late bloomer/long-term development path kind of player. Some want to blame it on the Caps handling of the player, but I think he is what he is and will simply take years of seasoning to ever be a real offensive threat, if he ever is. I've always felt his ceiling was 20g, MAYBE 30 in the perfect situation. Still too many people seeing 1st rounder and expecting too much from a player who doesn't play that type of game.

Keep doing what you're doing Tom. And get a new number so I can get a jersey!

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04-10-2015, 03:28 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
The only thing clear to me is the kid is a gamer and will probably continue to improve. So, while guys like Millhaus are ready to jump to judgement about career highs and hand out proclimations, I'll wait to pass judgement. I've ALWAYS felt like he's going to be a late bloomer/long-term development path kind of player. Some want to blame it on the Caps handling of the player, but I think he is what he is and will simply take years of seasoning to ever be a real offensive threat, if he ever is. I've always felt his ceiling was 20g, MAYBE 30 in the perfect situation. Still too many people seeing 1st rounder and expecting too much from a player who doesn't play that type of game.
As has been said by others than me if it going to take years for Wilson to develop any semblance of skill with the puck then if/when it does happen it won't be here. 3 years after being drafted 16th overall the guy still treats the puck like a hand grenade. But if the masses around here are fine with that then who am I to complain...?

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04-10-2015, 03:32 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
As has been said by others than me if it going to take years for Wilson to develop any semblance of skill with the puck then if/when it does happen it won't be here. 3 years after being drafted 16th overall the guy still treats the puck like a hand grenade. But if the masses around here are fine with that then who am I to complain...?
"3 years after being drafted 16th overall" still equals "just turned 21".

And I disagree with your description of his puck skills. Like Mojo he seems to have had bookended this season with decent play early and late, and a suspect middle portion. I've noted some pretty crafty plays from Wilson here and there, but in the middle of the season he seemed like he could barely hold his stick. I still think he had some kind of injury as this was also the period when he stopped fighting for a while. I'm guessing hand or wrist, probably from PUNCHING FACES.

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04-10-2015, 03:38 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by g00n View Post
he seems to have had bookended this season with decent play early and late, and a suspect middle portion.
Agreed that when used in a limited 4th line role he looks a lot more comfortable.

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04-10-2015, 03:46 PM
  #114
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Agreed that when used in a limited 4th line role he looks a lot more comfortable.


he seems pretty comfortable to me on the top line when they are punishing the opponents with hits and creating havoc. When they try to play more of a skilled game is when I start to see a lot of mistakes.

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04-10-2015, 04:02 PM
  #115
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he seems pretty comfortable to me on the top line when they are punishing the opponents with hits and creating havoc. When they try to play more of a skilled game is when I start to see a lot of mistakes.
I don't know what to tell you other than I disagree. And the idea that Ovechkin and Backstrom should be playing like a 4th line and not playing a skilled game is patently ridiculous IMO but whatever...

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04-10-2015, 04:17 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by g00n View Post
If someone in the Caps org or press really, really wanted to go back and find out they could review the game film and see exactly how many of Wilson's drawn or offsetting penalties resulted in goals. None of us are going to have the time or resources. So let's just say...8. lol
I am pretty damn sure it is more than 5. 8-10 is not unthinkable.

One could simply review the nhl.com full play by play plain text summary and search for drawn by willie and see if there is a PPG right afterwords. 4 on 4 you would just have to search for minors he took.

Ok 8 it is.

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04-10-2015, 04:17 PM
  #117
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Trotz loves Wilson with 8 and 19. Ov attracts too much attention. Wilson eliminates some of that extra coverage by taking them out of the play. He thinks the game at a top line level. He's not a plug.

Trotz wants to play a heavy game. Think Gibbs Redskins with the Hogs and Riggins. Ovechkin always finds the elite checker or defenseman and gets hits on him. He has destroyed Girardi's ability to play in 3 or 4 games of a series. Add Wilson to that and its big trouble.

Wilson is also a good puck retriever. That's mainly what Ov needs.

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04-10-2015, 04:39 PM
  #118
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Trotz loves Wilson with 8 and 19. Ov attracts too much attention. Wilson eliminates some of that extra coverage by taking them out of the play. He thinks the game at a top line level. He's not a plug.

Trotz wants to play a heavy game. Think Gibbs Redskins with the Hogs and Riggins. Ovechkin always finds the elite checker or defenseman and gets hits on him. He has destroyed Girardi's ability to play in 3 or 4 games of a series. Add Wilson to that and its big trouble.

Wilson is also a good puck retriever. That's mainly what Ov needs.
All of this.

Earlier in the year I wanted to see Wilson and Kuz platoon in that top RW spot depending on the opponent/situation. I think Trotz still has that option but in a slightly different way now that Kuz has adjusted as a center...

8-92-42: space created by Kuz's mobility, Ward fine as a digger and net presence

8-19-43: space created by Wilson's physicality and he can either maraud on the boards or go to the net while Ovie and Nick cycle



I don't EVER want to see 8-19-90 again, as Nick and Mojo just become too passive and deferential to Ovechkin, who is more than willing to try and do it all himself anyway.

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04-10-2015, 04:42 PM
  #119
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Trotz loves Wilson with 8 and 19.
That must be why he plays with them so often...

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04-10-2015, 04:56 PM
  #120
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That must be why he plays with them so often...
They're Wilsons top linemates by TOI

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04-10-2015, 04:57 PM
  #121
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That must be why he plays with them so often...
Well he does, depending on the match up. If we are playing a team that we want to hit and force turnovers then we use that combo. When we played the Rangers and we wanted to slow them down in the neutral zone we did not.

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04-10-2015, 05:05 PM
  #122
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The organization probably cares **** all about where he was drafted. It's not going to shape their decision-making process on him whatsoever. The idea that he must produce X by Y or else is non-sense.

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04-10-2015, 05:14 PM
  #123
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They're Wilsons top linemates by TOI
He hasn't played with them even sort of regularly in quite a while. Trotz may think he likes them together in theory but in practice he doesn't usually keep them together very long because while it may seem entertaining to watch them together it usually isn't productive.

The idea that Trotz 'loves' Wilson with Backstrom and Ovechkin is a joke. If that was the case he would play with them more or less all the time while maybe giving him a game lower down for the occasional bad matchup. Maybe that's it though? He's realized they are all bad matchups...

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04-11-2015, 07:30 AM
  #124
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I feel lazy like we can ball park that we scored 8-10 goals with him in the box 4 on 4, or having drawn a PP proper.

I will take the internet by the horns and add those right into his goal totals.
I wouldn't suggest doing this against Tavares and company.

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04-11-2015, 09:44 AM
  #125
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I wouldn't suggest doing this against Tavares and company.
We may not have a choice. It seems any penalty he draws of late, he gets flagged for being there.

Its high time BMac and Trotz push back at the league. I think opposition coaches pointed out to the league that he is taking advantage of their dumb players. Now the league is flagging him on reputation.


Last edited by RandyHolt; 04-11-2015 at 09:54 AM..
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