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Finding new ways to evaluate a goaltender's performance ?

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Old
10-05-2005, 10:24 PM
  #1
Des Louise
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Finding new ways to evaluate a goaltender's performance ?

I always thought GAA, Save %, Wins and shootouts weren't good ways to evaluate a goaltender performance in a game or season on their own. It makes no account of the quality of the shots a goalie face and from where on the ice shots are made. Nor how many times a goalie gives up the lead, gets scored 5-hole, etc.

I've been thinking about finding new statiscal ways to evaluate goalies. So the following is my 2nd effort (I've upgraded it from the one I posted earlier). I'd like you guys to help me out polish it before I go out and ask other team's fans to do the same for their goalies and back ups. So if you have ideas about what should be added, removed, etc. I just want to have the most information out there without it becoming irrelevant and too much to work out through to get something meaningful.

All suggestions are more than welcome.
Attached Files
File Type: doc Goals allowed by Theo.doc‎ (236.0 KB, 73 views)

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10-05-2005, 11:03 PM
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type_v
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How about a stat on how a goalie played compared to the other teams goalie.
Tonight would be a loss in my opinion for Theo because he let in the only semi-tough shot he faced, whereas Raycroft got scored twice when he had no chance but also saved a couple that appeared to be sure goals. Ribeiro's move come to mind.

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10-05-2005, 11:31 PM
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Des Louise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by type_v
How about a stat on how a goalie played compared to the other teams goalie.
Tonight would be a loss in my opinion for Theo because he let in the only semi-tough shot he faced, whereas Raycroft got scored twice when he had no chance but also saved a couple that appeared to be sure goals. Ribeiro's move come to mind.
Well, I agree it's important to see how a goalie does compared to his opponent but I don't see how I could include this into my stats in a non-subjective way. If you have a suggestion on how to do that, I'm all for it.

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10-05-2005, 11:35 PM
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Malakhov
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That's pathetic, sorry. Theo was brilliant tonight and all you have is one bad incident from the whole game.

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10-05-2005, 11:39 PM
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How about wins and stanley cup rings? hmmm...? just an idea.

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10-05-2005, 11:42 PM
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SuperUnknown
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Can't remember where I was getting this (I thought it was at www.nhl.com), but there used to be a graphical description of the game where they would put marks for each shot. It was great to analyse a goaltender's performance, for the position of the shots by the other team can give a good visual description of the defense's play. For example, if a team has a lot of shot but all from the perimeter, it shows the defense was getting the bounces and was keeping the other team from the "paying" zone. That's a good game by the defense, and the goaltender should show a higher save percentage. On the other hand, you'll see games where there are plenty of shots from close with good angles. That's usually a sign of a sloppy defense. A good save percentage in that situation is indicative of a better goaltender.

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10-05-2005, 11:55 PM
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Des Louise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malakhov
That's pathetic, sorry. Theo was brilliant tonight and all you have is one bad incident from the whole game.
Huh ?

Someone BADLY missed the point of this thread.

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10-05-2005, 11:56 PM
  #8
Des Louise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smail
Can't remember where I was getting this (I thought it was at www.nhl.com), but there used to be a graphical description of the game where they would put marks for each shot. It was great to analyse a goaltender's performance, for the position of the shots by the other team can give a good visual description of the defense's play. For example, if a team has a lot of shot but all from the perimeter, it shows the defense was getting the bounces and was keeping the other team from the "paying" zone. That's a good game by the defense, and the goaltender should show a higher save percentage. On the other hand, you'll see games where there are plenty of shots from close with good angles. That's usually a sign of a sloppy defense. A good save percentage in that situation is indicative of a better goaltender.
That would be pretty awesome if you remember where we can get that. I'd definately keep each one. It could be useful.

I'll try to look out for it.

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10-05-2005, 11:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aymand
How about wins and stanley cup rings? hmmm...? just an idea.
If you only go by that Luongo sucks and Osgood is a top 5 goalie in this league.

There's not one single statistic out there that tells the whole story.

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10-06-2005, 12:01 AM
  #10
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great idea IMO... It's always better to see what a goalie does.

Theodore had a good game tonight. But like type_v said, I think that saving % means squat. Raycroft couldn't do anything on the two goals we scored... He had a 0.905 sav%. Theodore allowed one bad goal and managed to finish the game with a 0.967 sav%. He played well though. But it just show how sav% means nothing.

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10-06-2005, 02:13 AM
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It's interesting and all, but it's more a list of tendencies than it is a method for comparing goalies. I mean, if Theo lets in 100 goals to the "Bottom half of the stick side" and Brodeur lets in 100 goals from the "Bottom half of the net glove side", who's the better goalie? If you wanted to make it tool for statistical analysis, you're going to have log shots as well as goals.

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10-06-2005, 02:29 AM
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Unless you find dedicated and highly knowledgeable fans of other teams to help with this project, it'll be flawed. Great concept though; essentially a scouting team you'd be putting together. Tougher and more time consuming job than it looks though.

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10-06-2005, 05:01 AM
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Statistics are for "ptit gros"

There is no statistic valuable enough to describe the performance of a goaler. There is so many things that come in the way, like their defense, their system, their luck, their mamans and so many other things.

I think they should add the:

-Choke meter: measuring the goalie tendance to choke when it's important.
-Bad goal statistic: Théo has a chance of winning another trophy there.
-The Hasek stat: Ugly saves, or no style saves. (measure the luck sometimes)

Add more!

Thornton pue!

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10-06-2005, 05:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moumni_Bachir
Statistics are for "ptit gros"

There is no statistic valuable enough to describe the performance of a goaler. There is so many things that come in the way, like their defense, their system, their luck, their mamans and so many other things.

I think they should add the:

-Choke meter: measuring the goalie tendance to choke when it's important.
-Bad goal statistic: Théo has a chance of winning another trophy there.
-The Hasek stat: Ugly saves, or no style saves. (measure the luck sometimes)

Add more!

Thornton pue!
. It took a while, but your humor is growing on me.

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Old
10-06-2005, 06:12 AM
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Le Tricolore
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Quote:
Originally Posted by type_v
How about a stat on how a goalie played compared to the other teams goalie.
Tonight would be a loss in my opinion for Theo because he let in the only semi-tough shot he faced, whereas Raycroft got scored twice when he had no chance but also saved a couple that appeared to be sure goals. Ribeiro's move come to mind.
Theo got the win. Therefore he did better. YEP!

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10-06-2005, 07:26 AM
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By conventional stats, Theo should have a great year as I think the CH will collapse low defensivley, allowing a lot of shots from the outside. I thought he looked solid last night. Sometimes he has that look about him where he seems to let the game come to him,he's relaxed and square to the shooter,and I saw that last night. The opposite was his first couple of games against the B's in the last playoffs. I don't know how you measure that, but I think confidence translates to wins. I don't get excited about a goal like Beregeron's because those will happen. Sure he could've been better positioned,but on most plays,a perfect shot can find a hole somewhere. What I like is when a goalie forgets about it right away and shuts the door,like a relief pitcher in baseball. Grant Fuhr and Roy were the best at this imo.

E, it's an interesting process, and I'm interested to see how people think they should be compared,but personally,I rate guys by my own perception and that doesn't help a whole lot.

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10-06-2005, 08:22 AM
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Theo would like to have Patricia's shot back, but he did make a few nice saves and overall played well... the one thing that stood out for me, is that his puck handling skills seem to have gotten worse, it's a real adventure every time he touches the puck...Maybe he should go to Brodeur's summer hockey school for goalies...

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Old
10-06-2005, 11:01 AM
  #18
Des Louise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcphee
E, it's an interesting process, and I'm interested to see how people think they should be compared,but personally,I rate guys by my own perception and that doesn't help a whole lot.
We would still have all our subjective opinions, perceptions and impressions but we could also quantify some aspects of a goalie's game and back those impressions with hard data, or be forced to change our opinions when confronted with evidence to the contrary. Sometimes it's really easy to say a goalie is clutch with only a few exemples that stuck out in our minds, or say that a goalie has a good glove hand because a few highlight glove saves skewed our perceptions.

But sadly, no one seems interested, so I might be doing this alone, which would considerably decrease the value of it.

I'd be willing to do 5 teams if I knew 5 other people would be doing it for 5 teams too.

There's no way I can do this for more than 5 teams though, way too time consuming.

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10-06-2005, 11:58 AM
  #19
mcphee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by E = CH²
We would still have all our subjective opinions, perceptions and impressions but we could also quantify some aspects of a goalie's game and back those impressions with hard data, or be forced to change our opinions when confronted with evidence to the contrary. Sometimes it's really easy to say a goalie is clutch with only a few exemples that stuck out in our minds, or say that a goalie has a good glove hand because a few highlight glove saves skewed our perceptions.

But sadly, no one seems interested, so I might be doing this alone, which would considerably decrease the value of it.

I'd be willing to do 5 teams if I knew 5 other people would be doing it for 5 teams too.

There's no way I can do this for more than 5 teams though, way too time consuming.
E, on the History board, there have been quite a few posters who have detailled mathematical theories on how to rate players historically. Ogopogo is one. If you looked for some old threads over there,you'd find a few posters who are interested in detailled rankings and may want to be involved. There have been some heated player evaluation arguements and some posters who believe strongly in their systems. I think that might be where to find someone.

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10-06-2005, 12:02 PM
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Des Louise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcphee
E, on the History board, there have been quite a few posters who have detailled mathematical theories on how to rate players historically. Ogopogo is one. If you looked for some old threads over there,you'd find a few posters who are interested in detailled rankings and may want to be involved. There have been some heated player evaluation arguements and some posters who believe strongly in their systems. I think that might be where to find someone.
Thank you. I'll send a message to ogopogo and see if he's interested. Then hopefully 2 becomes 4, and 4 becomes 8...

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