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Damien Cox says Wins are Everything for Goaltenders

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10-31-2005, 07:27 PM
  #1
Chalupa Batman
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Damien Cox says Wins are Everything for Goaltenders

I searched on this, but didn't find anything which I thought was surprising since I want to vent.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?id=2206624

Basically, Cox is saying that because it's too difficult to figure out what's a "good" save percentage and what's a "good" goals-against average, we should just give up and go on wins alone.

Is this guy serious?

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10-31-2005, 07:39 PM
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LannysStach
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this isn't exactly a well-thought out opinion, nor does he (can he) defend it very well.

this is just a guy who's gotta come up with ten inches of copy a day -- and who's a professional apologist for the Loafs.

Belfour took a huge hit against the Sens letting in 5 in 24 minutes, equalling about 13 goals for the game on average. i laughed about how it was going to blow out his GAA -- so what do the blue & white media do? come up with the concept the GAA doesn't matter.

uh-huh.

then he says "we didn't used to count save percentage, so i don't understand it and it should be on the stats sheet."

this guy should join HNIC.
if you play 8 or 80 games in the NHL, you get a pretty good sense of a goalie from his GAA, and even more-so from his save percentage.

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10-31-2005, 07:49 PM
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Just like in baseball for pitchers, Wins just depend too much on performance of the teammates, obviously. So it's not a good measure of individual talent and skill.

Just another desperate Leaf sucking columnist?

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10-31-2005, 07:50 PM
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19nazzy
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What would you rather have.
A 20 Win .930 2.00 goalie?
Or a 40 win .900 3.00 goalie

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10-31-2005, 07:53 PM
  #5
VanIslander
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Stop quoting Cox.

Plleeaassee.

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10-31-2005, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No
I searched on this, but didn't find anything which I thought was surprising since I want to vent.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?id=2206624

Basically, Cox is saying that because it's too difficult to figure out what's a "good" save percentage and what's a "good" goals-against average, we should just give up and go on wins alone.

Is this guy serious?
Ogopogo says Damien Cox is an idiot.

If he would watch some goalies play, he could figure out who the best are.

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10-31-2005, 08:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 19nazzy
What would you rather have.
A 20 Win .930 2.00 goalie?
Or a 40 win .900 3.00 goalie
Dude, what you are asking is:

Would you rather have a goalie that plays for the St. Louis Blues or a goalie that plays for the Ottawa Senators?

Wins are a TEAM effort.

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10-31-2005, 08:16 PM
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[QUOTE=LannysStach]

this is just a guy who's gotta come up with ten inches of copy a day -- and who's a professional apologist for the Loafs.
QUOTE]

have you ever actually READ his columns? He bashes the Leafs all the time, as they richly deserve at times. You want to disagree, call him an idiot, fine. But calling him an apologist for the Leafs shows ignorance of fact. Im no Leaf fan, and I do like Cox's column on occasion, but one thing for sure, he is no homer. Get your facts straight guys.

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10-31-2005, 08:19 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo

Wins are a TEAM effort.
but GAA and SV% are not? So if Hasek was in net, and he had to play behind Berg, Belak, Orpik, Marchment, DHatcher, and a 6th stiff, we would expect his GAA and SV% to be the same as it is in Ottawa behind guys like Phillips, Redden, Volchenkov, Chara...think again.

ALL goalie stats are a team effort, because playing DEFENSE is a team effort.

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10-31-2005, 08:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhalerBoy
but GAA and SV% are not? So if Hasek was in net, and he had to play behind Berg, Belak, Orpik, Marchment, DHatcher, and a 6th stiff, we would expect his GAA and SV% to be the same as it is in Ottawa behind guys like Phillips, Redden, Volchenkov, Chara...think again.

ALL goalie stats are a team effort, because playing DEFENSE is a team effort.
I totally agree.

The only way to evaluate a goalie is to watch him play. No statistic will tell you anything definitive about a goalie.

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10-31-2005, 08:25 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhalerBoy
ALL goalie stats are a team effort, because playing DEFENSE is a team effort.
That's a cop-out, because wins are far more a team statistic than goals-against average, and goals-against average is far more a team statistic than save percentage.

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10-31-2005, 08:29 PM
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Personally I think it's a poor idea. No stat is perfect in analyzing a goaltender's performance, but taken together, GAA and SV% can paint a better picture than wins alone.

Wins can be somewhat useful, but to say "it may well be the only number that truly matters is the number of wins a goaltender records while in goal" is false. Is that to say that because Luongo only got 25 wins and 33 losses in 03/04 he isn't a good goaltender? Or that his 25 wins are the only stat that matters?

GAA and SV% aren't perfect, and as in all goalie stat, they can be helped quite a bit by team situation, but to say that wins should be the only important stat seems to really limit how we analyze goalies.

Really poor column overall. Seems like he didn't have many ideas so he just came up with this random garbage.

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10-31-2005, 08:29 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No
That's a cop-out, because wins are far more a team statistic than goals-against average, and goals-against average is far more a team statistic than save percentage.
Not true. A great defense allows very few quality shots. A porous defense allows many quality shots.

Grant Fuhr had to face more odd-man rushes, point blank shots and breakaways than almost any goalie in the NHL. Saying that his GAA and save % were crappy - indicating that he is a bad goalie - would tell me that a person does not understand hockey.

ALL goaltending stats are, in reality, team stats.

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10-31-2005, 08:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo
ALL goaltending stats are, in reality, team stats.
Yes, you've said that. And I've said that, for some stats, it's more true than for others.

Take a great goaltender and put him on a terrible team. He'll still have a pretty good save percentage (even if it's less than before). His goals-against average might be decent, but he's not going to win very many games.

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10-31-2005, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo
Grant Fuhr had to face more odd-man rushes, point blank shots and breakaways than almost any goalie in the NHL. Saying that his GAA and save % were crappy - indicating that he is a bad goalie - would tell me that a person does not understand hockey.
Normalized to his era and opposition, Fuhr's save percentage and GAA were actually quite good.

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10-31-2005, 08:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No
Yes, you've said that. And I've said that, for some stats, it's more true than for others.

Take a great goaltender and put him on a terrible team. He'll still have a pretty good save percentage (even if it's less than before). His goals-against average might be decent, but he's not going to win very many games.
Take a look at Chico Resch's career. When he played with the Islanders, his numbers were very good. As soon as he was dealt to the Colorado Rockies, his GAA was over 4.00 and I am not even sure how bad his save % was.

A goalie is an important part of a team's defense and there is no stat to measure his skills. Save % might be a marginally better way than wins but, nothing is really effective.

The only way to judge a goaltender is to watch him play.

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10-31-2005, 08:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No
Normalized to his era and opposition, Fuhr's save percentage and GAA were actually quite good.
Not really. When Fuhr finished 12th in the league in GAA, normalizing it won't move him up any spots. 12th is 12th is 12th.

Fuhr was the best goalie in the league despite his numbers because goalie stats are based on the team. Watching Fuhr would have told you the truth.

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10-31-2005, 08:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo
When Fuhr finished 12th in the league in GAA, normalizing it won't move him up any spots. 12th is 12th is 12th.
You have to normalize it to his opposition as well. Fuhr played Smythe Division opponents more often than his peers, and as I'm sure you well know, the total goals/game in Smythe Division competition was much higher than other divisions during Fuhr's Edmonton tenure.

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10-31-2005, 08:51 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo
The only way to judge a goaltender is to watch him play.
I've never said that watching a goaltender play wasn't the best way to judge him/her.

The problem with this is that, to effectively rank goaltenders, you have to watch all of them play a decent number of times. And you have to hope that your memory is fantastic. And if you want to compare across eras, you can't compare before your earliest solid memories.

Statistics don't tell the entire story. But the solution to that isn't to scrap statistics altogether. The solution to that is to recognize which statistics are more effective than others, and to develop better statistics. You're falling into the same trap as Damien Cox.

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10-31-2005, 08:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No
You have to normalize it to his opposition as well. Fuhr played Smythe Division opponents more often than his peers, and as I'm sure you well know, the total goals/game in Smythe Division competition was much higher than other divisions during Fuhr's Edmonton tenure.
Well, considering that 48 games were played out of division compared to 32 within the division, I don't see that making a significant difference.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...l19271985.html

Do the Smythe division numbers look that out of whack? I don't see it. The Oilers team defense is responsible for his poor numbers, IMO.

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10-31-2005, 08:57 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No
I've never said that watching a goaltender play wasn't the best way to judge him/her.

The problem with this is that, to effectively rank goaltenders, you have to watch all of them play a decent number of times. And you have to hope that your memory is fantastic. And if you want to compare across eras, you can't compare before your earliest solid memories.

Statistics don't tell the entire story. But the solution to that isn't to scrap statistics altogether. The solution to that is to recognize which statistics are more effective than others, and to develop better statistics. You're falling into the same trap as Damien Cox.
You can compare across eras. You simply need the input of historical eyewitnesses. Those eyewitnesses are the voters for the Vezina trophy and the 1st and 2nd team all stars. Careful analysis of the voting records give us valuable eyewitness evidence to who the greats really are.

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10-31-2005, 09:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo
You can compare across eras. You simply need the input of historical eyewitnesses. Those eyewitnesses are the voters for the Vezina trophy and the 1st and 2nd team all stars. Careful analysis of the voting records give us valuable eyewitness evidence to who the greats really are.
Jim Carey?

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10-31-2005, 09:18 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 19nazzy
What would you rather have.
A 20 Win .930 2.00 goalie?
Or a 40 win .900 3.00 goalie
Game, set, match.

(Likely that at least a couple folks here would prefer the former!)

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10-31-2005, 09:24 PM
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One way to make sv% a little bit of a better barometer of goaltender performance is to only judge a goalies even strength sv%.

A goalie that faces more power plays (not his fault) is going to allow alot more goals than one who only faces a few, so by only measuring evenstrength sv%, goaltenders can be judged a little better against eachother.


really though, sv% is one of the better ways to measure a goalie performance. Over 70 games, it'll work itself out ok. the difference between a .920 and .930 goalie wouldn't be much (could easily be a reflection of team defence) but the difference between a .885 goalie and .930 goalie should tell you that something is wrong for one of the goaltenders.

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10-31-2005, 09:26 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trottier
Game, set, match.

(Likely that at least a couple folks here would prefer the former!)

assuming i was an expansion team and both goalies were available in the expansion draft, i wouldn't have to think long about taking the .930 goalie.

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