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Friedman 30 Thoughts (Jets)

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Old
10-20-2015, 10:17 AM
  #51
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23. Another contract question: How does Ryan Keslerís six-year, $41.25-million extension affect David Backes and Andrew Ladd?

Kesler is 32 in August, Backes 32 in May, Ladd 30 in December. The other two actually outscore Kesler on a points-per-game basis, but I could see the Blues and Jets resisting this idea.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...h-for-answers/

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10-20-2015, 12:58 PM
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23. Another contract question: How does Ryan Keslerís six-year, $41.25-million extension affect David Backes and Andrew Ladd?

Kesler is 32 in August, Backes 32 in May, Ladd 30 in December. The other two actually outscore Kesler on a points-per-game basis, but I could see the Blues and Jets resisting this idea.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...h-for-answers/
Interesting question, but I think the answer lies in that it's likely an idiotic contract for Kesler that won't return its value in later years. The caveat being I haven't looked at the details of the contract. But that said, St. Louis and Winnipeg should make the same potential mistake that Anaheim did simply because...Anaheim did?

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10-22-2015, 03:29 PM
  #53
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Interesting question, but I think the answer lies in that it's likely an idiotic contract for Kesler that won't return its value in later years. The caveat being I haven't looked at the details of the contract. But that said, St. Louis and Winnipeg should make the same potential mistake that Anaheim did simply because...Anaheim did?
No, but if that's what they are holding out for, will another team make that same potential mistake if they go to the open market?

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10-22-2015, 08:42 PM
  #54
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No, but if that's what they are holding out for, will another team make that same potential mistake if they go to the open market?
Will another team take the risk? Almost assuredly someone will. Not everyone is up against the cap and a legit first line LW and first pairing defenseman are up for grabs. Someone will pay. Should it be us? I dunno.

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11-24-2015, 01:10 PM
  #55
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http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...e-goalie-game/

10. All of this brings us toÖ the Winnipeg Jets. Itís the most logical fit. Hamonic wants to be there, which is such a bonus for the Jets. But if it was so easy, it would be done already. The right side of the defence, on paper, is so strong with Byfuglien, Tyler Myers and Jacob Trouba. Byfuglien is unrestricted. Trouba is restricted, but thatís going to be a hard negotiation.

Iím one who believes the Islandersí ask is for the 21-year-old defender. Hamonicís salary ó locked in for four more years ó allows you to do some things. If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff thinks heís going to lose Byfuglien, does he want Myers/Trouba or Hamonic/Myers? Iím betting itís the former. But what if he loses Byfuglien and gets into a stalemate with Trouba? Tough call. The hometown thing ratchets the pressure, too. AndÖ

11. Thatís why I think the Jets recently went back to Byfuglien to talk. Agent Ben Hankinson sent a text message declining comment, and Iíve got a better chance of getting something from DB Cooper than Cheveldayoff. Term is going to be big here. I can see the Jets wanting three years. But no way the player agrees.

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11-24-2015, 01:24 PM
  #56
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http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...e-goalie-game/

10. All of this brings us toÖ the Winnipeg Jets. Itís the most logical fit. Hamonic wants to be there, which is such a bonus for the Jets. But if it was so easy, it would be done already. The right side of the defence, on paper, is so strong with Byfuglien, Tyler Myers and Jacob Trouba. Byfuglien is unrestricted. Trouba is restricted, but thatís going to be a hard negotiation.

Iím one who believes the Islandersí ask is for the 21-year-old defender. Hamonicís salary ó locked in for four more years ó allows you to do some things. If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff thinks heís going to lose Byfuglien, does he want Myers/Trouba or Hamonic/Myers? Iím betting itís the former. But what if he loses Byfuglien and gets into a stalemate with Trouba? Tough call. The hometown thing ratchets the pressure, too. AndÖ

11. Thatís why I think the Jets recently went back to Byfuglien to talk. Agent Ben Hankinson sent a text message declining comment, and Iíve got a better chance of getting something from DB Cooper than Cheveldayoff. Term is going to be big here. I can see the Jets wanting three years. But no way the player agrees.
The plot thickens.
Maybe Chevy is seeing things the same way we are right now - Buff stays, Ladd goes.

It kills me to say that. Before this year, Ladd has been so great for the Jets. But unless he radically improves his play, or radically reduces his asking price, you just can't sign him right now.

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11-24-2015, 01:28 PM
  #57
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The plot thickens.
Maybe Chevy is seeing things the same way we are right now - Buff stays, Ladd goes.

It kills me to say that. Before this year, Ladd has been so great for the Jets. But unless he radically improves his play, or radically reduces his asking price, you just can't sign him right now.
... unless you use his last dozen games as an indicator in negotiations. Ladd must see his own value dropping elsewhere, so maybe if the Jets bend on an extra year of term for less money...?

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11-24-2015, 01:38 PM
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... unless you use his last dozen games as an indicator in negotiations. Ladd must see his own value dropping elsewhere, so maybe if the Jets bend on an extra year of term for less money...?
Sure. But unless Ladd is playing through an injury that everyone involved (him, TNSE) expects to get better, we're talking a lot less money. He shouldn't even be on the top line this year. We just don't have any better options.

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11-24-2015, 02:16 PM
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Friedman's thoughts today is using black box info (I actually know some of how they do it thanks to an SFU professor I know was asked to test it) that is really bad.

Down with sports logiq.

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11-24-2015, 02:17 PM
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Why is Trouba/Hamonic/Byfuglien never a possibility

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11-24-2015, 02:22 PM
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Why is Trouba/Hamonic/Byfuglien never a possibility
I don't know. I even tweeted that back to him.

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11-24-2015, 03:01 PM
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Why is Trouba/Hamonic/Byfuglien never a possibility
I like this a lot, as long as someone can play the left side, and Maurice actually decides that he is better with one of those guys on the left side (especially on the PK) than Stuart playing substantial minutes.

One option that I would like to see with this is Trouba playing more PP and Hamonic playing more PK.

Give me....

Enstrom-Buff
Trouba-Hamonic
Stuart-Chiarot / Postma

Time distribution:

Enstrom-Buff: 22-25 (with Buff getting a lot of PP time)
Trouba-Hamonic: 23-23 (with both getting PK and Trouba with some PP)
Stuart-Chiarot/Postma: 13.5 - 13.5 (maybe a bit of PK for Stuart)

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11-24-2015, 03:04 PM
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While you're thinking about these things Garret, I wonder if you'd consider analyzing Trouba's usage and performance before and after Myers arrived. I have a hunch that Myers has eaten into some of Trouba's role, particularly in regards to contributing to offense.

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11-24-2015, 03:56 PM
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The plot thickens.
Maybe Chevy is seeing things the same way we are right now - Buff stays, Ladd goes.
I read that as Byfuglien stays, Trouba goes.

Not ideal IMO - unless there is more to the story off ice.

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11-24-2015, 04:24 PM
  #65
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Maybe Trouba is super mad BFF Bogosian got traded and it's causing alot of issues?

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11-24-2015, 04:28 PM
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... unless you use his last dozen games as an indicator in negotiations. Ladd must see his own value dropping elsewhere, so maybe if the Jets bend on an extra year of term for less money...?
That would be making it worse not better. If the fear is that Ladd may age out prematurely because of his hernia or because of his style of play then adding term is the last thing you would want, unless it was in exchange for a huge drop in AAV.

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11-24-2015, 04:32 PM
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Friedman's thoughts today is using black box info (I actually know some of how they do it thanks to an SFU professor I know was asked to test it) that is really bad.

Down with sports logiq.
That is pretty cryptic. I don't think you have to let any cats out of the bag to give us some idea of what you are talking about. Don't tell us what is in the black box, just where it is.

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11-24-2015, 05:11 PM
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Maybe Trouba is super mad BFF Bogosian got traded and it's causing alot of issues?
But his original BFF Copp is here now...

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11-24-2015, 05:22 PM
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Maybe Trouba is super mad BFF Bogosian got traded and it's causing alot of issues?
Some random jocks at the gym at the U of M were saying the Jets hired Trouba's brother (with some fancy professional title) to live here and essentially keep him company. Obviously very very very hearsay statement, so who knows, I wouldn't put much stock in it.

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11-24-2015, 05:24 PM
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That is pretty cryptic. I don't think you have to let any cats out of the bag to give us some idea of what you are talking about. Don't tell us what is in the black box, just where it is.
Garret is a man of mystery.

I think he's referring to the Sportlogiq sports tracking system.

http://sportlogiq.com/

I could be wrong, but the black box part refers to anything that spits out meaningful numbers, but the algorithms that generate those numbers are proprietary (or hidden inside the "black box", if you will).

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11-24-2015, 05:28 PM
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Garret is a man of mystery.

I think he's referring to the Sportlogiq sports tracking system.

http://sportlogiq.com/

I could be wrong, but the black box part refers to anything that spits out meaningful numbers, but the algorithms that generate those numbers are proprietary (or hidden inside the "black box", if you will).
So is Sportsnet a paying customer? Or did they just feed Friedman some stuff?

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11-24-2015, 05:57 PM
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Why is Trouba/Hamonic/Byfuglien never a possibility
Who, the, ****, knows.... I'd prefer that honestly.

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11-24-2015, 06:16 PM
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So is Sportsnet a paying customer? Or did they just feed Friedman some stuff?
Sportsnet.

Sportslogiq uses a computer algorithm off of video to guestimate what is happening.
Like it uses body positioning and such.
However, I know a SFU prof who looked at the data and found a LOT of false positives.

It's cheaper and faster than human's tracking but has huge bias. Unlike normal shaped human error, bias doesn't diminish usually with sample size.
Pros and cons.

That's all I'm privy to say.

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11-24-2015, 08:48 PM
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I read that as Byfuglien stays, Trouba goes.

Not ideal IMO - unless there is more to the story off ice.
There could be more to it as you say. I know he had a bump in the road there living with Bogo but havn't heard anything bad since but you never know what happens with these guys off the ice. Having said that, no chance he gets traded.

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11-24-2015, 09:00 PM
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Sportsnet.

Sportslogiq uses a computer algorithm off of video to guestimate what is happening.
Like it uses body positioning and such.
However, I know a SFU prof who looked at the data and found a LOT of false positives.

It's cheaper and faster than human's tracking but has huge bias. Unlike normal shaped human error, bias doesn't diminish usually with sample size.
Pros and cons.

That's all I'm privy to say.
That's already more than I was looking for but I was wondering whch of Friedman's data you were casting aspersions on.

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