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Old
12-10-2015, 03:27 PM
  #101
surixon
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Ladd 6.5
Little 4.7
Wheeler 5.6
Stafford 4.35
Perreault 3.0
Burmi 1.55
Thorbs 1.2
Copp 0.925
Ehlers 0.894
Peluso 0.675
Extra 1.0


Buff 7.5
Enstrom 5.75
Myers 5.5
Stuart 2.625
Postma 0.887
Extra 1.0

Pavs 3.9
Helle 0.668

If the Jets re-sign Buff to a total of $14M cap hit, then with the rest of their roster and adding a couple of cheap fillers, they'll be at $59M or so. If the cap is around $72M, that leaves $13M for Trouba, Scheifele, Lowry and Hutch. Even if you drop Hutch, that's an average of $4.33M for Trouba, Scheif and Lowry, and the Jets would be capped out.

Saad and Hamilton recently got $6M and $5.75M as RFAs. Even if the Jets aren't a target for an offer sheet (they could perhaps trade Stafford and/or Perreault to make room), there's a good chance that the Jets will want to lock up Trouba and Scheifele to long term deals now (a la Tarasenko, Saad, Hamilton, etc.). Re-signing both Ladd and Buff won't give them that option.
Given his play this year Lowry will at best get the Burmie bridge deal which would leave about 5.5 million for each of Scheifele and Trouba. Tough but doable.

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12-10-2015, 03:29 PM
  #102
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Ladd 6.5
Little 4.7
Wheeler 5.6
Stafford 4.35
Perreault 3.0
Burmi 1.55
Thorbs 1.2
Copp 0.925
Ehlers 0.894
Peluso 0.675
Extra 1.0


Buff 7.5
Enstrom 5.75
Myers 5.5
Stuart 2.625
Postma 0.887
Extra 1.0

Pavs 3.9
Helle 0.668

If the Jets re-sign Buff to a total of $14M cap hit, then with the rest of their roster and adding a couple of cheap fillers, they'll be at $59M or so. If the cap is around $72M, that leaves $13M for Trouba, Scheifele, Lowry and Hutch. Even if you drop Hutch, that's an average of $4.33M for Trouba, Scheif and Lowry, and the Jets would be capped out.

Saad and Hamilton recently got $6M and $5.75M as RFAs. Even if the Jets aren't a target for an offer sheet (they could perhaps trade Stafford and/or Perreault to make room), there's a good chance that the Jets will want to lock up Trouba and Scheifele to long term deals now (a la Tarasenko, Saad, Hamilton, etc.). Re-signing both Ladd and Buff won't give them that option.
Lowry's going to have to have one hell of the rest of the season to get much more than his QO.

Hutch is gone, I'd bet. If not, he'll be signed for around what he's making now. More likely, they'll sign someone on a two-way deal.

So that leaves about $11.5M for Scheifele and Trouba. Both could be signed long term in that ballpark, I think...

But realistically, the Jets aren't going to want to be within spitting distance of the cap ceiling.

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12-15-2015, 10:39 AM
  #103
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1. Letís go over each case, and what is known about them.

Iíd heard similar rumours about Trouba, that the initial request was definitely higher than Dougie Hamilton (six years, $5.75M AAV) and in the Drew Doughty range (eight years, $7M AAV). You always ask high to start. Anyone who doesnít is a terrible negotiator.

The hardest thing about comparing either to Trouba is both signed after their third season, statistically their best. Prior to that, Trouba was ahead of Hamilton both numerically and in terms of usage, but behind Doughty. So far in 2015-16, heís not trending up, but remember the ask was before play began, when he was coming off a high.


When Doughty signed that contract, he wasnít the Drew Doughty heís become. The Kings, who hadnít yet won a Stanley Cup, fought it to the point the defender almost missed the start of the 2011-12 season. Also, it is believed the Jets wanted to go long-term with Trouba, which raises the value of any potential deal, because UFA years are being bought.

If Winnipeg wanted to go six or seven years, my guess is they hoped to come in around $5.5M, but braced for $6M-$6.5M.

2. When Ryan Kesler signed his extension in Anaheim (six years, $6.875M AAV), it affected two other negotiations ó David Backesís and Laddís.

Of the three Winnipeg discussions, I think this is the one thatís seen the most progress. Word is both sides have bent on term, with a six-year length agreed upon. On salary, it sounds like the two are less than $1M apart per year, but more than $500,000. Itís not insignificant, but also not insurmountable. They are grinding each other, with the biggest issue likely to be that both Ladd and the Jets feel theyíve compromised enough.

Thereís a deal to be made here, unless the public revelation throws it off the rails.

3. Byfuglien: this is the toughest one, because it doesnít sound like thereís been much negotiation. Very little talk, apparently.

Campbellís report aligns Byfuglien exactly with the recent extension of Brent Seabrook, who is 24 days younger than his former Blackhawks teammate. Seabrook took less money to stay. Would Byfuglien? And, do you believe, like I do, that Winnipeg fears term more than money in this scenario.

There were rumours the Jets didnít want to go past three years.

The preamble is also about this news and interesting read

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...onnel-choices/

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12-15-2015, 11:02 AM
  #104
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Lowry's going to have to have one hell of the rest of the season to get much more than his QO.

Hutch is gone, I'd bet. If not, he'll be signed for around what he's making now. More likely, they'll sign someone on a two-way deal.

So that leaves about $11.5M for Scheifele and Trouba. Both could be signed long term in that ballpark, I think...

But realistically, the Jets aren't going to want to be within spitting distance of the cap ceiling.
He's young but at this point in his career he is really bad, cant see him ever becoming more than a 4th line player and the type of player that is easily replaced.

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12-15-2015, 11:05 AM
  #105
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He's young but at this point in his career he is really bad, cant see him ever becoming more than a 4th line player and the type of player that is easily replaced.
When we are a contender Lowry is our 4th line centre playing 10-11 minutes per night, that's my thoughts. Nothing wrong with that. Lowry Lemieux and whoever as a 4th line would be tough to play against physically and can chip in offensively.

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12-15-2015, 11:18 AM
  #106
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Freidman has great write ups!

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12-15-2015, 12:08 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
1. Letís go over each case, and what is known about them.

Iíd heard similar rumours about Trouba, that the initial request was definitely higher than Dougie Hamilton (six years, $5.75M AAV) and in the Drew Doughty range (eight years, $7M AAV). You always ask high to start. Anyone who doesnít is a terrible negotiator.

The hardest thing about comparing either to Trouba is both signed after their third season, statistically their best. Prior to that, Trouba was ahead of Hamilton both numerically and in terms of usage, but behind Doughty. So far in 2015-16, heís not trending up, but remember the ask was before play began, when he was coming off a high.


When Doughty signed that contract, he wasnít the Drew Doughty heís become. The Kings, who hadnít yet won a Stanley Cup, fought it to the point the defender almost missed the start of the 2011-12 season. Also, it is believed the Jets wanted to go long-term with Trouba, which raises the value of any potential deal, because UFA years are being bought.

If Winnipeg wanted to go six or seven years, my guess is they hoped to come in around $5.5M, but braced for $6M-$6.5M.

2. When Ryan Kesler signed his extension in Anaheim (six years, $6.875M AAV), it affected two other negotiations ó David Backesís and Laddís.

Of the three Winnipeg discussions, I think this is the one thatís seen the most progress. Word is both sides have bent on term, with a six-year length agreed upon. On salary, it sounds like the two are less than $1M apart per year, but more than $500,000. Itís not insignificant, but also not insurmountable. They are grinding each other, with the biggest issue likely to be that both Ladd and the Jets feel theyíve compromised enough.

Thereís a deal to be made here, unless the public revelation throws it off the rails.

3. Byfuglien: this is the toughest one, because it doesnít sound like thereís been much negotiation. Very little talk, apparently.

Campbellís report aligns Byfuglien exactly with the recent extension of Brent Seabrook, who is 24 days younger than his former Blackhawks teammate. Seabrook took less money to stay. Would Byfuglien? And, do you believe, like I do, that Winnipeg fears term more than money in this scenario.

There were rumours the Jets didnít want to go past three years.

The preamble is also about this news and interesting read

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/3...onnel-choices/
I hate to think that the Jets might give Ladd a 6-year deal, and then not be able to get Trouba and Scheifele signed to good long-term deals.

I think Ladd or Buff has to be traded. If they trade Buff, it better be because they can get a huge return on him. Otherwise, they should trade Ladd. They shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Scheifele and Trouba are the future core players for this franchise.

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12-15-2015, 01:03 PM
  #108
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Freidman has great write ups!
Totally agree. He is one of my favorites in Hockey.

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12-15-2015, 01:16 PM
  #109
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I hate to think that the Jets might give Ladd a 6-year deal, and then not be able to get Trouba and Scheifele signed to good long-term deals.

I think Ladd or Buff has to be traded. If they trade Buff, it better be because they can get a huge return on him. Otherwise, they should trade Ladd. They shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Scheifele and Trouba are the future core players for this franchise.
i jsut posted this in the other thread but people are spooking themselve sbecause they still have trouble consolidating Cap hit in Millions and Cap hit in %

EX:
resign buff at 7x6
bridge trouba 4x2
resign trouba 7x8

your resigning trouba the same year enstrom and stuart come off the books.

that leaves you with tyour top 3 dman as Buff (32), Trouba (24) and Meyers(28) at a total of 25.6% of your caphit (assuming the cap goes up by the same amount it did this last offseason each offseason).

That's almost the exact same position we were in the year we handed bogo his contract extension (24.8% of total cap in our top 3 dmen)

That's really not bad.

Ladd at 6x6 is manageable as well.

Resign scheifele long term to a Little esque deal (4.5-4.7x8.

Bridge lowry ( I don't see him becomeing more then a 2 mil a year player ever)

Resign perrault to a little esq contract when his is up

Resign burmi to a perrault esq contract when his is up (assuming he's worth it, if not find a UFA)

Replace stafford with an ELC Kyle Connor when his is up


the sketchiest, tightest we'd be to cap is next year, but we'd still have 5 mil of cap space


Honestly, these numbers really aren't that frightening.

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12-15-2015, 01:17 PM
  #110
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I hate to think that the Jets might give Ladd a 6-year deal, and then not be able to get Trouba and Scheifele signed to good long-term deals.

I think Ladd or Buff has to be traded. If they trade Buff, it better be because they can get a huge return on him. Otherwise, they should trade Ladd. They shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Scheifele and Trouba are the future core players for this franchise.
I find those rumours also very concerning but not at all unexpected. Management has always been enamoured with gritty players like Ladd. Like Stuart & Thorburn, they are prepared to overpay to keep them here. IMO, this is the deal that will kill us. 6 years for Ladd is way too long (and 6 mil+ per is way too much).

Far rather we throw the big bucks at the young guys, or Buff, but we'll see where this goes. If they are indeed less than 1/2 mil apart, however, I can't see the Ladd deal not happening -- sooner or later Ladd will come to his senses & realize that he's getting a heck of a deal here. Maybe we'll be lucky & management will come to their senses, but I doubt it.

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12-15-2015, 01:37 PM
  #111
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Here's what I would do:



Edite:

Here's a link to a full size image:

http://beta.carberrygolf.ca/jets-cap-hits.png


Last edited by Grind: 12-15-2015 at 01:42 PM.
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12-15-2015, 01:57 PM
  #112
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Here's what I would do:



Edite:

Here's a link to a full size image:

http://beta.carberrygolf.ca/jets-cap-hits.png
I'm curious how you came to your number for Schiefele? Did you look at comparables? By most metrics he seems to be on track to become a very, very good two-way centre. I've struggled finding an accurate value for him.

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12-15-2015, 02:13 PM
  #113
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I'm curious how you came to your number for Schiefele? Did you look at comparables? By most metrics he seems to be on track to become a very, very good two-way centre. I've struggled finding an accurate value for him.
Couturier Plus Bryan Little.

I think Scheifs a guy that will take a discount to stay here.

He's also not looking to be much more then a Bryan Little equivelant right now (which is not a bad player at all, don't get me wrong, just not convinced he's Getzlaf/Kopitar in the making)

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12-15-2015, 02:17 PM
  #114
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I'm curious how you came to your number for Schiefele? Did you look at comparables? By most metrics he seems to be on track to become a very, very good two-way centre. I've struggled finding an accurate value for him.
Here's the closest 5v5 statistical cohorts for Scheif's current season:


On average when the closest 30 players (so more than the above list) were 24, they made 3M in adjusted salary.

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12-15-2015, 02:26 PM
  #115
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Here's what I would do:



Edite:

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http://beta.carberrygolf.ca/jets-cap-hits.png
Does Ehlers not have an extra year on his entry level contract

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12-15-2015, 02:28 PM
  #116
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Couturier Plus Bryan Little.

I think Scheifs a guy that will take a discount to stay here.

He's also not looking to be much more then a Bryan Little equivelant right now (which is not a bad player at all, don't get me wrong, just not convinced he's Getzlaf/Kopitar in the making)
He may, but 4.7 million for 8 years is pretty optimistic imo. I think your looking at Kane AAV for anything 6 years and up.

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12-15-2015, 02:28 PM
  #117
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Does Ehlers not have an extra year on his entry level contract
This is year one. Two more on his ELC

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12-15-2015, 02:30 PM
  #118
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Here's the closest 5v5 statistical cohorts for Scheif's current season:


On average when the closest 30 players (so more than the above list) were 24, they made 3M in adjusted salary.
Can we adjust that for the era's salary cap, maybe using something like the salary as a % of the cap? $4M was a much bigger relative salary in 2009 than it is today.

Also, I think that term has to be part of the equation. You could probably get Scheifele at $4.7M per year for 3 or 4 years, but you aren't getting him for that salary for 8 years.

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12-15-2015, 02:30 PM
  #119
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He's young but at this point in his career he is really bad, cant see him ever becoming more than a 4th line player and the type of player that is easily replaced.
At this point in his career he is really bad? Wow, some real experts on here, that can define a 22 year old kid in his second season in the pros.

He had a solid second half to last season, maybe give him a full second season before prematurely defining his career.

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12-15-2015, 02:38 PM
  #120
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This is year one. Two more on his ELC
So Grind's chart is a bit off that free's up 5 million for another year

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12-15-2015, 02:49 PM
  #121
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So Grind's chart is a bit off that free's up 5 million for another year
Yeah, should be another year before he gets $6M.

Something else to consider is rookie performance bonuses. They don't matter so much if we're this far under the cap like this year but could impact if we get closer. Ehlers bonuses rise over time. $575k this year. $675k next year. $850k in 17/18. Morrissey is $500k. Lemieux is $200k. College guys (1st rders) usually get even more generous bonuses to entice them out of school early so Connor and Roslovic could also impact that part of the leger.

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12-15-2015, 02:50 PM
  #122
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Couturier Plus Bryan Little.

I think Scheifs a guy that will take a discount to stay here.

He's also not looking to be much more then a Bryan Little equivelant right now (which is not a bad player at all, don't get me wrong, just not convinced he's Getzlaf/Kopitar in the making)
Yeah, I am hoping for a career like Mikko Koivu for Scheifele. That to me would be the type of "very, very good two-way player" I referred to. A shade or two below the elites.

As already mentioned, buying UFA years might cost quite a bit more than 4.7 mill AAV though. But we will see. He really seems like a team-first kind of guy who may not demand what he is worth.

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12-15-2015, 02:57 PM
  #123
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So Grind's chart is a bit off that free's up 5 million for another year
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
This is year one. Two more on his ELC
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zhamnov10 View Post
Does Ehlers not have an extra year on his entry level contract
This is correct, sorry boys, you can shave another 5 off in year 3 which is very nice for cap hit.

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12-15-2015, 03:00 PM
  #124
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would anyone really go over 5/year for scheif longterm if his pace doesn't significantly pickup?

when your throwing that much at a gamble on production over the next 2 years, i don't get why you wouldn't just bridge him? (which is fine)


again, the main purpose of this was to show how Ladd, Buff, and trouba contracts would effect us over the next 5 years, and that at even their "high" numbers, they aren't really THAT hamstringy

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12-15-2015, 03:01 PM
  #125
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Can we adjust that for the era's salary cap, maybe using something like the salary as a % of the cap? $4M was a much bigger relative salary in 2009 than it is today.

Also, I think that term has to be part of the equation. You could probably get Scheifele at $4.7M per year for 3 or 4 years, but you aren't getting him for that salary for 8 years.
Such an analysis would be very interesting.

Garret: what statistics does your graph measure? That is a pretty good list of comparables. He's a year behind Couture and Tavares, which is pretty promising. I think he has the work ethic to continue to track not far below those two.

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