HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Washington Capitals
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

TJ Oshie

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
05-16-2017, 12:10 PM
  #51
artilector
Registered User
 
artilector's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 7,499
vCash: 500
Anyway, regarding Oshie, I can live with any reasonable outcome. If Oshie leaves, and Caps get faster/younger/more cap flexible, fine. If Oshie stays on a reasonable contract, ok.

artilector is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-16-2017, 06:06 PM
  #52
Efactor
Registered User
 
Efactor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 582
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jags View Post
Okay, so do the math. With your crystal ball, he's a 20-goal scorer like MoJo at $4.6m, but he's also a top-line guy in every even-strength situation (plays 5v5, 4v4, 3v3), a key performer on PP1, a standout penalty killer, one of your best forecheckers, a decent faceoff guy, doesn't take penalties despite playing a physical game, and is one of the best shootout players in the league.

This guy wears a lot of hats for your team, and he's due a raise even from your "all about goals" perspective. There's no reason he can't learn to curb his more rambunctious tendencies to protect himself better, and he's not a speed guy, so his game figures to age well otherwise.

If you don't think he's worth it, that's fine. Just be prepared for the holes his departure will leave all over the lineup.
He is not worth much of a raise to us and I wouldn't even ponder giving more than 4 years. It is a statistical fact beyond any standard deviation that his play will decline during the contract. He either wants to come back because he admittedly doesn't like change and will do so at a hometown discount or we move on. I believe the coming changes are not going to be retooling for another run next year. They will be changes to open up another window in the near future. That means younger guys.

Efactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-17-2017, 08:57 AM
  #53
Stewie G
Needed more hitting!
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 2,847
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
How to you gauge his willingness to stay here then? Everyone always says they want to stay, but uprooting the family may get old. He seemed rather emphatic and un-Winnik like in pronouncing he wanted to stay. That literally means discount to me.

I know its un-American and all, but not everyone is all about money. Alzner took a discount to sign his last contract. If we were afraid of insulting him, should we have not offered him a contract?

If they are leaving anyways, who cares about the insult factor. TJ knows we are facing a bit of cap hell and it can be sold that way.
Alzner was a RFA when he signed his last deal. Any discount was small and not offering him a contract was pretty much not an option. Facts are important.

There is a difference between hoping for a hometown discount and straight up ignoring economic reality. Matty P. signed a 4 x $4.125M contract last summer. Matty P. Coming off back-to-back 41 point seasons with no PK time at all. Brouwer signed a 4 x $4.5M deal. Ladd for 7 x $5.5 when the wheels had already started coming off.

Let's say he was offered something like the Eriksson deal (6 x $6). Asking Oshie to take something like a 4 x $4.5M deal is probably a $15M discount, if you factor the much lower contract he'd likely sign after the 4 years is up. I don't like change all that much either, but I can be convinced to pack my stuff for $15M.

Stewie G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-17-2017, 09:23 AM
  #54
Raikkonen
In GMBT we trust
 
Raikkonen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Russia
Posts: 6,499
vCash: 500
We have our backs against the wall here. Have to sign TJ. Just have a faster winger opposite him. Not Ovi.

Orpik and Eller could be lost yesterday and I wont complain.

Raikkonen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-17-2017, 09:27 AM
  #55
twabby
Registered User
 
twabby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,208
vCash: 500
Justin Williams still seems like a much better fit than Oshie at this point at least from the Capitals' perspective. His cap-hit and term are both going to be lower than Oshie's and over the past two seasons he's actually been a better possession player and produced more at even strength/60 than Oshie despite Oshie shooting at 23% last season.

I'd imagine that Williams' decline will be sharper over the next two seasons than Oshie's just because of age but he should still be a solid middle six option and provide better value, i.e. not be wildly overpaid. It's a low-risk move and in a good case you are getting ~50 points from Williams.

Edit: Williams is behind only Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Kuznetsov in terms of even strength points over the past two seasons. Why aren't we talking about offering him a 2 year, $8 million contract instead of offering Oshie a 7 year, $40 million contract?


Last edited by twabby; 05-17-2017 at 09:35 AM..
twabby is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
05-18-2017, 01:32 AM
  #56
Jags
Mildly Disturbed
 
Jags's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Kent Island, MD
Country: United States
Posts: 399
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by twabby View Post
Justin Williams still seems like a much better fit than Oshie at this point at least from the Capitals' perspective. His cap-hit and term are both going to be lower than Oshie's and over the past two seasons he's actually been a better possession player and produced more at even strength/60 than Oshie despite Oshie shooting at 23% last season.

I'd imagine that Williams' decline will be sharper over the next two seasons than Oshie's just because of age but he should still be a solid middle six option and provide better value, i.e. not be wildly overpaid. It's a low-risk move and in a good case you are getting ~50 points from Williams.

Edit: Williams is behind only Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Kuznetsov in terms of even strength points over the past two seasons. Why aren't we talking about offering him a 2 year, $8 million contract instead of offering Oshie a 7 year, $40 million contract?
I'm not opposed to keeping Williams if the money is right, but the difference is versatility. Oshie is a better on the PP and PK, plays in all even-strength situations, and stronger on the forecheck. The shootout thing isn't a big deal, but it's not nothing.

Since it's likely a one-or-the-other situation, I'd lean toward Oshie. If it were a matter of filling a top-6 spot for a couple years because we have guys maturing in the pipleline, Williams would be the better choice. But our farm is pretty thin at RW, Oshie plugs right into our "core" age-wise, and it's been a very good fit.

Jags is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-18-2017, 08:08 AM
  #57
OV Rocks
Registered User
 
OV Rocks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Beach with Beer
Posts: 561
vCash: 500
So I have been thinking about what to do with Oshie. It is probably going to be an unpopular opinion but one I think atleast worth considering.

My Offer
8 years $5 million

Why?
Oshie plays hard and physical and does pretty much everything right there is not denying that. 8 years gives him the ability to ride out Ovechkin's contract at a still pretty competitive level and a reasonable cap hit.

4 years from now if Ovechkin retires and goes back to play 3-4 seasons in Russia (sad but realistic) at that point Oshie would make a fantastic Captain for the team all while remaining fairly productive. The next 4 seasons Oshie declines slightly probably but still serviceable, Doan, Marleau, Iginla, etc.

A long term approach for Oshie

OV Rocks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-18-2017, 08:21 AM
  #58
twabby
Registered User
 
twabby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,208
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jags View Post
I'm not opposed to keeping Williams if the money is right, but the difference is versatility. Oshie is a better on the PP and PK, plays in all even-strength situations, and stronger on the forecheck. The shootout thing isn't a big deal, but it's not nothing.

Since it's likely a one-or-the-other situation, I'd lean toward Oshie. If it were a matter of filling a top-6 spot for a couple years because we have guys maturing in the pipleline, Williams would be the better choice. But our farm is pretty thin at RW, Oshie plugs right into our "core" age-wise, and it's been a very good fit.
I don't necessarily think he's much better on the PP and if I had to pick any position on the PP that is easily replaceable it's the bumper spot in the middle. Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Justin Williams have all also performed well in that role so I don't really see the PP dropping off if Williams takes over for Oshie. Also Oshie isn't even on their first or second group of PKing forwards so again I'm not really seeing it being a big deal to find a replacement.

I actually think Williams fits better into our core window because Oshie is going to command 6 years which runs past the contracts of Ovechkin, Backstrom, Holtby, and Niskanen and who knows what the team will look like then. A 2-year deal for Williams falls into the prime of Kuznetsov and Burakovsky, along with whatever is left of Ovechkin the next two years and 2 more likely years of solid play from Backstrom. It also allows more room to sign guys like Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Orlov, and Schmidt.

I'm not saying Williams is better than Oshie but he's not really much worse either IMO and I'm not in favor of paying millions more for at best a marginal upgrade. If I were MacLellan I'd definitely prioritize Williams before Oshie.

twabby is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
05-18-2017, 08:25 AM
  #59
Stewie G
Needed more hitting!
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 2,847
vCash: 500
After reading that, I'm in favor of Williams over Oshie too unless TJ takes a borderline insulting deal to stay.

Stewie G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-18-2017, 12:28 PM
  #60
Jags
Mildly Disturbed
 
Jags's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Kent Island, MD
Country: United States
Posts: 399
vCash: 500
It's a great argument, twabby, but Backstrom will be 31 when his contract ends, and I think he'll be someone we look to keep. Holtby will be 29 the same year, and won't command a raise unless he's still top-tier elite. If we move on from him, it'll be because Samsonov or someone else blew up, so that position doesn't figure to look different or cost more, either.

A year later, Niskanen and Ovechkin's deals are up. At 33, you'll extend Niskanen if you think he's worth it, or replace him for comparable money. So again, his role on the team (whatever it is by then) won't look all that different with or without him.

Ovechkin, you probably take the money and run, but who knows? At 34, maybe he'll shave off some money from his deal to stick around. Maybe he'll be worth it. Who knows what his game will look like by then?

Either way, I don't think you necessarily avoid spending an extra $2m and the term to go with the better player today. And I admit that it affects my mindset that Oshie talked seriously about staying and Williams seemed down and wasn't so subtle about implying that he might be done here. I want guys that want to be here. That's reading way into one comment from Williams, I know.

If we can move Eller and Orpik, there's a chance we can keep both of these guys.

Jags is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:12 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. @2017 All Rights Reserved.