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Teemu Selanne = Hall of Fame?

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Old
12-10-2005, 03:26 PM
  #1
NYR1084
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Teemu Selanne = Hall of Fame?

Hey

I was looking over a few stats and I ended up on Selanne. He has put up some good numbers, including the record year in his rookie year.

Is he definitely in the HOF? Borderline? No?


Kev

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12-10-2005, 03:45 PM
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Selanne`s numbers are very impressive over his career, but they look lower than they are because of the dead puck era. A while back on here, somebody (I think Hockey Outsider) posted a list of the top all-time scorers with their totals adjusted for eras and Selanne finished much higher than I would have expected.

Hall of Fame? Selanne has had virtually no success of any type in the playoffs in his career. If your playoff resume is that thin, then you have to put up Marcel Dionne-type numbers in the regular season in order to overcome that and get in the Hall. He`ll also be hurt by the fact that his best season was his rookie season, making everything that came afterwards look not as impressive.

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12-10-2005, 03:46 PM
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Nowhere near borderline yet.

After his rookie season he developed the reputation of NOT being clutch enough when counted on late in the season and/or playoffs, deservedly so or not.

Even if he wins a Conn Smythe he isn't borderline. But two Cups and a major individual award would put him borderline, IMO.

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12-10-2005, 03:47 PM
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For me, he's a lock.

When you lead the NHL in goals 3 times, and come within 1 goal of doing it a 4th time, you go to the HHOF. Runner-up for the scoring title twice.

1995-96 - 40 goals, 108 points ... 7th in league scoring
1996-97 - 51 goals, 109 points ... 2nd in league scoring (2nd in goals)
1997-98 - 52 goals, 86 points .... 8th in league scoring (1st in goals)
1998-99 - 47 goals, 107 points ... 2nd in league scoring (1st in goals)
1999-00 - 33 goals, 85 points .... 5th in league scoring

Even leaving out his 76-goal rookie season, that string of 5 years in Anaheim will get him in. When you're clearly a top-5 (probably top-3) offensive player in the league for a span like that, you go into the HHOF, no questions asked.

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12-10-2005, 04:10 PM
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I think reckoning hit it bang on. The HHOF voters don't just look at regular season. Lots of guys put up big regular season totals and aren't in the Hall, and won't make it to the Hall. (Witness Pierre Turgeon). Selanne's playoff numbers (33 points in 49 games) are rather underwhelming, especially for a player with his talent. He never carried his team on his back when it mattered most. He never had that eye-popping, career-defining, talk about it 20 years later playoff. If you're going to fade in the playoffs, you darn well better have a Marcel Dionne portfolio. Selanne doesn't.

If Selanne has two more regular seasons at the level of 1993 or 1996-1999, then I think he'll get considered. If he has that dominant or brilliant playoff that he's never had, again, he'll get considered. But if his career ends tomorrow, then no, he doesn't get in. (I think if you give him the playoff portfolio of say, a Trevor Linden or a Brian Propp, players who aren't good enough to make the Hall but were always reliable in the clutch, even though they didn't win a Cup, I think Selanne would be inducted).

I'd vote for Selanne ahead of Bure or Mogilny, but I don't think Selanne's there yet.

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12-10-2005, 04:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
I think reckoning hit it bang on. The HHOF voters don't just look at regular season. Lots of guys put up big regular season totals and aren't in the Hall, and won't make it to the Hall. (Witness Pierre Turgeon). Selanne's playoff numbers (33 points in 49 games) are rather underwhelming, especially for a player with his talent. He never carried his team on his back when it mattered most. He never had that eye-popping, career-defining, talk about it 20 years later playoff. If you're going to fade in the playoffs, you darn well better have a Marcel Dionne portfolio. Selanne doesn't.

If Selanne has two more regular seasons at the level of 1993 or 1996-1999, then I think he'll get considered. If he has that dominant or brilliant playoff that he's never had, again, he'll get considered. But if his career ends tomorrow, then no, he doesn't get in. (I think if you give him the playoff portfolio of say, a Trevor Linden or a Brian Propp, players who aren't good enough to make the Hall but were always reliable in the clutch, even though they didn't win a Cup, I think Selanne would be inducted).

I'd vote for Selanne ahead of Bure or Mogilny, but I don't think Selanne's there yet.
I'll grant you that Mogilny is borderline, and I understand your arguments even though I'd have him in.

Selanne is, to me, an absolute no-brainer. His resume dwarfs those of a pile of recent inductees. Lafontaine? Neely? Even the Hawerchuks of the world, while statistically superior, had inferior careers when you adjust for the era. If Selanne isn't in the HHOF, he's easily the best player not inducted. Name another player who led the league in goals 3 times who isn't in the HHOF. Or runner-up for the Art Ross twice.

Selanne's string of seasons between 92-2000 was absolutely dominant. Of the 7 seasons in that stretch where he was healthy, he was top-5 in either goals or points in 6 of them. First or second in goals 4 times. Post-season All-star 4 times, played in the All-star game every year except 1 between 1993-2003. That is Dionne-esque, even though he doesn't have the same sort of career numbers because of the era.

For me, Cup/no Cup comes into play when you're Pat Verbeek or some marginal player as a deciding factor. Not when you were a top-5 forward in the game for an 8-year stretch. Every player, ever, who had a comparable stretch to what Selanne did in the 1990s went straight to the HHOF.

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12-10-2005, 05:45 PM
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I'd probably put Selanne in the Hall. He was consistently one of the best players in the league for close to a decade. A few points to consider:

- Selanne led the league in goals three times (and was one goal away from leading it a fourth time). Every eligible player that led the league in goals at least twice is in the Hall of Fame.

- Since Selanne entered the league in 1993, he's scored more goals than any player except Jagr and more points than any player except Jagr and Sakic.

- Unfortunately, Selanne's teams only made the playoffs twice during his prime. He was a solid performer in each of those years (though, obviously, he's never had a truly dynamic playoff run). Since leaving Anaheim, however, his playoff performance dropped.

- Adjusted-for-era: 908 games, 515 goals, 1046 points (not counting this year).

- Selanne was a four-time year-end all star. I think every eligible player who was a four-time all star, except Rick Martin, is in the Hall of Fame.

Selanne's subpar playoff performance is a big strike against him, but I think that his complete dominance in the regular season put him close, if not in, the Hall.

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12-10-2005, 06:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MS
I'll grant you that Mogilny is borderline, and I understand your arguments even though I'd have him in.

Selanne is, to me, an absolute no-brainer. His resume dwarfs those of a pile of recent inductees. Lafontaine? Neely? Even the Hawerchuks of the world, while statistically superior, had inferior careers when you adjust for the era. If Selanne isn't in the HHOF, he's easily the best player not inducted. Name another player who led the league in goals 3 times who isn't in the HHOF. Or runner-up for the Art Ross twice.

Selanne's string of seasons between 92-2000 was absolutely dominant. Of the 7 seasons in that stretch where he was healthy, he was top-5 in either goals or points in 6 of them. First or second in goals 4 times. Post-season All-star 4 times, played in the All-star game every year except 1 between 1993-2003. That is Dionne-esque, even though he doesn't have the same sort of career numbers because of the era.

For me, Cup/no Cup comes into play when you're Pat Verbeek or some marginal player as a deciding factor. Not when you were a top-5 forward in the game for an 8-year stretch. Every player, ever, who had a comparable stretch to what Selanne did in the 1990s went straight to the HHOF.
There's more to evaluation than awards and adjusted for era. (Adjusted for era is an argument that I have little to no use for. The ultimate example of the "liars figure and figures lie" cliche). I watched Selanne play, I watched LaFontaine play and I watched Neely play, and Selanne is a cut below all of them. To even mention Selanne and Hawerchuk in the same breath, other than "Hawerchuk was a much better player than Selanne," is a crime.

LaFontaine was, at one point, one of the top three players on the planet. Only injuries from a robust style of play kept him from the top 10 scorers of all time. Neely is one of the greatest blend of goal scoring and physical play ever. Only injuries kept him from 700 goals. Selanne doesn't have injuries as an excuse. Hawerchuk? Well, he was one of the top five centres in the greatest era for playmaking centres ever. He turned Paul MacLean into a 100-point scorer. The only reasons he doesn't have multiple first team all-star selections are Gretzky and Lemieux. And even though he doesn't have a Cup, he at least managed to produce in the playoffs, despite some short appearances on some mediocre teams.

If you don't have some kind of track record for playoff production, you'd better have flawless regular season credentials. Selanne does not. Even in 1999-2000, there were a lot of people in Anaheim dissatisfied with his performance. He has not been an impact NHLer since that 2000 season. He had some great years (I thought he was the best forward in the league in 1998), but his shoddy playoff record and his performance since the 1998-99 season will keep him out.

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12-10-2005, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
There's more to evaluation than awards and adjusted for era. (Adjusted for era is an argument that I have little to no use for. The ultimate example of the "liars figure and figures lie" cliche). I watched Selanne play, I watched LaFontaine play and I watched Neely play, and Selanne is a cut below all of them. To even mention Selanne and Hawerchuk in the same breath, other than "Hawerchuk was a much better player than Selanne," is a crime.
You have no use for adjusting for eras?

So then you rate Brian Propp's 95-point seasons in the 1980s which placed him 20th in league scoring equal to Iginla's 95-point Art Ross season in 2002? You rate a 100 point season in 1985 as the same as a 100-point season now?

Selanne scoring 100 points in the late 1990s is roughly equivalent to a 120-130 point season in the 1980s.

Scoring changed. Accept it.

I watched these players too. Selanne in the 1990s was one of the most dominant goalscorers I've ever seen. And of the three snipers who dominated the decade (Bure and Hull the others) he was by far the most complete player. There's no way you can rate Lafontaine and Hawerchuk clearly ahead of him - at worst they're all in the same ballpark for individual dominance. Relevant to his peers, Selanne was the most dominant. Neely you can argue was more dominant because he combined similar goalscoring ability with a physical game that Selanne didn't have.

Quote:
Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
LaFontaine was, at one point, one of the top three players on the planet. Only injuries from a robust style of play kept him from the top 10 scorers of all time. Neely is one of the greatest blend of goal scoring and physical play ever. Only injuries kept him from 700 goals. Selanne doesn't have injuries as an excuse. Hawerchuk? Well, he was one of the top five centres in the greatest era for playmaking centres ever. He turned Paul MacLean into a 100-point scorer. The only reasons he doesn't have multiple first team all-star selections are Gretzky and Lemieux. And even though he doesn't have a Cup, he at least managed to produce in the playoffs, despite some short appearances on some mediocre teams.
Lafontaine was one of the top 3 players on the planet for 1 season (and wow does that THN player ranking from 1993 get mileage here from Lafontaine fans). Other than that he was never even top-5 in league scoring, and was top-10 only once. Selanne was one of the top 3 players on the planet in at least two seasons (1992-93, 1997-98).

And Lafontaine was not on pace to be a top-10 All-time scorer. He had 950 points and was closing in on his 32nd birthday when Leroux clocked him in 1996.

Hawerchuk had 4 seasons where he was top-10 in scoring, and two where he was top-5. Selanne had 6 seasons where he was top-10, and 4 where he was top-5. Selanne's best seasons were statistically better than Hawerchuk's despite the era. Only once was Hawerchuk amongst the top 3 scoring centers in the game, which makes your claim that he'd have had multiple first-team All-star nods save for Gretzky and Lemieux ring a little false. I don't think it's a 'crime' to compare Selanne's impact in his 132-point season to Hawerchuk's impact in his 130-point career year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
If you don't have some kind of track record for playoff production, you'd better have flawless regular season credentials. Selanne does not. Even in 1999-2000, there were a lot of people in Anaheim dissatisfied with his performance. He has not been an impact NHLer since that 2000 season. He had some great years (I thought he was the best forward in the league in 1998), but his shoddy playoff record and his performance since the 1998-99 season will keep him out.
I can think of lots of HHOF players who diminished somewhat after age 30 (Hawerchuk amongst them). And injuries are an excuse - he's complained for several seasons about his knees, and once he finally had surgery, suddenly he's looking like a 40 goal scorer again this year.

His regular season credentials between 1992-2000 *are* flawless. It's a brilliant stretch. It will get him into the HHOF.

As was mentioned, since 1992 only Jagr has more points. When you only have 1 player ahead of you in a stretch of time that long, that counts for something.

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12-10-2005, 07:34 PM
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Selanne is in the record books as the one who scored an NHL record 76 goals as a rookie.

If he retires now that's all he should be remembered for.

There are far more illustrious careers worth profiling in the HHOF than his. Far more.

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12-10-2005, 08:26 PM
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No way does Selanne belong in the hall. Yet he has a record that is seemingly untouchable, which you have to give him credit for.

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12-10-2005, 09:46 PM
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Originally Posted by VanIslander
Selanne is in the record books as the one who scored an NHL record 76 goals as a rookie.

If he retires now that's all he should be remembered for.

There are far more illustrious careers worth profiling in the HHOF than his. Far more.
Give me a break. He'll have 500 goals, 1000 points. 2nd leading scorer in the league over a 12-season stretch. 3 times leading the league in goals. 4 post-season All-star berths. 10 All-star games (likely an 11th this year). Twice runner-up for the Art Ross. He shouldn't be remembered for any of that?

His rookie year wasn't even his best season. His best season was 97-98, when he scored 52 goals to lead the league on a team where no-one else had more than 50 points. Or either of the two years where he was 2nd in league scoring.

It wasn't his fault scoring dropped by 35% over the next few years. No-one who produced gaudy numbers from 1990-93 was ever able to replicate them again. The game changed ... because he wasn't able to score 76 goals again doesn't mean that he declined after that point.

By the current standards, he's an HHOFer easily. It's a no-brainer. Even if he'd done nothing else, the fact that he led the league in goals 3 times would be enough. Scoring wingers like Steve Shutt, Bill Barber, Clark Gillies, Joe Mullen, Lanny McDonald, Michel Goulet are all in. Selanne's career creams every single one of those guys. Every 500-goal scorer is in save Ciccarelli and Verbeek, and his career beats theirs too.

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12-10-2005, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by MS
You have no use for adjusting for eras?

So then you rate Brian Propp's 95-point seasons in the 1980s which placed him 20th in league scoring equal to Iginla's 95-point Art Ross season in 2002? You rate a 100 point season in 1985 as the same as a 100-point season now?

Selanne scoring 100 points in the late 1990s is roughly equivalent to a 120-130 point season in the 1980s.

Scoring changed. Accept it.

I watched these players too. Selanne in the 1990s was one of the most dominant goalscorers I've ever seen. And of the three snipers who dominated the decade (Bure and Hull the others) he was by far the most complete player. There's no way you can rate Lafontaine and Hawerchuk clearly ahead of him - at worst they're all in the same ballpark for individual dominance. Relevant to his peers, Selanne was the most dominant. Neely you can argue was more dominant because he combined similar goalscoring ability with a physical game that Selanne didn't have.



Lafontaine was one of the top 3 players on the planet for 1 season (and wow does that THN player ranking from 1993 get mileage here from Lafontaine fans). Other than that he was never even top-5 in league scoring, and was top-10 only once. Selanne was one of the top 3 players on the planet in at least two seasons (1992-93, 1997-98).

And Lafontaine was not on pace to be a top-10 All-time scorer. He had 950 points and was closing in on his 32nd birthday when Leroux clocked him in 1996.

Hawerchuk had 4 seasons where he was top-10 in scoring, and two where he was top-5. Selanne had 6 seasons where he was top-10, and 4 where he was top-5. Selanne's best seasons were statistically better than Hawerchuk's despite the era. Only once was Hawerchuk amongst the top 3 scoring centers in the game, which makes your claim that he'd have had multiple first-team All-star nods save for Gretzky and Lemieux ring a little false. I don't think it's a 'crime' to compare Selanne's impact in his 132-point season to Hawerchuk's impact in his 130-point career year.



I can think of lots of HHOF players who diminished somewhat after age 30 (Hawerchuk amongst them). And injuries are an excuse - he's complained for several seasons about his knees, and once he finally had surgery, suddenly he's looking like a 40 goal scorer again this year.

His regular season credentials between 1992-2000 *are* flawless. It's a brilliant stretch. It will get him into the HHOF.

As was mentioned, since 1992 only Jagr has more points. When you only have 1 player ahead of you in a stretch of time that long, that counts for something.
In the end, the reasons why Selanne doesn't get in the Hall: 33 and 49. That's how many points he has in his career playoff games. You can cite your other stats all you want. An offensive player who scores at a 55-point pace (pro-rated over 82 games) in his playoff career has no place in the Hall, unless there is an epic, unforgettable regular season record. (Witness Marcel Dionne). Joe Sakic had more points in the 1996 playoffs than Selanne has in his entire career. The only way Selanne could get in the Hall with that number is with a Dionne-esque portfolio (Third in goals and points upon retirement, 2 Pearsons and an Art Ross).

Weighting for era has little value to me. In reality, what it boils down to is whether or not they produced. Iginla's 95 points is more impressive than Propp's, but I think most players would only score about 10 per cent more if they were teleported into the 1980s.

Hawerchuk was a much better player than Selanne. His stickhandling, hockey sense and playmaking rank among the all-time greats. IMO, he'd be a 100-point scorer in today's NHL. His accomplishments are even more impressive considering the talent he was surrounded with in Winnipeg. No offence to Morris Lukowich, Paul MacLean and Laurie Boschman, but they aren't anywhere near Hawerchuk's calibre. Selanne at least had Tkachuk and a motivated Zhamnov in Winnipeg, and Kariya in Anaheim.

Keep in mind that LaFontaine lost over 100 games from 1993 to 1995. It wasn't just the concussion that held him back. LaFontaine provided some of the finest play I've ever seen from a forward in 1989-1990. He carried that NYI team to the playoffs. He scored 105 in 74 games, 37 more than the next-best player on the team, Brent Sutter, and nearly double the No. 3 forward on the team. I've long maintained that 1989-90, not 1991-92 or 1992-93, was his best season.

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12-10-2005, 10:54 PM
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mogilny and selanne both strike me as non-hall material

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12-10-2005, 10:54 PM
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I think he'll get in.

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12-10-2005, 11:29 PM
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Originally Posted by MS
Give me a break. He'll have 500 goals, 1000 points. 2nd leading scorer in the league over a 12-season stretch. 3 times leading the league in goals. 4 post-season All-star berths. 10 All-star games (likely an 11th this year). Twice runner-up for the Art Ross. He shouldn't be remembered for any of that?

His rookie year wasn't even his best season. His best season was 97-98, when he scored 52 goals to lead the league on a team where no-one else had more than 50 points. Or either of the two years where he was 2nd in league scoring.

It wasn't his fault scoring dropped by 35% over the next few years. No-one who produced gaudy numbers from 1990-93 was ever able to replicate them again. The game changed ... because he wasn't able to score 76 goals again doesn't mean that he declined after that point.

By the current standards, he's an HHOFer easily. It's a no-brainer. Even if he'd done nothing else, the fact that he led the league in goals 3 times would be enough. Scoring wingers like Steve Shutt, Bill Barber, Clark Gillies, Joe Mullen, Lanny McDonald, Michel Goulet are all in. Selanne's career creams every single one of those guys. Every 500-goal scorer is in save Ciccarelli and Verbeek, and his career beats theirs too.
Glad you brought up 97/98...he was a dominant player on a team void of ANY talent if Kariya hadn't held out Selanne has more points and a legit MVP case.

He'll have 1,000 points by the end of the year and looks like he has a few years left in his legs. I think he's borderline...for people to say he has no shot is a joke.

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12-10-2005, 11:30 PM
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already lock...

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12-10-2005, 11:44 PM
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Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
In the end, the reasons why Selanne doesn't get in the Hall: 33 and 49. That's how many points he has in his career playoff games. You can cite your other stats all you want. An offensive player who scores at a 55-point pace (pro-rated over 82 games) in his playoff career has no place in the Hall, unless there is an epic, unforgettable regular season record. (Witness Marcel Dionne). Joe Sakic had more points in the 1996 playoffs than Selanne has in his entire career. The only way Selanne could get in the Hall with that number is with a Dionne-esque portfolio (Third in goals and points upon retirement, 2 Pearsons and an Art Ross).

Weighting for era has little value to me. In reality, what it boils down to is whether or not they produced. Iginla's 95 points is more impressive than Propp's, but I think most players would only score about 10 per cent more if they were teleported into the 1980s.

Hawerchuk was a much better player than Selanne. His stickhandling, hockey sense and playmaking rank among the all-time greats. IMO, he'd be a 100-point scorer in today's NHL. His accomplishments are even more impressive considering the talent he was surrounded with in Winnipeg. No offence to Morris Lukowich, Paul MacLean and Laurie Boschman, but they aren't anywhere near Hawerchuk's calibre. Selanne at least had Tkachuk and a motivated Zhamnov in Winnipeg, and Kariya in Anaheim.

Keep in mind that LaFontaine lost over 100 games from 1993 to 1995. It wasn't just the concussion that held him back. LaFontaine provided some of the finest play I've ever seen from a forward in 1989-1990. He carried that NYI team to the playoffs. He scored 105 in 74 games, 37 more than the next-best player on the team, Brent Sutter, and nearly double the No. 3 forward on the team. I've long maintained that 1989-90, not 1991-92 or 1992-93, was his best season.
Selanne's playoff record is skewed by a couple poor showings when he was past his prime, especially in 2004. In playoff games during his prime (1992-2000), he scored 13 goals in 21 games - the same sort of 50-goal form he showed during the regular season. Unfortunately he was marooned on terrible teams in Winnipeg and Anaheim, which really isn't his fault.

Lets break Selanne's career into several HHOF-defining categories:

- everyone who's scored 500 goals is in the HHOF, save for two guys (Verbeek and Ciccarelli, and Ciccarelli will probably get in eventually). Both of these guys aren't in because they were 40-goal types in an offensively inflated era who weren't amongst the league's elite. Selanne doesn't fit into this category - if he isn't inducted he'd be the first player ever who was a 500-goal scorer and consistent top-5 regular season goal scorer who wasn't inducted.

- every player with 4 or more post-season All-star nods is in the HHOF, save Rick Martin whose career ended at age 28, and thus ended up with lacking career numbers. Selanne isn't in Martin's category, and if not inducted would be the first 4-time All-star with a complete career who wasn't inducted.

- every player who has led the league in goals twice or more is inducted. Selanne would be the first player to do so and not be inducted.

- every player with 10+ All-star games (since the format changed from a challenge vs. the Cup champions) is inducted. Selanne would be the first not to be.

- every player who finished top-5 in scoring on at least 4 occasions is in the HHOF. Selanne would be the first not to be.

How many categories like this do you need? By established criteria, Selanne goes into the HHOF. It's not even a debate, in my mind.

_________

Hawerchuk was right around 100 points most years during the 1980s. I don't see how he'd still be a 100-point player now when scoring league-wide is 35-40% lower. IMO you severely over-rate the impact of the drop in scoring from 1990-2000. Basically the league went from 8 GPG to 5.

I agree that Lafontaine's 1990 season was huge - I think he had 32 goals his first 35 games that year or something along those lines and was keeping pace with Hull in the first half of the season - but he still wasn't a top-3 player in the league that year (Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Bourque, Hull).

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12-10-2005, 11:52 PM
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Lets break Selanne's career into several HHOF-defining categories:
HHOF Monitor # 66

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12-11-2005, 12:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MS
Give me a break. He'll have 500 goals, 1000 points. 2nd leading scorer in the league over a 12-season stretch. 3 times leading the league in goals. 4 post-season All-star berths. 10 All-star games (likely an 11th this year). Twice runner-up for the Art Ross. He shouldn't be remembered for any of that?
This pretty much says it all

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12-11-2005, 12:30 AM
  #21
God Bless Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MS
Selanne's playoff record is skewed by a couple poor showings when he was past his prime, especially in 2004. In playoff games during his prime (1992-2000), he scored 13 goals in 21 games - the same sort of 50-goal form he showed during the regular season. Unfortunately he was marooned on terrible teams in Winnipeg and Anaheim, which really isn't his fault.

Lets break Selanne's career into several HHOF-defining categories:

- everyone who's scored 500 goals is in the HHOF, save for two guys (Verbeek and Ciccarelli, and Ciccarelli will probably get in eventually). Both of these guys aren't in because they were 40-goal types in an offensively inflated era who weren't amongst the league's elite. Selanne doesn't fit into this category - if he isn't inducted he'd be the first player ever who was a 500-goal scorer and consistent top-5 regular season goal scorer who wasn't inducted.

- every player with 4 or more post-season All-star nods is in the HHOF, save Rick Martin whose career ended at age 28, and thus ended up with lacking career numbers. Selanne isn't in Martin's category, and if not inducted would be the first 4-time All-star with a complete career who wasn't inducted.

- every player who has led the league in goals twice or more is inducted. Selanne would be the first player to do so and not be inducted.

- every player with 10+ All-star games (since the format changed from a challenge vs. the Cup champions) is inducted. Selanne would be the first not to be.

- every player who finished top-5 in scoring on at least 4 occasions is in the HHOF. Selanne would be the first not to be.

How many categories like this do you need? By established criteria, Selanne goes into the HHOF. It's not even a debate, in my mind.

_________

Hawerchuk was right around 100 points most years during the 1980s. I don't see how he'd still be a 100-point player now when scoring league-wide is 35-40% lower. IMO you severely over-rate the impact of the drop in scoring from 1990-2000. Basically the league went from 8 GPG to 5.

I agree that Lafontaine's 1990 season was huge - I think he had 32 goals his first 35 games that year or something along those lines and was keeping pace with Hull in the first half of the season - but he still wasn't a top-3 player in the league that year (Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Bourque, Hull).
The four or more post-season all-star criteria will soon have another member: Rob Blake. Blake has four, and he's not getting in. (IMO, he's about the same as Randy Carlyle, and I don't hear any clamouring from even Carlyle's most ardent supporters). Neely had four, was a better player than Selanne, and look how long it took Neely to get in.

All-star games are the bastian of irrelevance. I don't think I've ever heard of anyone saying "he played in at least 10 all-star games" as the distinction that elevated a player to the HHOF.

We're going to see a lot of players who are going to set new standards for HHOF. 1,300 or even 1,400 points won't be enough for Turgeon, Sundin, Recchi or Andreychuk. Ciccarelli will set a new standard for goals. (Sorry, Dino fans, but he isn't getting inducted). Turgeon's not getting in with 500 goals, and other players who are approaching 500 (Bondra, Roenick, Sundin, Recchi, Mogilny, Modano) won't get in, either. (Bondra also led the league in goals twice).

What category do I need? Playoff performance. Bottom line. Selanne doesn't have it. He has never carried his team on his back when it mattered most. He doesn't have a career-defining playoff, or even a really strong playoff. He never stepped his play up from the regular season to the playoffs. (Something that pretty much everyone in the HHOF did at some point in their career. Dionne, again, is the exception). Yes, Selanne was on some mediocre teams, but the reality is he could not produce. A lot of guys in the HHOF have played on a lot of mediocre teams, but still produced in the most important season, the post-season. That is why, regardless of the stats or the evaluation system that you throw out there, Teemu Selanne will not get in.


Last edited by God Bless Canada: 12-11-2005 at 12:40 AM.
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12-11-2005, 03:06 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
The four or more post-season all-star criteria will soon have another member: Rob Blake. Blake has four, and he's not getting in. (IMO, he's about the same as Randy Carlyle, and I don't hear any clamouring from even Carlyle's most ardent supporters). Neely had four, was a better player than Selanne, and look how long it took Neely to get in.

All-star games are the bastian of irrelevance. I don't think I've ever heard of anyone saying "he played in at least 10 all-star games" as the distinction that elevated a player to the HHOF.

We're going to see a lot of players who are going to set new standards for HHOF. 1,300 or even 1,400 points won't be enough for Turgeon, Sundin, Recchi or Andreychuk. Ciccarelli will set a new standard for goals. (Sorry, Dino fans, but he isn't getting inducted). Turgeon's not getting in with 500 goals, and other players who are approaching 500 (Bondra, Roenick, Sundin, Recchi, Mogilny, Modano) won't get in, either. (Bondra also led the league in goals twice).

What category do I need? Playoff performance. Bottom line. Selanne doesn't have it. He has never carried his team on his back when it mattered most. He doesn't have a career-defining playoff, or even a really strong playoff. He never stepped his play up from the regular season to the playoffs. (Something that pretty much everyone in the HHOF did at some point in their career. Dionne, again, is the exception). Yes, Selanne was on some mediocre teams, but the reality is he could not produce. A lot of guys in the HHOF have played on a lot of mediocre teams, but still produced in the most important season, the post-season. That is why, regardless of the stats or the evaluation system that you throw out there, Teemu Selanne will not get in.
Your standards aren't in line with what the HHOF's standards are. Based on what you're saying, you'd only have 3 forwards (Jagr, Forsberg, Sakic) who were in their primes in the 'dead-puck era' between 1994-2004 making the Hall. The number will be much, much higher than that. Sundin, Fedorov, Modano and Roenick will all make it. So will Bondra, in all likelihood. Some of Mogilny, Recchi, Turgeon etc. will, too.

When was Hawerchuk's dominant playoff? Lafontaine's? Andy Bathgate's? Mike Gartner's? Again, when Selanne was in the playoffs in his prime, he scored at a 50-goal clip. In the 1998 Olympics, he led the tourney in scoring and carried Finland to an surprise Bronze medal. He didn't choke in the clutch. Unfortunately he played for two crap organizations with a crap supporting cast. Went from a faltering organization on the verge of moving to an expansion team. What is he supposed to do about that? It's not like he was playing on 100-point teams and then laying an egg in the playoffs.

Selanne will get in. It would completely re-set the bar if he didn't.

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12-11-2005, 05:49 AM
  #23
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I wasn't sure when I went into this thread, but MS has convinced me.

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12-11-2005, 07:30 AM
  #24
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Selšnne was the most profilic scorer of the 90's, Jagr excluded. He was the best player in the league in 97/98 (52 goals playing with Rucchin and Young!) and he will most likely own the rookie scoring record for the next 30 years.

In.

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12-11-2005, 09:08 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanschu
I wasn't sure when I went into this thread, but MS has convinced me.
I was going to say the exact same thing.

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