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The Resigning of Redden

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Old
12-12-2005, 09:25 AM
  #26
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From reading the thread I see everyone wants Redden to stay. I agree I was just thinking of a way to get Meszaros top 4 minutes. The kid deserves to develop into the best player he can be. So do the Sens let Phillips walk and give Meszaros his minutes. I don't know Chara-Phillips is one of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL. Quite the problem Muckler has but its a good one to have.

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12-12-2005, 09:26 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GSG
The 13.5M number is the rumour from the summer that Muckler offered Redden, Chara, and Hossa the same deal, and only one of them rejected (guess who). If Redden and Chara still intend on going by the Alfie cap as the rumour persists, then I think every Sens fan would be esctatic. It would only be a 1.6M raise for both of them (800K each), so I don't know if it will happen.
I think that $13.5 over 3 years is an unreasonable target, now that it appears revenues, and hence the cap, is going up.

Last time around, Chara and Redden both signed for about $5 mil a season, which was reduced under the rollback. In that time period, both have become better players, and, most importantly, salaries will be going up. Chara and Redden both now, if they do hit the UFA market, both of them will be in high regard. I'm sure there is a willingness to take a bit of a reduction in pay to stay with a winner, but, if there are $7 mil a season deals out there to be had (quite possible), how much are they willing to take.

If $13.5M/3 seasons was the deal offered in the summer, that amount will have to be bumped up. Up to what, it's hard to say. I think both players have the intention to stay with the team.

I think a guy like Chara would also love to have a deal locked up before he goes into the playoffs. He's extremely competitive, and, I see him as the type of guy that would prefer the security of being signed going into the playoffs. His style of play could easily result in injury, and, without a long-term contract in hand, he puts himself at great risk. Chara's also been on another team, and, from what I guess, I imagine that his experience in Long Island wasn't the happiest one. He went from one of the worst run franchises, to one of the best. He may see a lot of value in staying with an organization that seems to do the right thing. Chara also has flourished in Ottawa. No one saw him as anything special until he came here. Hopefully, he attributes some of his success to the Senators, and takes that into consideration, when he considers contract offers.

However, if I was Chara's agent, I'd be looking at him as my meal ticket. He's a beast out there. Pronger got over $6 mil a season, and Neids got nearly $7 mil, and had offers for more. If the cap goes up next season, the max goes up, and more importantly, you will have a number of teams that have the cap room to go after such a player. He's the rare type of player that automatically changes the face of your team, that it's hard to estimate what some GM may value him at.

Redden is even harder read. It's hard to tell where his mindset is. He's put down a lot of roots in this community, but, he also knows that he probably won't be here forever. He's a guy that has been a steady defencemen for years, and is one of the leagues best, but, he now plays in Chara's long shadow. I think there is always a need for players to be recognized as the best, and it's hard for Redden to do that, especially here. I have no idea what his motivations might be, but, we do know that this organization has treated him very well. He has never gone through any real rough negotiations in this city. He has always been paid market rates. He has been given a leadership position on this team.

At the same time, he has never been anywhere else. He may have a desire to play for a different team. His family is on the other side of the country, and perhaps he would like to be a little closer. If he signs in Ottawa, he won't be going back to play in front of them for another 3 years, due to the current schedule.

In terms of what he can get on the open market, he also is an attractive commodity. His game is built for the new NHL. He plays a quiet but very effective game, and, his calm demeanour is a great mentoring influence on younger players. He has had almost no health problems, with this current knee injury being one of the rare exceptions. I could see a lot of teams willing to commit to a long term contract with a guy like Redden for that exact reason.

For both guys, it comes down to motivations though. If they want to stay here, I think we have the ability to sign them to deals that makes sense for both them, and the team. If either wants to test the waters though, we've lost them. Once other teams get a chance at them, I think the amounts will get unreasonable. This team can't afford to go over $6 mil for any player, even with an elevated cap, and I think both would have no problem getting that amount. I do hold a lot of faith in Muckler though. The Heatley-Hossa deal, IMO, showed a tremendous amount of vision, and understanding of the importance of making this CBA work for the team, and, I'm pretty confident that we'll ice a contending team for the next few years because of it. Whether it includes Chara and/or Redden remains to be seen, but, I remain decidedly optimistic.

Wow, that turned out to be a long post, sorry for the lengthy read guys.

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12-12-2005, 09:28 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by discostu
Wow, that turned out to be a long post, sorry for the lengthy read guys.
Nothing wrong with a lengthy-read when it is replete with a lot of rational and informative reasoning.

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12-12-2005, 09:53 AM
  #29
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Assuming Garrioch can quote correctly, he wrote the following today:

Even though Redden and Chara could become unrestricted free agents this summer, it's doubtful the Senators will move either of them before the end of the year. In fact, GM John Muckler will be making an effort to re-sign them next month. "We're going to try to keep both," said Muckler recently. "Are we going to be able to do that? I don't know, but we're certainly going to try. It's a no-brainer to try and sign them. Hopefully, they want to stay here."

I really wish these threads about Charra vs Redden would stop already. The team wants both,the fans want both, and as long as they want to stay, and considering they both indicated on a few occasions that the Sens was their preferred destination, I'm sure they will be accomodated. They are both great Dmen who bring something completly different to the table. Their biggest assets to the team is that they compliment each other. Trying to compare them inevitably leads to an apple and oranges discussion about who is better at this or that. You cannot replace either one of them without suffering a downgrade.

Who's better and who would you rather keep is like asking who was better on the Habs...Savard or Robinson. I want them both and if the latest indications about the cap remaining the same or increasing next year are correct, the Sens should be able to make it happen. Then maybe we can put this debate to rest already.

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Old
12-12-2005, 12:40 PM
  #30
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Redden and Chara
Interesting debate and another reason to celebrate what a good team we have. IMO both are equally important to this team because they both do things that are so critical to the success of this team. Chara does the dirty work, defending the best offensive players, clearing the front of the net and chips in offensively. Redden is the finesse guy who does most of his checking with his stick and could be the best passing defenceman in the NHL and I too have noticed that this team does not break out of our zone as well without him. He is arguably one of the best offensive defencemen in the game today.
Phillips
Chara and Redden are both valuable to this team which is why I have said before that Phillips could and should be the guy to go with the emergence of Meszaros, Volchenkov, Pothier and Schubert if we have to lose a d-man. I would be surprised though if a deal was done that included Phillips before the deadline, my guess is that he will be dealt in the off season depending on re-signings. Sometimes players (Hossa) force a deal more so than management and Havlat, Schaefer and maybe Chara could force management to move them so the Sens do not completely lose their investment.
The Salary Cap
While I'm at it, I was once again flamed on this board for suggesting more than once that the cap could go up if, as I suspected people would return to see their game again after the lock out and most here said it would never happen and likely the cap would go down. Most people I talked to said it wouldn't happen because people were too upset by these greeding millionnaires and billionnaires. Now it seems league revenues are up and the cap could go up which means we may be in a position to keep most UFAs or the ones that matter most to the success of this team. What if the cap goes up this year and attendance goes down nect year? It could be difficult to sign players for longer than 2 or 3 yrs in future if this cap continues to go up and down especially in volatile markets.
2nd Line Centre
The one guy that I think would make the most impact on this team for a run at the cup is Doug Weight. He has the speed to keep up to this team, he has the experience, the success, grit and leadership to help out in the room and on the ice and his playing style fits best with the style of this team, hard and fast. Not only can he score but he can also set up goals and carry the puck and this team needs a 2nd goal scoring line to step up and take the pressure off the first line. Weight's reputation alone with eliviate some pressure from line 1 but I also think his acquisition will be the shot in the arm that this team will needs for a cup run more so than other less known centres.


Last edited by aragorn: 12-12-2005 at 12:52 PM.
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Old
12-12-2005, 03:36 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by discostu
I think that $13.5 over 3 years is an unreasonable target, now that it appears revenues, and hence the cap, is going up.
Oh, no no no......

Muckler cannot assume the cap is going up and base everything around an imaginary increase. I agree that it is going up, but we won't know by how much until after the season is over. And our key players have got to be signed LONG before that point.

This brings up two questions for y'all:

1. Do you think Redden and Chara should be paid more than Alfie?

2. Do you think Muckler is prepared to break the 4.5 million "ceiling" in order to retain Redden & Chara?

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12-12-2005, 03:39 PM
  #32
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Ohlund took a home-team cut, taking 3.5 per season for 4 years. I view Redden as a very similar player. Would he take a cut, or look to get what he is realisticly worth (4-5 million)?

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12-12-2005, 03:52 PM
  #33
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I think there is good will on all parts, as long as Muckler is fair, which he is. If the CAP goes to 42 then 4.5M per (13.5M) is not a bad deal at all. Could even go 14.5 with a 42 over 3 years.

This D could take this team deep for years. Redden, Chara, Phillips, Volchenkov, Mezsaros all bring something unique to the table - great teamwork too. Pothier is getting better; Schubert has so much potential. Then there is Malec and Lee.

Good vibs for a few years if we can keep them, and they want to stay.

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12-12-2005, 04:05 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtuzzi
Ohlund took a home-team cut, taking 3.5 per season for 4 years. I view Redden as a very similar player. Would he take a cut, or look to get what he is realisticly worth (4-5 million)?

If we could get Redden and Chara signed to twin 4 year 3.5 million (per season) deals I would cream myself. John Muckler would be my hero/idol for the rest of his days.

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Old
12-12-2005, 04:05 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caseus
Oh, no no no......

Muckler cannot assume the cap is going up and base everything around an imaginary increase. I agree that it is going up, but we won't know by how much until after the season is over. And our key players have got to be signed LONG before that point.

This brings up two questions for y'all:

1. Do you think Redden and Chara should be paid more than Alfie?

2. Do you think Muckler is prepared to break the 4.5 million "ceiling" in order to retain Redden & Chara?
If Muckler can't assume the cap is going up, why would Redden and Chara assume the cap is going to stay the same. It only hurts them if they do, and the indications are right now, that it will be going up, maybe substantially.

If you were in their shoes, would you just assume that there isn't a budget to pay you, when other people tell you differently.


As for making more money than Alfie, it gets much more complicated than just abiding by the Alfie cap. Excuse me while I go into full-on geek mode here:

Frederick Herzberg Motivation-Hygiene theory states that pay is not a motivator in and of itself. If you pay someone more than they are worth, they are not more likely to be loyal to the organization. However, if you pay someone less than they are worth, they will become de-motivated, and loyalty to the company will be lost.

Now, the question is, how do you measure what someone is worth? Based on equity theory, there are 4 ways employees (or players in this case) measure their worth.
Self-inside - What someone is worth if they worked in another part of the organization. Not relevant to this example
Self-outside - What someone would be worth in another organization. This applies to what they think is market rates. They won't know this until they hit the market, so, it isn't relevant until then. Up until that point, they estimate their value based on the remaining two factors.
Others-inside - What someone is worth based on what other, similar value people are worth within the organization. Alfie is the obvious comparison, and, both Redden and Chara would recognize that they are about equal to Alfie, in terms of value to this team.
Others-outside - This is the kicker, what someone is worth, compared to what other similar people are worth in other organizations. Here is where things become difficult. The comparisons of guys like Pronger, Neidermayer, etc. will be the benchmarks that both players will be using.

So, in order to keep the players motivated enough to stay, they need to feel they are making close to market rates. I think if the cap is sure to stay the same, you can convince both guys that both the Neidermayer and Pronger contracts are not valid comparisons, and that no contending team can really afford that type of contract. But, if they feel the cap is going up, this becomes a tough sell. They know the money is there, and that the team can still be retained.

It's a complex issue. A lot rests in the internal motivations of the players themselves. But, I think, if the cap does go up substantially, we will have to give up on the Alfie cap. We'll have to look at that deal as a steal, but recognize that it isn't an appropriate benchmark if we want to sign guys who have the option of signing elsewhere if they want. The good thing is, Alfie can't really ever be bitter about it his own deal. He's one of the guys that negotiated the 24% rollback.

Coincidentally, I can see this team using Alfie's pre-rollback amount as their artificial cap. That has has been the highest amount of money they have been willing to sign a player for.

I really should do some of my real work today.

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Old
12-12-2005, 04:27 PM
  #36
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There was so much talk of the cap going down pre-season and now that the fans have turned out in droves for the actual season talk now turns to the cap going up. How can any company properly plan long term (5 yrs) when their budget keeps going up and down? How do you sign players long term if there is a possiblity of the cap going down and the team not affording certain players in a yr or two?

It seems to me like the NHL has to commit to a longer term salary cap, say 3 to 5 yrs and determine what the cap will stay at for those yrs. They have to create long term stability for this league to prosper.

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12-12-2005, 04:29 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by discostu
If Muckler can't assume the cap is going up, why would Redden and Chara assume the cap is going to stay the same. It only hurts them if they do, and the indications are right now, that it will be going up, maybe substantially.
Can't argue with you there. Both Redden and Chara are better off waiting, unless Muckler is willing to make assumptions on the new cap amount.

Let's assume he is willing to gamble on a number. What sounds good....$42 million? Okay, that gives him $3 more million to play with. So we can bump Chara from the (rumoured) 4.5 million a year to 5.5 million, Redden from 4.5 million to 5 million, an extra million to Spezza, and half a million to Havlat (sorry man, injuries cost you).

What if he's wrong? What if the increase is only 1 million? Then our budget is blown and we have to trade core players. As a GM, he can't make assumptions. He has to assume the status quo and hope his players understand and are willing to sign for less than what they are worth on the open market.

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12-12-2005, 04:49 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caseus
What if he's wrong? What if the increase is only 1 million? Then our budget is blown and we have to trade core players. As a GM, he can't make assumptions. He has to assume the status quo and hope his players understand and are willing to sign for less than what they are worth on the open market.
As a GM, he has to make assumptions. That's the only way to manage, not just in the NHL, but, in any management position. True, he may be wrong, but, what is the consequences if he assume he doesn't have the budget, and it causes both Chara and Redden to walk, because their agents tell them they can get a lot more on the open market. It goes both ways. As a manager, you make your decisions based on the best and most reliable information you have available.

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Old
12-12-2005, 05:17 PM
  #39
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Oh yeah, who would you believe, the moderator with 4k posts or some newbie with less than 30?? Oh wait.... that's not a good argument, never mind....

Like everyone, I want us to keep the core of the team intact. Trade Varada, Phillips, Smoke if necessary, but sign Chara, Redden and Spezza. I'd rather Muckler didn't gamble with cap numbers, but I guess at this point I have to say he's been pretty frikken good at his job so I shouldn't doubt him.

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12-13-2005, 12:58 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by discostu
Coincidentally, I can see this team using Alfie's pre-rollback amount as their artificial cap. That has has been the highest amount of money they have been willing to sign a player for.
Or they might use Alfie's rolled-back amount, and adjust it proportional to the increase in cap. If the cap goes up 10% then the Alfie cap goes up 10%.

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